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Brazil GDP In "Free Fall Mode", Get Ready For "Terrible" Q3 Print, Analysts Warn
On Sunday in “Depression Tracker: Brazil Braces For Big Week Of Bad Data,” we warned that this was likely to be a rather harrowing week for anyone hoping to see a light at the end of the tunnel for the trainwreck that is Brazil’s collapsing economy.
Specifically, we previewed three data points, i) the IBC-Br monthly real GDP indicator, ii) IPCA-15 inflation, and iii) the IBGE October labor market report. The latter two prints are due tomorrow. We got the GDP tracker today. It was not pretty.
The the central bank’s output proxy showed real activity falling 0.5% m/m, the fourth straight month of declines. Here’s Goldman’s full breakdown:
In annual terms, the monthly indicator of activity declined by a large 6.1% yoy in September and on a 12-month cumulative sum basis, real GDP contracted 2.8% yoy, close to the lows reached in 3Q2009.
According to the IBC-Br, the statistical carry-over for growth in 2015 dipped to -3.6% (i.e., if the economy remains flat throughout 2015 at the September level real GDP will record a 3.6% contraction on average during the year).
According to the central monthly real GDP indicator, which has been an imperfect indicator of the National Accounts quarterly GDP, real GDP declined 1.4% QoQ sa during 3Q2015 (adding to the-2.1% qoq sa variation recorded during 2Q2015). Hence,real GDP has now declined by four consecutive quarters. Finally, the carry-over for 4Q real GDP is at -0.6%, that is, were GDP to remain flat during Oct-Dec at the September level, real GDP would decline 0.6% qoq sa during 4Q2015.
Barclays simply called it "free fall mode", noting that "today’s result is due to the strong contraction in industrial production (-1.3% m/m sa) and retail sales (-1.5% m/m sa)."

Finally, here's FT, quoting Capital Economics:
Economic activity fell by 6.2 per cent in September from the same period a year earlier.
That's the biggest year-on-year drop on record, according to Capital Economics, and points to a third quarter contraction of nearly 5 per cent.
Edward Glossop at Capital Economics said he expects Brazil's third quarter GDP numbers "to be terrible". He added:
"Conditions are unlikely to have improved much at the start of Q4. October's PMI data suggest that the slump in industry deepened, while the further deterioration in labour market conditions over the past couple of months suggests that consumption remained under pressure."
Q3 data is due on December 1.
Bear in mind that this comes against a backdrop of worsening inflation. As we noted on Sunday, Goldman sees IPCA-15 inflation coming in at 0.87%. The implication: inflation would print somewhere in the neighborhood of 10.3% y/y (the worst in more than 10 years) and you when you put that together with everything noted above you get a stagflationary nightmare.
Truthfully, this is an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions and it just keeps getting worse. Until now, Goldman's Alberto Ramos has been the undisputed king when it comes to producing lists of the country's economic problems that are so long they induce riotous laughter. Well watch out Alberto, BofAML's David Beker may be coming for your spot:
Leading activity indicators are persistently posting negative prints throughout the year, despite already being at record low levels, corroborating our call for a 3.3% yoy contraction in 2015. Tightened credit markets, high household indebtedness level, rising inflation and the ongoing labor market loosening should continue to drive purchasing power and confidence levels down, preventing a rebound in the near term. Accordingly, industrial production declined 10.9% yoy in September, posting the 19th consecutive negative print and returning to production levels from a decade ago. At the same time, retail sales contracted for the sixth time in a row in year-over-year terms, reaching a negative 6.2% yoy print. All in, these results indicate that activity indicators should continue to decline next year, reflecting a deeper and longer economic recession, with economic activity only starting to recover in late 2016.

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What they need is moar crony-socialism and loans!
It's just gotta work at some point!!! ;-)
I see cheap ass at the horizon. Lots of it !!!
http://www.thepornster.com/video/468/brazilian-prostitute-fucked-in-the-ass
You are violating my safe space.
Does pornster.com have a video entitled Self righteous ebony babe gets banged up the poop shoot by college football team?
Philo Beddoe you're in luck, but with a "minor" detail:
Self righteous ebony babe gets banged up the poop shoot by REDNECK nigh-school football team: [Don't click if you're a righteous prick]
Or a normal human being.
You've landed on the wrong website. This is not Haaretz.
Go fuck your kosher goat.
that was educational
The general public don’t’ understand the essence of ism.
Socialism is capitalism for the public.
Capitalism is socialism for the rich.
I read that the pentagon is investing lots of money at the Brazilian officers/military.
Coup D’état 2.0 coming soon.
Divide the stupid and you will conquer. Wonder if the youth in Brazil gets.
Probably not. They are waiting for jesus to arrive in a horse with wings. I kid you not.
Jesus will arrive before an honest government ever does.
Socialism without capitalism is communism.
Capitalism without socialism is fascism.
“Communism is super capitalism.” — MEFOBILLS
Russia communism vis-à-vis US state socialist and/or US state capitalism are the same. Matter of minor adjustments.
American were always dependent on the state. But they were brainwashed believing that they were not. US corporations are totally dependent on state capitalism. Most tech graduates could not make rent is wasn’t for the state. Private sector would never support them.
Liberals (Chris Hedges as an example) believe in government involvement.
Socialists and libertarians do not believe in government. Socialists are more group oriented. Libertarians more individualists.
Fascism you will see when top down management (communism, state-socialism, and state-capitalism) fails. When pride and wealth are gone. You won’t see fascism in 3 world. Nationalism and fascism go hand in hand.
Since you like to define people, let's start with one word.
Liberal.
It doesn't really mean what you think it means. I think I'm about the most liberal person I know. If you were to ask me if I think people should be inhibited from doing the things they want to do, assuming no harm comes to others, my opinion is that they should not. I happen to believe in the least government interference possible. Some call that libertarianism. Liberal. Libertarian. Libertarianism. Funny how they share the same root.
Chris Hedges is something. If he believes in more government involvement then he is most certainly not liberal. He would be an anti-liberal or illiberal. Assign the political spectrum designation that fits his tactics.
Words have meanings. We need to use them appropriately. If we cannot even agree to use the correct definitions then there is no hope that we can live side by each under a just rule of law and in harmony. I, for one, refuse to call people who are authoritarian by the word liberal. It is a disgrace to my language.
Agree.
Words are constantly misused. That’s why I try to substantiating to avoid confusions.
My believe is that Hedges don’t think society can function well without government. Chomsky believe it can. Chomsky doesn’t want any government at all. All issues need to be solved locally. Workers and artisans own their production and labor.
That makes Hedges a liberal. And Chomsky a libertarian socialist.
To clear my biases, I think Hedges is right.
Unfortunately, both don’t address the issue of ‘Private’ money and all the corruption and inequalities it causes.
Aint none of them gonna ever work without the strict rule of liberal law applied equally from top to bottom. If you don't apply it to the top then don't bother applying it to the bottom.
I think you've got your ism's mixed up but whatever, if I were you I'd stay as far away from the Olympic "festivities" as possible.
There's going to be a lot of capitalists trying to make money off the tourists and a lot of socialists trying to stop them from making it, you could get caught in the crossfire ;-)
To clear things up, lets get the dictionary...
Capitalism = "an economic and political system in which a country's trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit, rather than by the state."
Socialism = "a political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole."
In order to have Fascism you need to mix capitalism and socialism.
Capitalism is when everything is for profit. Everything is for sale.
Socialism is share.
Fascism is when capitalism fails. See my post above.
Well no, everything is not for a profit or for sale to a capitalist, however a socialist is always for sale to the highest bidder.
You need to think about that the next time someone offers you Faaarrreee! shit. There is always a price you will pay ;-)
Not quite right. State capitalist are motivated by profit. By accumulation of wealth. US corporations, banks, big-farms, and financials are good examples.
State socialist are more power driven. They are not as well compensated as state capitalist. Unless they change sides. Politicians, academia, and military are good examples of state socialist.
Anyway, as Americans are waking up and seeing that America private sector can no longer supply jobs, and our debt money system are no longer available to most of them, Americans will become even more so dependent on the state for survival.
So, prepare for a permanent war economy, because I don't see the state competing with the private sector for who can produce a better tooth paste.
"State capitalist are motivated by profit. By accumulation of wealth. US corporations, banks, big-farms, and financials are good examples.
State socialist are more power driven. They are not as well compensated as state capitalist."
You've just described crony-socialists as there is no such thing as a "state capitalist". A real capitalist doesn't need the state to survive and thrive, in fact wants less state interference not more, always.
Show me the "capitalist" who begs the state for moar regulation, moar licensing, fee's, paperwork, taxes, bans, prohibitions and red tape and I'll show you the enemy within ;-)
I just described our actual forms of government and capitalism.
With, or without the cronies.
And I say again, you can't have crony without the state.
I think of fascism as socialism with a long leash and communism as socialism with a short leash. Either way, you are their bitch so sit Ubu, SIT!
Nice Avatar.
Must have gone through the same paint place I mistakenly drove into.
When I get the proper removal shit, I'll contact you.
There's truth in your comments. To clarify Brazil, it is one of the most corporatist economies in the world. Corporatism is state capitalism practiced by socialists. Big money buys politicians to pass protection laws, import taxes which are so complex few people understand them and many intl companies don't even bother to sell to Brazil. And now the Petrobrás scandal which allegedly goes right to the office of Rousseff and her crony PT which is little less than communists. Brazilian politicals are in the pockets of big money in return for protection. Financial corruption is endemic/systemic.
That is Brazil. It has very little to do with free market capitalism. There is very little genuine price discovery or anything else.
Economically speaking, Brazil is a fascist country.
Falling oil prices are good for the economy though, because they said so.
Olympics in Brazil? Bad idea! Really gonna be a mass police state event. Otherwise all hell will break loose. When you got nothing to lose, you lose it. And Brazil has plenty big slums, growing by the day.
I predict the Rio Olympics will wander a very long way from the Olympic ideal.
But if Rio doesn't end the quadrennial shit show, Tokyo 2020 will.
Brazil has beautiful women. Nothing else.
so basically it's like the exact negative of Wal-Mart
I'm just tired of all this messed up crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igPcaVfqXAk
Print moar bonds Brasil, Yellen will buy them.
I read that as 'Print moar blondes Brasil'. Damn ZH has me thinking of sexy women every time they post an article on this damn country now.
Long blondes.
A couple of random thoughts on this:
First, I really look forward to bad news from Brazil more than any other place on Earth. Can't understand why.
Second, I am always struck by how fragile modern societies are. Rack up a 2 or 3 % drain in your personal life and you'll cut out steak night and make it through. Do the same thing on a national, regional, or global scale, and it's suddenly Mother Hubbard time where everything moves swiftly towards total freeze-up.
Finally, Just-in-time inventory is going to be the death of us. Commerce has become a bloodstream. If it ceases to move for even a short period of time, the patient dies. Everything we do anymore is all about keeping the cash flow going.
Sometimes the old ways are much better than the new, but people make the error of equating technological advance as man evolving just as the arrogant believe they are superior because they have titles and accolades from the same title holders, both are either an illusion or perhaps more like a delusion. Mankind is devolving and that is pretty obvious; just as the LORD told us from the beginning.
Not that technology is bad; it is the way mankind abuses it to hurt his fellow man and it grows worse as the love of people grows dimmer; again as we were forewarned and is now.
Thanks for the Brazil Hottie clickbait Tylers. Otherwise, who cares.
with economic activity only starting to recover in late 2016. - END
Explain what "recover" means; like the bleeding slows or the patient is dead?
Rapid job growth looming for people looking to scoop fecal matter out of the water sources prior to the Olympics. So they got that going.
Is that seasonally adjusted?
I just knew that dude Eke Batista was top tick.
That XO family of companies pyramid scheme and the Lamborghini on display in his bathroom - I knew we were close.
So when does the Bolshevik whore Dilma get charged?
They should start counting hookers and blow for GDP like the EU already does.
Please add more pictures of those Brazilian women. Thank you.
she might just as easily be a transexual-that is their main export i think
The women of Sou5h America are unbelievably Beautiful. Brazil is good, bu Colombian women are probably the best I have seen. I am happily married and have been for a long time, but hey, a guy can still enjoy scenery right?
Brazilian economy will deteriorite, so? Please tell me where it will not? Some regions here are amazing, water and food security, war security (if not alla oout WW), amazing nature, good energy.. amazing women, too ..mmmm)). Can not go wrong with life hedge property here. Discover Santa Catarina in Brazil ; http://visa4brazil.com/