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U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Fall In October After 234% Surge in Q3

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U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Fall In October After 234% Surge in Q3

by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev

Total sales of U.S. Mint gold coins came in at 44,500 oz per 94,500 coins sold – including both Eagles and Buffalos. This marked a significant decline in sales y/y, with volume by weight down 49.7% y/y and the number of units sold down 33.7%. Average weight of coin sold was down 24.2% y/y to 0.4709 oz per coin.


Total Sales of US Mint Coins since 2006

As chart above indicates, October fall-off in demand came after the end of 3Q that saw total volume of coding gold sold by the U.S. Mint rising incredible 234% y/y (compared to 3Q 2014) by weight and 305% y/y in terms of number of units sold.

At a total of 471,000 oz sold over 934,500 units in 3Q 2015, last quarter was the best one since 2Q 2010 in terms of volume by weight sales and the best in history of the series (from 1Q 2006) in terms of number of coins sold.


Total Sales of US Mint Gold Eagles and Buffalo Bullion Coins since 2006

Not surprisingly, scale fall off in demand in October can be explained by the moderation in demand back to cyclical normal. As shown in the chart above, overall October sales figures came in below the period average for May 2013 through present. However, stripping out three main outlier peaks in demand, the average comes to 49,978 oz – closer to the October reading of 44,500 oz. In historical comparatives, demand for gold coins in October was 38th lowest by total weight and 56th lowest by coins counts for any month from January 2006 through present.

Another point worth making is seasonality. Over 2006-present horizon, October saw significant decline in demand for gold coins in seven out of 10 years, with insignificant changes m/m recorded in one month. In other words, October tends to be a more bearish month of U.S. Mint coins sales.

Final point worth making is that correlation between demand for U.S. Mint coins (by total oz weight) continued to show negative 12 months correlation with gold price. In October, this correlation stood at -0.58, slightly less in absolute value than in September (-0.59) and below -0.72 correlation in October 2014. Overall, negative correlation remained in every month from April 2014 on, suggesting stable demand interest from investors on foot of gold price declines.

Read the excellent research on US Mint gold coin sales in October by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev.

Editor’s NoteAs was seen in the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends Q3 2015 last week, low gold prices in the third quarter saw bargain hunters globally and particularly the U.S. accumulate far more gold bullion coins and bars than they did in any other quarter over the past five years.

According to the report released last Thursday, global gold demand rose 8 percent on-year to 1,121 tons in the third quarter, with the U.S. seeing a new surge in demand.

“There were significant gains in bar and coin demand in China and across Europe, but it was in the U.S. where we saw the most dramatic growth, with U.S. Mint Eagle sales reaching their highest level since the second quarter of 2010,” Alistair Hewitt, Head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council, told media.

Thus, the decline in U.S. Mint sales of gold coins in October was a natural consequence of a decline in the near record demand seen in Q3 and reflects the normal ebb and flow of demand for gold coins and bars.

Last week gold price fell to 5 year lows and weakness again saw canny buyers accumulate on the dip. Sales of U.S. Mint gold coins jumped the most in nearly three months. The 2015 $10 American Gold Eagles actually sold out.

Read more on the GoldCore.com blog

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DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1080.80, EUR 1013.60 and GBP 710.50 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1083.75, EUR 1006.60 and GBP 712.08 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)

GoldCore: Gold in USD - 5 years

Gold closed yesterday at 1083.20 a loss of $1.20 . Silver was also down slightly by $0.04 to close at $14.27. Platinum gained $7 to $863.

Gold is on the back foot this morning after declining for a thirteenth out of 14 sessions yesterday, albeit by a modest 0.1%. Gold saw safe haven demand push it to its highest in over a week yesterday in early trade, but failed to maintain those gains in U.S. hours as converted selling in the futures market capped gains and pushed prices marginally lower.

Sellers seemed determined to have gold close lower after the tragic events in Paris. A higher close would have led to increased safe haven demand due to growing concerns about the Eurozone and global economy.

Silver, platinum and palladium are a touch lower today. Palladium is down 1.6% at present, after managing to rise 2.2% yesterday.

IMPORTANT NEWS
Gold steady as risk aversion offsets dollar strength – Reuters
Gold Holds Drop as Investors Shift Focus Back to Fed From Paris – Bloomberg
Paulson Maintains Gold Stake as Prices Touch Five-Year Low – Bloomberg
Funds bail on gold miners in third-quarter as bullion prices tumble – Reuters
Gold Rallies After Paris Attacks as Fed Still Dominates Outlook – Bloomberg

IMPORTANT ANALYSIS
France swats aside EU budget rules in rearmament blitz – The Telegraph
The Bullish Case for Aussie Gold – GoldSeek
The biggest rip-off in fund management today – MoneyWeek
Another Bubble Bursts: Ultra Luxury London Home Prices Tumble 12% – ZeroHedge
London Mansion Prices Fall 11.5% as Home `Bubble’ May Have Burst – Bloomberg

Read more News and Commentary on GoldCore.com


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Wed, 11/18/2015 - 03:48 | 6808034 giggler321
giggler321's picture

Nothing to do with all the hype over a mega Shemitah then?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 00:47 | 6807804 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Well, F.F., did the US dollar  lose 50 percent of its value in the past ~5 years? Or 70+ percent if we compare it to silver? I bet on silver and gold, and I lost that bet, and lost everything.

As far as I can see, the Lords of Illusion, the Masters of the Universe, the Cartel, or whatever you want to call them, can do whatever they want, whenever they want, and no one can stop them. Or if anyone can, no one *will*. If God sees what's happening, He either doesn't care, or He's helping them.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 00:47 | 6807803 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Well, F.F., did the US dollar  lose 50 percent of its value in the past ~5 years? Or 70+ percent if we compare it to silver? I bet on silver and gold, and I lost that bet, and lost everything.

As far as I can see, the Lords of Illusion, the Masters of the Universe, the Cartel, or whatever you want to call them, can do whatever they want, whenever they want, and no one can stop them. Or if anyone can, no one *will*. If God sees what's happening, He either doesn't care, or He's helping them.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 00:35 | 6807777 kuro_neko
kuro_neko's picture

I've repeated numerous times Goldcore is a crook, he's just trying to find suckers to buy gold.

He's been posting everysingle day on ZH to buy gold since its been at 1900$. He hasn't apologized once to his readers who have followed his very ill advices.

On the other hand, he doesn't seem to be very much affected by the drop in prices. He can pay his internet bills no problem, he got enough brokerage fees from those who bought gold a few hundred bucks higher...

Gold can drop to 700$ and why not below. 700 is just a number.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 23:48 | 6807683 silverer
silverer's picture

Isn't it incredibly ironic, that to keep the Ponzi going with paper, the manipulators have to suppress the price of real money?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 21:58 | 6807326 ZombieHuntclub
ZombieHuntclub's picture

Every month. Rinse. Repeat. Until there is real news, this is just ssdd

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 21:51 | 6807298 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I am buying land in Arizona because when the volcano blows in Yellowstone, I'll own Oceanfront Property in Arizona, right?

 

Being RIGHT is a TERRIBLE reason for making a trade, because the markets, particularly these markets, make their own reality.  You are a bunch of rationalizing fearful fools looking for someone to validate your self destructive behavior.  If the system is about to go belly up, then buy gold, if not, you will continue to be victimized by the most powerful men in the world who will use all their power to screw you.  

It's amazing how being intelligent can prompt a human to act stupidly.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 21:46 | 6807276 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

It's one thing to know how to trade, it's another to embrace and accept that knowledge.  I feel very bad for those of use who haven't learned yet that markets are a game, they swing between auction market behavior and a game of three card monte.  On longer time frames, where they SHOULD be more observant of economic principals, they can be downright fraudulent.  It doesn't make logical sense, but there it is, and anyone not realizing this is lost.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 21:43 | 6807270 worbsid
worbsid's picture

I guess I am a contrarian because I just bought some more.  And of it goes down, I will buy some more.  We gave my daughter some silver for her birthday a few weeks ago.  Today she said, "You got to tell me when to sell this because I don't keep up with things like that."  I told her that when it was time to sell she would know it.  

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 10:04 | 6808583 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Good gift.  Also allows the conversation of why and what to do with them to happen naturally.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 23:38 | 6807654 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I like those Gold Buffalo coins. I wish they made the fractionals again. They were superb!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 20:32 | 6806925 Kagemusho
Kagemusho's picture

Oh, sure it's down, for now. Those who beat it down are probably popping champagne corks at GLD. That is, until the Russians and Chinese spring their trap. With China in the IMF, not to mention creating its own gold market, the dollar is going to take a beating. If the US votes no on including the RMB, China has no further reason to play nice. Especially after seeing what's been going on on the Au market today. The GLD manipulation is  getting way too blatant.

The Fed raising rates next month looks more and more like a blindfolded man with pistols in both hands pointing at both feet. Incompetent as the Fed has proven itself to be, it will only take one round to cripple themselves, and a large part of rhe planet's economy. Better just the leave the safeties on and weapons holstered. Assuming they have sufficient sense. I'm not posting any bets, though.

The underlying problems of insolvency, inflation, impending loss of petrodollar status and too many fiat dollars being chased by almost nobody on Earth remain and are growing. And festering. How long before other countries tire of the stink? We may not have long to wait. Putin's actions today are cleaning out ISIS like peroxide in a wound. Obama's CFR handlers  will not have any pawns on the ground in Syria very soon. All that's needed now is to have Russia and China announce simultaneously that the AIIB will issue its own gold-backed version of an SDR. Then it's game over.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 19:05 | 6806584 cpgone
cpgone's picture

Pssst .there are other countries in the world that are not buyng much gold. Like Chindia.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 19:04 | 6806578 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Everyone wants to own houses because houses are finite and hard to find!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:57 | 6806555 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

The US dollar is sound.... The dollar is better than gold ........../sarc off

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:53 | 6806541 Beowulf55
Beowulf55's picture

I'm waiting till they pay me to take it......../sarc off

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:49 | 6806525 Four chan
Four chan's picture

we have enough gold, said by nobody ever.

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