This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Even The 1% Is Hurting: Swiss Watch Exports Plunge Most Since Financial Crisis
As the poor get poorer, so the saying goes, the rich get richer; and until recently that was not just true, but apparently mandated so by The Fed. However, the last few months have seen the so-called "1%" appearing to struggle a little in their largesse. As we noted previously, not only are luxury jet values dropping for the first time since 2009, London mansion prices plunging, San Francisco home sales collapsing, and Sotheby's laying people off, but now, as Bloomberg reports, Swiss watches - the ultimate in luxury extravagance - have seen exports crash by the most since the financial crisis.
Swiss watch exports collapsed 12.3% YoY in October... the worst since the financial crisis and not seen outside of a US recession...
“2015 has been one to forget for the watchmakers,” said Jon Cox, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux in Zurich. As Bloomberg reports,
Swiss watch exports had their biggest decline in six years in October, led by a 39 percent slump in shipments to Hong Kong, the industry’s largest market.
Shipments declined 12 percent to 2 billion Swiss francs ($2 billion), the Swiss customs office said in a statement Thursday.
Exports to the U.S. dropped 12 percent.
But aside from that, it appears only one thing has really benefited from The Fed's largesse (as demand for Diamonds and Fine Wine has crashed)...
The rich appear to be cinching up the purse strings, and as we concluded previously, that is not a good sign...
So the rich are becoming less rich? To an extent, yes. Recent declines in commodity prices and emerging market debt have no doubt taken a bite out of some big portfolios. Meanwhile hedge funds, the preferred investment management vehicle of the uber-wealthy, have done badly for the past couple of years, with some high-profile implosions generating headlines.
These disappointments have lowered the net worth of some big players and made others more cautious. Hence the lessened demand for the most pretentious assets.
The impact on the global economy? Almost certainly bad, since the 1% are the marginal buyers of so many reference assets like blue-chip stocks and government bonds. To the extent that they grow cautious, the bid for a lot of things will be lower, cutting corporate profits, equity valuations and high-end asset prices.
Put another way, when the only healthy part of an already-impaired system turns negative, everyone will feel the resulting pain.
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 570 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I feel your pain bro.......not. A manufactured currency crisis eventually eats everyone alive. Just some more than others.
Misleading title. The 1% are probably doing fine; they don't buy ALL the Swiss watch exports. It's the wannabe 1% who are hurting since they are next in line for the deflationary damage. Thassa lotta watches!
ROLEX,bitches!
owning a rolex is like owning gold,will never loose value,owning a gold rolex even better,so there....
My banker neighbor is hoping another Democrat gets elected next year so his fat bonuses will keep rolling in so he can refurbish his yacht.
Who ever thought the Dems would be the Sugar Daddy for the top 1% and the lower 10% while destroying America's middle class in between?!
meanwhile Trump's base is blue collar americans,we're in unchartered waters for sure!
Our Ship of State is the SS Minnow and we're on our way for the Skipper's three-hour tour.
A three-hour tour...
Owning a Rolex screams inferiority complex and small dick. Owning a Timex says I don't give a fuck what you think, it works.
Maybe they would prefer a watch that takes a licking and keeps on ticking.
A Pussy watch?
Tick tock mother fuckers. Wait! That's not my line!
Deflation is the natural consequence of industrialization and capitalisim. Let it take hold naturally ao the Rentier class can take their losses. The Treasury has all the constitutional powers it needs to keep business credit availiable and to ensure the deposits of the 99%.
Make these Rentier assholes take their losse and everything would sort itself out in a year. The torrent of industry and economic activity that would be unleashed by such creative destruction would be a win for the vast majority of the populace.
THE ONLY REASON WE ARE FORCED TO ENDURE THE GREAT RECESSION IS SO THE RENTIER CLASS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR STATUS!!!
Real equality under law and capitalisim allowed to run it's course would solve many of our ills...
But 'they' aren't trying to solve 'our' ills. Unless and until 'We the People' take matters into our own hands our ills will only grow worse.
Drop the Marx , ass hole
Long live Brietling. Best watches I've ever owned. Had a few Rollers, but too heavy.
i-Shit> lol
Ever since I read King Rat, by James Clavell, I have been partial to Omega, mostly Speedmaster and Seamaster automatics. If it is good enough for NASA to use when they faked the moon landings, then it is good enough for my real life on Earth.
Both nice time pieces HH. Brietling seems to do well with salt water.[ extra curricular] I also love the beautiful Saphire crystal that impedes reflection.
Brietling is an well crafted time piece.]
Rolex <>It's just too thick for my wrist. [feels like lump of expensive coal]
I just love the Brietling Navitimer series of watches.
Where Brietling gets the Saphire for it's watch faces and fashions them with such strength, is an enigma to me.
It's Breitling, knew some people bragging about theirs, very puerile. There's billions of losses in the shale oil and fracking industries, since Saudi started dumping. Strangely enough they are allowed to dump below price on the world market. What makes the Saudis immune from prosecution?
Wealth did not trickle down from the 1%, but the losses will.
Well I think I will stick to Seagull brand. They make the movements for the Swiss high end tourbillon"s.
Best damn watch no one has heard of even though they do 75% of the Worlds mechanical movements.
Yes even TIMEX
yes,great chinese made watches for very little money
this is one of the classic seagulls,homeage to the 1963 chinese military watches. one of my favourites http://www.ebay.com/itm/Seagull-1963-Hand-Winding-Mechanical-Chronograph...
Please explaine the movement of a time~piece.
Please explaine your desire to understand and design new time-pieces?
You realize clocks run faster in orbit?
Agreed, also like the older Bell & Ross but I always go back to my Brietling.
Its the recovery, stupid. Everyone who is anyone is wearing an Apple Watch. $17K for a Casio in gold. Even Oprah has one so you know it must be the "right" thing to do.
The Amazon watch watch reviews are great reading. Some of the best ones have been deleted. A good example for a $114K watch
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001N0D61G?keywords=zenith%20watch&qid=...
Free shipping too. Bonus.
Great link, Duo!
Looks like an excellent watch but could it take this kind of punishment?
This is directly attributable to the corruption crackdown in the PRC.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-03/empty-macau-vip-tables...
While China's corruption crackdown is definitely a cause, however, the move to healithier lifestyles and brand fatigue are also to be blamed.
Globally, outside of China, currencies have had a major impact along with high rents and high salaries combined with tax hikes. For example, South Africa, Brazil, Russia have had currency declines in excess of 100%. Nigeria, Ghana, Angola etc are at 60-70% while Canada, Australia, NZ are at 35-40% over the last few years.
This sort of depreciation causes everyone to stop buy anything whether in home country or while travelling making luxury goods especially, dearer for residents of those countries.
Nice article here:
China’s rich no longer putting on the RitzPerhaps the rich like the middle class are sick of buying shit that is overpriced and have a better understanding of better value then previous middle class and top end class consumers.
Status symbols have changed.
It used to be watches and cars. Now it's your home, your pet and if your iPhone is the latest.
Everyone knows diamonds are shit and not rare at all and is pure junk.
Seriously when was the last time someone talked forever about the latest apple product to you - probably recently.
When was the last time someone other than a hooker gave two shits about your watch?
I still bet your life is worth less then your Air Jordan's in many areas of America.
I have 5 Tag Heuers that I doubt I wore 5 times in the last 5 years. Used to enjoy buying them. Now I don't even enjoy wearing them. Strange
Tags are stocking stuffers. ;-)
Yen is correct ...sell the Tags and buy 1 Patek Phillippe.
I ONLY buy genuine Fake Brands so I don't look like a cheap bastard.
It takes a little experience to spot a fake vs genuine:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1019598/An-idiots-guide-...
Tags look[ metalic] repilitian.
The face is under exposed. The bezel is too thick, the dial is hardly readable.
Where's those STIKS? Roman Numerals belong on sextants!
I have some low float heavily shorted mystery shares I will trade you for your watches.
Must be because everyone is buing iwatches and fitness tracking thingy's.
i-Junk
You just reminded me that I forgot to oil the barrels of my Wingmasters.
My Tenor Sax will remind ya.
I work for the NSA! c-me? Retards
Philippe Dufour
Besides the conspicuous consumption, there's excellence in their craft, may it survive yet again.
Seriously who needs a damn expensive watch, when we have a clock on are smart phone screen. Boss bought me a sports watch, didn't give me no batteries, said fk that still in box.
expensive is a relative adjective
for some people a Timex quartz with plastic band is expensive and for others a Patek Philippe Grand Complications Chronograph isn't
for some people, money is no object when they covet an object, and the more expensive it is, the more exclusive it is, which is another attraction
thinning out the herd will please them, makes it even more exclusive
for fashion's sake, for show, they don't need to be practical
Indeed.
I have a drwafull of watches,and like my drawfull of cuff links, only get worn once in a blue moon.
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Business loans for M&A not CAPEX.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-15/there-goes-final-pillar-us-recovery-loan-growth-paradox-explained
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Fed sees 2 bubbles
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
o Commercial Property higher than pre-2007 level.
http://nreionline.com/finance-investment/cre-prices-are-now-officially-above-pre-recession-peak
o Global Corporate Debt Market hits $5 trillion.
http://fn.dealogic.com/fn/DCMRank.htm
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
The exporting nation with massive surpluses is always dependent on the success of the nations it exports to as China has discovered since 2008.
The 1% are always dependent on the 99% that buy their products and services but show no awareness of this.
“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” Warren Buffett
This has rolled out globally with the Neo-liberal ideology.
The 1% have gone to war against the 99% (aka the global consumer base)
This is what the 1% winning looks like – global recession.
How is the global consumer base?
1) The once wealthy Western consumer has had all their high paying jobs off-shored. As a stop gap solution they were allowed to carry on consuming through debt. They are now maxed out on debt.
2) Japanese consumers have been living in a stagnant economy for decades.
3) Chinese and Eastern consumers were always poorly paid and with nonexistent welfare states are always saving for a rainy day. Western demand slumped in 2008 and the debt fuelled stop gap has now come to an end.
4) The Middle Eastern consumers are now too busy fighting each other to think about consuming anything and are just concerned with saying alive.
5) South American and African consumers are busy struggling with economies that are disintegrating fast.
The 1% have nearly won.
Maybe not so much the 1%ers, but the wanta-be 1%ers. The wanta-be 1%ers are being hit hard. Know a guy that owned 4 stores making loads of money 15 years ago. Driving a new Mercedes yearly. Now struggling to keep the 2 stores he has going.
Know another guy who lost his sports bar out selling in this remodeling boom.
Speaking of the current remodeling boom, it's another thing to go bust.
I used to be into watches. Then around 15 years ago when my already shit eyesight started to fade I bought a big black and white timex at walmart for $24 and the indiglo was so damn useful I never took it off. Three years ago the watch was stolen in Asia and I bought another one in Seoul even though the price was $35 there. While I was in China I bought a fake IWC for a friend and a spare strap and I put the strap onto the timex. One evening I was in barnes and noble and some guy walked over to me and said "I collect IWCs." I told him it was a timex and I said I've had so many people come over to chat about the watch it's amazing. Even banged a rich asian chick who said something nice about it in an elevator.
Expensive watches confuse and amuse the hell out of me. Why do you spend 5 grand or so on a watch when a 40 dollar Timex will work as well? I have had 3 Timex watches over the last 30 years. All 3 are still running, altho the bands are very worn. A Timex says " I may not be rich but I have common sense" The money I save not buying toys is helping me reach the only true wealth in this effed up economy, the state of debt free :-)
I've got a lot of money, and I wear an IronMan watch, $50.
One reason I've got so much money is because my wife and I don't spend money on things like fancy Swiss watches -- we'd rather go hiking in the Swiss Alps.
I've got a lot of money, and I wear an IronMan watch, $50.
One reason I've got so much money is because my wife and I don't spend money on things like fancy Swiss watches -- we'd rather go hiking in the Swiss Alps.
Delete double post
Never delete .... nor apologize .... for double posts .... it's weak and a waste of time .... try to avoid them, of course ?
OK , I am still working on this net etiquette thing
Aging watch wearers .... one more thing we don't have to strap on ?
I'm in the antiques business. Basically retail with history. Things pass through my hands daily...things that were once owned by others, usually wealthier 'others'.
Today they are mine, and one day maybe, they will be yours. The point is that their original owners once plunked down serious cash for these wonderful things, and probably thought they'd own them forever.
But life goes on, and people lose money, lose jobs, eventually lose life itself. And all those wonderful things find new homes. No one has ever successfully taken it with them when they went.
Today's Swiss watches will eventually make their way into hands like mine, as all the gee-gaws and trappings of 'the good life' have done throughout history. Even Napoleon's penis ended up on the auction block, to be haggled over by strangers as a curiosity, end up in a 'collection'.
Go ahead and buy those over-valued trinkets. Like a brand-new car, they lose value as soon as you drive 'em off the lot. So YOU can suck up the depreciation...when the time comes, (and it WILL) then those things will end up in hands like mine, and WE will determine their true value.
Now, this is a watch....
http://reference57260.vacheron-constantin.com/en/masterpiece-of-watchmaking
You won't find this at Walmarts....and make sure to check your pockets, you don't want this BABY to go through the washing machine...