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Housing Starts Plunge To 7-Month Lows As Rental Units Tumble
With new and pending sales tumbling and lumber prices down, yesterday's drop in homebuilders sentiment - from 10 year highs! - appears justified entirely now as Housing Starts collapsed 11% in October to the weakest level since March. This is the biggest miss (and MoM drop) since Feb. Multi-family unit starts plunged 25.5% MoM as single-family dropped just 2.5%. Starts in The West and South plunged as The Midwest saw a 30.8% collapse in housing completions. Building Permits rose 4.1% after tumbling 4.8% in September but SAAR remains notably below the Q2 cycle peak levels (1.337mm) at around 1.15mm homes (with multi-family permits rising 6.8% MoM).
Weakest Starts print since March...
Driven by a plunge in Multi-Family units...
Is this where it is heading? If Permits are so bullish, why are lumber prices still in freefall?
Charts: bloomberg
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Warm weather?
Get Long Basements. The New Housing Normal
I got an idea! Let's all hold hands and sing "Let's Raise Rates" to the tune of a funeral dirge
That's the only reason I bought my house! It has a finished basement apartment with kitchen, bathroom and two beds. The new house of the future!
Its worse than you think. In any area with snow, builders pull permits for foundation starts for all projects through the winter usually in october. For october to be down is hair-pullin time.
Homes in this area sell really fast. Prior to the Bush Economic Collapse, they wouldn't even bother putting up the "For Sale" sign as the Realtors had buyers in waiting.
That crazyness hasn't returned, but they still typically sell in less than a month. There are few "affordable" houses around here, most require an "upper middle class" paycheck. An "affordable" house in a prime spot, great condition and priced right has had the sign up for 2 months now...no action..bad omen.
Once Obama sets up the pipeline for "Syrians" to move from the Middle East to the American heartland, demand for rental apartments will pick up, especially two bedroom apartments which have the space to store Kalashnikovs and suicide vests.
Logged in just to upvote you :)
They will get government housing.
Appparently we have almost full employment (official unemployment is 5%) and so no workers available to create more housing. And why create rental units when tents are renting for $1000 a month?
Everything is great in the US economy. Not a hint of inflation except for tents. Oil and Gold will soon be free.
Tent rents for $1,000 per month in California's Silicon Valleyhttp://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/tent-rents-1k-month-silicon-val...
Obama, BLS, and Federal Reserve perpetual grandiose soundbites of recovering economic policy.
Lumber prices are probably still in freefall because if you look at a chart of fax machine, printer, and copier sales it would probably look alot like the lumber price chart.
Family member works for a large Corp...VERY RESTRICTIVE about printing/copying anything...they have gone all digital and they MEAN IT!...His floor has a 150 people with only 2 printers and no copier...and permission is required to print.
Companies that still print and mail stuff most likely have a geezer customer base.
About those order taking kiosks at food joints...all I can say is KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER BASE...I go to Sams Club and there will be a LONG line of people in the checkout lane featuring a SLOW live person...while the "Do it yourself" check out line is empty or maybe 1 or 2 people in line.
If your customer base isn't under 40 years old, "do it yourself" is going to kill your sales.
Realtors should keep that in mind.
is this the wonderful news that spiked the futures??.....anyone know wtf goes on anymore??....wish more people would come out and admit that they know absolutely nothing about these disconnected times.
hey, i'm in the midwest and my property went up 10 percent conservativly.
flipping homes is in vogue again.
have we all seen this show b/4, bubblenomics courtesy of da fed?
so what is it? bubble top or beginning of sumting bigger yet that 06 top?
average price has topped the top. ha!
what is it, just asking, ha again...
asking "where are all the buyers?"
haves and have nots.
my guess is we are running out of buyers of the dream...
They have tried everything except bringing jobs back to the US. There is only one way that happens.
I still think they are about to substantially weaken the USD. Everything is in order.
price of lumber is falling because of global warming growing trees faster so more supply.
/SARC for those of you that believe in this stuff
We create CO2 and the trees create O2.
Quite a distrustful way to run a ponzi scam. Carbon dioxide credits are a mere factor in depleting civilization. You'll need to buy a space suit on Amazon.
Little Obama Rascals - YouTube
Bad econ data, more terrorist activity = Stocks rally. Just shows the immoral attitude of wall street
Falling lumber prices, falling copper prices, and the "good news", unemployment at 5%. Sure......
With this incredibly manipulated housing market, 3% downpayments and ZIRP, BUT COMPLETELY UNSUSTAINABLY-INFLATED HOUSING PRICES, potential home-buyers should be boycotting the market and laughing at realtors and banks holding foreclosure properties.
Those who are buying in this debt-swindling environment are getting the raw end of the monetary-policy stick as their properties right out of the starting gate are coming up 30-40% underwater including closing costs, mortgage application fees, insurance, necessary repairs and regular maintenance.
New homeowners are finding their properties are sinking further underwater every day thereafter with property taxes increasing at a 10% per anum clip. This underwater problem is not due to global warming. Every property tax increase devalues real estate. And every year for the last eight years property taxes have gone up on average 10% nationwide. Talk about buying an anchor!
JUST BOYCOTT THE BASTARDS FOR A WHILE. NO ONE IS GETTING A DEAL IN THIS RIGGED ENVIRONMENT. JUST LOOK AT WHAT YOU'D HAVE TO PUT YOUR POTENTIAL HOUSING PURCHASE ON THE MARKET FOR TO BREAK EVEN. LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP. IN THIS MARKET, EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR THE GREATER FOOL. BUY NOW, AND YOU'LL QUICKLY FIND, THAT YOU'RE AT THE END OF THE LINE.
One final point.
3MIN News December 28, 2012: Collapsing Atmosphere
The lumber price is not a foolproof leading indicator of US housing. Housing is one of many moving parts to lumber demand. Another one is China where demand for lumber is lagging. Then there are supply issues due to still excess capacity here and in Canada. Finally the weak Canadian exchange rate has lowered the cost floor for 30% of the lumber that comes from Canada.
Thanks DankVader. ;o) Finally someone brings at least a pasing reference to the Softwood Lumber Agreement between the U.S. and Canada, which expired on Oct 12. The expiration of the SLA allows Canadian producers to export as much lumber to the U.S. as they want without fear of tariffs. Futures prices started tanking in June in anticipation of the SLA expiring. So, Tylers et al, weak futures prices are merely an indication of supply exceeding demand.
All I see is those 10x10 "shed" like homes all over the news,Web and magazine ads. And guess what the millenial sheep thinks it's a "cool" idea!?
What ever "cool" applies to?
contrarian indicator?