This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Long, Cold Winter Ahead
Submitted by MN Gordon via Acting-Man.com,
Not Immune
Cold winds of deflation gust across the autumn economic landscape. Global trade languishes and commodities rust away like abandoned scrap metal with a visible dusting of frost. The economic optimism that embellished markets heading into 2015 have cooled as the year moves through its final stretch.

If you recall, the popular storyline since late last year has been that the U.S. economy is moderately improving while the world’s other major economies – Japan, China, and Europe – are rolling over. The U.S. economy would power through. Moreover, stock prices had achieved a permanently high plateau.
Growth in global trade has been slowing down for some time. This chart is slightly dated, but in US dollar terms, global export growth has recently turned deeply negative – click to enlarge.
As we noted yesterday, this is not the time to be hiking rates...
But somewhere between collapsing oil prices, dollar strength, and consumer lethargy the economy’s narrative has drifted off plot. The theme has transitioned from one of renewed growth and recovery to one of recurring sickness and stagnation. Mass malinvestments in U.S. shale oil, Brazilian mines, and Chinese factories and real estate must be reckoned with.
Price adjustments, bankruptcies, and debt restructuring must be painfully worked through like a strawberry picker hunkered over a seemingly endless furrow row of over ripening fruits. Sore backs, burnt necks, and tender fingers are what the over-all economy has in front of it. The U.S. economy is not immune to the global disorder after all.
More evidence is revealed each week that the unexpected is happening. Instead of economic strength and robust growth, economic fundamentals are breaking down. Manufacturing is slowing. Consumer spending is soft. For additional edification, let’s turn to Dr. Copper…
The Void of Worldwide Non-Activity
Dr. Copper – the metal with a PhD in economics – is always the first to know which way the economy will go. Copper’s broad use in industry and many different sectors of the economy, ranging from infrastructure to housing and consumer electronics, makes it a good early indicator of economic activity.
Copper, monthly over the past ten years. From $4,60/ lb. To $2.08/ lb. since the peak in 2011 – click to enlarge.
When copper prices rise, economic activity soon increases. When copper prices fall the economy often then stagnates. Thus, here’s the latest from Dr. Copper and his industrial metals cohorts…
As Bloomberg reported earlier this week:
“Copper plunged to the lowest intraday price since May 2009 on concern Chinese demand is slowing and as the dollar traded near its strongest level in more than a decade. Lead touched the lowest since 2010, while all industrial metals retreated.
The metal used in power cables and wiring lost as much as 2.1 percent to $4,590 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange before trading at $4,654 by 4:51 p.m. in Singapore, while futures slumped as much as 4.3 percent in Shanghai.
Codelco, the largest producer, has cut the premium it will charge buyers in China next year by the most since the global financial crisis, while Arc Resources Co. predicts a 10 percent drop in refined imports by the biggest consumer in 2016.”
No doubt, marking price levels last seen during the depths of the Great Recession would not be happening if the economy was strengthening. If demand was robust industrial metals prices would be going up. Instead, they continue their slide into the void of worldwide non-activity. Stocks may soon follow…
The Long, Cold Winter Ahead
The last time copper prices were this low, in May 2009, stocks were also much lower. Yet, today, they’re at extremely lofty prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently over 17,500. Back then, the Dow was less than half that…it ranged in the low 8,000s.
In other words, stocks are still up while the economy is slowing down. Perhaps the economy is taking a brief pause before roaring back to life. Most likely it’s hunkering down for the long, cold winter ahead.
Financialization, namely massive amounts of leverage, has made the disconnect between the stock market and the economy extend wider and longer than ever before. Maybe another speculative melt up is ahead. Who knows? Maybe DOW 20,000 or 30,000 is in the cards.
With enough monetary deception anything’s possible. But, nonetheless, gravity still exists. Stocks cannot go up for ever. After a six year bull market, accompanied by a lackluster recovery, stocks could return to prior levels that were in line with present commodity prices. Remember, just a few years ago, Dow 8,000 matched up with current copper prices. Soon it likely will again.
- 370 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -






So......go long cold?
News Flash: The Stock Market is Fixed. A Scam. A Ponzi scheme. An Figment of the Imagination. A House of Cards. A ...
See the Real Dow here:
http://showrealhist.com
" Change you can bereave in. "
Kudos. I wish I'd said that.
Don't worry, the banksters have one "Final Solution": they will print and distribute thousands of billions of dollars to "fix" deflation. Probably double what they have created since 2008.
Dr Copper, the Marcus Welby of economics. (Something for the young ones to Google this fine Sunday morning.)
Yet another show that couldn't be put on television these days. Doubt me? Go back and watch a few episodes. There's probably four P.C. violations before the opening credits finish rolling.
I absolutely detest this brave new world where we must all act and behave alike. Liberalism really is a mental illness- where all of the conspirators have thin skin and are just a bunch of victimized pussies.
Yeah, where people constantly whine, catastrophize, stereotype and belittle those with different perspectives from themselves. Oh wait, that's what you're doing. Never mind...
Huffpo anxiously awaits your return. You go now, you write too much.
Everything points to massive manipulation by the Fed. Mao said "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun".
He was wrong. Now world and political power flows from manipulating markets with fast computers.
Political power grows out of bullshit.
Political power grows from the ability to create money out of thin air.
Ultimately, political power does indeed grow out of the barrel of a gun. To confirm this fact, try not paying your taxes.
Meanwhile, get ready for the Brave New World of SDRs:
"In the next panic, you should expect SDRs to be issued in the trillions to provide liquidity. That issuance, when it comes, will mark the end of the dollar’s reign as the leading reserve currency." — Jim Rickards
http://agorafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/AWN_TheOnlyWay.pdf
SDRs will be for international trade. Issued as computer currency. At some point everyone in the world may be required to have a cell phone (electronic jail cell) and all buying and selling will be required to be credited and debited through the phone. Maybe the phones will be strapped to the hand or to a head band. And have 666 printed on them. :-)
Yes, SDRs will be exclusively for international trade, all national currencies being for domestic use only. Moreover, as Rickards goes on to say:
In this scenario, the alternative to the dollar can be as familiar as gold or land. It could be one of the new digital assets such as Bitcoin. The dollar alternative could even consist of natural resources such as oil or water.
When it comes to hyperinflation, the alternative doesn’t matter that much. What matters is that investors will dump dollars as fast as they get them. The resulting turnover (what economists call velocity) will feed on itself and lead to skyrocketing dollar prices. You shouldn’t think of hyperinflation as prices “going up” (although that is literally true).
A better understanding is that assets, goods and services have a constant real value, while the dollar itself is collapsing. That dollar devaluation is the real source of “higher prices."
Some have argued, that 666 refers to a geometric shape, that has 6 points on 6 triangles, surrounding a 6-sided polygon (hexagon).
The Bible interprets itself.
Many do not understand the meaning of 666, but to those who have studied under the Holy Spirit, 1 Kings 10:14 (and the remainder of the chapter, as well as chapter 11) and 2 Chronicles 9:13 shed all the necessary light.
http://www.hornes.org/theologia/mark-horne/what-is-the-worth-of-666-tale...
Pay attention and read the links posted in the first comment.
You should then understand all the implications of 666, the mark of the beast (out of the sea).
"By way of deception..."
The guns come in when everything collapses. US isn't there yet. Mao took over because the other tyrants couldn't effectively lead or pay their armies. Have to do both. Effectively lead. Must pay. Minimum level of competence. Makes you wonder who is the real power in North Korea. The US is only poorly run in comparison to what it was in the past. Electing Hillary shows how effective the US tyrants are. What I don't understand is why they want her elected. Same reason Caligula wanted his statue in all the Synagogues?
I couple of guys with guns altered the political landscape just the other day. Mao was right.
"Remember, just a few years ago, Dow 8,000 matched up with current copper prices. Soon it likely will again."
No way man... We got the FAANG economy (I included AAPL in there because - well, because they're cool & stuff, so why should't they be there...?), and I have the 101 traffic from S.F. to S.J. to Prove it...!!! It's all about Apps & Ray Kurzweil 3.0 shit now...
'/s'
A hard rain is gonna fall...and no high ground anywhere........
"How high's the water, Ma? Six feet high and risin'."
To JC, we're all the guy in the rear.
Actually, that water looks like...dirt.
Long cold winter...
Well, at least we're still #1 and Americans are very very exceptional:
Pregnant Woman is Murdered and Her Baby Ripped from Her WombA woman in New York was fatally strangled and stabbed on Friday before the killer ripped her baby from her womb.
Police arrested a woman at the scene who they believe murdered the Bronx 22-year-old before taking the child in the bloody altercation and allegedly claiming it as her own.
Sutton - the victim and childhood friend - had her throat slashed as well as being stabbed many times over according to the murderer as she explained to police. She performed a crude caesarian cutting our and removing the fully developed baby. The due date of the victim was 2 December 2015.
http://news.yahoo.com/pregnant-woman-murdered-her-baby-152801255.html
...and deep, too.
John Kerry channels Paul Ehrlich with doomsday predictions of climate change and threats to national securityhttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/21/did-john-kerry-just-threaten-clima...
Background: http://dailybail.com/home/john-kerry-comes-out-swinging-on-climate-chang...
http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/11/19/scientists-declare-un-climate-sum...
Growin' up in a biosphere
No respect for bad weather
There's still roaches and ants in here
So resourceful and clever
Her great grandfather saw the future
Didn't know nothin' 'bout panic
He certainly prob'ly thought
That it was unthinkable
Trace a' mint waftin' in from the north
So we don't fuck with the (King's HWY) 401
It's bigger than us and larger than we bargained
I guess it's just not done
His great grandfather worked for Goodyear
He'd see the blimp on Sundays
I wonder what the driver knew
About making rubber tires
Terrarium, terrarium
The submarines out there, under the ice
Avoiding and courting collision
An accident's sometimes the only way
To worm our way back to bad decisions
My great grandfather was a welder
He helped build the Titanic
He certainly didn't think that it was unsinkable
Building up to the larger point
With an arrogance not rare or pretty
We don't declare the war on idleness
When outside it's cold and shitty
We stay inside and try to conjure the fathers
Of the injured and faking
If there's a glory in miracles
It's that they're reversible
Terrarium, oh, terrarium
Songwriters
Paul Joseph Langlois;Gordon Edgar Downie;John Philip Fay;Robert Edwin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhMcnGJmMUk
-------------------
Happy "retirement" RUSH : ) 2015
Bullish cold for winter
"With enough monetary deception anything’s possible. But, nonetheless, gravity still exists. "
Gravity rolled up its tent and went away from the markets, muttering, "Fuck it" ages ago. Don't know when he'll be back, but when he does it's going to be epic.
There's enough delusion perpetuated daily by the msm to make this fantasy last longer than any sane person thought possible. A casual glance at the fundamentals is now beyond the, "I don't fucking believe my eyes" stage: Unfunded Liabilities in the hundreds of trillions in the US, Off-book derivatives in the hundreds of trillions (1.5 Quadrillion dollar timebomb globally?), fudged and botched GDPs, employment rates, inflation rates, buybacks, ZIRP, NIRP, and QEx. With the ever impending shadow of global war schemed by the neocons to escape retribution for their works.
Cracks in the facade of the markets used to be glacial, but any structural engineer worth his salt can see an imminent collapse ahead that cannot be plastered over with fake smiles and 'awesome' propaganda.
Phrases about gravity affecting the financial markets or economy make me cringe.
Fiat currency, stocks, economies are all massless things. Gravity doesn't have any effect on them. Never has never will.
You prefer mathematics I presume, and yet it is math that weighs upon the financial superstructure like gravity. Me, I liken it to mass psychosis, and previous denials of reality. Mississippi, tulips, South Sea, sock puppet animals and floating houses. Bring on the brick wall behind the curtain!
even a misspelled Mark Twain should be able to understand literary analogy...
How many people can you exclude from "the market" before it loses its power?
yellen
IT'S GLOBAL CLIMATE WARMING CHANGE!
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!
copper schmopper - the new economy is more fiat and services, besides... copper has been replaced in many ways... not reliable indicator anymore
You're correct.The bellweather is silver now,the new copper.
Oh wait......
But wait! If copper gets any cheaper, they can actually use it to mint pennies again! lol
Yeah they'll get to that right after they start putting silver back into quarters, They don't want any wealth or potential wealth returning to the 98%, ever. The bankers funded monarchs to destroy them with debt, but that freed the surfs, now the bankers are the monarchs and they won't be denied their serfs (us).
As long as the twin muslim clowns Obongo and Brennan are in power... go long ISIS.
What do you guys think would happen, if the government announced a new dollar at a rate of 1:10 and circulate it? Similar to what has happened in many European countries in the past...would it be possible, feasible, digestible?
Kind of a first step to reigning in the ever expanding deficit-thus buying more time for the elite to continue their trajectory to ever more riches.
I think it's a given that we'll get a new or revalued currency at some point. I can't see them not trying that.
And I think they have been preparing us for this, in the way they keep redesigning our currency. How many different designs have we seen in the past few years? The other day I was examining some change, and was amazed at how many different friggin' quarters there are!
So they have been prepping us for currency changes by introducing all sorts of new designs, so that when they get around to introducing the NEW dollar, most will simply shrug it off as yet another design change.
If the new dollar's purchasing power is reduced by 90%, I guarantee you, the sheeple will not "shrug it off."
Yellen is that you?
Nice trial Balloon, if it slips past Zero Hedge... go for it...
"But, nonetheless, gravity still exists."
Bull $hit!
Gravity is a total conspiracy perpetuated by physicist all around the world who just want to rake in the sweet funding available to them.
It was all cooked up by TPTB to keep the 99% down.
;-}
This is funny. Now that we're really going to have cold weather...
The Chinese construction boom used up a shitload of iron, concrete and copper. That slowed to a screeching halt.
Maybe China can drag us down but for the rest this indicator doesn't convince me.
And I believe we'll soon get a crisis like we've had them every 7 years but we're going to war! That's always bullish for a economy... untill the bills need to be paid but the first years are mostly bullish.
everything gonna change when da shootin starts!!!!
Shoulda never taken their fucking paper in the first place.
That strike thing starting to sound good yet? Just saying this game goes on as long as we play it.
The stall then a right turn into barter town. Then we teach the free shit army a hard lesson. Produce or die.
Can you eat copper? Please, with almost 8 billion people all competing for a higher standard of living and all the resources that makes that possible, there is no such thing as "deflation".
Another idiotic piece.
ZH's beloved Putin
Reuters Reveals Identity of Putin’s Billionaire DaughterThe Reuters news agency on Tuesday said it had identified one of the daughters of Russian President Vladimir Putin and claimed that she and her husband controlled assets worth about $2 billion, including a seaside villa in Biarritz, France, estimated to be worth about $3.7 million.
A senior executive at a state-owned Russian bank told Reuters that Putin's younger daughter, whose identity has been shielded from the press, used the surname Tikhonova. The report said Katerina, 29, was the “spouse” of Kirill Shamalov, son of Nikolai Shamalov, a banker and longtime friend of the president.
According to Reuters, the foundation of the couple's wealth is a stake in a major gas and petrochemical company that Kirill acquired from Gennady Timchenko, another longstanding friend of Putin.
The pair's villa in Biarritz was also bought from Timchenko, Reuters said.
The revelations undermine claims by Putin's supporters that while some of his acquaintances may have amassed fortunes during his 15 years in power, the president has not abused his position to enrich himself and his family.
Come on, stop beating around the bush and tell us why you fully stand behind the statement that earned Hitlery her nickname!
caconhma
so you're saying somebody wrote (no link provided)
Putin's daughter married into wealth,
and Putin is supposed to be guilty by association because
he is "acquainted" with Russian billionaires from the drunkard Yeltsin days
of corrupt "Chicago school economics".
This clearly seems a matter of domestic political propaganda
for Russian citizens to evaluate,
and judging by Putin's reported high popularity, they already have.
FYI: What is important to nearly all ZH readers are Russia/Putin's FOREIGN POLICIES,
and recently for that Russia/Putin deservedly get high marks, unlike the USA.
This is old news reported in the Globe and Mail weeks ago. A house worth 3.7 million? That's any old shack in a good location these days. And Katerina was smart to marry up. Her sister is a researcher at Moscow U, she isn't loaded.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/vladimir-putins-daughters-behind-the-wealth-and-connections-of-russiasczarlings/article27185579/
Amateurs compared to the Clinton Crime Family.
Bernie Schaeffer calls it Ground Hog Day, (like the movie) a long cold day to last the rest of your life. Everyone is optimistic because market dips are just buying opportunities, even big ones like 29'. (forget the lost decade of the 30's, or the light at the end of the tunnel, which was WW2, another train.)
The central bankers soon had control of the levers of power. Bernanke studied the failure of policy in the 30's, raising rates too soon, and thank god the Fed hasn't done that. Absent another mass [creative] destruction of industry and wealth and the reparations, made by the one nation which avoided that destruction, perhaps all the low hanging fruit in the global economic growth cycle has been plucked? We're past the point where blowing everything up will give us new economic energy.
Maybe economic growth is going to be as slow as Fed policy and 2% returns may look good in ten years. If you bought a 20 year bond in 1999 at 5% you are still smiling. Nobody wanted them. ZIRP is better than NIR.
The complete loss of an economic class as everything tangible is thrown into the gaping maws of the banker created beast that never sleeps. Party (rehypothicate) on. . .
The Fed has blinded the discounting mechanism of the markets and has penalized anyone who put off consumption by saving, which would have added to the inventory of capital available for investment. Instead, the Fed has assumed the job of capital formation, but Fed "capital" is actually debt generated by the Fed, which in the short term smells like real capital to the markets, until the markets finally ask what are the assets backing that debt. The answer is likely a historical singularity, which is probably not a good thing.
So Mr Durden is into doom porn - and its pretty cold already. Starting to sound like this chicken little >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmNvo3ix-QQ
So do what people have always done, to endure Winter -- be it the natural or financial variety.
The long keynesian decline started decades ago.
And then there's the long hard war.
Ermagerd, Derflertion!
We wouldn't have any long cold winter if these asshats were ousted. Time to start finding ways to make it happen.
Long Cold Winter Ahead????
What are you talking about? We have global financial warming and the data to prove it.
The temperatures,, ahh, I mean the DOW is not going down. It is going to continue going up by few degrees, ..I mean percentage points...each year.
Things are upside down, inverted. I go to work in the morning thinking, "Right, I'm lucky I can earn a wage today, so I can live tomorrow and be comfortable - within reason", yet I don't have any confidence that anybody else is 100% in the daylight and laughing. Sometimes, it's like I'm just waiting for the next big moment, the balck swan to appear.
It will appear.
Stocks are up, economies are crashing. This isn't normal. For me, the patient has AIDS and the immune system is breaking down. Slowly. At some point the environment will kill the patient, purely because it cannot defend itself against normal everyday immuno attacks. There will just be no defense left, no guts. At that point things tumble downhill quickly.
How fast did Syria happen? Seems like weeks, but here it is. Next will be a revolt, we already have European cities in lockdown. Europe and the world is nothing more than a sick patient, waiting for a small but fatal infection to bring it down. Prevention would have been better than cure, but we haven't prevented it. Our society is sick, there is no cure and I'm just waiting for the major dramas to start. These aren't interesting times, they are curiously sinister and cynical times. There is no way what's happening in the middle east is happenstance, it's getting nasty and brutal as things escalate. Can't see this settling down but accelerating alarmingly.
AMOUNT OF 'POCKETS IN DEFLATION' GROWING! - NOVEMBER http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=80429.msg1577364#msg1577364