It's Official - Biggest Nino Ever - Killer La Nina to Follow

Bruce Krasting's picture

 

This morning NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9th. We hit a record - the current El Nino is the strongest in recorded history.

Before 2015 the largest recorded weekly reading of El Nino occurred during the week of November 26 in 1997. We passed that milestone last week. The data from 1997 - The El Nino index set a record of 2.8: (Link to data)

 

noaa1997

 

As of last week the Pacific Ocean in region 3.4 (where El Nino is measured) hit a new record of 3.0: (Link)

record

 

So another weather record has been set. What does it mean? In the very short term it means that there will be some hellacious weather in the US Pacific West/Texas in the next 90 days. It also means there will be a drought in Australia and Indonesia. Other parts of the globe will feel the consequences of the mega Nino.

However, there is another consequence of this year's El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year. A very rapid change in El Nino water temperatures will follow - in nine months we will have gone 180 degrees in the opposite direction and we will be dealing with a very strong La Nina.

 

The following plots the changes from El Nino (red) to La Nina (blue). Note the rapid change that occurred from November of 1997 to the fall of 1998. A very big La Nina followed the record El Nino:

The numbers:

1998

A chart of the 1998 event:

98chart

This chart from today's NOAA report is a synopsis of the computer forecasts for the for the collapsing El Nino and soon-to-be La Nina.

MODEL

What will the coming La Nina bring us? If history is the gauge, then we should be preparing for a record hurricane season in the summer/fall of 2016, and a return to the crushing droughts in the Pacific West. This is what NOAA reports for the hurricane season of 1998:

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-16 at 9.29.34 AM

 

In March of 2015 the Australian Meteorology department issued its first warning that a big El Nino was in our future. I wrote about it, and in the blog I made some predictions/recommendations of what it meant. Many of those things have now proven correct (Link). So I'll go out on a limb with some deep thoughts on the coming La Nina:

- If you live anywhere along the US coast from Virginia all the way to Texas (especially Florida) make some preparations.

-If you're thinking of putting your house up on stilts to avoid flood damage, do it now. By March of 2016 the "Coming La Nina" story will be in the media - too late to hire the construction crews to raise the house.

-To the extent possible increase flood and wind insurance protection.

-Short the stocks of those insurance companies that have large risk exposure to the US east coast.

-If you're thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year - there will be some bargains. If you're a seller - call the broker soon....

 

The La Nina will result in a resumption of drought conditions in the West. So consider:

-Enjoy the West Coast skiing this year - the next two years will suck.

-Don't buy a vegetable farm (or heaven forbid a grape grower) in California just yet.

-Pot growers in Cali (huge biz) are going to get squeezed - these growers use a ton of water.

I wonder about Phoenix and Las Vegas (more than SF or LA). These cities are highly dependent on the Colorado River/Lake Mead. In a year the headline will be; "Drought Returns - Lake Mead Level Resumes Drop". What might be the implications of that? I can't think of anything to be 'long' of in that scenario - including casinos.....

 

There is even a political side to this. Assume that we get the La Nina, and we have an over-sized hurricane season that brings with it significant damage. This would happen 30-60 days before the election. Would it make a difference at the ballot box? The Press reaction to a big storm would be:

"Super Storm Lolita - More Evidence of Climate Change!"

And what are the positions of some of the candidates?

Rubio:

“We're not going to make America a harder place to create jobs in order to pursue policies that will do absolutely nothing, nothing to change our climate.”

 

Trump:

"So I am not a believer, and I will, unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather."

 

Carson: (WTF?)

“I believe that God gave the creatures he made the ability to adapt to their environment. Because he’s very smart and he didn’t want to start over every 50 years.”

 

My fictional "Hurricane Lolita" would crash into Del Boca Vista - the worst damage would be to the Republican party.

 

501a91abb9695

 

 

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MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) Nov 18, 2015 1:14 PM

Doomed.  Doomed.  We're doomed!

SILVERGEDDON's picture

Well, I saw it coming.

When Nino and Nina lived in Mexico, they lived on non GMO corn tortillas and beans. Nino could work all day, and pump women all night. Nina looked like your best wet dream times 10, and could fuck you dry in under an hour.

Now, after coming to Murica and living on fast food and grocery store trash, Nino collects disability for breaking his ankle on the job, and drinks beer all day long.

Nina looks like a fucking beach ball with a tan after pumping out 9 kids, has a beaver looks like a wind tunnel, and her only love affair is with a bag of Doritos.

So, yeah, they are the biggest ever, all right.

the grateful unemployed's picture

either way Las Vegas will be a ghost town, El Nino is predicted to pass south of the Co River watershed basin. the city is drilling wells in Lake Mead. when the water stops the power stops. even a minor geological event, such as an earthquake could divert or temporarily block the flow of the river, or possibly open the plates underneath and allow water to drain down into the ground. LV doesnt have a lot of backup. all points south will take a huge hit, including refugees with mattresses strapped to the roof of their cars looking for shelter. its a disaster movie waiting to happen

venturen's picture

20 years of forecasting more bigger hurricanes....still waiting

Bruce Krasting's picture

There are many comments below that say, "Bullshit - this El Nino is not the biggest".

 

Those comments are not correct. This El Nino has now set the record for the highest ENSO reading in the 65 years that NOAA has been keeping records. This chart from Bloomberg today confirms that.

 

goldminor's picture

Here is a great explanation of what that really means...http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/17/is-the-current-el-nino-stronger-th...

The main point being made is that only region 3.4 of the 4 ENSO regions is above the top level of 1997/87. To the east of region 3.4, regions 3 and 1+2 are well below the high points of 1997/98. That makes all the difference in the world as to how this current ENSO will affect other parts of the global system. On top of that, there are still many unknowns about the totality of the effects of the ENSO process, and how other changing parameters from solar influences and ocean differences will inf;unec this current El Nino. A good example of that is Australia is normally supposed to experience drought during an El Nino. yet there has been quite a bit of rain over the last month despite this sizeable El Nino in region 3.4. That is just one example of anticipated forecasts not turning out the way one would think from past observations.

venturen's picture

so skiing will better in Cali this year...you know with the global warming and all?

goldminor's picture

A La Nina which arrives close to a solar minimum brings very heavy rains to Northern California and up to Canada. In my opinion, there is a high probability for a flood event in the winter of 2016/17 for Northern California and points north. As an example of what I am referring to, here is a list from the past of heavy rain/flood events during a La Nina winter whcih coincides with the arrival of a solar minimum, 1996/97 semi biblical rain event, 1984/85 moderately heavy rain, 1964/65 huge flood California to Canada, 1955/56 very heavy flood California to Canada, 1946/47 flood event California to Canada.

 

Iguanadon's picture

Wow, you folks really should learn to use the interweb... There were hurricanes Ivan and Jeanne in 1998 (as well as in 2004).  The writer didn't say Ivan and Jeanne were devastating storms in 1998, only that they existed.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1998.asp

DC Beastie Boy's picture

I remember 1997 it rained half the year even in AZ

webmatex's picture

So it's no longer only the British talk about the weather now?

In the 70's we were concerned by important man made events.

There were hundreds of HBomb tests in the atmosphere for decades, the destruction of the Amazon forest and it's species continues to this day, the advent of GM food covering large areas, the use of CFC's destroying the Ozone layer, a massive reduction of Oxygen in the atmoshphere compared with the small rise in CO2 emissions, Coal plants have been emitting mercury, uranium, thorium, arsenic, and other heavy metals into the air for centuries, Chernobile, Fukushima,  dead oceans, vanishing species, the use of herbicide and insecticide in agriculture, the vanishing bee's, and war, war, war.

Nothing was done about any of that stuff but carbon scares the pants off the petty minded sheep who would save us and the world from the deadly carbon.

The first and last time i will participated in this most idiotic of debates.

STOP.

 

joego1's picture

If the weather is really changing and warming then who is to say LA Nina comes back at all? What if el nino is the new permanent state?

Grouchy Marx's picture

Yes, climate is changing. It always does. It always has, for all geologic history.

And so, if we elect one party or the other, will they fix it? Can they fix it? Is it even broken?

The only thing for certain, is that the Dems will funnel more money to chicken-little researchers and try to stop me from using my woodstove to keep warm in the winter.

I think the author is interested in some of that research money, or in some way making some money off the whole thing.

Might as well spit into the wind. Driving a Prius will not save the world.

PlayMoney's picture

they can put a contraption on a smokestack in indiana, gather a few CO2 particles, badda bing global weather stops changing. ask Gore he will tell ya

Rhal's picture

Everyone praying for rain in California: please stop.

jbar's picture

The problem with this totally made up, BS post is that Hurricane Jeanne and Ivan happened in 2004 not 1998.

Gatos Locos's picture
Gatos Locos (not verified) jbar Nov 18, 2015 9:11 AM

Do a little research before you post. There were hurricanes named Jeanne and Ivan in 1998.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurricane_season

TRM's picture

No it's not. A big one but not at 1998 level yet. Region 3/4 is ahead but 4 and 1/2 are behind where 1998 was.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/17/is-the-current-el-nino-stronger-th...

ZombieHuntclub's picture

At what point are they no longer a little boy or little girl?

I propose they now be called el muchacho and la muchacha. Our puquito ones are all grown up. <sniff>

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Bruce has his trolls out downvoting everything that doesn't support the AGW argument. Even downvoted a stright-up quote from IPCC!

Pathetic globalist shills with cognitive dissonance. If they don't want to wake up, that's their choice, but they're bringing everybody down the road to hell with them.

History will point its finger and laugh. Schadenfreude all over those weak lemming dinks.

Roanman's picture

Can't somebody please find Bruce a job? There has to be something he can do that's more productive than turning out this drivel.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

bruce since ZH is keeping your thread up, it is time to ask:: still defending the criminal  management of solyndra??? I  cannot hold much you post as unbiased after that scam of 500 mil of tax monies,  with appropriate donations to obuma.

Bruce Krasting's picture

Yeah, okay, I accept that.

This was a tough one for me. I wrote that S would go bankrupt before it went bankrupt. Having done that successfully I got contacted by a senior officer of S who was willing to talk, provided I did not give his name, and I would report what he said.

 

I did that. And I took a ton of shit for it. You hold a grudge for 4 years now....

 

I was trying to be a writer. This was a 'big break' thing for me, at least I thought it might be. So I took a shot.

 

It backfired. What can I say?

bk

squid's picture

Oh brother..... Is that you Al?

The last boob, in a  long stream of boobs, that predicted massive hurricanes from the Unitversity or East Anglia's manipulated weather data has been wrong for ten-fifteen years running....here is yet another.

 

As a society, we're getting dumber, I'm certain of it. In the fifties and sixties if you had the nerve to even try to predict the weather people just laughed you out of the room. Back then they actually taught science and math in schools....not we believe any huckster with a new story.

 

Yah, yah, yah..unprecidented, rain, unprecidented storms, blah, blah, blah...

 

Sure mate.

 

Squid

darteaus's picture

When it comes to Climate Change, the answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind; the answer is blowing in the wind.

darteaus's picture

This article brought to you courtesy of the Texas board of Realtors.

Final Authority's picture

Any time I see temperature graphs without error bars, I know it's BS.  

 

Critical thinkers should consider a different view of the data from NOAA:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/17/is-the-current-el-nino-stronger-th...

crashguru's picture

Is "Bruce Krasting" a pseudonym for Al Gore?

surf0766's picture

WHO FUCKKING CARES !

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

and then there was that el Nino in the year 1462 that makes this year's a total cakewalk...that one was the most mind blowing ever, well, all the way back to the el Nino of 13,662BC....my gawd, that one was TRULY epic....

TheReplacement's picture

Isn't it a shame that we didn't learn from those previous fiascos?  I mean, how many times can we come back from weather induced extinction?

Burce for janitor 2016.

Dragon HAwk's picture

One nice thing about predicting the near future, is that you can be proven wrong or right in fairly short time,  plenty of time for a Bar bet, just write it down someplace safe.

kevinearick's picture

:)

variability feedback loop.

csmith's picture

Very tough call on the TIMING of a switch to La Nina. You may have the "what" correct, but the "when" is crazy hard. Count me skeptical on this part especially. I've saved your list of predictions for playback in early 2017. See you then.

redux2redux's picture

National Weather Service Announcement

'Hey at least we are right more often than the CIA...'

the grateful unemployed's picture

i am at ground zero for this years El Nino. i built a new drain in the backyard to carry off excess rainwater. i am not saving rainwater, if it rains here it also rains in the local reservoir. at the moment we are having below average temperatures, which is similar to two years ago, which was during the drought. the anomaly that most concerns me is the hurricane season in Mexico, which does not affect us very much. this last year a few storms did come north, is this a sign that the weather patterns are changing. what if California had a hurricane season similar to Florida's? we're not ready for that. we had record rainfall this summer, and the ocean was ten degrees warmer than normal. it may be that we have already had our El Nino effect. warm temperatures are consistent with low rainfall, typically so my best measure will be to compare the temperature this month with the rainfall this month. very cold but little rain, (followed by a warmer or less cold december) means more drought ahead. we don't have to have El Nino in order to return to normal rainfall levels and so far this feels like a more typical winter than any in the last ten years.

nofluer's picture

Ten years does not a pattern/trend make. and a couple of similar years is interesting, but not useful as a predictor of future trends.

Baa baa's picture

I agree with the more typical Winter weather part.

Obaminator's picture

Brucy baby...C'mon now...

Your picking and choosing Data, and also your not "boots on the ground" in the states immediately impacted by El Nino are you? Nope...

98 El Nino - I lived in Portland, and I visited the Oregon adn Wash Oceans since I was a wee little boy, since the eary 70's..98 was a crazy year, Oregon normally has green phytoplankton-heavy Ocean waters...in 98 the water was crystal clear...AND it was up to 75-deg F...rather than its normal near 60-deg summer temp. Fishermen caught Marlin and Tuna off the Oregon and Washington coasts...It was beautiful. Oh, and by the way...both states are fairing just fine after multiple Nino-Nina events.

Cali? Does anyone remember the Big Droght from the late 80's to mid 90's....then...TOO MUCH WATER...they dumped the reservoirs into the LA River basin because they couldnt store anymore...its CYCLICAL and has been for THOUSANDS of years...the thing is LA keeps letting more and more "People" in who are not from the US...those people have diferent standards of what they consider important. LA spends $$$$$$$$ on welfare for those people, instead of building bigger resevoirs to handle the larger population...they made their own bed. Dont feel bad at all...but L.A. can buy excess water from Arizona...we offered, but they dont have enough money because they pay "those" people too much WELFARE.

Now I live in Phoenix...got out of the PacNW cuz it rains too damned much...you dont know Jack about Phoenix do you...oh, we "USE" the colorado river water, but we have all sorts of other water sources here in Phoenix, especially this year. We actually take that CoRiv water and pump it straight down into our Auqifers here in the Valley...you didnt know that either did you? Why? Cuz we Can...we have more than enough water with the other 4 rivers that we manage that flow into the PHX area. Vegas - well, they are on their own...Mead is it for them.

As for the Lolita strom...and killing the Republicans...man dude...can yo be any more Biased and Vitril?

Screw the Republicans anyway...they turned their backs on true conservatism...see I CAN SAY THAT because im not just simply a 1-sider liberal hack...it appears you are jaded by your own Liberal Ideals...the same ones that will be chewing at your ankles in years to come.

Now...go to "Warm" Antarctica and have a nice sun-bath...I hear from folks just like you that its real-nice down there these days...let me know how many fingers and toes you loose in the process of visiting that "shrinking" ice sheet.

Dickweed Wang's picture

. . . . its CYCLICAL and has been for THOUSANDS of years . . .

 

Absolutely right!!!  The earth has gone from repeated warming and cooling episodes directly related to solar activity for millennia.

I am so sick and tired of hearing about how CO2 is a "pollutant" and that mankind is negatively effecting the weather on earth.  Put into context this is like an ant colony reshaping a mountain! 

I've said it before and I'll say it again . . . if or when TPTB remove ALL monetary issues from the "climate change" scam (i.e. carbon taxes, cap and trade, etc.) then there will be some semblance of reality to the issue (not much, but some).  As it is now the whole "climate change" scare is simply bullshit and is nothing more than a last gasp money grab by the "masters of the universe". 

And for all you haters out there that would call me a "denier" do the research yourselves and you will find that a plethora of highly qualified people state flat out that mankind is NOT the driver of climate change - THE SUN IS and always has been.

nofluer's picture

"The earth has gone from repeated warming and cooling episodes directly related to solar activity for millennia."

Back in the day when the IPCC was first setting up their scam, I remember reading how they set up the solar forcing number... As I recall, they had their "expert" estimate a number to use and he thought about it (NO empirical effort) and decided that it should be about 50%.

So the IPCC folk ran the numbers and...oops! No AGW!!! So they had their solar "expert" redo the solar forcing numbers and *poof* they suddenly became 25% instead of 50% and VIOLA they had AGW!!! WHOOPIE!!! And they've been in the scam business ever since.

PlayMoney's picture

Thats my bggest peeve too, CO2 a pollutant? Its a naturally occuring gas. And its ony .04% of the atmosphere. Commercial guys pump in extra CO2...plants like it...snacks.

 

If you took the money out of it, most of the zealots would go away. Did you know Gore is worth more than Romney now with his "green"? All the while a huge carbon emitter himself. 

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

CO2 is plant food. Agreed. People tend to conflate CO (carbon monoxide) with CO2 (carbon dioxide.) CO is toxic at 35 ppm.

Current CO2 levels are betw/ 380 and 410 ppm. The IPCC wants CO2 levels down to about 200 ppm; plants start to die at 150 ppm. Bill Gates wants CO2 at ZERO! Earth's historic low was 250 ppm and its high was over 7000 ppm.

Crops produce much smaller yields when CO2 is limited. Greenhouse levels are 800 ppm and higher. Weeds, however, don't respond as well as crops to increased CO2 and so remain manageable.

Say it with me, "Population reduction." Ehrlich's fraudulent book "The Population Bomb" still holds sway with those higher-ups who write the texts of climate agreements.

gmak's picture

Again, it depends on if you're comparing oranges to oranges, or if someone is throwing apples in the mix. (hint: The comparison is Oranges to Apples).

 

In a nutshell, the surface temperature is being taken from a particular area (NINO3.4) that is supposed to represent the characteristics of the El Nino - being the location deemed the 'strongest'. However, not all EL Nino's are the same. The 1997 / 98 El Nino was what is called an "EAST PACIFIC" El Nino, and it's strongest location was in a different area (NINO 5S 5N). The 1997/98 El Nino is unlike any before studied, and the current one is different from that one. The readings from NINO 5S 5N in 1997 1998 (strongest area) greatly exceed those of NINO 3.4 (strongest area) in the current El NINO.

 

Bottom line: Based on the 'strongest' temperature readings in 1997 /98 and today, the older El Nino could be considered to be bigger than the current one.  This means that all of that La Nina analysis is meaningless. 

Here is a reference with graphs and charts for those interested in more details.

 

Cheers.

 

Jack Burton's picture

This El Nino is different from past ones. The Arctic should be experiencing cold and the jet stream should be strengthening. Neither is happening due a heat overload in the Arctic. Tempertures are not falling as they would in a normal El Nino, and without that large temperature differential, the Jet Stream remains weak and wavy. So expect surprises.

La Nina? Well, since the Pacific has taken up massive excess heat for the last decade, I am doubtful that there are large cold ocean waters available to trigger massive La Nina. Even the Pacific deep waters have absorbed record heat, so an ocean turn over will not release cold pacfic waters to make a large La Nina.

Result is we do not know what will happen, this is unique and may hold strange things not part of normal patterns.

TheAnswerIs42's picture

Guess that's why the arctic sea ice extent is moving back to normal, eh?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png

 

This El Nino is different. It is much weaker to the east than the 97/98 El Nino.

Therefore it will have less of an effect on global weather patterns.

See this article by Bob Tisdale.

 

 

Jack Burton's picture

I am sorry, but you are totally wrong. Arctic sea ice volume is near record lows, and is on a decline slope towards Summer Zero in the not too distant future. Bob is simply another hack, who is wrong.

I don't know why people think Arctic Sea ice is recovering. That is for them to explain, the trend is down down down. The North West Passge is now viable and used by dozens of ships yearly. A decade ago that was simply a dream.

nofluer's picture

ROTFLMBO!!! Out of touch with reality much? And thanks for all the fish!