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"Record" El Nino Already Wreaking Havoc With California Electricity Prices

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just three weeks ago we warned of "all kinds of mayhem" about to be let loose as scientists feared this year's El Nino may be among the biggest ever, and as Bloomberg reports, the impact is already being felt in California... but not in much needed rain or snow. California has yet to see the full force of El Nino, and it’s already tripping up the state’s power-demand forecasters. The state saw "significant" electricity price spikes in the third quarter as El Nino made it difficult to predict how much power would be needed with a "relatively high percentage of intervals" when prices spiked above $1,000 a megawatt-hour in the 5-minute market... 25 times normal costs!

 

As we detailed previously, in the simplest terms, an El Nino pattern is a warming of the equatorial Pacific caused by a weakening of the trade winds that normally push sun-warmed waters to the west. This triggers a reaction from the atmosphere above.

Its name traces back hundreds of years to the coast of Peru, where fishermen noticed the Pacific Ocean sometimes warmed in late December, around Christmas, and coincided with changes in fish populations. They named it El Nino after the infant Jesus Christ. Today meteorologists call it the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

 

 

The last time there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-setting event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calamities killed at least 30,000 people and caused $100 billion in damage, Trenberth estimates. Another powerful El Nino, in 1918-19, sank India into a brutal drought and probably contributed to the global flu pandemic, according to a study by the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

*  *  *
While the effect on the U.S. may not reach a crescendo until February, much of the rest of the world is already feeling the impact, Trenberth said.

“It probably sits at No. 2 in terms of how strong this event is, but we won’t be able to rank it until it peaks out and ends,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950. It will dominate weather’s many twists and turns through the end of this year and well into next. And it’s causing gyrations in everything from the price of Colombian coffee to the fate of cold-water fish.

Expect “major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods,” Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In principle, with advance warning, El Nino can be managed and prepared for, “but without that knowledge, all kinds of mayhem will let loose.

*  *  *

But as Bloomberg reports,

"California load models have not experienced weather patterns like we have seen this past year, especially the high temperatures of October," Steven Greenlee, a spokesman for the California ISO, said in an e-mail statement. The grid operator is "retraining" its forecasting models, Greenlee said.

 

The Northern California hub, which includes San Francisco, continued to see brief price surges in October and November, grid data show.

The good news...

On average, power prices slumped in the third quarter from a year earlier due in large part to cheaper natural gas, the report showed. Spot on-peak power at the Northern California hub averaged $38.15 a megawatt-hour from July through September, down 23 percent from the same period last year and the lowest average for the quarter since 2012.

But...

The state saw “significant” electricity price spikes in the third quarter as El Nino made it difficult to predict how much power would be needed on hot summer and fall days, the California Independent System Operator Corp. said Monday in a report.

 

Record rainfall and regional cloud cover in Southern California also perplexed forecasters, the grid operator said.

 

"With El Nino, California and the Southwest tends to get more storminess and that is inherently more challenging to forecast," Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC, said in an e-mail Tuesday. "The extra cloudiness and sporadic storminess this autumn as well as some heat spikes early in the third quarter can be attributed to El Nino influences."

 

 

In California power markets, the odd weather led to "load forecast errors on several days with particularly high loads," according to the report. In September, there was a “relatively high percentage of intervals” when prices spiked above $1,000 a megawatt-hour in the 5-minute market.

*  *  *
So already electrcity prices are spiking 25x normal... and the biggest effects of El-Nino are yet to hit...

 

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Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:51 | 6809913 order66
order66's picture

Makes sense since it hasn't even arrived yet.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:56 | 6809938 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Why would California need more electricity with an El Nino year? That makes no sense on its face. Half of California is mediterranean climate, meaning rather warm even during winter. The other half has plenty of natural gas delivery. Besides which, the only real impact of El Nino is usually extra rain, not a significant change in temperature.

This is pure gouging.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:02 | 6809960 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

women need to charge their dildo's and the men need to watch the porn channel.

And that microwave with the popcorn function... that runs on electricity also...

you can break a tooth on those corn seeds if you eat them from the bag...

 

I bet that if a American who lived in the US in the 1990 would come here in a timemachine, he'd die of shame within the hour if he watched the news.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:04 | 6809970 TruxtonSpangler
TruxtonSpangler's picture

"Record El Nino" follows on the heels of "Record Tropical Storm Patricia" - doesnt have anything to do with Paris COP21 coming up does it? Patricia was an absolute dud. Now about that record El Nino? Ill believe it when I swim to work.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:07 | 6809984 Flatchestynerdette
Flatchestynerdette's picture

A drop of rain hasn't hit the ground in some areas and Cali energy futures are doing this? So freakin stupid - it just shows how much money is sloshing around trying to find return on investment

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:33 | 6810101 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

This is the dumbest bunch of crap I've read in a long time.  By the chart El Ninos hit every few years and CalISO has never seen it happen before?  Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:37 | 6810424 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Butbutbut what about global warming? What about climate change? are we going to drown if we're near the ocean? Isn't there a hole in the ozone? California isn't going to turn into a desert again, is it? Will this affect my white privilege? What about my wi-fi? Isn't there a solar flare or something like a comet coming? What about "The Big One? Oh dear, oh dear....

This worry attack was brought to you by the Association of California Concerned Citizens and... uninvited guests.org

Have a GREAT day!/sarc

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:49 | 6810513 TruxtonSpangler
TruxtonSpangler's picture

Southern California is a coastal desert. Every part of the world at this latitude is a desert. Every (approx) 60 deg latitude is desert - -90, -30, 30 and 90. Sahara, Gobi, Artic, antarctic. Southern California, New Mexico, Northern Mexico, Arizona, Texas. This is how weather patterns work.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:50 | 6810881 knukles
knukles's picture

It's the weather's fault. 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:48 | 6810173 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I think the claim is that we have had an "unseasonably" warm fall (so more AC use). In reality, this fall has been no more unseasonably warm than any other unseasonably warm fall we've had in my 47 years here. Generally it has been warm, and dry with the remnants of a couple Tropical Storms bring some humidity. Nothing extraordinary here.

If this El Nino kicks in as planned, just wait for the next excuse; clouds obscured all that new, subsidized solar capacity we've installed over Desert Tortoise and Poppy habitat.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:05 | 6809975 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Yet some Texas utilities are giving power away at night or PAYING customers to take power off their hands...

California: The State That Would Fuck Up a One Car Funeral.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:19 | 6810045 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That's cause of the over develpment of wind/solar/NG in that state.  Many TX generators are running on borrowed time and the blow up will make CA's pricing seem reasonable. 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:02 | 6810244 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Increased prices are expected.

The generating capacity represented by subsidized solar, and wind simply are too unreliable to replace fossil fuel based systems, so long as there is an expectation that flipping a switch on the wall, results immediate illumination.

Reliable fossil fuel (or nuke) based generation must remain running and ready, alongside "renewables," in order to meet demand spikes. It must also be ready to take up the slack the renewables will experience under suboptimal weather conditions (clouds and/or no wind). All of that still consumes fuel.

Thanks to all those wondergoddamedfuckingful subsidies.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:48 | 6810505 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

I thought Enron went out of business.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:59 | 6809947 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

:) +1000000

 

 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:54 | 6809921 Zero-Hegemon
Zero-Hegemon's picture

Oscillators gonna flip/flop

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:55 | 6809931 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The spikes are tiny, and I think were only "surprises" compared against year-ahead plans.

I often watch (for amusement) the California ISO charts, and never saw any disasters at that level.

http://www.caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:57 | 6809939 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

Just goes to show that one can $$$profit from nearly anything.   Speaking of that, is there a Double El Nino somewhere...?   I need to get rich quick...

 

 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:57 | 6809940 aliki
aliki's picture

but this ... this is gold

Blackstone President Tony James fears recession in 2017, Bloomberg says

Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said he is concerned that the U.S. could potentially enter a recession by 2017 as economic growth faces headwinds, Bloomberg reports.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/blackstone-president-james-sees-potential-u-s-recession-in-2017

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:00 | 6809952 10mm
10mm's picture

Recession, righttttt.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:09 | 6809996 silverer
silverer's picture

Do people like this land in their jobs by being sent back to the wrong room after a frontal lobotomy?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 14:58 | 6809946 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

The energy crises in California is caused, once again, by government mismanagement.  Remember when they blamed the symptom, ENRON, for the problem- controlled market prices set by doofuses in the California Legislature?

So now the Head Dipshits In Charge are blaming the motherfucking WEATHER for everything from high energy prices to societal collapse.  Global Warming gonna getcha, it's not our fault, eh?

How stupid are the people who eat this bullshit?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:00 | 6809954 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Enron is back.  Thank you Federal Reserve and low interest rates.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:05 | 6809977 silverer
silverer's picture

The resilient and well managed economy of Californicate will easily absorb the effects of all this.  The state is indestructible.  Everything, including the budget and Nancy Pelosi just can't be overwhelmed by minor occurences like this.  Don't worry.  Follow Gartman's advice and keep buying equities!   LOL.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:06 | 6809978 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You can fool a fool as many times as you want.

 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:16 | 6810036 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

So is this inflation or not?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:17 | 6810021 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Those price spikes are can't be from generators using JPM old bidding model, cause it sure looks like it is.  Also, CASIO's site sucks worse than MISO's.  

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:23 | 6810059 Gert_B_Frobe
Gert_B_Frobe's picture

Who gives a f***. It's not in my backyard. They can go suck Charlie's death stick.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:26 | 6810078 CHoward
CHoward's picture

ENRON LIVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:27 | 6810079 City_Of_Champyinz
City_Of_Champyinz's picture

“Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket, regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad, because I’m capping greenhouse gases,” Obama said. “Coal power plants, natural gas, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money onto consumers.”

Looking out for the little guy...

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:44 | 6810150 Lostinfortwalton
Lostinfortwalton's picture

No problemo. We can pay the higher electricity bills with the money we save on our medical insurance premiums and still have money left over. It's for the children. Ooops, you say a sleeping child emits carbon dioxide and water vapor? We may just have to euthanize them. And ourselves. It's for the 1%.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:34 | 6810107 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

El Enron

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:36 | 6810112 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

How about that pause? eh?

 

Worth noting: Hottest October on Record by 0.18 °C

  • 2015 is still hottest on record so far, and moving ahead of other years.
  • The progressive year to date average up to and including October is 0.82 °C above the 1951-1980 mean, up from 0.81 °C to September.
  • October was an average of 1.04 °C above the 1951-1980 mean and is thehottest October on record, after October last year (0.86 °C).
  • June this year was the hottest June on record. 
  • The highest anomaly this year is now October, at 1.04 °C.
  • The lowest anomalies this year so far were April, now 0.73 °C, and August now also 0.73 °C above the 1951-1980 mean.
  • To drop below the hottest year on record, 2014 (0.75 °C), the average anomaly for the next three months would need to be around 0.41 °C, which seems almost impossible. Especially given the El Niño and the fact that the lowest anomaly so far this year was 0.73 °C. 
Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:44 | 6810155 venturen
venturen's picture

you can get any number you want with massaged data(as the FED)....funny no mention of the places that experience record cold temps? Like ICELAND this summer.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:47 | 6810167 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Why can't someone in the pay of Exxon or Patriot coal "massage" the numbers to show otherwise?

Anyone smart enough to do it knows that they can't....

Get over it... 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:54 | 6810202 venturen
venturen's picture

people show the fraud all the time...you choose the Al Gore vision of how to make money via fraud. 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:49 | 6810508 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Because the "keepers" of the records are all on the government payroll, same as BLS, all producing BS numbers that suit government officials with their unending lust for more power and control.

And as Lenin stated, those seeking power and control can always rely on some "useful idiots" to support them.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:46 | 6810870 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So there is a 130 year consipiracy then across at least 4 different meterological societies?

Are you really that paranoid? 

My money is on paranoid and stupid....

A pathetic way to go through life...

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 19:43 | 6811336 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

You claim that Lindzen is too old to count yet you trust 19th century thermometers?!?

That is stupidity on parade.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:05 | 6810243 City_Of_Champyinz
City_Of_Champyinz's picture

LOL what a stupid comment.

The Earth is estimated to be around 4.5 Billion years old.

Accurate records go back about 150 years.

That accounts for .0000003333% of the Earth's history, which is statistically meaningless.

You should take a remedial statistics class, I suggest starting and ending with a big glass of kool aid.

If we are responsible for Global Warming, please look up the following graphs and provide a coherent argument that supports your position:

Holocene Temperature Variations: If you look at it, you can see various temperature readings taken from different areas around the globe. (Not everyplace is warm or cold at the same time.) The thick black line is the mean temp derived from those different readings. You'll see that it fluctuates like a sine wave. Those are called short-term climate oscillations, otherwise known as warm periods or cold periods. Some of them have names; like the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, or even the Little Ice Age. We've had 19 of them just in the last 8,000 years.

GISP 2 and EPICA Dome C: It is made up of ice core data for the past 200 to 11,000 years ago. Please note the simple fact that the temperature never stays the same, it always has been fluctuating throughout history.  How do you possibly explain the wild swings in temperature that occurred thousands of years before the industrial revolution and the human use of fossil fuels?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:23 | 6810357 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

The Earth is estimated to be around 4.5 Billion years old.

Accurate records go back about 150 years.

That accounts for .0000003333% of the Earth's history, which is statistically meaningless.

 

Very good example of critical thinking . . . which the "global warming/climate change" morons can't seem to get their heads around.  Makes me very sad for the future of unbiased science in the future that's for sure.

And BTW . . .  over the "150 years of records" the thermometers used in the 1800's were notoriously inaccurate and subject to much subjectivity.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:34 | 6810403 rejected
rejected's picture

"which the "global warming/climate change" morons can't seem to get their heads around. "

 

They 'fixed' the health insurance problem with a tax.

Guess they figure they can fix GW with a tax too.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:51 | 6810525 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Guess they figure they can fix GW with a tax too.

 

Fucking A!!!!

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:45 | 6810490 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

What were once accurate records went back about 150 years.  Then the warmists started changing all the records, so that the past appeared colder than it was.  They also reduced the number of weather stations, particularly in non urban areas, so areas once measured no longer are (they are estimated) and the areas being measured tend to be the ones most prone to the heat island effects of urban activity.  So the allegedly accurate series are falsified data, the same as all other government statistics, double seasonally adjusted, or whatever.

The only reasonably reliable data now available is the satellite data and by a remarkable coincidence, the pause started once there was sufficient satellite data to establish a series.

 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:13 | 6810650 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

"How about that pause? eh?

Worth noting: Hottest October on Record by 0.18 °C"

 

I am so sick of morons who never passed high school math who bring up this same dumb argument. If 1998 was the hottest year on record, and then the temperature levels-off (the pause) then the graph will be flat and every year thereafter will be amongst the hottest on record. We're talking about a difference of less than 0.2 degrees here, which (over the entire surface of the earth and covering a whole year, with all the problems in properly measuring the SURFACE temperature over LAND) doesn't even cover the margin of error for those measurement stations.

When the graph levels off and goes into a pause, it means that all further measurements will have the maximum value. All of the years since the pause are essentially tied for first place. THAT IS WHAT A PAUSE MEANS!

Here is a short video (3:09) in which this very same principle is being explained by Dr. Richard Lindzen to an equally dense British twat.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:35 | 6810785 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Just because you are too thick to understand how measurements work does not mean there are not plenty of people that do..

It is either that or you are simply lying sack of shit...

Because if it was as you said, there are no shortage of people that could write a consistent technical paper that would pass peer review that would turn it all over. Funny how Exxon can't find $100,000 for a quant to do just that given the millions they have spent on PR firms and the like...

BTW, fucknuts I have a Ph.D in physics, go bark up another tree....

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 18:37 | 6811099 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Then you of all people should understand how to read a graph and what a pause is. (Of course, like all of the 'measurements' on your side, I will just have to take you on your word about the higher education degree, cause I won't see any PROOF.)

There are lots of peer reviewed papers which state exactly what I have said, and what you have said, all written by Ph.Ds. They can't all be right. As it turns out, those who state your opinion are bought out shills. I can't blame them, a large pizza will feed more people than a PH.D in physics.

But let's talk about someone with RELEVANT education on the subject.

Dr. Richard Siegmund Lindzen (born February 8, 1940) is an American atmospheric physicist known for his work in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, atmospheric tides, and ozone photochemistry. He has published more than 200 scientific papers and books. From 1983 until his retirement in 2013, he was Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He was a lead author of Chapter 7, “Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks,” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Third Assessment Report on climate change. He has criticized the scientific ‘consensus’ about climate change and what he has called “climate alarmism.”

Dr. Patrick J. (“Pat”) Michaels (born February 15, 1950) is an American climatologist. Michaels is a senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute. Until 2007 he was research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, where he had worked from 1980. A self-described skeptic on the issue of global warming, he is a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists. He has written a number of books and papers on climate change…

Dr. Timothy Francis “Tim” Ball (born November 5, 1938) is a Canadian geographer and historical climatologist, best known for his public opposition to the scientific consensus in the global warming controversy. A retired professor, he taught in the department of geography at the University of Winnipeg from 1971 until 1996. Ball has worked with the Friends of Science and the Natural Resources Stewardship Project, and is a research fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Dr. Christopher Essex is Professor and Associate Chair in the Department of Applied Mathematics at The University of Western Ontario. He is a former director of its Theoretical Physics Program. Dr. Essex’s work also includes applications of dynamical systems theory, such as chaos cryptography, and recently, the limits of modelling and computation, among other applications of mathematics. By invitation, he has organized and participated in meetings held in Erice, Sicily of the World Federation of Scientists (WFS), which is based out of CERN. Professor Essex has co-chaired sessions there with Antonino Zichichi and Nobel Laureate T.D. Lee and he has recently become Chair of the WFS’s Permanent Monitoring Panel for Climate. Dr. Essex held an NSERC postdoctoral fellowship from 1982-84 at the Canadian Climate Centre. He has taught at the UNESCO advanced school in Udine, Italy. He was first appointed to the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada in 2007 and is now in his second term. Former NSERC postdoc at the Canadian Climate Centre’s Numerical Modelling Division (GCM) London, Ontario. He was an author of the Fraser Institute’s 2007 “Independent Summary for Policymakers”, and a 2002 book titled Taken By Storm: The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming (co-authored by Ross McKitrick.) was a recipient of the Donner Prize in 2002 (given annually for the best books on Canadian public policy.) The book was also a finalist for the 2002 Canadian Science Writers Book Award.

Dr. Roy Warren Spencer is a meteorologist, Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has served as Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. He is known for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work, for which he was awarded the American Meteorological Society’s Special Award.

The Right Climate Stuff team is a team of NASA scientists who contend (and substantiate their contentions) that AGW is not catastrophic and that the IPCC’s data is flawed. Includes Dr. Hal Doiron.

Dr. Wei-Hock “Willie” Soon (born 1966) is a solar physicist whose current research interest is solar influences on the Earth’s climate. Soon is a part-time employee of the Smithsonian at the Solar and Stellar Physics (SSP) Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. He is also a receiving editor for the Elsevier journal New Astronomy. Soon co-authored The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun–Earth Connection with Steven H. Yaskell.

 

I will put their opinions before yours every day of the week. And they all think you are full of shit.

 

Why have so many experts who have worked on the IPCC changed sides?

Why do alarmists fudge their data if it is so rock-solid?

Why do skeptics bring data while alarmists bring opinion and fear?

Why don't you look at the data, do your own analysis, and post your results in peer-reviewed journals like all the people above have instead of quoting the work of others if you know so much? Anyone quoting these numbers should understand the difficulty in measuring the data in the first place. You should know that many of the measurment stations in colder parts of the world were taken offline. You should understand the heat-island effect (which some of you deny based on NO data.) You should also know that most of the earth does not have any measurement info, as well as the fact that the earth is 70% ocean.

Finally, tell me what the average global surface temperature was last year (2014.) If you can give me this number (upon which you base your crap stats) I will take back everything I have written on the subject and start campaigning for the alarmist side. There is no such number. It is measured in change (in other words it is a trend) and is averaged.

"The basic GISS temperature analysis scheme was defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen when a method of estimating global temperature change was needed for comparison with one-dimensional global climate models. Most prior temperature analyses, notably those of Murray Mitchell, covered only 20-90°N latitudes. Our first published results (Hansen et al. 1981) showed that, contrary to impressions from northern latitudes, global cooling after 1940 was small, and there was net global warming of about 0.4°C between the 1880s and 1970s."

Just the fact that you would claim a Ph.D without stating your relevant field is laughable. Obviously nothing to do with climate, or you would have said so. I don't go to see a proctologist if I have myeloma. There are lots of branches of physics, most of which don't make you an expert on climate. You should, however, be able to plot a simple graph.

Watch this video (3:09) for a basic lesson on graphs.

Read up here and then you can stick your head back in the sand.

JoNova

WUWT

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:35 | 6810116 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

rolling blackouts 2.0

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:38 | 6810128 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And there's more:  From Jeff Master's over at Weather Underground:

 

Earth’s surface temperature has surged high into uncharted territory, thanks to a record-strength El Niño event combined with the long-term rise in temperatures due to human-caused global warming: October 2015 was Earth’s warmest month on record by a huge margin, according to data released by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. October 2015 was the second consecutive month with a new all-time warmest month record: September 2015 previously held the record for the largest positive departure of temperature from average of any month among all 1630 months in the historical record that began in January 1880. 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:42 | 6810145 venturen
venturen's picture

I like how they avoid the cause of the energy fluctuation....you mean SOLAR? Or Wind? Which produce when they dam well please. Non dispatchable energy is a bitch...and I am going to laugh myself silly when they blow up a power plant or two...from their mad rush to use renewable without building proper redunance. Good luck Cali!

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:56 | 6810309 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

I like how they avoid the cause of the energy fluctuation....you mean SOLAR?

 

Yeah, interestingly enough EVERY IPCC report on "global warming/climate change" has SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED any non-human impact on the climate!!!  How fucking stupid do they think people are when things like solar activity (or lack thereof) and vulcanism are not considered when evaluating the causes of "global warming" (sorry, I mean "climate change" since their "global warming" narrative has bitten the big one over the last 10 years or so).

Do the research sheep!  You're being fucking lied to as usual . . . . it's all about the MONEY!!!

Here's a good summary of the "validity" of the IPCC data:

"We are not in a position to question the composition of the IPCC, or its legitimacy and policy decisions, and we shall not do so. However, as mathematicians, we have every right to respond to the following question: if the IPCC’s work were to be submitted for public action in a reputable scientific journal, would it be accepted? This decision is the task of a referee, in a procedure that is common practice in the sciences. The answer is very simple: no sensible, high quality journal would publish the IPCC’s work. The IPCC’s conclusions go against observed facts; the figures used are deliberately chosen to support its conclusions (with no regard for the most basic scientific honesty), and the natural variability of phenomena is passed over without comment. The IPCC’s report fails to respect the fundamental rules of scientific research and could not be published in any review with a reading panel."

Here's the entire report quoted above: http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_Global_Warming_Summary_2015_09.pdf
Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:24 | 6810692 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Quit making shit up...

Here is the relevant section from the last IPCC

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL...

Do you really think that everyone is as ignorant as you are?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 19:27 | 6811273 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

In climate research and modelling [sic], we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (2001), Section 14.2.2.2, page 774

Nobody is making anything up; you just don't understand how to read a graph.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:44 | 6810152 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I ain;t finished yet:

Lets see, of the 10 warmest months on record, 7 have occurred this year...

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from the 20th Century average:
1) 0.98°C, Oct 2015
2) 0.91°C, Sep 2015
3) 0.89°C, Mar 2015
4) 0.88°C, Feb 2015
4) 0.88°C, Jan 2007
6) 0.87°C, Aug 2015
6) 0.87°C, Jun 2015
8) 0.86°C, Feb 1998
9) 0.85°C, May 2015
10) 0.85°C, Mar 2010

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:46 | 6810160 venturen
venturen's picture

made up numbers...PERIOD. Go read the hockey stick illusion for an example of the out right faud of how they arrive at these numbers...they make money spinning the plates

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:47 | 6810170 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Denial is clearly no longer just a river in Egypt....

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:58 | 6810229 venturen
venturen's picture

so you are telling me that we have warmed from having a mile think glacier over NY a couple thousand year ago...yep I can agree with that. Since Global Warming prediction have regularly proven ABJECTLY WRONG and Democrat Cronies have made billions selling this fraud...yep I can agree with that. I also believe we should lower our impact. But paying Warren Buffet for snake oil renewable energy that DOESN'T WORK and does a lot of harm. NOPE! Do you know one of the largest contributors of "renewable energy" is burning wood the worst emitter of CO2? So you accept anything Obama tells you? Goodluck with that

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:02 | 6810597 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Clueless is as clueless does...

Are you simply making shit up on the fly or do you have a coherent argument to make?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 21:35 | 6811674 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Speaking of clueless, do you know

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:10 | 6810275 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Denial is clearly no longer just a river in Egypt....

 

Spoken like a true sheep that believes every lie spouted by the MSM, the bought and paid for governments and most importantly TPTB that plan on reaping the trillions of dollars from the "global warming" (ahem - "climate change") bullshit/scam. 

Doesn't anyone on the "GW/CC" side of things realize that EVERY non-plant species on the entire planet releases CO2 and that CO2 is a PLANT FERTILIZER??  And they have the audacity to call CO2 a "pollutant" - what utter BULLSHIT!!!

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:06 | 6810581 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Lookie a Hedgetard!

So why can't Exxon pay for an analysis that shows it is all wrong?

BTW, AGW was predicted in 1896.... 

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 21:40 | 6811680 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

They had good science in 1896, maybe you should update your datasets. /sarc

And cooling was predicted in the 70's, what's your point?

Predictions and projections based on faulty models should hold no sway.

Garbage in, garbage out.

ps_ If Exxon did sponsor a paper proving it all wrong, you would just discredit the scientists behind it because they have been sponsored by the fossil fuels industry. Hypocrite.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:03 | 6810609 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep, rely on a a TV weather guy who dropped out of University for your science...

\facepalm...

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 20:10 | 6811433 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

He doesn't write it, he posts it.

/facepalm indeed.

Thu, 11/19/2015 - 16:42 | 6814847 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Pure Alinsky tactics

Attack the messenger.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:03 | 6810241 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from the 20th Century average . . .

 

There's HUGE problems with data like this: 1) the number and quality of temperature sensors on the ground around the world covers only about 20% of the globe and 2) trying to determine surface temps from satellites is notoriously inaccurate.  Therefore, although I don't disagree that we've seen some unusually warm temps in SOME areas of the planet there have been as many COLD record temps as well. Don't believe me?  See this:

http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_Global_Warming_Summary_2015_09.pdf

BTW . . . if you haven't already figured it out NOAA is just another tool for TPTB.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:26 | 6810371 Depression is Coming
Depression is Coming's picture

You realize that data means nothing...if this is the warmest year in a century..chances are good we'd have some of the warmest months on record this year. I can find 50 patterns that match and claim causality. In 1880 there were 1.8 billion people. For every 100 million people we add to earth, the AVERAGE surface temperature rises. sound the trumpets, we need population control!

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:10 | 6810645 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You realize that what youn don't know about statistics fills many textbooks...

Some of them might even be in your local library...

Why don't you compute the probabilities of observing what we are seeing given the data and get back to us?

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:37 | 6810799 Depression is Coming
Depression is Coming's picture

It's like talking to a retarded evangelical...that entire page means nothing. Go back to Devry you fucking moron.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:44 | 6810854 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Now there is a snappy comeback...

Is that really the best you can muster?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 18:14 | 6811005 Depression is Coming
Depression is Coming's picture

No more meaningless stats to post? Sorry not everyone is intimidated by numbers..it's obvious that's all you rely on..

And please..start getting more creative with your "snappy comebacks."

If Devry already rejected you, try going to that library you were talking about.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 19:30 | 6811284 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

This proves you don't know how to read a graph. You've just disproved your own initial premise.

When a graph hits a plateau, all the further data points are the 'warmest ever.' That is the definition of a pause. Almost two decades now, and counting.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:47 | 6810169 BiPolarFrenchman
BiPolarFrenchman's picture

I remember Enron, anyone else?  

 

AND...the weather...again.  The article doesn't quite explain how "more storminess" and cloudy days lead to 25x spikes in energy prices...I'd be interested for someone to explain the logic out to me (seriously).

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:53 | 6810194 Solarman
Solarman's picture

Available load vs need.  Supply as well as demad is variable.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:14 | 6810665 buzzkillb
buzzkillb's picture

The only thing I can think of are all the solar units with no batteries having to pull from the grid. Probably doesn't help the State is pushing for more electric cars as power plants are closed down.

Over here about 10 miles from Downtown LA its been getting into the 40's at night. People plugging heaters in? I remember last year there were cold days where burning wood fires was banned.

All of this just like the water issue. People conserve so the rates get jacked up.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 15:53 | 6810196 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Enron redux anyone???

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 18:16 | 6811012 joego1
joego1's picture

Were back......

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:49 | 6810279 devo
devo's picture

I live in CA, and they are constantly looking for excuses to jack up any and all utilities. Jacking them up before an event even happens sounds about right. Do not move here, and if you live here, you should considering leaving. Soon all the business will leave, too, because the environment for business is stiffling. We're planning an exit strategy. It is the most beautiful State but the worst governed.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:20 | 6810341 Aubiekong
Aubiekong's picture

We have screwed Mars.  One or two man made rovers and bam its now getting warmer on mars as well.  When will we learn.  Stop captialism now and save the earth and mars...

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:07 | 6810625 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you make shit up often? 

Would you classify it as complusive?

Either that or you are poe'in us...

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 19:34 | 6811299 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Mars is getting warmer. This warming trend causes outgassing of CO2 (a rise in CO2 does not cause warming) which is how NASA engineers plan on terraforming Mars. They will raise the temps on Mars in order to start to create an atmosphere. They won't do it using CO2. This is quite well documented as per NASA.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 16:24 | 6810362 hedgelessWhoresMan
hedgelessWhoresMan's picture

If Cali runs on solar, they are up the creek if the sun goes behind the clouds.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:10 | 6810635 Aubiekong
Aubiekong's picture

Well Mars is getting warmer now.  Must be that darn movie they just shot on Mars.  A couple of nuclear powered rovers, a movie set, and bam we just global warmed mars.  Come on people when will we learn the entire solar systme enviroment is fragile and must be cared for we need to send in our earth dollar carbon credits and now mars dollar carbon credits  to  Gore se he can save the polar bears...

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 17:31 | 6810757 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Haven't we learned that high energy prices are caused by 'energy cartels' and manipulating big banks in California! Do we forget history?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 18:05 | 6810956 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Tyler isn't bullet proof. Even her can jump a shark.

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