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Whither Gold? What The Banks Think
Despite soaring physical demand, and a clear unwillingness to give up precious metals, gold's "price" is on pace to close down for the 5th straight week at its lowest in 6 years. So where do the banks think gold goes next?
It seems The French really do not like the barbarous relic... but The Germans do.
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If it keeps dropping
I keep buyin
I think I saw a Wells Fargo analyst report saying $800 target for 2016.
The price of gold can be anything.
When they are trading 200M oz per day gross turnover in London on the LBMA spot market, you know its merely trading of digital artifacts.
The price we follow today is meaningless.
Crack-up coming.
Yahtze!
Where does Goldman say it will be?
Cause that's where it will end up.
And GS has the schmucks in high position to make it happen, even if done illegally.
Who cares what the price of paper gold is priced in USD? I know I don't...
The price of gold? In what, rubles? Euros? Pounds sterling?, CHf? yuan? As far as I have been able to ascertain from close, diligent, persistent and scientific study, my gold has gone.... nowhere. It still weighs the same, has retained its color nicely, ( ;-) ), and maintained a firm but mallable consistency.
The truth is that this is much like sitting on a merry-go-round and declare the world to be spinning. The question then, (once you get off the spinning apparatus), is "where is the US$ going?". In that light, the answer is, (and always has been), "it depends."
Be calm and stack on.
Ahh, from the "pull a number out of your ass' school of economic and financial anaylsis
1oz is still 1oz
Isn't that what all analysts do?
Not worried about the price of gold or silver in 2016. I'm more concerned with the price in say 2035.
I don't give a fuck, i'll just buy more,
Until zee gold, it his the floor,
Then, to buy, there ain't no more
Then fiat fails, and everyone's poor,
Then I celebrate, and buy me a whore.
Y'all can't get that shit in any store.
I'll take the over for a whole bunch, Alex.
Like I said this morning...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-20/spot-odd-one-out#comment-6817845
We don't need your useless TA to tell us what is going on in PM's Mr 4 week newbie.
Try expanding your horizons a bit if you're gonna talk gold issues around here.
welcome to fight club
OK Miss Piggy. I have been visiting this site since it came online. It used to be for traders, not loosers.
Is that Tomato on your face?
altar boy blood
I see many traders, and one loser, the talking mule.
Minus one for post count, Francis. Don't be such a self promoting whore, m'kay ?
Kool...
i will keep buyin until the casket drops...
Death To the MoneyChangers.
No Caskets needed as they are digging their own graves.
Kool...
i will keep buyin until the casket drops...
Death To the MoneyChangers.
apologies for double post....
If we are talking Comex, $0 with a $2000 premium for physical.
ive been buying gold coins every month as part of my monthly distribution along-side my 401k stock & bond purchases. i view gold & guns just like condoms; better to have 'um & not need 'um, then need 'um & not have 'um.
oh, and to any liberal troll stopping by who says something like "its not a currency" ... i say "1-day, u may find it to be the ONLY currency ... you know, if you like to buy STUFF" ... if they ask to elaborate further, i ask 1 question: "what happens when the duration on all these global government bonds is up & the countries can't pay back the principal because global growth is non-existant or negative (1) and where are these guys going to get their revenues from when most of the emerging & middle east countries are tied mostly to oil which has imploded & can't go higher with weak-to-negative global growth and the worlds oceans stuffed with double the super tankers year-over-year full of oil vats (oh, and land storage topped-off as well) ... please take selfie & post to ZH so i can see when ur head explodes.
to the "there is no inflation anywhere so why would you own it???" im 38. when i started at my firm here 14 years ago, my healthcare was $325 a month, now its $775. average rents in my area for a 1-bedroom then was $1000-1500 range, now its $2500-3000. my college when i graduated was $23,000 a year, now its $37,000.
But, but, the .gov folks say there's no inflation. (liars)
And Obamacare is affordable..... And no boots on the ground in Syria... Taking our troops out of Iraq ...... yeah, yeah, yeah.
au contraire.
les francais sont tout simplement realistes.
GOLD = $925
SILVER = $13
I'm pretty much doubling down on silver. The last five or so years have been a veritable bloodbath for me. But yet I keep buying, physical and paper (where I have to) on the belief that this righting of the ship will be unlike any other.
-Argenta
I have done the same doubling from 34 all the way down to 15. But I don't feel like doubling down on 1000 ounces any more. I actually have come to hate Silver. (But strangely not Gold).
Silver isn't money. I don't know why you guys want to conflate silver with gold. Silver has some value but when it's SHTF time and afterwards, gold will again be the real money. Silver is a commodity.
Disagree,
Gold and Silver are both money. Silver actually satisfies as money better than Gold simply because there has historically been more of it.
Gold is money but its primary fucntion is as a store of wealth.
If you look at the Silver denaris, the 30 pieces that were given to Judas, and more recently the use of silver as money in the late 1800's in the US and as a base currency up until 1964 you will see that both metals serve a purpose.
If you were to revalue the current US gold supply (if it exists) then gold would be valued in the thousands. This does not lend itself to be easily used as a medium of exchange as well as Silver might be at say $250 an ounce
yeah...ok
might wanna open up a history book or 2 over the weekend...
or maybe u just stumbled into the wrong post...
either way- whateve man.
When I had to transport my silver in a case with wheels I decided to switch to gold. I can now flee with what is in my pockets.
Seriously...I had a safe with 100Oz bars and bags of junk silver...I could not carry it all...2 or 3 trips from the car to the LCS....I left with 1/75 of the weight and the same $$$value.
Gold, compact wealth, just add water and season to taste.
$50,000.
Priceless
So basically nobody knows. Got it. I say $50,000. Let's average everybody's guess and call it there.
$1,100 is near the wtd avg put strike price of global gold producer hedges, so this is another hopelessly banal "forecast" by the "banks."
Gold is where money goes to rot and die.
money is rotting and dying thanks to your local central bankers. but hey, if your the type of guy who likes taking advice from the same clan that said "housing always goes up" and "subprime is contained", thats cool ... some of us realize these things sometimes take time to build-up before they blow. kinda like housing unless you think the bubble started in 2004 then blew in 2007 OR maybe it got started with a little something called the "fair family act" in 1992 and gained traction with leaving rates too lo for 2 long. then when the fed raised rates several times STARTING in 2004, that lit the fuse for the blow-up that occured several years later.
guess it all depends on how u look at things
You posted some good points, but not relevant to investing.
Here is how I look at investments, PMs in particular:
PMs have high transaction latency, high transaction cost AND high storage cost
PMs pay ZERO interest
PMs can and do lose value, since 2011 they have lost HUGE value and will lose a lot more
PMs are obviously a favorite of the luxuriously wealthy who do not need income and have so much capital that they can afford losing large amounts of it, all to speculate and gamble and make political statements.
You don't invest in Gold...
PM storage cost is my house. if they can make it past me, then can have 'um cuz i ain't gonna be able to use 'um after that anyway
as for interest, what good is interest if the principal is going to be whiped-out? i do purchase bonds & dividend paying stocks every month. that comes with a caveat tho; ive been working for 15 years & everything ive invested & traded since then, i cashed-out and moved to the sidelines this past year so basically, all fresh $ gets pumped-in while all the old $ is waiting for IF there is a blow-up. unless they take rates negative, how do we not enter a deflationary environment as far as stocks and bonds are concerned? if they raise rates, the dollar is gonna rip and oil is gonna tank (again) which is why they can't raise rates. however, if they take rates negative here in the states (which i believe will happen in the next 2 years), i believe the crisis of confidence kicks-in. thats my base-case because i for the life of me can't figure out how a $19 trillion debt & growing ever gets paid back or financed.
1 of the only ways i see to make $ going forward is trading in & out of these things; don't get married to a side (long or short) or stock. i just think that with the lack of investable vehicles, stocks are the game but its rent VS buy on both the long & short side. don't get greedy and when your wrong, admit it & get out fast.
as for the interest arguement, would be nice to get back to 4-5% so the elderly are able to retire. me, im already wedded to the notion im never retiring because there will never been a secure level of interest ill feel safe sitting back & throwing it on cruise control for. but then again, im not built to sit around 7 days a week. 2 is plenty for me and the other 5 keep me honest.
Yes, we are definitely entering an era of deflation in the prices of commodities and goods. The world has huge over-capacity of production and huge under-capacity in ability of consumers to pay for goods, services and debt.
The level of federal debt is irrelevant at this time - all that matters is the amount of the payments, same as in car loan or mortgage for a proletariat, and the federal government has quite easy capacity to continue making the payments, especially with the FED keeping the interest rates crushed, eager to buy as much debt as the treasury wants to issue, and the Congress having lots more capacity to confiscate earnings under the euphemism of "income taxation".
The great mythological fantasy promulgated by the PM carnival barkers is that a hard crash is both inevitable and immanent, and that the crash will make treasuries and the USD "worthless", therefore any "prudent, rational" person would convert their valueless fiat into the savior metals = pure hype just to promote sales of their product.
PMs don't go to zero.
Paper claims on creditors, not so much.
Fiat paper currency - always.
Would love to see what this same chart looked like (one year outlook) going five years back to see biases/who's getting the inside feed from the CB/BBs.
Geopolitical Fear + the unknowns of China's physical holdings and their intents with it + U.S. foreign policy insanity. Those are the drivers. Everything else is fairly well noise.
If one stops to think for a moment... Shit out there (geopolitically speaking) is on a razor's edge. And that doesn't begin to factor in unseen or under-reported stress in the banking sector, or any other number of 'smaller' issues that could (and would) cascade within a matter of days into a full-on panic. At that moment, the memories of 2008 race back to the front, boosted with a full shot of nitrous...
There would not and will not be any physical gold or silver to be had, anywhere at any price. That's what Fear does.
Asking the banks where the price of gold is going.
That's all you need to know about that chart.
What do they know that you don't? Upcoming dump of unknown gold reserves?
Excuse me are these the same banks that got their butts handed to them in 2008? BTW what is their forecast of COMEX reserves and what are the implications of the COMEX forcing a cash settlement on someone demanding physical? No comment on that from the "analysts"? So there is no physical / paper gold divide? Would a physical only market drive gold higher or lower? So the gold market is not over levered with speculative paper? What will be the implications for the world monetary system if somebody decided to back his currency with gold or silver for that matter? When you have more and more paper futures chasing an ever dwindling supply of underlying do you have a devaluation of the futures contracts? Bring us the analysts, me and my fello Ztards have questions to ask.
a d
Having the only gold backed (in the gold standard way of promising a certain weight of gold for a certain value of currency) would be an invitation to slaughter. Your gold would be gone in a day if you priced it too low...if you priced it too high you might get some gold but your coutry would be flooded with your own currency.
...now...if you mean 'backed by gold' like the euro is (with gold held on the balance sheet marked to market...that seem to be working fine..) At this time, with the existing gold derivative market it is hard to see that it makes much of a difference at all. If the dollar were to collapse however then the Euro would still have gold as its only asset on the balance sheet. Once it was realized that the Euro was the only functioning trustworthy currency for international and that gold was its only reserve...wel I suspect the Euro price of gold would rapidly rise and the dollar price...well in this scenario the dollar is gone...so who cares?
The Euro is not trustworthy because it is not a national currency. It is has more in common with a Soviet collective farm than anything else.
After the ZH article on 250x the amount of paper ETF's a couple of months back makes you wonder what level of leverage in paper will gold finally achieve ... 1000x, 2000x, 10000x. Then if the bubble is popped we get the modern day gold rush rising to 250x the current value just to sort itself out.
The market price of gold can't rise as it is tied to all other commodities. For it to rise then silver and copper and palladium etc would all have to rise together...it would likely be the beginning of a hyperinflation.
Gold on the other hand could be selected by the central banks (or the BIS) and revalued to save the balance sheet of all the banks. This would leave the other commodities untouched.
Think about what central banks will do....
....if there are no central banks in the future we will be looking at Mad Max...a world without an effective means of commerce...no jobs, no goodies and just the bare essentials that each region can produce. How things will be paid for will be a real problem. They will probably re-invent central banks.
Great!....Gold at $50,000 ounce means I can buy another 850Koz. of Silver at these prices.
As much as I like gold, it is one of the few things I have no paper price prediction on. I think oil higher. I think USD lower. I think stocks remain propped. I think bonds keep rising and eventually get negative rates. And all of it based on what has to happen, not market forces. Gold is headed for a reckoning. But what the reckoning looks like in this fake market is unknown to me. The gold game will play on until it cannot play on any more. In short, I accept all paper markets are completely broken and doing only what CBs and governments need them to do.
Who cares - there is no 'market' only the collusion of banks.
Whatever happened to Libya's gold?
There have been few times in my life when I have had a strong premonition, an instinct, about something. When I picked up a "Daredevil #1" comic book, I knew that I had a winner and would make good money. When I was in investing in stocks and making money, my instinct was dead on until Obama had his dinner with the gang of thieves that were CEOs of the TBTF banks. Prior to my being laid off at a 500 firm because they changed strategy, I knew it was going to happen.
Now, my instinct is going crazy saying there is a danger out there that has not been seen before. I don't know what it is. But I smell the burning going on without seeing the flames. I hear the cackle and popping of burning tinder without smelling it. My adrenaline is ready to flood my system because fight or flight is primed.
Brothers, be aware, something is going on and it is dangerous. Prepare yourselves.
Someone tell me again how I preserved my wealth or preserved my purchasing power by buying and holding a whole bunch of silver and gold from 2010 to 2013. How that was better than just hoarding cash.
They'll say to buy it when it's going up. Derp.
So the banks think gold is going down and up. It all makes sense.
What I learned today from ancient Rome. Bronze is money.
$9000 USD before the end of the next Presidents administration. It will remain at that price for 1 day and then open the next day at $4500 SDRs.
Incredibly bullish CoT report. Outstanding!
While the citizens stood on guard for the official confiscation of their 1oz. coins, the price suppressors unofficially confiscated their thousands of tons. What about that?
Personally, Other than Spiked and studded leather, piercings, and tattoos Gold looks very good on Black apparel.