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"We Are Gone... Now!" - Dennis Gartman Stopped Out As Oil Surges

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On Friday, just as oil tumbled below $40 for the first time in months, we were amazed to learn that 6 weeks after being "the most bullish on crude he has ever been" (when crude was trading at $50), Gartman decided that "it is time to sell crude again" to which we said that "Andy Hall's thank you note to Dennis is now in the mail."

Sure enough, oil jumped, then jumped some more yesterday on the news that Saudi Arabia would do "whatever it takes" to stabilize oil, and then spiked above $43 today, far above Gartman's "stop" of $42, following the latest geopolitical debacle in the middle east after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane.

So having exhausted his usefulness, Gartman decided to do what he always does: cover the flop. The mea culpa in question:

WTI CRUDE: The Saudis “Reverse” Their Position: The trend has been rather clearly downward and the recent consolidation looked to be precisely that; but the announcement from the Saudis yesterday caused the market to “reverse” to the upside, although it did fail to close above the previous days’ high. But to the sidelines we go nonetheless.

 

CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE RALLIED SHARPLY, TO OUR OBVIOUS DISMAY following comments from the Saudi Cabinet yesterday that the Kingdom was intent… finally… upon “cooperating” with the other members of OPEC in some fashion at the upcoming meeting in Vienna December 4th.

* * *

We were short of crude oil as of late last week and for a few hours yesterday that short position looked very like it was to become swiftly insulated from random noise, but clearly that was not to be. We had a stop in on both Brent and WTI crude that has been elected using our “one hour” proof method, for when it comes to oil and “ags” we like to give the market an hour through our stops to prove their merit. This has been proven, obviously to our dismay, but there is little we can do to mitigate against policy statements  such as this from the Saudi government.

The conclusion:

On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!

 

Finally we are considering… seriously… buying soybeans and may do so by tomorrow. Certainly we’ll not be short.

Too late: here's oil.

 

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Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:07 | 6832018 MonetaryDigitalis
MonetaryDigitalis's picture

Gartman!!/voice=Seinfeld saying "Neuman!"

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:20 | 6832110 TheBoyPlunger
TheBoyPlunger's picture

Thank gawd, now that Gartman has covered at a loss again, we can jump back in DWTI and SCO and ride this black sludge into the $20's  !

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:38 | 6832267 arbwhore
arbwhore's picture

You'll need to wait until he is long again.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:52 | 6832370 Dutti
Dutti's picture

I have see Gartman's "recommendations" the first time in 2002. They were already just as bad back then. He has apparently kept his value as a "contrary indicator" over all these years. Now I almost feel bad for him, just being the butt of jokes.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 12:02 | 6832446 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The other day Gartman said the stock market was going to go straight up... and it did.  I am not 100% confident in Gartman being 100% wrong.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 13:40 | 6833050 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

you'd have better results folling the eTrade babies advice than this ass clown.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 13:18 | 6832913 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

When I played the market, I listened to the talking head 'analysts' and I learned that it's hard to find people that are consistently right, it's much easier to find people who are consistently wrong and bet against them. Gartman is one of the most consistent I've ever seen......

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:31 | 6832197 RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

How did selling the bottom of the range work for you Gartman?

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 14:30 | 6833456 MonetaryDigitalis
MonetaryDigitalis's picture

Maybe the voice should be Stan or Kyle shouting at Cartman.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 17:33 | 6834687 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture
Yeah, and Gartman should take notice here: George Costanza Does The Opposite https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY
Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:08 | 6832023 highandwired
highandwired's picture

How in hell does this guy have any money left? 

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 15:06 | 6833746 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

He's not risking his own capital or he would've been homeless by now

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:11 | 6832027 Francis Marx
Francis Marx's picture

Like I said last week...once the boys take it through 43, you will see 45-46. then short. These dark HFT pools got the billions to manipulate, and the best algo's money can buy.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:09 | 6832028 AustrianJim
AustrianJim's picture

Non-insiders (i.e., retail investors) should never trade like this. Even following someone better than this guy, you eventually lose all your money to transaction fees.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:10 | 6832034 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Only manager to get bested by a Magic 8 Ball.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:20 | 6832115 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Anyone who's actively traded any commodity at all over the last 10 years knows that the stops are made to be taken out. You can even time the market perfectly, volatility will wipe your stop the fuck out. Either put on your big boy pants and ride the price moves or don't even bother showing up. I've never ever had a stop not taken out, no matter how good my call was, no matter where I placed the stop.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:28 | 6832165 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

I rather buy Coffee than Soybeans.....less downside risk and more upside potential......

Anyway, to each his own....

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:40 | 6832284 adr
adr's picture

It's OK, just your new normal 10% intraday swings in PennyOil.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 11:51 | 6832364 Ms No
Ms No's picture

Good gawd they don't even try to hide anything anymore. 

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 12:24 | 6832599 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

A broken clock is right at least twice a day

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 12:48 | 6832747 Iocosus
Iocosus's picture

How does this guy stay in business?

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 15:10 | 6833776 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

He's in the business of spouting bullshit for cash, therefore he will never be out of business as long as the media outlets stay in control. He's not in the business of trading, I repeat, he is not gambling with his own money. He is not backing his word with anything.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 12:56 | 6832786 diamond dog
diamond dog's picture

Is Gartman valuing soybeans in Euro terms....Real terms...or Dong terms?  He usually is more specific.  And what about his tanker trade?  It is important for all to know where he stands presently on tankers and in what terms.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 13:29 | 6832977 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Mortimer, Sell, Sell, Sell Soybeans! NOW!

Gartman:

Finally we are considering… seriously… buying soybeans and may do so by tomorrow. Certainly we’ll not be short.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 13:32 | 6832987 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

I am seriously considering expanding my holdings of physical silver. I have a swimming pool and it's not nearly full of bars, so I think I'll wait for Gartman's call to sell or short silver, which, I figure would be at or around my ultimate price target of $12.60.

Almost there anyhow. My pool needs topping off.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 13:58 | 6833193 zvzzt
zvzzt's picture

just out of interest - how can you maintain a 2% stop on such a choppy commo and have a presence on TV? that's just rediculous. then again, we already knew that he was an idiot

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 14:14 | 6833312 Badsamm
Badsamm's picture

I read on this site that this man actually has a family, I think a daughter that works at CNBC. How sad for them. How on earth can she leave the house without a disguise. That poor soul. I wonder if she has his skin ailment too? yuck

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 14:17 | 6833350 RAT005
RAT005's picture

I think maybe it was Thanksgiving Turkies that caught them off.

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 14:37 | 6833506 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

Which raises the same question: Why does anybody lister to these corrupt talking head  cretins?

Tue, 11/24/2015 - 14:54 | 6833664 zvzzt
zvzzt's picture

I listen frequently, purely as a contra indicator. Used to have a chief investment officer at the bank I worked at 10-odd years ago. He was always off target about 1 or sometimes 2 days ahead. Without joking, you can make money off these guys. What I find surprizing is the continued flow of sheep signing up to the services of these guys. 

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