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Sitting Ducks In China's Bathtub - An Overture To World War III?
Submitted by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
It’s always been true, as Bourne said, that “war is the health of the State.” But it’s especially true when economic times get tough. That’s because governments like to blame their problems on outsiders; even an imagined foreign threat tends to unify opinions around those of the leaders. Since economies around the world are all weakening, and political leaders are all similar in essential mindset, there’s good reason to believe the trend towards World War III is accelerating.
Many politicians and pundits in the U.S. blame “those damn Chinese” for taking “our jobs” by filling Walmart with tons of cheap goods, and the swarthy ragheads for making the price of oil too high (usually, but now too low).
The Russians, the Iranians, the Taliban (who will soon reconquer Afghanistan) and ISIS (which is carving out a new nation-state from the ruins of Syria and Iraq) are permanent members on the list of Bad Boys.
But now, since the Obama regime has decided to “pivot to the East,” you can underline China’s name on that list.
The “pivot” being the U.S. government’s new focus on meddling in Asia, as opposed to meddling in the Middle East and Europe. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter says the U.S. will be the principal security power in the Pacific “for decades to come.” I’m sure the locals, including the Chinese, were thrilled to hear that.
It’s said that the U.S. government has combat troops (or advisors, as highly trained special ops guys are usually euphemistically termed) in about 100 countries. It’s hard to keep track of their latest “intervention”…although “interference” is a better word. Note that I said “they,” not “us,” in reference to Washington. The city has a life of its own and its interests are not necessarily those of the country it rules.
Let’s see…sending arms to a puppet government in Kiev to help put down a secession in Donetsk and Lugansk. Sending jets, and now ground troops, to Syria, which will quite possibly create an incident with the Russians. 150 soldiers to Uganda to fight the Lord’s Resistance Army and 300 to Cameroon to fight Boko Haram. And more troops to Iraq and Afghanistan to help out our “allies.” For the moment, they’re the best allies money can buy.
It’s hard to keep track of them all, with something new almost every week. But, on the bright side, war is nature’s way of teaching Americans geography.
So, with that in mind, we now have to learn where the Spratly Islands are. Let’s start with a map.
Map of the South China Sea Region (Photo: John Bretschneider)
You’ll note the red line. In 2012 China decided that the entire area, right up to the shorelines of Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, was part of its economic zone. The governments of all those countries also have claims to parts of the South China Sea, and the Spratlys in particular. You’ll also note the Paracels, another zone of contention, between China and Vietnam.
Believe it or not, from 1956 to 1972 (when he was jailed for his efforts) a Filipino businessman, one Tomás Cloma, also attempted to claim part of the Spratlys, and make it an independent country, Freedomland. This caught my attention, in that I was (very marginally) involved in three other island independence movements in the ‘70s: Nagriamel, Abaco, and Minerva. Those, however, are stories (all a mixture of tragedy, comedy, and pathos) for another day.
Until very recent times, the Spratlys were best known as a hazard to navigation, with about 750 islets, reefs, and sandbars, total land area about 1.5 square miles, spread over about 160,000 square miles of the South China Sea.
I’ve never been to the Spratlys. But their potential value is clear. It’s said up to 30% of the world’s fish catch comes from the South China Sea. And, almost needless to say, it’s conjectured that the area contains a lot of oil.
So, you’re probably asking yourself, “What is that to me?” The answer should logically be “Nothing, really, unless it’s a question on a quiz show.”
But the U.S. government, although it, as usual, has no dog in the fight, has decided to get involved. The catalyst for it acting now is that China is in the process of transforming at least seven reefs into usably large artificial islands, several with long airstrips.
I’ve looked at the history of who has used, and claimed ownership, of the islands over the centuries. All the adjacent countries have somewhat reasonable-sounding claims. And the Taiwanese, Filipinos, Malaysians and Vietnamese each have a military presence on one or more of the Spratlys. But only the recent Chinese efforts have drawn the U.S. government’s attention. Recently, they sent a guided missile destroyer, the USS Lassen, within the 12-mile limit of Subi Reef, which the Chinese are currently expanding. Reports are conflicting whether the ship was just innocently passing through, or trying to create a precedent.
I’d like to ask, how do you, I mean you personally, feel about that? I’d like to know. Scores of millions of Asian locals, who’d previously never even heard of the islands, and certainly can’t find them on a map, are getting worked up because their governments told them the islands were “theirs.” And now the U.S. is further complicating the matter. But here’s my take.
The Chinese seem quite out of line claiming the whole South China Sea as their economic zone. Shame on them. But how is that the problem of the U.S.? It’s the problem of the locals. Should the Chinese be able to build artificial islands? That’s a somewhat different question. I’d say, why not? Disputed or unclaimed land belongs to the person who uses it.
One thing is for sure: the U.S. government is asking for trouble flying military aircraft off the coast of China and sailing warships into waters they claim. How would the U.S. react if Chinese planes and warships were often seen off the West coast? Or if the Santa Catalina or San Juan islands developed independence movements that the Chinese backed?
The U.S. government feels pretty bold about its intrusion into the South China Sea, since no other government has a naval force even remotely comparable to its 12 aircraft carrier groups. But that boldness is foolish and unjustified. I’ve said for many years that those carriers are exactly analogous to battleships before World War II, or cavalry before World War I. They’re essentially sitting ducks, highly vulnerable to all manner of cheap, accurate missiles, both cruise and ballistic, that could swarm them en masse.
It will be a huge embarrassment to Americans (but a treat to divers a couple generations hence) when they’re sunk, and sprouting barnacles like the Japanese fleet in Truk Lagoon.
The U.S. knows that it’s China’s backyard, and they could sink any U.S. taskforce if they choose to. But they probably won’t. Why start a war when your enemy has a superior military, but you are growing your economy several times faster than he is? It makes more sense to wait…so it’s likely to remain a Mexican standoff, as opposed to an overture to World War III. But these things have a way of escalating unpredictably. In any event, it makes no sense to go to the other side of the globe just to provoke someone.
In the meantime, the U.S. carrier groups are prestigious, and great for sticking the U.S. government’s nose into far-off places where it’s not welcome. But they’re hugely expensive, at about $6 billion a ship, plus another billion or two per copy for its half-dozen escorts, plus another $200 million for each of the 50 or so F-35 fighters they’ll soon carry. Plus a few billion a year to keep each group operational. Not to worry on that score; the Chinese will surely lend the U.S. government more money to enable that.
There’s plenty of reason to be concerned about the roughly $1 trillion a year the U.S. spends on the military and “security.” Even though it’s more than the next 28 countries combined, it’s apparently not enough to keep America safe. In fact, it’s actually making the country less safe, by provoking and threatening other powers.
And if it doesn’t start a war in the short run, it’s going to guarantee a U.S. bankruptcy in the slightly longer run. All the “hawks” running for president this year (which is to say, almost every candidate) seem oblivious to the fact that, in anything but the briefest conflict, economic power completely trumps military hardware.
In conclusion, whenever you see a mention of the U.S. Navy and the Spratlys in the same paragraph, you’re seeing a reminder of an open vein helping to bleed America dry. And that’s the best case.
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If China had just moved the red line a bit, it could have gotten chunks of Philippines and Malaysia too.
Why would they want them? Neither country was part of the Chinese Homelands for centuries. On the other hand, China will never let Taiwan declare full independence. When Deng Tse Ping was asked what China would do if Taiwan declared full independence, his response was: better 1 hundred years of war, than a thousand years of shame.
Parts of the red line, China's claimed territorial waters, are 3000 km from China and less than 20 km from Malaysia and Philippines. Those nations will feel cheated. They will never agree to the Chinese claims.
Thay terk are jerbs!!
~"I’ve said for many years that those carriers are exactly analogous to battleships before World War II, or cavalry before World War I. They’re essentially sitting ducks, highly vulnerable to all manner of cheap, accurate missiles, both cruise and ballistic, that could swarm them en masse."~
That's one bad case of come-uppence to be learned.
taiwan never will nor does it want to declare independence so why even mention what is obviously exagerated smyoblism?
taiwan believes in reunification and '1 China' just as much china does... the disagreement is over whether or not the People's Republic of China joins the Republic of China, or vice versa.
Nuclear subs, and beyond that the "Rods of God" from orbit. Space is the new battlefront; that or nukes, God save us...
Hence the chance for more War.
MIC Types are dreaming of Dollars over that Region.
>>> Parts of the red line, China's claimed territorial waters, are 3000 km from China and less than 20 km from Malaysia and Philippines. Those nations will feel cheated. They will never agree to the Chinese claims.
yeah, they'll whine like puerto rico, then stfu...
That remains to be seen.
It is odd...
Malaysia, Philippines...Vietnam...all closer to this so-called "disputed" territory...yet everyone seems fine with China grabbing it...
When in Eastern Europe it is different...
Odd, that.
Some says that some of the Filipino elites were descendant from Ming dynasty officials that fled the Manchus, similar to how Taiwan is Chinese because of Koxinga and that sort of things.
And you know how Singapore's basically an ethnic Chinese exclave kind of also like Taiwan that "refused to be united under the Reds", so if those Mainlander get too ethno-nationalist some may again try something like what Japan did back in WW2 of "uniting the Asians", and what better place to start that off than places that's 20% ethnically Chinese overall like Malaysia.
Yet, it will actually take less than 100 days...
The Bahamas moved their red line earlier today and claimed all of Florida. HEY MON !!
LOL. And in the Bay of Pigs invasion, the CYA tried to move the red line and claim Cuba for TPTB in USA.
Fortunately for Cuba the Communists won that battle.
The U.S. knows that it’s China’s backyard
There are countries a bloody sight closer and its not their backyard?
Stone the flamin crows but you write some shit!!!
their problem... not ours... you send your kids (and cash) to die for them; I got to fix my house...
For many thinking Chinese, the USSA is nothing more than the British Empire 2.0, and will end up the same way. The Chinese do not forget the humiliaton forced upon her by the British and other colonial powers, and will not allow a repeat.
Opium Wars 2.0
(This time the drug of choice is debt.)
Bath Salts. They have been here for a while and they are cheap.
I will be glad when we finally hit the fan. US won't have enough money for a bloated military and will stop all this war mongering. Same thing happened to all the other empires in past history. Then someone else picks up the warring..
You're mistaken if you believe US will abandon military spending or relinquish military superiority.
It is the center of everything happening around you.
If shit gets real enough the majority of available financial resources with the exception of military (and perhaps food assistance) will be the host
Only food insecurity will stop this Mafia, and they know it
Food insecurity used to be called hunger until the PC crowd tried to make it sound less severe.
MIC is just itching for a war since the pullout of Iraq and the wind down in The Ghan.
any war that doesn't start with a trade boycott is as phony as a $3 bill
Modern wars start on U-Tube.....
Can't use those weapons any more, and that would assume a control structure that has genuine US interests in first place anyway...
Does a USD boycott count?
It's true China took jobs. But I don't blame the Chinese. We practically handed our jobs to them on a silver platter. We're allowing 200,000 Chinese a year attendance at our universities and finest research facilities. Only one of two things happens with a foreign worker educated at a US institution: that person stays in the US and displaces a US worker, or he goes back to China and does the same thing for less. Americans applauding this shit are applauding their own extinction.
Even Donald Trump heralds this sort of flagrant bullshit.
This is just the tip of the iceberg.
Who is this "we" you are part of?
I am not part of the globalist collective serfdom.
I am a part of the body of Christ.
And "we" never supported the globalist agenda.
That is some funny shit. Open Mic night at the Laugh Factory this week.
Carrier groups = OPERATION Pawn Sacrifice.
Ground force deployments in Syria = OPERATION Human Shield.
War is just an extension of politics and commerce.
Most of the TEA PARTY fakers in CONgress agree.
The Tea Party: The conscientious objectors, slap-happy to get assimilated and ride the GravyTrain.gov
dup
dup
The Chinese make Americans look like pikers. The PBoC is $21 trillion in debt, and Chinas' debt/GDP ratio is 204%.
The Chinese equity markets are a bigger joke then the U.S. and European equity markets combined.
At least Chinese GDP is mostly real exportable production. While US "GDP" is mostly bullshit financial activity which somehow is counted as GDP.
Net trade figures don't lie.
Trade figures may or may not lie; regardless the Chinese Central-Planned Economic Fraud has reached its Wile E. Coyote-running-off-a-cliff moment.
Completely agree. However, after the dust settles (globally) all the capital goods (ie factories, assembly plants, plant machinery - things that make other things that can be sold) are in China. Their planned economy with all the economic deformations that comes with government planning will crash and burn, but will recover thanks to their manufacturing. Wealth has to be manufactured, literally, and can't be printed into existence.
We in the West however will just crash and burn.
Correct China has income from massive tool and die and PCB manufacturing, and are just starting to sell products internally. Their gov debt is internal, US debt is external. When trade ramps finally move off dollar and the Petro dollar is exterminated once and for all, weath will transfer to China at a fast rate.
Most Americans will be working for Chinese employers in the next decade.
As Chinese and Korean businesses buy capital depleted US and EU businesses for a dime on the dollar.
True. However they can't produce enough food or have enough potable water for their population. How this all works out when/if the SHTF will be... interesting.
Do you believe their exportable production is susutainable for much longer?
China has been over developing to sustain that 7% GDP and now it's over.
What will they do as world demand decreases?
How do they keep the population employed moving ahead?
These are just a couple of legitimate concerns they're shitting their pants over currently.
They do have a shit ton of gold. Good on them
Where did you get those numbers?
link from credible source?
and isn't chine debt internal?
Majority of Chinese debt rumored to be owned by Regional Banks, and about 30% by public
The Rothschilds finance both sides, so if they want war, then they usualy get it.
The military brass LOVES overseas excursions - they get away from the wife and kids and get some pootang on the side...but, you probably think I'm kidding...
People seem surprised when I tell them the bottom 90% of the military is gangbangers, drug addicts, and wife beaters.
On the higher end of the spectrum, gay officers getting with elisted sugar boys... I've witnessed it all.
How I personally feel about it? Not so good, these people had 70 (SEVENTY) years to get together and sort out the matters that were kept out of treaties after WWII 'for later'. Had there been proper leadership in this world, that would have happened. But maybe the goal was to keep a point of contention, because after the ME etc, Iran, then Russia, America must find a new enemy to fight a war against. Always under siege, always fight, fight, fight.
America deems the area to be under their say-so, because Nixon and Mao had a deal. The US would not interfere in Chinese domestic matters and in return the Chinese granted the US hegemony over the rest of the world. This deal has not been officially cancelled, or has it ???
I'd love to see Vietnam lay the smack down on China.
That's ridicorus.
At least if ww3 starts, i hope it will be while im in south america, at least i wont be nuked
Dear Int. Man,
Let's see. We allow near unfettered Chinese access to Wal-Mart, they put tariffs on our cars, put our steel mills, textiles out of business and steal our software,
Hollywood movies, music, Pharma, tech, DOD secrets, etc etc etc. Now they're stealing islands so far from China they make Putin look good. Yet u write I’d say, why not? Disputed or unclaimed land belongs to the person who uses it. Has to be one of the stupidest thoughts since Balfour or Sykes-Picot. It is absolutely right to send our ships over; we simply need to bill the bene's for our efforts. Our problem is we launch indefensible strikes we look hyporcrites for the defensible ones.
200 real missiles and 800 decoy missiles overwhelm any defense force.
And China may be lauching them from anywhere... not only from the mainland.
why not just a 1,000 real missiles.
I read a variant of this story in the summer, how the government's debt in the USA is like $46 trillion and most of that is because of military and intel spending, http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/09/02/wall-street-and-the-military-are-... ... I also read the IMF report last year stating that China is now the #1 economy in the world, when purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to measure economies http://www.businessinsider.com/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-largest-econ... ... why is the Navy sailing around these islands in the South China Sea, they want to start WWIII?
If it was so easy to destroy them, why are the Chinese building their own carriers?
I wonder what sort of naval warfare studies has "Doug Casey" done to claim that "...those carriers are exactly analogous to battleships before World War II, or cavalry before World War I. They’re essentially sitting ducks, highly vulnerable to all manner of cheap, accurate missiles, both cruise and ballistic, that could swarm them en masse"?
The answer is NONE. The thoughts he's having on this and many other subjects are coming straight out of his anus.
so yer saying he's basing this on his turds that used to look like battleships and now look like carriers? Casey is an arrogant twit anyway.
Carriers are great for showing the flag, projecting power, helping out in disasters, and brush wars. In a real shooting match with the big boys even the experts say they are sitting ducks. The US claims they need a large navy to keep the sea lanes open and blah blah blah. Yet Somali pirates in rubber boats were running wild for years hijacking ships and getting hundreds of million in ransom cash that funded more terrorism before the US made a small effort against them. It was China and India that made the most effort. In the meantime the US was running 3 carrier groups in that bathtub of the Persian Gulf flipping the bird at Iran and couldn't be bothered to do it's job of keeping the sea lanes open and safe for navigation. If there really was a danger of a shooting war the Persian Gulf would be the last place for a carrier group to hang out as it would be suicide to operate there.
Sum Ting Wong, No Kan Swim.
The United States of America is a basket case economically.
$18 trillion in deficit, and completely insolvent. The prospect of World War Three is a means to an end for the Americans. On one hand they will generate funding for the MIC, but on the other hand they will fulfill their manifest destiny to be viewed by the entire world as incompetent as a failing defunct old worn out 'superpower' with no real economic power to speak of. In brief, America is a destitute
country with a failing bureaucracy, and a dismantled economic architecture, and an incompetent military industrial complex that has run amuck due to their dependence upon Wall Street investment houses that are also run by incompetent, and uneducated, so-called 'Economists'.
Taken together, Americans are sitting ducks in America's backyard let alone China's backyard. And one might wonder when Americans will tell NATO to get the fuck out of everyone's backyards including their own?
Please, let's move the conversation off Dream Street; EMs are the ones holding the bag on this global trade scam, and US and French paras can secure those bi?n ?ông airfields any time we want them to. We're exercising restraint to allow sufficient time for our Asian allies to achieve critical mass and mobilize in a Combined Joint Action. They have old scores to settle and want to play in this Game too, you know.
The US and all the majors goal is to acheive Global Goverment. It will take a war to acheive this mission. Out of chaos, comes order. Satan knows what he wants, and he is on his path of achieving his victory; your souls.
May be why it seems that "Just Us" and their minions are making desperate decisions.
I seriously doubt the USSA will survive the next decade.
West has shown one big carrot to China:
'Inclusion of Remnibi into IMF SDR'
'Big Carrot'? More like a Big Opium sample.
Once you take it, you're hooked. Opium Wars 2.0 - Fiat Debt
Obamma wants us destroyed. His incompetence has foiled him so far so he is enlisting the help of China and Russia.
I've noticed so often, Tyler is opposed to Ukrainian independence. After his own puppet won election, Putin lost Ukraine forever, and is now destroying RF, which is breaking apart as we speak. IF Ukraine can control his illegal invasion, it will likely surpass Russia's growth rate within a few years. Get used to it, Putin is a pussy!
Unless one compares him to Obama... lol
Please translate that into Russian then blow it out yer ass.
Ineffective. Back to propaganda school for you.
Now that you mention Puerto Rico, can we give that albatross to China?
They are all bleeding to death, except China has the bigger body so will take longer.
The ONLY reason the USA isn't Venuzuala right now is the USD reserve currency status.
The idea of a missile shield is fantasy. All know it.
No country is protected from overwhelming Nuclear missile obliteration if a nuclear power wanted it. All they can do is retaliate in kind, while they can.
Hence the first nuclear bomb sent from country to another will be followed by thousands, since you only get one chance at it, there is no second place.
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One thing is for sure: the U.S. government is asking for trouble flying military aircraft off the coast of China and sailing warships into waters they claim. How would the U.S. react if Chinese planes and warships were often seen off the West coast? Or if the Santa Catalina or San Juan islands developed independence movements that the Chinese backed?
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Because it's completely different.
Those are international waters.
End. Of. Story.