This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 6 Months (Despite NAR Reporting Falling Prices)
After 3 straight months of home price declines, August and now September have seen the usual seasonal pattern unfolding as Case-Shiller reports 0.61% rise in September (double the +0.3% expectations). Of course this runs in the face of NAR's 4 month decline in median home prices, but who's quibbling.
It appears Case-Shiller is playing out a similar pattern... up 2 months in a row...
But NAR sees home prices have now dropped for the last 4 months in a row...
As Reuters reports,
Annualized U.S. single-family home prices rose in September at a faster pace than in August and above market expectations, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 5.5 percent in September on a year-over-year basis compared with 5.1 percent in the year to August. It was above the 5.1 percent estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.
"The general economy appeared to slow slightly earlier in the fall, but is now showing renewed strength. With unemployment at 5 percent and hints of higher inflation in the CPI, most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise its fed funds target range to 25 to 50 basis points, the first increase since 2006," said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
"While this will make news, it is not likely to push mortgage rates far above the recent level of 4 percent on 30 year conventional loans. In the last year, mortgage rates have moved in a narrow range as home prices have risen; it will take much more from the Fed to slow home price gains."
Spot the difference...
Charts: Bloomberg
- 187 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -





That wasn't a house price rise they were recording - that was a rise in the prices of a nuclear bunker in your garden for the expansion of the fuck up that is called the Middle East.
The WEST has a coordinated financial reporting effort to shove unicorns and skittles up our A$$es in the face of higher interest rates, higher inventories, lower economic growth and WAR. It's like watching a pharma commercial where they pound you with all of the BAD things that can happen to you (e.g. incontinence, impotence, suicidal thoughts, fatal infections, etc.) if you take their drug and then end the commercial with, "What are you waiting for, talk to your doctor and start taking XXXX NOW!!"
Desperation is palpable.
My parents watch CNN all day and completely believe all this shit, it's baffling to me.
Completely different datasets, they often don't move in tandem. Case-Shiller is a more time-lagged dataset and tracks same-house sale appreciation in a fixed number of metro areas.
NAR is a smattering of all resales that occurred during the period, and the median price value can reflect a shift in unit-type mix (more people buying less expensive homes, or vice versa) as much as it can appreciation or depreciation.
It's almost like there's.... a pattern or something.
I'm just looking forward to cooking my Thanksgiving turkey tomorrow. Long, slow cook. I call it the Federal Reserve turkey. Lower for longer.
And my Grandmother's onion stuffing recipe. She never wrote it down- took years to figure it out again. Celery salt turned out to be the key.
Even chinese have no money left ....
median income ~ $55K
median new house ~ $300K
there's something fucked up with that. it wasn't that long ago that a couple making combined $40K could find an older house for 1X income. nowadays the cheapest pos is 2X income and if you want something decent it's 5X income. the rule of thumb was 3X income years ago and i thought that was insanely high. the new paradigm.
Fractional-Reserve Housing.....
There's that famous chart - or the many permutations of actually, that shows home prices bouncing along rather unremarkably up until the late 1970's, and by the mid 80's the 'ramp' that never looked back was well underway. Funny how that 'ramp' coincides with so many things that emanate from the Eccles building and the emergence of cheap money and 'consumption' as the key metric of economic health...
come to orange county california. median income 67k. median single family 675k. 10x income
fucking tulip mania here
When no ones buying them and you're supported by big momma FED, then you can just set the price at whatever it doesn't matter. Like if I was a trust fund kid with $100 million in the bank I could put a price on my used VW Rabbit for $150,000 I guess, wouldn't matter to me.
Hedge fund Investors are buying homes in Las Vegas for the rental income
www.ViewLasVegasRealEstate.com
I guess Case-Shiller didn't come to my part of Connecticut where housing prices are falling like heavy rocks.
The two indexes measure different things. Case-Shiller looks at repeat sales of the same house in urban areas. Median home price does not control for anything. So the latter can fall while the former rises if housing prices are falling outside of urban areas. Another way they can differ in the way shown is if prices are rising but the "velocity" of lower-priced houses is increasing.
I also believe Case-Shiller is a 3-month (or 6-month) trailing average, which both delays and smooths changes.