This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Argentina Throws Out The Peronists In "Historic" Presidential Election
“Today is a historic day. It’s the changing of an era.”
That’s what Mauricio Macri, the son of Italian-born construction tycoon Francesco Macri, told thousands of supporters on Sunday after winning the Presidency in a landmark election in Argentina. As Reuters notes, Macri, a conservative who served two terms as mayor of Buenos Aires, will become only the third non-Peronist President since the end of military rule more than three decades ago.

("Yes. Just... yes.")
The defeat of ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli is “seen as a rejection of departing leader Cristina Kirchner’s interventionist economic policies and a turn to the right after 12 years of leftist rule,” WSJ said on Monday. “There has never been a period in government with such tangible economic progress,” Kirchner lamented, adding that “it would be painful to see these achievements being eroded.”

("Wait, what?")
But voters apparently did not agree. High inflation, falling FX reserves, and a legacy of defaults cast a long shadow and in a testament to just how ready the market was to see a voter repudiation of Kirchner and her policies, a bevy of hedge funds racked up outsized gains starting late last month as the market cheered a strong showing in the Oct. 25 first-round election by Macri. Here’s Goldman’s take on what the new President will be forced to confront:
There are four main economic challenges facing the next administration: (1) the large fiscal deficit; (2) elevated inflation; (3) exchange rate overvaluation and unwinding of capital controls; and (4) a normalization of external debt conditions. But in spite of this categorization, these issues will have to be addressed together due to their tight interconnectedness. Moreover, advancing solely in one front could lead to further deterioration on the others.
Yes a “large fiscal deficit,” and by “large” Goldman means 7%. That’s a marked deterioration from the 2.2% surplus the country ran just ten years ago.

As for inflation, well, Goldman says it’s likely to “soon resume its rise” after falling to “just” 24% Y/Y in September.
“They gave me a raise in January, but the costs nearly doubled,” one voter said. “Yesterday I went to buy bread and it rose 20% from last week.”
Macri will also need to address the exchange rate. As WSJ reminds us, Kirchner “encouraged the sale of U.S. dollar derivatives by the central bank to contain rising demand for greenbacks,” but Macri says that strategy will likely cost Argentina “billions.” He “proposes a rapid lifting of most exchange rate restrictions to achieve a unified exchange rate that he expects would stabilize between the official and parallel parities (9.60 and 15.50 ARS/USD, respectively),” Goldman adds. But as The Australian wrote this morning, Macri's promise to lift controls on USD purchases and thus eliminate the black market for FX "would likely lead to a sharp devaluation of the Argentine peso [and] with low foreign reserves, the government would desperately need an immediate infusion of dollars."
While the new President vows to eliminate poverty and help ensure that all citizens “can aspire to have homes with running water and a sewage system,” some voters who remember Macri’s tenure as mayor of Buenos Aires are fearful of what a shift away from the Left could mean. “Teachers in the capital went through a lot of suffering,” she said. “We had to stage a very tough fight to secure wage increases. He thinks we are ranch hands,” Buenos Aires schoolteacher Laura Lemes told The Journal.
And then there is of course of the default "problem" which Macri intends to solve. Here's Bloomberg:
In the 14 years since the country carried out the biggest default the world had ever seen, international investors watched an economy that had long been one of their favorites turn into a pariah in global capital markets. Under the Kirchners -- first Nestor and then his wife, Cristina -- Argentina became best known for its byzantine foreign-exchange system, the seizure of privately-owned assets and the under-reporting of inflation.
Investor excitement is tangible, a rarity nowadays in a region that’s suddenly fallen out of favor. Companies, including Germany’s BayWa AG and Brazil’s BRF SA, are prepping to expand their presence in the country and Argentina’s benchmark stock index soared 30 percent in the past three months as traders anticipated a Macri victory. Even the country’s defaulted debt -- the government fell back into default last year on legal grounds stemming from the 2001 debacle -- has been rallying, with prices on benchmark bonds climbing well over par value. Eager to reinsert the country in foreign markets, Macri has said that settling the old debts will be a top priority after he’s sworn in as president on Dec. 10.
With 98 percent of the ballots counted, Argentine bonds extended their rally. The benchmark securities due in 2033 gained to a price -- which includes interest owed since last year’s default -- of 114 cents on the dollar, an eight-year high.
As Bloomberg goes on to note, "there’s no shortage of big-name investors -- George Soros, Daniel Loeb and Richard Perry, to name a few -- betting on Macri to successfully resolving the debt dispute and regaining access to international credit markets." A big part of putting the 2001 default (a $95 billion fiasco) in the rearview will be resolving a dispute with Paul Singer, who was seen by the Kirchners as a "vulture."
Below, find some further color from sell-side desks.
* * *
From Citi
At the time of writing and with 99.1% of the voting stations already counted, Mauricio Macri is Argentina’s new President Elect, after obtaining 51.4% of the votes in the November 22 second round. While Macri’s victory should not be a surprise, he won by a narrower margin than expected.
We are concerned the narrow victory may limit Macri’s room to deliver a series of much needed adjustments. The next administration will need to adjust FX, monetary and fiscal policy, in a context of an economy that is already contracting and seems to be heading to a new recession.
Strategy – Argentina bonds have rallied considerably in anticipation of a resolution of the long-standing holdouts conflict and a potential Macri victory. After the election, we think that spreads could move tighter yet most of the upside is behind us.
The most urgent challenge on the economic front is the FX policy, we believe. Over the last few weeks, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has tightened the FX controls faced by importers, has increased interest rates and has announced that the local banks will have to sell a fraction of their foreign currency denominated assets. The fact that the BCRA has been undertaking all these measures ahead of the second round reveals that the current FX policy is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. According to an article (which had a great level of detail) from the local newspaper La Nación (see “Afirman que las reservas del Banco Central entraron en un punto muy crítico”), the BCRA has USD25.9bn of foreign currency liabilities. Thus, the non-borrowed reserves are none, roughly speaking.
The challenge on the FX front is twofold. On the one hand, the ARS is grossly overvalued. On the other hand, there is a clear monetary imbalance. Regarding the real overvaluation of the ARS, we estimate that real effective exchange rate has dropped (appreciated) 44% since 2011. Thus, for Argentina to have the same REER than four years ago, the USDARS should stand at 17. A different approach would be to compare the evolution of the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USD in Argentina and other countries in the region. While the LatAm currencies (BRL, CLP, COP, MXN, PEN and UYU) real exchange rates relative to the USD have increased on average 36% since 2011, the USDARS has dropped 19% in real terms. Thus, from this point of view, the USDARS should stand 68% higher at 16.1.
On the monetary front, the next administration will need to deal with a monetary overhang – i.e, an excess of local currency. The monetary overhang puts pressure on the FX market, as people try to get rid of an excess of pesos by purchasing foreign currency – that is the reason why Argentina has FX controls, to prevent this from happening.

There is also a flows problem. Besides the accumulated stock of trapped pesos, money printing is out of control. This is the first time that a marked increase in BCRA’s interventions in the FX market has not led to a deceleration in money printing (Figure 5). As shown below, money printing remains unabated, with the M0 increasing at a rate slightly above 35%. Basically, this means that despite that the BCRA is absorbing pesos by selling foreign currency, the other sources of money printing have increased.
From BofAML
We see potential for a significant policy shift after this Sunday election, following 12 years of a Kirchner-led government. In our view, the incoming government has an opportunity to bring Argentina back to a sustainable growth path after years of inward policies, distortionary regulations, financial repression and capital controls.
We expect the next administration to remove capital controls and some inefficient regulations, while implementing a strong FX and fiscal adjustment to restore debt sustainability. We forecast true growth at only 0.7% in 2016, due to the fiscal contraction, the crisis in Brazil and lower commodity prices. But we expect growth to rebound to 3.6% in 2017 amid a confidence shock due to the policy shift and the return to international capital markets.
We expect the next administration to remove most capital controls within a year. The government will likely move faster to remove restrictions on dollars allocated for production (capital and inputs) and slower on stocks (arrears with importers of up to $9bn and remittances of trapped dividends for about $7bn at current FX). While we also expect restrictions on dollars to be removed for savers and tourism eventually, we would not be surprised if the government keeps some restrictions on these for a while if the financial situation is worse than expected. In this sense, the large negative position of the Central Bank in the FX futures market generate incentives to postpone a full FX-unification before the future contracts mature, to avoid realizing quasi-fiscal losses.
To stop the drain of international reserves, we expect the central bank to allow a strong depreciation of the official FX. We forecast the official FX at ARS13 and 16 by yearends 2015 and 2016, respectively. To improve the FX flow rapidly, we expect the government will negotiate with exporters the reduction of grain stocks, which we estimate at $4bn, offering a higher FX, elimination of export permits and an export tax cut of about 0.4% of GDP. Fiscal. The fiscal consolidation is a pre-condition to generate a confidence shock to stimulate investment and stabilize inflation and FX expectations, in our view. We expect the next government to reduce the fiscal deficit from our estimated 7.3% of GDP in 2015 to 4.3% by the end of the 2017, mostly by cutting subsidies by about 2% of GDP in stages in 2016 (see The fiscal gift). We estimate the government could also reduce the fiscal deficit by another 1.4% of GDP in two years, keeping the spending pace below GDP growth and cutting capex, more than offsetting a tax cut to exporters of about 0.4% of GDP.
* * *
The bottom line, as Jody LaNasa, the founder of the $1.5 billion hedge fund Serengeti Asset Management, told Bloomberg: "The question is whether this is going to be something like the rebirth of Argentina or another failed dream that people get excited about, but then they can’t overcome the challenges.”
- 535 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -





We can live in an Argentina without poverty
Free stuff.....for everyone.
No I don't know who's gonna pay for it.....I'm sure we'll figure it out.
Don't die for me Argentina!
Leftist lose? Shocking.
Turning right? How hard?
Hey, they find Hitler's body yet or what?
"Turning right? How hard?"
Yeah because an "Italian-born construction tycoon"...
...and "Goldman’s take", as well as supporting comments "From Citi" and "From BofAML"...
...and a final summary from "founder of the $1.5 billion hedge fund Serengeti Asset Management"...
blatantly spell another Supply-side, monetary policy, IMF ass-kissing Oligarch was "installed".
Quick, wave the fucking flag! Sell-out trolls!
uh, yeah, that last sentence.
Who cares about politics in S America? They care only about scoring.
The cheaper the better:
http://goo.gl/cyOvYY
Expect Macri to have to fight hundreds of thousands of civil servants who have had cushy jobs till now.
We got confused this time, because this kind of regime change usually requires a plane crash or at least a junta.
The joke will be on Argentina when what she gets for "turning right" is even more debt at even less amenable terms while Macri works on his drives and putts with the holders of said debt.
Turn right?
What does this mean? Back to whoring all their assets to the IMF?
"or another failed dream that people get excited about"
No shortage of that, even around here on ZH.
If any candidate says what the people want to hear, that's all they hear.
Messiah #1 came and did his destruction.
The grooming for the next "messiah" is under way, and many people who like to ridicule those who can't see through the Same Shit, Different Candidate play are lining up to kiss the hem of the next messiah's garment.
Great, the hedge fund vultures like Soros and Loeb are behind Macri. Macri is a dimwit with money who will likely become a "pendejo" for North American banksters. Even if the Peronist candidate had won, there is little anyone can do to change Argentina's situation, an also ran in industrial production with too many debts. What Macri will do is let his friends loot the country further, following the Peronist exemplar.
What is Macri's pedigree?
Does he have any connections with Goldman Sachs? The Bank of Italy?
This looks like an elite bankster win. I'll be curious if Argentina continues produce shipments to Russia, as Kirchner and Putin had a deal.
"We can live in an Argentina without poverty"
AS WE USED TO JOKE:
THE LIST OF THE PEOPLE THAT CAN IS ATTACHED BELOW...
Argentina is so rich in natural resources that it take a real genius to reach that level of economic disaster. Not even Bush would be able to eke out such misery in the midst of so much richness. At least this guy could manage a sport team successfully
They had a fully developed economy until they went against their own constitution and used public money to bail out a bunch of private idiots. That was the 1970s and it's been all down hill all the time since.
They should have elected and Icelander president!!
Fully Developed? Haven't they been serially bankrupt for about a century, back to the original Peron Mafia? I wouldn't call Fascism, fully developed.
You do know that those sports are rigged, much like his election, and the fate of Argentina, yes?
The Neocon/Neoliberalists are back in control. God help Argentina.
What choice did they have? Between neo-communists looting the country and running their currency into the ground and now this here? I'd say give Macri the benefit of the doubt. 12 years of Kirchnerismo is too much already and anyone with a sound understanding of South American politics knows that left-wing parties in the area are not particulary fond of handing over power. So this should be seen as a good step.
As I said, no ilusion regarding potential sell-out to Wall Street but true liberals have never come to power in that part of the world, unfortunately.
The choice between the two main parties in Argentina is a false dilemma. Only when she rids herself of the Central Bank and prints her own interest free currency, does the country have a chance of again prospering.
Generally I agree, but then this is not a problem of Argentina but a worldwide one.
Truly a world wide problem as the Banking Cabal tightens it's noose around those countries who do not submit to the dictates of the NWO and their dollar denominated Fiat.
We need watch only two things, which way does their debt to the IMF swing and where is their Gold stored, if they have any left.....
Imagine the carnage if Argentina demanded payment in physical Gold and Silver for every natural resource they exported and sold to the highest bidder regardless of their standing with the BIS and the IMF.
Instantly the western powers would send in their armies, to "save the children".....
Another Faulken spat will be fun to watch on the nightly news.
But this time Britain is a neutered queer that cannot only succeed in molesting little boys and fucking dead pig's.
There have been many true liberals elected to the credit of the peoples of South America.
You have perhaps been too removed by the planned isolation of TPTB to anything other than the lies of modernity. And, these truen liberals have been quickly killed off with few exceptions, Fidel Castro certainly high among those exceptions.
Try to recognize what opening your mind to change actually requires on your part. It requires recognizing the total lies of religion, science and government educational systems, among the many others.
They had no choice
Isn't that the idea or how it works? Choose either evil #1 or evil #2 and yet somehow expect there to be good and not evil. Quit voting already and quit feeding the worshiping the god's of materialism and Chinese trinkets. Eat when your hungry and buy only what you need; spend the rest on PM's.
That, and spend more time on your children than you do money.
The real question for Argentina is "whill it be a banker puppet state or will it be free?
There is a cost with freedom. One does not get invited to the banker circle jerk and satanic rituals.
Pssst.....walk like an Icelander.
If you get to close to Macri, you'll smell semen and notice he is covered in cookie crumbs; he's been at "the ritual" for awhile now; a puppet state to the last.
Ugly bitch
"Ugly bitch"
Go fuck Draghi, queer.
Kirchner too.
As Bloomberg goes on to note, "there’s no shortage of big-name investors -- George Soros, Daniel Loeb and Richard Perry, to name a few -- betting on Macri to successfully resolving the debt dispute...
I KNEW THAT GUY LOOKED LIKE A BANKER!
When will the name George Soros be associated with the evil he does...
Sometime after HRC is in the white house again
Was there a "Hand of God" involved in Macri's win? Maradona wanted to know.
His hand is in the affairs of men all the time and thankfully so, for left to ourselves entirely; well the restraints on behavior would be totally removed and there is a day coming when that actually happens and the result is 50% of mankind dies in a mere 7 years; we ain't seen nothing yet. In fact, if He did not intervene, He says that all life would be extinguished; that is how morally deprived we actually are.
Have you ever said and done something real bad that you did not think "was in you", but shocked you when it came forth...all of us have?! That was the tip of the iceberg.
Then the psychopaths of the world would like to thank you for the destruction of the Russian jet as well as the 2 Malaysian jets.Additional special thanks for the German jet that took a nose dive into the side of the mountain.
Let's not forget to give him thanks for the tsunami that hit Japan and the ongoing nuclear poisoning.
There is so much to thank for, I cannot possibly make a list, but honorable mention for all the misery in Ukraine, attacks in Paris, more misery in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya.
Here a chad, there a chad.
Not to mention the flying monkeys.
They have to get rid of the Communists first......that will be hard to do...they neve want to leave their cushy jobs and government incomes...good luck..I would like to buy their beef again....they dont export much anymore...an export tax killed them....
Slightly wrong. They need to get rid of the Kikes first. Other things will follow.
The world needs to get rid of Kikes, while Argentina is feeling the pain, in reality, we all are in the grips of the greedy, we just don't know it, yet.
Isn't Peronism a form of fascism, a corporation/government partnership with an authoritarian bent?
Really doesn't matter, every ideology seems to devolve into cronyism and corruption.
fascism -lite
Inherited too many Nazi genes.
This election was neo-Fascism vs neo-Liberalism (in the laissez-me do whatever I fucking want sense).
Great Argentina. You defeated Kirchner at the ballot box. Step 2: speedy trial followed by her being fitted for an orange prison jumpsuit. She will make someone a good husband/wife behind bars.
I see that even Argentines still think elections change things.
Another failed dream If no one buys their bonds for public works like sewer, water.
Kind of a bad time to have urban renewal. I mean, the global economy is going into a drepression and they think its time to party.
We must call an end to the debt.
Just stop paying it.
The inverse is many homeless iBoomers and newly minted Oliver Twists, but that OK. We’ve got guns!
We don’t need Free Eats programs when we have Smith and Wesson. Criss/Cross.
Ripe for the picking, Argentinans have been fucked by their politicians more than a $2 whore
Does this poor country have nothing but fucking communists and bankster whores to choose from?
My theory is that Kirchner is all too happy to see Macri win this one. She wanted to remain in power but didn't get the necessary majority to change the constiution so she had to step down. As she is a cunning politician (like most), she will bid her time and remain the opposition leader (as Scioli is now surely leaving that stage) and stand for re-election in case Macri doesn't manage to turn the tide come the next elections. Her lukewarm support for Scioli and his distancing himself from her would provide some proof to that theory.
Pardon my cynicism. But this looks like Greece all over again. The hope will last for as long as it takes for the Argentinians to realize they were sold out again.
Time to take back Las Malvinas! (The Falklands Islands for the idiots).
That mythical Malvinas claim is easily debunked: https://www.academia.edu/17799157/Falklands_-_Some_Relevant_International_Law
That mythical Malvinas claim is easily debunked: https://www.academia.edu/17799157/Falklands_-_Some_Relevant_International_Law
That mythical Malvinas claim is easily debunked: https://www.academia.edu/17799157/Falklands_-_Some_Relevant_International_Law
24% inflation - bread rises 20% in a week - GOLD up 25%
actually gold decreased 0.7% in a two week
period, priced in Argentina pesos
10,384 to 10,306/ounce
Expecting a government to solve problems is truly setting yourself up for disappointment and rage...However, governments would possibly be tolerable if they taxed the citizens at about .25% and largely depended upon volunteers rather than over-paid, pension-hungry employees...
Macri will be an international banker whore
So what's the new elect going to do, pretend they aren't broke? At least Marci will have cash, food and whores.
It would be a good time for a bankers convention and throw them all in jail.
So what's that. 30+ years of pain before people start to think "Oh wait"?
Look at the US, 7 and counting.
Kirchner's only real priorities in office were settling scores with the generals who tried (and ultimately failed) to save Argentina from Peronism.
I confess the plan to take away the children of communists and give them to Catholic families where they would be loved and cherished was poorly thought through. Psychopathy runs in families too. Tying them onto mama and papa's backs and tossing the whole family into the Atlantic would have saved Argentina's defenders a lot of headaches today.
“There has never been a period in government with such tangible economic progress,” Kirchner lamented...
She's every bit as deluded as Obama...
if soros likes him then bend over argentina
I look at the list of financial vultures involved in that country and know that Argentina will feel nothing but Soros and pain.
What, free shit with no production does not last forever? Time to get to work which might remind us that the gravy train has left the station here as well - buy local, produce local, vote local, ....screw open borders and free trade.
They lie? The service industry and consumerism can't save us?
No work you say. Plant that garden where ever you can , get a few chickens and rabbits, stop buying crap, learn new skills if the social engineering degree you have is not in demand. oh wait - that is all work with no immediate gratification - can't do that!
"...the government would desperately need an immediate infusion of dollars."
Can I have an immediate infusion of dollars too? Please Mister Bankster? Pretty please? With sugar on top? I'll pay you back. I PROMISE!
Sure you can, as long as you are fine with selling your children into servitude...
Carlos Menem - The neo-liberal looter that started the problem
This new guy has all the markings of the Jackal - go Elliot!
right wing, left wing, chicken wing... who cares as long the bankers take their due
Sure. What all insolvent nations and, indeed, individuals need most of all is "regaining access to international credit markets." That should be their goal, since credit certainly hasn't been the source of their problems to now.
Just a few years ago the former governor of IL (The one that is not yet in jail.) triumphantly heralded a just passed income tax increase because it would allow the bankrupt state to borrow more cheaply.
This entire attitude is appalling.
While this is a good first step, nothing will change overnight is probably the most understated assessment one could possibly make. I don't see the Argentines as being sharp enough to understand there will be pain in fixing their country's economy, and results will be slow. I figure by the end of his term, the Argentines will be looking for another socialist leader to drag them lower than ever.
Son of Italian construction tycoon? This is going to end well? It won't be long before Argentinians are out marching in the streets banging pots and pans!
It is very interesting that in Goldman Sachs' opinion, STOPPING rampant inflation would trigger a drop in the value of the Argentinian currency.
It indicates that many of their rank and file cannot differentiate between currency of arbitrary depreciating value, and Money with a set relationship to the economy.
Framing Kirchner for the murder of that Zionist prosecutor worked on the sheeple, I guess. You just can't vote for a jew-killer.
So Argentina's back in the loving arms of the Banks. I'm sure 5 or 6 families are really stoked.
Macri favours creating a better working relationship with the UK and easing off on the Malvinas rhetoric. Good news as that mythical Malvinas stuff is wearing a bit thin on the imagination: https://www.academia.edu/17799157/Falklands_-_Some_Relevant_International_Law
In the event of a change in power, the only real policy change anticipated is in monetary policy, more central banker = deus machina.
Nothing realistic on fiscal policy (pensions, salaries, corporate handouts).
Its the same the world over.