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Tech Dreck
It has been said that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. Nothing has been more awe inspiring during 2015 than the massive gains that have been observed in several key tech stocks. With seeming daily record highs in stocks such as $AMZN, $FB and others it is easy to get excited about further tech gains. They never go down after all, or the so the impression goes.
Yet I urge everyone, bullish or bearish inclined, to have a look at several key charts here as the context paints a very different picture. In recent weeks we’ve pointed to the ever increasing negative divergences in the market (see also technical charts). That goes without saying.
But it’s more than that. Have a look at the daily $NDX chart:
Not only do we have plenty of negative divergences, but we also just saw the recent rally fail at a key broken trend line going back to 2012.
Now put this in context of the monthly chart:
Here we find a broken wedge pattern going back to 2007 with recent highs having been made on ever lower participation as evidenced by the $BPCOMPQ. It is notable that this lack of follow through is observed at the levels of the 2000 highs.
This type of narrowing participation is not new of course and it is precisely the 2000 highs that came with similar negative divergences and weakening participation:
If you recall it was a narrow band of hyper valued and extended stocks that brought about the final highs in March of 2000, hence the negative divergences.
Well what do we have now? Check the following examples in context of their stretch on the charts:
All of them are either massively extended and/or show negative divergences in their own right. And these are the winners!
Now none of this means that a crash is imminent or that we can’t make new highs even into year end, however it points to a very diminished risk/reward to the long side as even new highs would print further negative divergences. What would change this picture is if new highs were to be made with a broadening participation of component stocks.
But if all these divergences mean something, and when they do, investors may find that we haven’t really seen a real correction yet. A look at some basic Fib levels could suggest a very rocky 2016:
Bottom line: Bulls need new highs with broadening participation.
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I'm loving Facebook right about now. Maybe I should short the stock. hah hah... - Eric
Facebook Censors Eric Dubin, Managing Editor, The News Doctors
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=548291
"They never go down at all"
So that would be an updated version of house prices in 2007?
I swear that as soon as these divergences start getting mentioned on forums like ZH, within a day or two they are blown out of the water and the market breaks out to new highs. Algos baby and plenty of CB cash banks have to play with. I've seen it play out dozens of times in the past few years. The Tylers have readers who don't comment directly here - they work for Jamie and Lloyd and Citadel and a dozen others and they make their statement other ways. As to comparisons to 2000, again, they didn't have algos then.
It's a replay of Dr. (Fucking) Demento's stuff from the early 1970's.
Back when people still thought that the USD was convertible to silver or gold, and Kissinger was President, and 'Whip Inflation Now' buttons were being pre-ordered, and the USMIC was 'invincible', SOME people ('Trekkies') were still hoping for a re-hash of the DedsiLu production of 'A place where no man has gone before'. The 'pilot episode', of course, was re-hashed in the season 2/3 tickler/trailer shit/ two-hour sesason ending/premiere. It was fracking 1967/68, and the 'Vietnam police action' was going 'hot'; and microwave ovens to cook hot dogs in paper towels were 'all the shit'.
'STAR DREK':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtU_FZAcCZo
The 'Tech Dreckies' gave us Hillary and Janet and Bevis 'Ben' Bernanke, and stupid white niggers (WHIGGERS) racing Honda cars trying to emulate the Bollywood movie 'Fast And Furious'.
How much wood could a Woodchuck chuck if a Woodchuck COULD chuck wood?
Billiary (William Rodham) Clinton will assuredly state that Hillary will 'NEVER GO DOWN AT ALL'. Except if she inhabits the White House. Only, if Huma is there. To Watch her. 'Go down'. Only AFTER all the 'W' keys have been removed from ALL White House computers and typewriters and 'official stationary'.
The shit was obvious regarding the Real Estate 'bubble' back in late 20 and 05. Those that hung on until 2007 were either deluded or stupid (or both).
WAIT! WHAT?
Didn't the 'crash' take place in 2008? WHY, YES! It DID!
Double Ewe Double Ewe Aye Aye Aye is beginning to take shape at this time, and I see comments regarding people's acumen in predicting the real estate crash of 2008 in hindsight. I seriously don't fucking believe it!
I'm here to chew bubble gum and kick ass.
I'm ALL OUT OF BUBBLE GUM!
Other than THAT, it was a good comment, 'philipat'.
fuckbook is the biggest piece of shit ever invented...
OT, but there is a convo going on about the mulato in the rainbow house, the thin psyco smoker is a sham
Barry Soetero's mother was Ann Dunham, 7th cousin to G W BUSH LOL...THEY ARE RELATED bwahahahahaha...on top of that she and her negro son renounced their usa citizenism to move to indonesia...where Barry studied at a madras. he locks his universtiy records not to hide grades, but to hide the fact he was a foriegn student.
no wonder we are in such trouble
but i guess most here know this?????
"no wonder we are in such trouble"
If you mean that we're in this trouble because guys like you are still fixated on Zero's race, religion and/or genetic relation to W instead of worrying about things like the Fed and the fact that exactly zero viable candidates for President even mention the idea of ending the Fed, then yes. No wonder.
No in trouble because imbiciles like you voted for the fraud TWICE, what a fucking moron you are...
Hey Unix. Are you back on the beer & codiene? Go easy with the moron comments, eh?
I managed to run over a curb and tear the exhaust off my car at age 16 after some beer and codiene. Fortunately no injuries and my only consequence was explaining to my parents why the car had no exhaust and a bent rim. It's much safer to be on ZH calling me a fucking moron.
ya, here i go again, i'm sorry for the name calling...times are crazy, and it gets harder and harder to keep sane.
EDIT: I cannot for the life of me understand why Ozero was NEVER vetted properly (media covered for him) and they are skewering some good people over small stuff...by the way i did skewer Obushy too you know...see i am an equal opportunity basher LOL
It's fight club.
Zero was carefully selected by TPTB who also own the media. My point is that both Teams are completely corrupted. I spent plenty of wasted effort years ago bashing Bush before I realized he was a cog in a bigger machine just like Zero, and just like the next President, whomever that may be.
that is a good point, what will it take to have a really civil national conversation? it needs to happen, else we are all toast
I don't think it's ever going to happen (a really civil national conversation). If we have a financial meltdown or war, it will only make things worse as the national debate is guided by the oligarchs in their favor. We already know that from 9/11 and the financial crisis of 2007/2008. If things stay roughly the same, we'll continue the status quo. I think we're fucked, but we can still drink beer and vent here so that's something.
another good point...well at least we'll be smiling when we die
I hear ya, and I will. I promise to be more civil and we talk logically, FACTS, and enjoy the discussion.
bravo ! you boys did good. peace n love. hoax n chains. "his name's codeine, he's the nicest thing i've seen" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4zfEkKs2ZM
"Yet I urge everyone, bullish or bearish inclined, to have a look at several key charts here as the context paints a very different picture."
There is no need to show a chart, I mean dude...it's Facebook, Amazon blah blah tech blah blah. It's 1's and 0's. Bits. It does nothing, is not tangible and has very little value to daily life. Tech is dead. There is no need for it when 94 million are sitting at home, How many network admins, sys admins does a country need when there is no need for their services let alone the fact it's pretty much an automated process now. $300 million IBM data centers with 5 people staffed to maintain.
I see many empty offices and guess what, they don't need networks or domains anymore. Common sense that when tech is this overvalued, she's gonna pop like a 13 year old's infected facial pimple and it won't smell good.
Amazon is gobbling up retail share from Brick & Mortar and AWS dominates the space.
Netflix and Facebook however.....giant piles of crap.
Amazon's retail business has razor thin margins, and will suffer in a downturn. AWS is heavily exposed to the tech unicorns - all the unicorns spend their cloud dollars on AWS. Unicorn extinction = AWS gets demolished.
Enron never went down....
....until it did.
It vaporized. I'm hoping against hope the same thing happens to Apple.
When will they show a profit...oops, I forgot. This is the "new normal", where cash burning companies, only supported by their grossly over-valued, publicly traded stock, are the Wall St. Darlings...
This too is transitory
I'm gonna guess that Yellen Capital LLC and all of the associated CIA venture funds will keep cash-flow positive. Monetary profits? Who the fuck needs those?
After all, these companies are far too valuable to them for us to not pay for in every way possible.
If you were old enough to watch the first Internet bubble burst, that should be the only clue you need...
Standard Disclaimer: The corpses were littered everywhere.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/technology/1003/gallery.dot_com_busts/
And this is how Jim Cramer explains today's new highs...
"But when it comes to the stock market, if investors don't see a decline when there should be — this is a good sign. Because if this is what happens when things are bad, just imagine how great the action will be if there is good news."
Clearly there is no God because Cramer hasn't been yet struck by lightning, or has had his dick chopped off and shoved down his own throat for spewing dumbass shit like this on msm.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/cramer-the-market-should-have-been-crushe...
That is one happy pig.
Tech has to have a slow-down, much coming from consolidation of the programmers and debuggers that are being forced into lower payscales, but the downside is that tese new jobs are much more group oriented and less entrepreneurial in nature, thus the cost of writing these increasingly complex programs is dragging sown the output. AIC holdings is one of the biggest company that has it's hand in the software business with TEKsystems, recruits, temps and places along with a lot of smaller firms constantly pushing down the payscale, especially with those nasty H1 visas and women that prefer 9 to 5 and leaves for what ever, working many times as the second income with kids. This is not the same as it used to be with entrepreneurial males that would put in 80 hours a week to get it done and I've heard complaints as to these visa programs pulling in much of the same type people.... Maybe Google credits really do work?
The diminishing returns has been reached, until AI really starts to kick in, then it will be the day of reckoning.