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Can Investors Trust The New Gold Fixing?
Submitted by Dimitri Speck via Acting-Man.com,
Statistical Analysis of the New Gold Fixing
Since 20 March 2015 a new gold price fixing organized by the London Bullion Market Association has been in operation. It has replaced the previous price determination process, which was in place for more than a century and became subject to criticism as it was highly vulnerable to manipulation. Has manipulation now ceased?
Gold fixing at N.M. Rothchild and Sons offices in London. The first fixing took place there on 12 September 1919. After more than a century, the process has been fundamentally changed.
Photo credit: N.M. Rothschild
There are two gold price fixings in London, an AM one and a PM one. Statistical studies have shown evidence of price anomalies around these points in time during the previous fixing process that suggested price manipulation was taking place. I have first drawn attention to the anomalies surrounding the fixings in 2002. At the time I introduced an examination method designed to uncover price manipulation based on creating an average of intraday price performance. This study showed regularly repeating price declines around the time of the fixing.
We want to examine now whether anything has changed with respect to price manipulation since the introduction of the new fixing process. The chart below shows the average intraday price performance of all days since the introduction of the new fixing until early October, this is to say over a time period of approximately six months. The right hand scale shows the price, the x-axis scale the time of the day (US EST).
In order to create the average price chart, the price moves of every minute of all trading days are averaged and chained. The two gold fixings are marked on the chart as well. This seasonal intraday pattern chart therefore shows you at one glance how the gold price has moved intraday during the six months since the new fixing has been introduced.
Gold’s average intraday price move between 20 March and 6 October 2015 vs. AM and PM gold price fixing
The following can be stated about gold’s intraday price moves since 20 March:
- On average, the gold price declines at the time of the AM fixing in London. This is the most prominent move in the course of the trading day.
- At the time of the PM fixing, which exhibited strong anomalies in the past, no price decline can be detected anymore. On the contrary, a small price spike has formed.
The regular price decline around the PM fixing shows that reference prices continue to be held down. The action has merely moved from the PM to the AM fixing. Apparently the low volume trading period in the morning hours is now used to manipulate the price downward.
At the PM fixing no clustering of price declines can be detected over the past six months. However, it would have been odd if those manipulating the price would have simply continued as before, in light of the fact that the PM fixing had come under a lot of fire in the press and as well as under the scrutiny of regulators.
Conclusion
The discontinuation of the previous fixing doesn’t mean that price manipulation has ended. The modern procedure definitely represents progress though. Gold market manipulations are in any case mainly performed in the futures markets. They are merely more frequent and stronger during the fixings. The new fixing process however doesn’t alter the irregularities in the futures markets.
Gold price manipulation continues. For investors it at least offers the possibility to purchase gold at more favorable prices than would be the case otherwise.
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Old manipulation: Rothschild and cohorts.
New manipulation: Rothschild and cohorts.
Take the entire world from fractional reserve banking, fiat-creating usurers, and with the flick of a pen, they will create the debt to buy it all back again.
- a better man than I
isis trashes paris and the euro and gold. raison d'etre, anyone?
London's LBMA and New York's COMEX Gold Markets In Collapse
http://www.safehaven.com/article/39627/londons-lbma-and-new-yorks-comex-gold-markets-in-collapse
"Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss" p.t.
+1000
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-fix-031820151
IF they changed it, they made it EASIER to manipulate.
Buy the real thing and you do not care what the Fix is.
Q:Can Investors Trust The New Gold Fixing?
A: They couldn't the old one. Why should they this one?
Q:Can Investors Trust The New Gold Fixing?
A: So you're telling me the fixing is now fixed?
Q:Can Investors Trust The New Gold Fixing?
A: How come in the word "fixing", after factoring out "fix" and "in", the only leftover letter is "gee!"?
Q:Can Investors Trust The New Gold Fixing?
A: Of course you can! I mean, after all, what could go wrong?
Q:Can Investors Trust The New Gold Fixing?
A: Oh sure! They seem like such nice fellows...
As long as the "fixers" have a stake in the US $$, the manipulation will remain.
So which comes first? End of $$ or WWIII?
As long as the "fixers" have a stake in the US $$, the manipulation will remain.
So which comes first? End of $$ or WWIII?
I call BS. Sure there are some Neocons buying bullion, but not as a falling knife.
I'm betting that it's the Chinese oligarchs, buying it for their own purposes, with our Banksters in London and NY aiding and abetting the scam.
That is why GS has a huge office in Shanghai.
Occam's Razor, bitchez.
occam was a simpleton.
Occam was a gold bug...
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
Rothschild and cohorts (have a lot of gold sewn into their garments in a vault somewhere under Tel Aviv, I presume).
Hope not...there too much to be made on the ramp and take-down boys Lol...
There's simply not enough flow to cover all the shorts! Mwahaha!
Selling to keep the price down (especially when you don't own said thing!) means you can only ever keep selling as soon as you stop the price rises and you're fucked. That said the same logic applied to buying explains every financial bubble and subsequent crash ever.
Agreed, but doesn't the ability to print unlimited money forever push the ability to stop the selling out there pretty far?
Manupulation will continue until the price is set by physical out of Shanghai.
You may be waiting a long time for that since an Austrian Central Banker hinted that it's the Asians themselves who are manipulating prices.
http://www.gata.org/node/15898
Since when exactly do we believe in what central bankers spout?
Still, you may be waiting a long time indeed, regardless of whom is manipulating this "market"
With China getting reserve currency status I doubt this cap on gold will get removed. That was probably part of the deal was to guarantee China would play dice.
Ha, ha, ha! Too funny!
It's exactly what I've been saying for over a year here, like the lonely voice out of the desert.
Group Think ("It's the Ashkenazis!") is too strong here, to see the wider world beyond this tunnel vision.
To wit: Use CSI tools to analyze the situation.
1. What parties/countries have the Motive, Means and Opportunity to manipulate the paper prices down, so they can buy the hard bullion?
2. Of these, if you do a Pareto of suspects, which one is THE most likely to fit the profile?
When you think clearly, analyze properly, and look at the 'Preponderance of Evidence', CHINA screams at you as The Suspect, the #1 Perp, with others willing to help out. E.g., London, NY.
Rumor is that Gold will probably hit 2.5 million SDR's by 2020.
Central banks themselves have admitted to price fixing. Gata has overwhelming evidence.
http://gata.org/node/15506
No.
It depends on what the meaning of 'fix' is.
Isn't fixing another word for castration?
gold is a simple trade. techincally, u can play the paper charts in & out and make $$$ on both sides. fundamentally, if you think gold is a sell, strong sell for the long-term, then you simply aren't paying attention to whats actually going on. the fed is in a box; IF they try to raise rates, they are going to see what the fall-out will be (assault on equity markets, high-yield blow-ups, spread widening exhasterbated between US10's and european bonds which is EXACTLY how 2008 got rolling).
go listen to YET ANOTHER fed clown (this time john williams) today saying "the case is there to begin raising" AND IN THE SAME FUCKING BREATHE he talks about negative rates needing to be in the tool kit. once the masses wake-up to the notion that ALL this sovereign debt IS NEVER going to be paid back (since its being borrowed against this notion that global growth is going to mysteriously uptick in a meaningful, sustainable way), thats when people are going to run INTO (not out of) the 1-way-in, 1-way-out door that is gold.
oh, full disclosure, i am NOT a gold bug. i simply understand economics and math which clearly these politicians all over planet earth simply do not when attempting to "forecast" things such as GDP, inflation, jobless rates, etc.
oh, and don't take my word for it, here is the horse's ass (mouth)
Fed's Williams sees strong case for December interest-rate hike
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/21/us-usa-fed-williams-rates-idUSKCN0TA0WZ20151121
Fed may need permanently big balance sheet, Williams says
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/21/us-usa-fed-williams-naturalrate-idUSKCN0TA0TT20151121
Fed's Williams says central banks need to consider new tools
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/21/usa-fed-williams-naturalrate-idUSS8N10Z00X20151121
How long do you wager they can continue this suppression if they decide not to raise rates? Maybe forever?
Nobody has silver coins but the price is at 6 year lows despite an 18% premium on coins and a 7.5% premium on 100 OZ bars. There is virtually no gold left in either the Comex, LBMA or even Singapore for sale (40 ounces in one of the most presitgeous warehousing facilities), but again, the price is dropping.
Manipulation? Now who would ever think of using that word?
Yeh a six year low from a very high spike, look at the longer term charts
OK, let's look at it from another perspetive. The fed alone has expanded the money supply by 9 times since 2007. So, if (in your opinion) gold was worth 400.00 an ounce then that would mean that today, based on the number of paper dollars it is worth at least $ 3,600.00
Now, they could just do a repo on the dollars the bnks are holding, but then, (a) what would the banks do for liquidity and (b) how would the Fed dispose of the 4 Trillion in zero value debt it is holding? As a matter of fact, if you want to take an even longer term view of things, say 20 years out, they will have to expand the money supply by a futher factor of 10 (minimum) just to meet their domestic obligations at which point the dollar becomes a 'shin plaster', they will be forced to have an external, gold backed currency for trade and the poor schmucks in the US will get the Federal Reserve greenies.
No, you know what? They are fucking caught this time and it looks good on them.
the flaw in the jewish banking system is that every dollar created is borrowed principal, every dollar out there is debt, but not one dollar of interest was created to pay off the dollars out, guaranteeing the failure of the system and the relentless extortion of your fellow american to pay off your debt. this is the jewish enslavement system and a far cry from the original hard/honest money system envisioned by the founders for we the people.
yup. The scenario is, either default on your obligations to the citizens, and have a revolution, or, honor the obligations and have hyper inflation. There is of course one other option, steal the gold from either India, China or Russia, in which case I suspect you would have a nuclear war on your hands. India might nuckle under, but I doubt China or Russia ever would. Thus the crazy talk coming out of the psychopaths in Washington and elsewhere. Regardless of any of the solutions, the Rothchilds end up with all the gold on the entire planet and then they really control the world and start eliminating the Goyem who haven't already been extinguished. If the US population really understood any of what is going on they would realize that there best chance for a future is for Russia and China to succeed.
The paper price of silver is meaningless (unless you are 'that guy' who thinks you can beat the manipulators at their own game in the futures market); paper silver could go down to three cents an oz, and so fucking what? Between the HFT thieves and assorted manipulators, the 'market' is broken, and largely a joke. Since the silver spike to $50.00/oz, silver has gotten hammered repeatedly, day in and day out, and has not gone much lower (in paper price) than it is right now. What does that tell you? Irregardless,I will continue to stack silver, because IMHO, there is nothing else that is trustworthy.
I think you ranted to the wrong person.
Stacking silver, because it is affordable. But everytime I look at a 40 year chart of Gold Prices i cant help thinking it is still way over priced.
Apart from a spike in the early 80s gold trundled along for decades at around 400 dollars an ounce right up until the 2008 spike, and despite falling back still sits at 1067 dollars an ounce today, so who apart from the folks who stacked on the way up to that 08 spike think that this PM is cheap at these prices?
Very shortly, the Chinese will let you know what gold is really worth, in both US dollars and Yuan. You don't really believe that they spent all that time building their reserves only to see it fly out the door at 1K an ounce do you?
Still waiting for a well informed explanation as to why I should consider Gold cheap at todays prices, when history shows it trundling along for decades at a much lower rate until the 08 crash.
I would love to stack gold as well as silver, but still remain to be convinced that this is a good time, and i am sure as heck not convinced by the people who bought at the peak telling me its cheap now
are you one of those who believe there is "no inflation anywhere"?
i mean, outside if housing, rents, healthcare, food, education (specifically college), entertainment, dining out, movies, ball games, theatre, toll roads, bridges, tunnels, taxes, beach badges, stocks, bonds ... YEP theres none.
its amazing how "all of a sudden" 1-day people WAKE-UP and realize BOOM ... theres a fucking problem.
almost kinda like when peter schiff was saying between 2002-2006 "how the fuck are people who make $50,000 a year buying $1,000,000 houses?!?!?!"
its amazing how people who see & state the obvious get tarred & feathered until ALL OF A SUDDEN 1 day the heavy-duty, industrialized shit hits the fan, taking prices of various asset classes with it.
Are you one of those people who believe there was no inflation between 1974 and 2008 apart from a spike in 1981?
Like i said im still waiting to hear an explanation from someone who is informed. I am not closed minded about any of this, just want to expand my understanding, its the main reason i am here at ZH
I am with you TeaClipper. I want to pull the trigger on gold, but the evidence is hard for me to see.
note to all those awaiting an "informed justification" for holding the only 2 forms of real money with a track record of 5,000 years of being just that - REAL MONEY....
if u believe in the current paper VALUTATIONS of both in an environment where all debt based paper CURRENCIES r racing to their INTRINSIC values of zero then DONT accumulate them...
if u view them as INVESTMENTS rather than forms of money which allow u to protect ur savings and purchasing power from the fucking MoneyChangers who have enslaved and impoverished the masses then DONT ACCUMULATED THEM...
instead of seeking "explanations' from others do ur own analysis of economic/monetary history and principles and act according to YOUR UNDERSTANDING, KNOWLEDGE, and CONVICTIONS...
and then let the chips fall where they fall...
ps: until i can buy an 1oz Silver dollar with a $1 Federal Reserve NOTE or a 1oz Gold Eagle with $50 dollars, talking about the debt coupon dollar PRICE of Silver or Gold is just fucking dumb......just sayin
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.
We could point them to Greece or Cyprus but that wouldn't help. Maybe even try to show them the 300-400% gains over the last ten years in Rand, Ruble, and Real but that wouldn't work either. What about the disasters in Argentina and Venezuela? Ah, fuck it....
Everything is just fuckan awesome!
"instead of seeking "explanations' from others do ur own analysis of economic/monetary history and principles and act according to YOUR UNDERSTANDING, KNOWLEDGE, and CONVICTIONS..."
Whether I ask questions here or read it elsewhere, both of which I do BTW, it is all seeking explanations from others.
There are some great well informed people who post here and being able to ask questions of them is one of the biggest assets of this site, and why many of us use it.
Pull it on silver. silver/gold ratio is way out of wack showing silver undervalued tremendously.
The silver/gold ratio has been in the high fifties, low 60's range since 2000. Prior to that the ratio had been as high as 94 in the 1940's and the 1990's and as low as 22 in the 70's. I don't know that there is any particualr 'historical' benchmark that anyone can point to and say 'that is the proper ratio', except to say that when either the industrial capacity is increasing or there is a serious fiscal crisis, the silver price tends to improve.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment
"The silver/gold ratio has been in the high fifties, low 60's range since 2000."
12/1/2015. It is 75 right now.
http://www.kitco.com/market/
If you could have got it, you could have bought more for your average salary in 1970's than today
http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.php
i personally just think the inflation lie from them persists. otherwise, why does the CPI calculation keep getting changed? IMO its simply so they (ie. the fed) can continue to print $$$ and say theres no consequences. when shacks in san fran are going for $1,000,000, i don't need some jacksass who doesn't pay for their kids education (since they are professors at colleges, they don't pay for college tuition) that theres "no inflation anywhere."
"I am not closed minded about any of this.." Honestly, if you want to expand your understanding, put away the 40-year chart of gold price. Gold went from being a "must-have" 30 per cent of a serious investor's portfolio to being a "net-cost to hold" in that time. Look at the relatively tiny size of the physical gold market and consider if gold cycled back to being favored again. I can't tell you if gold is cheap now. I just buy a small $ or € amount regularly thereby buy more over the dips. Want to be ahead of the guys wanting to get ahead of a possible future mania? Get in early.
OK, look, I already wrote a long comment on another story, but basically the issue is this. The IMF is moving to assess it's currency basket based on currency flows, not trade volumes. If they intend to use currency units, as opposed to currency {value} as they should, that means that China, whose has 27 Trillion of currency in circulation is the long term currency nexus, not the US. In order for the US to even survive a move like that and still have it's currency mean anything in the world, it will be forced to offer a gold backed currency for trade purposes, as China and Russia are already intending to do. When they do, demand for gold is going to force the price discovery out in the open and this game of screw gold to support the US dollar will end. It isn't that far off.
Since 2000, the price of silver has risen 400%, the price of gold has risen 380% and the money supply has risen 750% so what is out of whack, exactly?
Average price of gold in 2000: $275. Price today, ~$1080, so OK, between 380-400%.
Average price of silver in 2000: about $5.00. Today, abour $14.00, so, 280%, not 400%.
Your point is well-taken on money supply, also, look at the dollar index. IIRC, we were around 73, then, and now, closer to 100.
Strong dollar, weak PMs and other commodities.
Silver is still very much on sale, since the gold-silver ratio has been between 12 and 16 for centuries, and is currently in the 70s.
Besides, who counts their gold and/or silver in dollars, or yen or euros (beside Dennis Gartman)? I measure mine in troy ounces, and that's the proper way to do it, unless you're using it as collateral, which either gold or silver is perfectly suited to.
Picking Browns Bottom is slightly unfair.
And to the OP about inflation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4RNb3tt0LM
Can investors trust any fixing?
"Trust Us...."
Sincerely,
The MoneyChangers
"Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.” -- Some Great Thinker
Until U.S. foreign policy provokes China to take action (in various yet-to-be-determined ways), the clamp-down of gold in order to protect the U.S. dollar will continue at all costs. And it doesn't matter whether or not the ongoing suppression benefits China and how that seems to contradict conventional thought. Their hand at some point will be forced to act, lest they become the 'Paper Tiger'.
Its kind of like telling us they have a new operating system. Everybody knows they are flawed with vunerabilities.
Let me know when Joe Campbell takes a massive short position in gold...so I can back up the truck for the other side of that trade! :D
The factor that makes gold so underpriced is that it serves as collateral for every banknote and all bank reserves issued by central banks.
A hundred and fifty years ago, a gold double eagle goldcoin (about 30 grams of gold) could be deposited in any American bank and the depositor would receive a piece of paper with $20 printed on it. The piece of paper was a banknote; the gold coin was its collateral.
Without that goldcoin, the paper was worthless.
The same principle operates today. Most central banks or national treasuries today list “gold and gold loans” as the first item on their asset statements. About fifteen years ago this item was simply, “gold”.
What does this mean? This item, “gold and gold loans”, to repeat, is the collateral for debt instruments (banknotes and bank reserves) issued by the national treasuries or central banks.
What is the situation in the US? The “gold and gold swaps” (used to be “gold”) supposedly held at Fort Knox serves as collateral for some $15 to $20 trillion in banknotes and bank reserves –either directly (by US Treasury securities) or indirectly (by “cash equivalents” held by large investors (private individuals or corporations, world-wide)).
All these “liabilities” are legally and immediately convertible into said “gold or gold swaps”; at least that’s what 95% of the world’s population imagines.
So, how to we make an equality of the following equation?
Price (for “gold and gold swaps”) = $15 to $20 trillion.
Is it $70,000… $140,000… or $infinity?
Is Janet Yellen's portrait on the wall in the photo?
The price of gold had always been the BS meter. So when countries manipulated their currency, the gold rate would keep the system from getting out of hand. The central banks realized this a short term after they started "fixing" the global economy and gold started to rise. They fixed that little problem by driving the price down to the cost to mine it. No
Should not trust anything that bankers or politicians are involed in.
I still think that picture of quirky english dudes is one of speed dating with table phones - early form of
Gold represents HELL
Where is the gold most abundent
Its in the center of the earth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_core
http://www.omgfacts.com/throwback/15610/99-of-gold-can-be-found-at-this-...
http://phys.org/news/2011-09-gold.html
http://discovermagazine.com/2006/sep/innerfortknox
http://thegoldlab.com/2013/12/gold-facts-much-gold-earths-core/
And where is hell
the center of earth is covered by molten lava , this is hell