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Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Forecast
Just when you thought it was safe to hike rates, The Atlanta Fed takes an ax to its Q4 GDP forecast, smashing it to cycle lows following this morning's unexpected weakness in consumer spending.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.8 percent on November 25, down from 2.3 percent on November 18.
The forecast for the fourth-quarter rate of real consumer spending declined from 3.1 percent to 2.2 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The Atlanta Fed model is now almost half 'consensus' expectations...
Which only serves to confirm Goldman's earlier mark down...
This morning’s data were net negative for our tracking estimate of Q4 GDP growth, which we lowered by three tenths to +2.0% (qoq ar).
Weaker-than-expected consumer spending for October implies less consumption growth for the quarter as a whole (we revised down our Q4 PCE estimate to +2.5% from +3.0% previously). There were partial offsets in today’s data on housing and equipment investment, as well as inventory accumulation.
Assuming this 1.8% growth in Q4, that means full year GDP will average 2.1%, well below the 2.4% in 2014. Time to hike rates for sure!!
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Shiny forever, with rainbows and unicorns for everybody......
America wake up. Come back to God and follow The 11 Commandments >> http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3lk
A LOT of URLs being hidden behind URL compressors/hiders getting posted on ZH lately.
Most transparent administration, since what?
Nixon and LBJ......
for the 1% crony it is
And now Obama and the Democrats are introducing anarchy on college campus and BLM! Who doesn't like Anarchy after they take your guns away
Unicorns? I'd prefer a couple milking goats, which are increasing hard to find.
" Weaker-than-expected consumer spending"
How could they possibly expect anything but? How do they stay employed if they are constantly wrong?
Oh yeah when you control everything you are never unemployed. Duh
But our health care spending (read cost) is WAY up. Thanks Obama!
So effin robust is the economy. I think I'll go out and buy me a snickers bar at the dollar store to celebrate Thanksgiving.
all scripted - anyone who thinks otherwise is a complete fool
L@@K! OVER THERE! Kim Kardashian has a big fat ghetto ass full of cellulite!
Print, mass helicopter drop, GOBS OF MONEY FED. GET TO WORK YELLEN YOU TWAT.
FUCK IT...RIDE THIS BITCH UNTIL THE WHOLE GOD DAMNED THING BREAKS DOWN LIKE AN OLD FUCKED UP MULE....
No rate hike, Santa rally to record highs.
“Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Forecast”
So, what’s the significance of a forecast based on a number that is, fully, 35% pure fluff?
That’s right, “pure fluff”. That’s the conclusion we arrive at after a study of so-called Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
One of its components is “investments” – plant, machinery or software; these are examples of consumption of capital – not production of capital. The money expended on them is no longer available to anyone else; the resources, the same. They are entered on accounting ledgers as delayed expenses, with the anticipation that they will be “expensed” (or recovered) annually over the next 5-30 years.
In other words, the money and resources represented by such investments are lost forever – unless the business in question can recover such money and resources over those 5-30 years.
If ineptitude or lack of foresight intervene, we are looking at a massive write-off of capital.
Then there is the component of government spending, which represents money spent on toilet seats, munitions and attendant bribery that will never be seen again – except what is stashed in off-shore banks… and that as a minus.
These two components mean that, fully, 35% of the US GDP index is pure fluff.
They must have gotten a weather forecast that its going to be either really freakin' cold....or glass metling hot around the world.
Even the predicted 2.1% average GDP will be a big lie. We are truely in negative GDP growth.
Just waiting for the snow to fall
Bullish , SPX to 2300
I don't even know anymore if a rate hike will make the market go up or down.