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Durable Goods Orders Signal Recession With 7th Consecutive Drop
For the 7th month in a row, Durable Goods New Orders fell year-over-year (down 1.0%). This has not occurred without a recession. While MoM the headline number rose 3.0% (beating the 1.7% rise expected), it appears driven by another one-off surge in Boeing plane orders as Capital Goods Shipments Ex-Air fell 0.4%. Finally, the inventory to shipments ratio re-accelerated in October, back near cycle highs.
Core Capex Shipments remain lower YoY...
And Core Capex Orders were flat YoY...
But the headline remains weaker YoY for the 7th month in a row...
Recession looms...
Charts: Bloomberg
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You should hear Liesman crow about these numbers....he thinks they are great....I think we are about to see in the next month if the average Joe has any money for Christmas......
in 72 hours certain people with access to real time sales taxe reciepts will know.
yes he crows all the time, he thinks 1-2% growth with zirp and "low" inflation is actualy better than growing at 3-4% which, he thinks, gives rise to 'bubbles'.
Just lost Radio Shack over here......Dillards must be next.
But we still have Sears......no.....I don't know how.
Penney's looks desperate from what I see. Don't know how they hold in giving out $10 off any $10 or more purchase.
Nobody has any money because of Obamacare.
So awful by design in order to usher in national healthcare clamored for by the oppressed people. /sarc
Insurance companies and the government both have plenty of money. You're either in the club or you aren't.
Bullish
The stock market will go up.
Oh BALDERDASH! What is this recession you speak of? I just looked outside and the sun is shinning and there were blue birds singing and my unemployed neighbors were waving to me and I sort of waved back. Yep....living in the land of milk and honey.
The key is consumer discretionary income. When a vast amount of the people simply don't have money to spend after paying necessary bills, how much effect can policy really have?
Since we are completely data dependant, we will need moar data...Signed, Jack Yellen.
the massive $ rise, commodity complex meltdown, lower top line sales figures, rapdily worsening junk bond mkt.....these are real issues, happening right now that indicate very serious problems on the horizon....but until the stock mkt drops 15%, people assume they dont matter
Sure scuba, but a couple of episodes of Dancing with the Stars can cancel out a 15% market drop. We may need two, consecutive 15% drops, before the sheep look away from their teevee.
thats to be expected, and has always been the way it works....retail is left holding the bag b/c their 'adivsers' say to not trade, not 'time' the market, ride it through etc. which could work if they did that, but they panic sell and dont actually keep to any type of longer term strategy or method
it all starts from not being able to know the difference between saving and investing. people should save a great deal more and only invest when its a screaming deal.
I quietly settled my accounts and have gone to ground over the last few days. I will not come back in until this pig rolls over ... there is no real upside, just volatility and heartburn. PMs are the only sector worth continuing to put $ in. The physical premium is the only real drag on that play currently since it just keeps getting wider, but I just can't resist the shiney stuff when it dips like this ..
Seems concurrent with presidential election cycles, or maybe I'm wrong.
wwxx
the chart says one thing but crAAPL sales say another. Who ya gonna believe?
GREEN SHITS. GET YOUR GREEN SHITS.
oh....thanks....I don't know what I ate yesterday but I have a bad case of green shits this morning. Very smelly too.
Who you gonna believe?
Reuters Markets | Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:52am EST
U.S. business spending gauge surges, durable goods orders soarRead more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-business-spending-usa-idUSK...
So, lets see what of thes goverment reports make sense. Personal spending down and the Service industry at a all time high? Who the fuck is to believe this bullshit?
Just BTFD, what part of that don't you understand?
Let's see, for 7 years ZH has been telling you to sell sell sell. If you just bought bought bought you would be a millionaire.
Buy the dip...always works. Fed has your back. Easy money.
I watched the reporting of the economic data on both Bloomberg and CNBC, and NEITHER of these "financial news" organizations reported on ANY of the negative details in the economic data - it was all high-school-style pep-rally rahh-rahh, the economy is ok to wonderful, buy stocks now.
I am continuously SHOCKED AND SUPER-PISSED-OFF that the mainstream "financial news" organizations are so BIASED in their reporting. I am wondering how much pressure or collusion there is between the managements of these organizations and the regime to publish propaganda that supports the regime positioning that they are saviors and the economy is healthy ???
CNBC always has and will ever be an infomercial for the stawk market.
How can we ever have a recession when all of numbers are fabricated. Doubly seasonally adjusted numbers and seasonally adjusted SURVEYS make it impossible for anything to be taken seriously. Just look at the BLS and birth/death rates of businesses. Its all bullshit all the time.