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FOMC Minutes Show Fed Is All-In For December Rate Hike (But Depends On Data)
With everything red since the October 28th "hawkish" FOMC meeting - which greenlit a December rate hike and convinced the world that everything is awesome in America (well why else would The 'smart' Fed raise rates?) - today's minutes suggest an FOMC that is perhaps not quite as "whatever it takes" committed to a December liftoff...
- *FOMC MEMBERS WANTED TO CONVEY DEC. LIFTOFF MAY BE APPROPRIATE
- *SOME FED OFFICIALS: UNLIKELY LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET BY DEC.
- *COUPLE ON FOMC CONCERNED WORDING CHANGE TOO STRONG A DEC SIGNAL
But bear in mind there is a lot of data between now and December 16th (including payrolls) and what if stocks drop?
And not everyone is gung-ho...
- *FOMC MEMBERS OPEN TO DEC. LIFTOFF BARRING UNANTICIPATED SHOCKS
- *MOST FED OFFICIALS SAID LIFTOFF CONDITIONS COULD BE MET BY DEC.
- *COUPLE ON FOMC CONCERNED WORDING CHANGE TOO STRONG A DEC SIGNAL
- *ALMOST ALL ON FOMC AGREED ON NEED TO ASSESS LABOR MKT STRENGTH
- *FED OFFICIALS SAID ACTUAL LIFTOFF DECISION TO DEPEND ON DATA
- *SEVERAL FED OFFICIALS SAID DOWNSIDE RISKS TO OUTLOOK REMAINED
Pre-Minutes: 68% rate-hike odds, S&P Futs 2064, 10Y 2.28%, EURUSD 1.0640, Gold $1070, WTI $40.45
Bear in mind that The Fed's new man from Dallas Kaplan hinted earlier:
- *KAPLAN: ZERO-RATE FOR TOO LONG CAUSES IMBALANCES, DISTORTIONS
- *KAPLAN: FIRST RATE INCREASE HAS BECOME `PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER'
Everything red post-FOMC... even stocks (for now) as commodities get crushed...
As rate hike odd soared...
Despite weakness in macro and micro data...
* * *
Key sections:
Hike in December... unless the S&P500, er data changes.
Some participants thought that the conditions for beginning the policy normalization process had already been met. Most participants anticipated that, based on their assessment of the current economic situ-ation and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, these conditions could well be met by the time of the next meeting. Nonetheless, they emphasized that the actual decision would depend on the implications for the medium-term economic outlook of the data received over the upcoming intermeeting period. Some others, however, judged it unlikely that the information available by the December meeting would warrant raising the target range for the federal funds rate at that meeting.
The Fed's 102,345th mandate: Chinese unemployment, and of course risk management, i.e., the S&P 500:
Several participants indicated that, despite lessening concerns about the implications of recent global economic and financial developments for domestic economic ac-tivity and inflation, appreciable downside risks to the outlook remained. They were concerned about a poten-tial loss of momentum in the economy and the associ-ated possibility that inflation might fail to increase as ex-pected. Such concerns might suggest that the initiation of the normalization process may not yet be warranted. They also noted uncertainty about whether economic growth was robust enough to withstand potential adverse shocks, given the limited ability of monetary policy to offset such shocks when the federal funds rate is near its effective lower bound, and concern that the begin-ning of policy normalization might be associated with an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions. They believed that in these circumstances, risk-management considerations called for a cautious approach. They judged it appropriate to wait for additional information providing evidence of further improvement in the labor market and increasing their confidence that inflation was on a path to return to 2 percent over the medium term before raising the target range for the federal funds rate. In addition, a couple of participants cited concerns that a premature tightening might damage the credibility of the Committee’s inflation objective if inflation stayed be-low 2 percent for a prolonged period.
And the Fed's latest forward guidance: the inclusion of the language that it "may very well become appropriate" to hike in December... barring no "unanticipated shocks"
In its postmeeting statement, rather than framing its near-term policy path in terms of how long to maintain the current target range, the Committee decided to indi-cate that, in determining whether it would be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, it would assess both realized and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent in-flation. Members emphasized that this change was intended to convey the sense that, while no decision had been made, it may well become appropriate to initiate the normalization process at the next meeting, provided that unanticipated shocks do not adversely affect the economic outlook and that incoming data support the expectation that labor market conditions will continue to improve and that inflation will return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.
Full Statement below (link)
Charts: Bloomberg
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I'm planning on taking a dump this afternoon, but only if I get cramps and gas...
Here’s what actually happens during the FOMC meetings – the Chairman sticks a finger up his/her ass, sniffs it, lets everybody else around the table sniff it too and… they decide not to raise rates. ;-)
Looney
What!!
I was told their shit doesn't stink!
Well, that's just it. The day their shit DOES stink is the day they will raise rates!
bwahahahahahahahahahaha
Boris is compose Limrick on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/BorisAlatovkrap
Fed again is make chatter
Market condition is not matter
Rate is not rise
No big surprise
Bankster is only get fat because that is essence of all action of federal reserve and protectionist agenda on behalf of bankster family of Rothschild, Loeb, Kuhn, and Rockerfeller
<<<rate hike going to happen
<<<rate hike not going to happen
I think not.
<< Chance that any newz from the Fed will be stawk friendly and gold unfriendly
<< Chance that when Janet flaps her diseased gums gold will go up and stawks down
Simple the fed raises rates, the markets and economy crashes, and in the face of that crisis the Fed gets the political backing to try some really crazy monetary policy, like this, or this. Never let a good crisis go to waste after all.
They have to keep the rate increase dart in the quiver for when Billary needs a saving distraction to ensure her annointment. Not time yet, maybe next meeting.
Is that a noose around Haldanes' neck in the pic?
Your poop rate will be negative. You will also have increasing cramps and gas. But you will tell all of your co-workers everything is fine, no matter how much pain you are in. In the end...we all crap our pants.
thats why the fed needs "Depends"...
more science to it than that
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fed_dots.png
*Safe for work
All I hear is "lift off". Where do they come up with this shit?
The last FED rate hike was in June 2006.
`PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER'
LIFT OFF, LIFT OFF, WE HAVE A LIFT OFF
BUY BUY BUY ITS A RECOVERY
The last time I heard "lift off" used in this context was on January 28th 1986.
so that's bullish right?
Either way stocks must go up. Options expire this friday and all shorts or put holders must be crushed.
bond market not budging ... 1. already made its move up from 2.00% or is 2. calling BS coming down from 2.375
<--- NO RATE HIKE
<--- RATE HIKE
The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside
^^^
this line from their statement. algos not buying rate hike so they will buy SPY, QQQ, and DIA instead
What a farce
There is not going to be a hike (ever)
10 yr UST unchanged but the DOW up 200pts. Mmmkay.
Baby seals everywhere are rejoicing that VIX now gets the club.
I wonder how much money it costs to organise this show month after month where nobody gives a fuck
of course stawks r up everytime the fed speaks or sends out speech via words stawks have to spike no matter wat.
all of last weeks losses wiped away just like that in the past 2 days.
FUNDERMENTALLLLSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA
Never going to raise rates. Why did I ever think they would do the right thing. They never do.
You must have noticed that it is a triple buy:
1) actual FED metting and annoncement
2) commentds by useless FED officials
3) useless FED meeting notes
In all these events, market would react violently upwards.
Bullish, either way.
We have four economies to consider.
1. Bank economy.. They don't care anymore. They already stole all the money and get as much as they want. Rates really don't matter.
2. The facade economy. This is the bullcrap from CNBC and propped inducies. This is all that is visible and can be managed.
3. The real economy. It has been dead for almost a decade. It doesn't matter.
4. The welfare economy. As long as we keep paying them off, rates don't matter.
Conclusion, rates don't matter anymore. They used to matter to banks, which in a real banking system affected the rest of the economy. Now there are other ways to gift money to the banks. And interbanking rates have no longer effect on Treasuries, as they fall into category 2 manipulation.
Very true.
The Fed - like our electoral politics - is now part of the "Entertainment Department" of the Military/Industrial Complex.
a skilled juggler can keep those 4 balls in the air for a long fucking time
I assume most zh=ers believe there's some sort of ppt(s?) out there. I wonder if they've been given orders to not just pp but to push all-in & maintain stability (even modest upward trend) through the dec fed mtg so they CAN liftoff? yeah, tinfoil hats & all but given everything that's been proven beyond reasonable doubt over last 7 yrs is it really much of a stretch to think they'd do that at this point?
In the middle of December
It's nice to remember
That you sold in May
And went away
that will show ISIS whos boss
Again: No rate hike, ever.
Fed rate hike? IT'S.ALL.LIES.!
fucking hilarious, they will squeeze every drop of goyim blood from the middle class while pretending to strongly consider raising rates!
So we’ve got all the usual suspects out there calling for a rate rise, Yeah, do it, please do it, please do it. These imbeci**s obviously don’t know sh** from cl*y. Do we have to put up with this crap for another month? NO WE DO NOT HAVE TO. We need to tell them (“THEM”) to “DO IT” no more “DATA SIGNALS”. The last time the markets gave the FED data signals the ass fell out of the markets and they S*** themselves.
If the FED raises interest rates it will strengthen the already strong DOLLAR and strangle your exports, thus contracting your economy and sending it into a DEPRESSION. The U.S. has wonderful numbers, What is the score now, About 60% on food stamps, (whatever that is). Sounds like a socialist utopia HEH, HEH, HEH. In Australia it is called the New Start Allowance. We in AUSTRALIA call it the No Start Allowance because it is just a way to hide the true unemployed and give them a subsistence allowance and keep violence off the streets. My sympathies to all of you in the U.S.A. who believed in the “DREAM” of home ownership and independence.
To anyone who would like to get out of this PONZI scheme there must be a precious metals store nearby.
There is a choice of keeping your life’s labour in airy fairy paper (“PET PAPER”) in which most of the thieves have told you they want to steal (through inflation) at least 2% of your wealth from you.
– If there is deflation you get to keep most of your work (value), If there is the thieves inflation, they get to skim the 2% or whatever off the top, DO NOT FORGET THAT “THEY” CAN TURN ON THE SPIGGOTS TO 10% OR 20% OR WHATEVER and just steal that amount of your life’s work from you.
Or you can convert your excess labour into HARD OBJECTS,
LAND, (can be taxed),
BUILDINGS, (can be taxed),
CARS, (can be taxed and subject to depreciated value),
ART OBJECTS, (subject to personal preferences),
BUSINESSES, (usually valued in (“PET PAPER”) and subject to the honesty of management, ETC.) YEAH, RIGHT. We know all about that don’t we?
Getting back to the difference between “PET ROCKS” and “PET PAPER” and now – wait for it – “PET DIGITALS”. I nearly p****d myself when I heard you can give up your life’s work to (invest) in “PET DIGITALS” HEH, HEH, HEH. _YEAH RIGHT.
Give me a break. Do you think I’m a complete F*** W***.
As far as investing in “PET ROCKS” or “PET PAPER” or “PET DIGITALS”, maybe you should ask the _Indians, Chinese, Russians, Germans (sorry you can have your GOLD back in ??? years) _because I am not licensed to give investment advice.
Best to you all _JOHNLGALT