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Fed Minutes Preview: Is The FOMC As Hawkish As It Sounded In October?
Well, we’re less than one hour away from the release of the October Fed minutes. Who’s excited?
Despite the fact that the October NFP print came after the FOMC meeting, market “bird watchers” will still be keen on parsing every last word for hints around what the very “data dependent” Fed may or may not announce next month.
More specifically, it will be interesting to see if the minutes confirm the notion that Janet Yellen is leaning hawkish (to the extent that we can call a symbolic 25 bps hike “hawkish”) and whether the statement might have come across as more committal than the Fed actually is vis-a-vis a 2015 liftoff.
For their part, Deutsche Bank thinks the market may have read too much into the October statement. “Remember that the hawkishness of the statement that followed that meeting was the start of a big swing in December liftoff expectations. In fact, prior to that meeting December hike expectations were sitting at around 35%, before rising to 50% or so immediately after the statement. Currently we’re sitting at 66% which is just shy of the 69% high point earlier this month,” Deutsche notes, adding that the minutes could be “more balanced and much less committed to a December hike than what was inferred from the October communiqué.”
And to the extent the committee cares about data (as opposed to more “important” things like China, EM, terrorism, and, critically, weather), Deutsche also notes that “there is a lot of data left between now and the December 15th/16th meeting (including the November payrolls number) and while the latest employment report was encouraging, our colleagues note that growth and inflation numbers could be slipping given the latest retail sales and import price figures.”
Traders will likely also be interested to see if it's possible to discover anything about the trajectory of rates once the Fed does finally take the plunge. For reference, here's Goldman's best guess as delineated earlier this month in a note outlining the expected "flight path":
Finally, the minutes will be scrutinized for any signs of disagreement, divergence, or fist fights in an effort to determine how united the committee is around the commitment to start the normalization process (or not).
Of course this is all just speculation. We'll get the official interpretation from Jon Hilsenrath about 45 seconds after the minutes hit the wires.
You know the drill: watch USD, watch USTs, take whatever stocks do with a grain of salt, and don't forget to laugh...
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Me scared...
Who put a wig on the rat? ;-)
Looney
Boris is compose Limrick on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/BorisAlatovkrap
Fed again is make chatter
Market condition is not matter
Rate is not rise
No big surprise
Bankster is only get fat because that is essence of all action of federal reserve and protectionist agenda on behalf of bankster family of Rothschild, Loeb, Kuhn, and Rockerfeller
All during Great Depression 2.0 there’s only thing for sure when it gets this slow at work another QE is coming!
Did Mad Magazine do anything with this yet?
Janet Yellen likes the bird nest munching NIRP Policy.
The bread isn't too bad, but the circus needs some better script writers and acts.
No spoon motherfuckers.
There's bread?
THEY.WILL.NEVER.RAISE.RATES.
So what if they raise it to 0,25%, it's still meaningless.
If the economy can't even bear that, America is over, done with.
Rates need to be at 4 to 5% AT LEAST to make a difference.
So all this mumbo jumbo about rate raises and crap, it's just theater to show the world how brave America is...
In a normal situation, American rates would be at 10 to 12%. And as long as they don't, we don't have price discovery and everything remains fixed.
It's all a farce.
The money printing machine has been on overdrive for a decade. The creation of debt/money and dollars/bonds must continue to increase or else the system locks up.
The kicker is the diminishing returns of such. But until that fateful day the media/government will lie about UE and other stats and keep priming the pockets of the monied elite.
Any guess as to how many have seen the minutes since the meeting a month ago?
Bwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhaaaaa!
We have not needed to see the minutes for ages. We all know the drill by now.
Buy the rumour, sell the news.
That's old school thinking. In today's market one is best served with buy the rumor buy the news.
Buy every day then go away.
Well, the dollar is almost at parity with the Euro, a 25% increase so if they want to fuck it up even more the dollar will just get stronger and whatever exports America has left will be priced out.
Only The Fed would call an indiscernable incline a 'lift-off'. *stares blankly at Janet who stares blankly back
Creepy Monkey Circus.
Federal Reserve antics
He's not creepy at all! I WANT ONE!! and he's a baboon not a monkey...
I think the prudent thing to do is to keep interest rates super low so baby boomers (the wealthiest generation in history) live with extreme uncertainty and are terrified of spending money on anything.
Jekyll island debased currency. Oops.
VIX Spike, Leak?????
wholy dollar spike
they're looking at crude oil this week, and it doesn't look good. there is no bottom in sight for energy, no hike.
All eyes on the FED...
be better if it was all Gun Scopes....
It'll take a few minutes for the algos to analyze ...