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Out Of Gas: Gazprom Cuts Off Ukraine, Will Turkey Be Next?
Last month in "Pipeline Politics: Russia, Turkey Clash Over Energy As Syria Rift Shifts Focus To German Line," we revisited Russia's recent deal with Shell, E.On and OMV to double the capacity of the Nord Stream pipeline, the shortest route from Russian gas fields to Europe.
The MOU, signed earlier this year, angered the likes of Ukraine and Slovakia. In short, the more gas that can transported via the Nord Stream, the less needs to go through Eastern Europe and that means less revenue for the countries through which the pipelines are built. "They are making idiots of us. You can’t talk for months about how to stabilize the situation and then take a decision that puts Ukraine and Slovakia into an unenviable situation," Slovak PM Robert Fico exclaimed a few months back.
For those who may need a refresher, here, coutesy of Bloomberg, is a look at the routes by which Russian gas reaches end customers:
Obviously, the conflict in Ukraine has made for a rather awkward situation when it comes to Russian gas supplies. Long story short, Ukraine wants to cut its dependence on Russian gas and if everyone's telling the truth, Gazprom would probably just as soon not deal with a country that, i) owes Moscow $3 billion on a defaulted bond, and ii) is effectively at war with Russia.
Nevertheless, a couple of months ago the two countries signed an deal ensuring supplies through Q1 of 2016 and guaranteeing Ukraine comparable prices to its neighbors. Well, that looks to have fallen apart, because on Wednesday, Gazprom decided to stop shipments to Ukraine citing a lack of prepayments. Optically, that looks bad for Kiev and so, in the energy equivalent of "you can't fire me because I quit", Ukraine announced today that it would stop buying Russian gas.
"The government has decided to order (state energy firm) Naftogaz to stop buying Russian gas. It is not that they are not delivering us gas, it is that we are not buying any," Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said.
Kiev says it can get cheaper prices elsewhere. "Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on Wednesday warned Ukraine and Europe of possible gas disruptions following the cut-off," AP notes, adding that "Russia uses Ukraine's pipelines to transport a part of its gas deliveries to other European countries."
"Ukraine's refusal to buy Russian gas threatens a safe gas transit to Europe through Ukraine and gas supplies to Ukraine consumers in the coming winter," Miller said.
But the pettiness didn't stop there. Yatsenyuk went on to announce that Ukraine will be closing its airspace to the Russians due to "security concerns."
Importantly, it's not just Eastern European that will suffer because of strained relations with Moscow and the expanded capacity of the Nord Stream. The deal with Shell, E.On and OMV has also put Moscow in a better bargaining position vis-a-vis Turkey, which is the second largest consumer of Russian gas and which paid Gazprom some $10 billion last year.
Prior to the Nord Stream deal and before Russia got directly involved in Syria, Ankara and Moscow were enjoying a burgeoning trade relationship. However, once Russia began flying combat missions from Latakia, relations between Putin and Erogan began to sour. Turkey is a key player in the effort to supply training, guns, and money to the various rebel groups fighting for control of Syria. Indeed, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that despite Ankara's conveniently timed "crackdown" on ISIS (which began in late July and just happened to coincide with an AKP election setback), Turkey is perhaps the number one state sponsor of Islamic State (see here for more). Indeed, on Tuesday Putin accused Turkey of facilitating the group's black market oil trade.
Needless to say, once Russia began to conduct airstrikes on anti-Assad elements, Erdogan was not pleased and it was clear from the beginning that it would only be a matter of time before the border disputes began. Sure enough, Turkey shot down a Russian drone last month and subsequently began to complain loudly about alleged Russian incursions into Turkish airspace. Those complaints led directly to a declaration by Erdogan that Turkey may seek to source its gas from someone else. As Sijbren de Jong, an energy security analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies told Bloomberg, "Putin is betting on Nord Stream, but that bet is risky."
As the tension continued to build, many began to wonder about the fate of the proposed Turkish Stream pipeline and now that Turkey has shot down a Russian warplane, everyone wants to know whether Russia may decide to retailiate by simply cutting Ankara off, leaving Erdogan to figure out where to source some 53% of his country's energy needs.
Of course you can expect the Western media to say that Putin can't afford to cut Turkey off, but even if the coverage is biased towards the NATO member in the equation, it's still worth taking a look at the commentary. Here's what Bloomberg had to say today:
Turkey relies on Russia for about half its natural gas supplies, paying state-controlled Gazprom PJSC as much as $10 billion last year. That makes their energy ties an unattractive target for retaliation.
With so much at stake for both sides, Russia may look elsewhere in its response to the downing of its warplane by
Turkey on Tuesday. Russian Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky said that supplies to Turkey would continue in line with the contract. Longer term, Turkey could reduce its dependence on Russian gas through alternative supplies.
The relationship between Turkey and Russia was already strained before Russia’s warplane was shot down, and talks over a new gas pipeline had stalled, according to Alexander Kornilov, an Alfa Bank analyst in Moscow.
Turkish Stream is redundant because there is already existing transfer capacity to Turkey and the rest of Europe, Sberbank PJSC’s investment bank unit said Wednesday in a report to clients.
While Turkey can’t turn away from Russian supplies right away, it still has leverage to fight retaliatory moves, including if Russia takes a hard line on prices or threatens cuts, according to Sijbren de Jong, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic Studies in The Hague.
The sales volume from Turkey is equivalent of 17 percent of Gazprom’s total exports outside the former Soviet Union, according to company data.
“The bottom line is militarily, strategically they may want to draw a line and say this has gone too far, but it wouldn’t be wise,” said De Jong. “Essentially if you’ve put so much effort into coveting this burgeoning partnership with Turkey from an energy perspective, that’s all going to be for nothing.”
Perhaps, but it's not clear that Turkey has as much leverage here as analysts claim. Consider this for instance:
“Turkey will probably not want to halt any existing energy arrangements, but it almost certainly means Turkey will start a renewed look at what alternative energy relations it can have,” said John Roberts, an energy security specialist at Methinks Ltd. in Jedburgh, Scotland. “Two obvious choices are becoming a customer for U.S. LNG; the other is Iran.”
Here's a look at the breakdown by country in terms of where Ankara sources its gas:
What analysts seem to be discounting here is that ties between Russia and Iran have strengthened materially over the past six months. Russia's intervention in Syria will not be forgotten in Tehran. As we've detailed exhaustively, ensuring that Damascus doesn't fall to a puppet government of the Saudis is perhaps the most important geopolitical concern for the Iranians. Losing Syria would cut off a supply route to Hezbollah and rollback Iran's Shiite crescent. It's probably not an understatement to say that Tehran will be eternally grateful to Moscow for Russia's participation in Syria on behalf of the government and as we saw when Assad rejected the Qatar-Turkey line but approved the Iran-Iraq-Syria line, these are countries that will, when they feel the situation calls for it, subjegate energy concerns to geopolitics.
Throw in the fact that Russia and Iran are already in talks on a number of energy projects and it seems reasonable to suspect that if Iran believes Turkey is becoming too much of an impediment to the campaign in Syria, Tehran may just decide to drive a harder bargain when it comes to gas supplies. In short: if you're Turkey, you don't really want to put yourself in a position where your fallback plan in the event you anger your biggest energy supplier is to try and negotiate for more trade with that supplier's closest geopolitical ally, especially when you are actively seeking to subvert both of their goals in a strategically important country. As WSJ put it on Wednesday, "diverting the energy trade wouldn’t be easy."
No, it most certainly would not "be easy", and the big question going forward is this: is it realistic to believe, given what's going on in Syria, that Iran will be willing to make it any easier?
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I hope turkey freezes their turd stained hands off...
^ This, Francis. Turkey has been aiding ISIS from the start.
White House, Media Silent One Year After Murder of US Reporter Who Exposed Western Links to ISIS October 20, 2015
Gazprom is cutting off the Ukraine because they failed to prepay for their gas as agreed. When the Ukraine coughs up the money, then Russia will turn on the tap.
Because it's all about the fiat. Always has been and always will be. Control the fiat and you control the world......or at least your little part of it.
Turkey will get the money to pay Gazprom, they will get it from the IMF, who will get it from the US Treasury, who will get it from the Fed.
Turkey's nat gas will not be cut off by Russia unless Erdogan does something really stupid like closing down the Bosphorus straits. If Erdogan plays this card, expect the Turkish economy to further implode, with his family losing billions of dollars literally overnight.
Further, russia will rightly construe this as an act of war, and will respond appropriately. One approach may be to help the Kurds carve out their own state from Turkey.
Here’s my humpable observation of the recent change in the Russia-Turkey “relationship”.
Usually, a wife catching the husband fooling around with somebody else would divorce the bastard, but…
A smart wife would stick around AND nag the hell out of the dude “for as long as they both shall live”.
Putin is, rightfully, going to milk Turkey for all it’s got – ISIS, the Turkish Stream, NATO, Azerbaijan’s gas to Europe, Nagorno-Karabakh, etc.
Erdogan has stepped into a huge pile of camel-poo. I hope he’s got a spare pair of white Nikes layin’ around. ;-)
Looney
Good call Looney, let Russian not renege on Turkey's Gaz contract but send it via Cruise Missiles.
Cold Turkey has got me on the run.
Being the USs bagboy little bitch isn't all CIA peaches and Defence Deptartment cream
Clearly Russia has the leveredge at the moment and the West is poking the Bear with an ever shrinking stick, as the Wests finances begin to look more and more Russia's in the 80s.
The most interesting part is the MSM Propaganda machine in full display, as the wires report that,
"Russia cust off it's gas to Ukraine",
And The American Press in Large bold Headlines Lie to the American People with,
"Ukraine refuses to buy gas from Russia"
Russia has lots of creative options before doing something so unimaginative as turning off the gas. Rusia will first do things Russia wants to do, which are excused by this bullshit ambush. Then Russia may do things that cost Turkey, but not Russia, or that cost Erdogan, but not his political opponents. The tension of cutting the gas should just hang there...
Russia maybe might ram it home by reducing supply pressure in the gas line, reduced pressure will result in lost volume.
Russia could rightly say "We have not reduced pressure everything is fine our end comrad, you must have a leak"
A hard winter is coming to Europe; nearly here. Russia could cause them a lot of pain without cutting them off.
Looney, so well put.
May I share the late, great Sam Kinison version...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SJIh2WLOQA
Putin will continue to bitch that it is all so unfair and they are mistreated. Meanwhile his airliners, fighter jets and maybe soon ships will go down. Electricty to Crimea cut off and that is just the start.
Concrete actions against his "someday" actions.
More teardrops pouring from this butthurt ukropina.
Somehow quite funny ISIS is now NATO member and Ukraine is not.
Blankone why so butthurt bro?
It's simple. Anglo-America and Israel want Russia to react and hit out. Russia's not doing that, so they keep trying. That just goes to show how insane they are, and how level-headed the Russians are, but don't expect it to last. The Russians have a threshold, and they're getting angrier and angrier at the constant provocation. Perhaps that's exactly what Anglo-Zion wants, but the outcome might not go to plan. If Russia does eventually crack under all this pressure, I think the Anglo-Zionist Empire of Chaos will be on the receiving end of a whole lot more pain than they bargained for.
Meanwhile you carry on scoffing at Russia's patience while you can. It just goes to show you're yet another moron who can't read the signs.
Smart
Humpable observation - added to dictionary
Dear Turks;
We're shutting you off indefinitely because we know you don't like our products crossing your borders; however, if you're willing to pay for gas with gold or silver, we will begrudgingly continue to supply you.
Hugs,
Vlad
Not going to happen.Iran has a Kurdish issue as well.It will not look kindly on
Russua if they do anything to inflame that problem.
Turkey already committed an act of war against Russia.
If Turkey closes the straits they will get the Russian punch though in full force if need be.
Personally I hope they take all of European land from Turkey.
Poland stopped these assholes at Vienna some 3 centuries ago. It would be awesome to see Russia kick their asses back out of Europe completely.
They could make some instant friends also with Greeks and Bulgaria.
Give Greece back their islands, including rest of Cyprus and give Bulgaria most of the European land.
They could keep Constantinople and the straits.
It would also cure the refuge problem and Russia has no problem with mass relocations.
How do you see the BIS's role in all of this? Honest question, trying to figure this out....
Seeing as how even Russia's central bank is a bis member, are all the nationalistic theatrics and wars just their way of keeping the board balanced? Is the US even "in charge," or is our military simply being used to take out remaining non member states("7 countries in 5 years.."), and the conflict with Russia/China being prepped to balance us out when that's done?
CD, I'm actually surprised at your statement, being that you and Ms. CogDis live in a rural environment. You, more than anybody, should know that (mixing mutiple metaphors here) that food and energy are where the rubber meets the road. Fiat is soley a means to an end, and, while convenient, has limited shelf-life.
I am currently living in upstate NY with my only heat supplied by my ability to cut wood and burn it. I can choose to freeze to death this winter or work hard before everything is frozen and spend December - March at a reasonable level of comfort. I've been sawing for weeks and am not even close. Should have started earlier. Note to self and other newbies or those unprepared. Figure out how much wood you need and double it, then add another 40% just in case it's a really harsh winter.
Russia and Iran, the suppliers, hold all the cards, especially since they have geographical proximity to Turkey and Ukraine - and Europe. If people want to heat with gas and oil, their choice.
For me...
Long timber.
yet you have the time to post on ZH instead of sawing and choping wood. Right. Suuuuuuuuuuuuuure.
Dude, it's 8:37 here. Pretty dark, though the full moon is nice.
Let me make it crystal clear for you. Working with either a chain saw or an axe at night is not exactly a prudent endeavor.
Besides, I did mention "burning" which is what is happening behind me right now, or, maybe you missed that.
Just a suggestion, but you might want to read a little St. Thomas Aquinas, particularly, Summa Theologica.
Serious question. Do you plant trees to replace the ones you chop down?
yeah, since the forest doesnt do that naturally or anything
Its tough to do at night, rain, snow
For the average Jane and Joe Blow (and those who manipulate their reality) it IS all about the fiat. I was speaking of the consensus reality, not the minority view of Mrs Cog and I.
OK, no harm, no foul. Seriously, though, if we are going to endeavor to change things, timber is a key element. Give me a little time. I'm a quick study.
I appreciate your input and your blog (yes, I've read some of it, but, your writing style, well, I'll leave that for when we have an evening or two). If we're ever going to do something other than type stuff on the internet, we need to think well beyond fiat and toward - dare I say it - a more sustainable future.
Now, that may not be for all seven billion inhabitants of planet earth, but for the survivors, I'm thinking back to basics isn't a bad start.
Oh yeah. Those pipelines!
'War, war never changes'
Ukraine will not purchase Russian gas till the end of 2015 - supplies from the West and the reserves in underground storage facilities are sufficient. - Ukrainian Media
That's something I don't believe. I explained this once here in a comment, but nevertheless, here I go again: Ukraine's underground gas storage facilites need to be filled with gas during the summer, when the consumption of gas is low. They did not do it. As the rate of consumption increases as temeratures drop, total rate of consumption exceeds carrying capacity of the pipe, so some of the gas has to be supplied from underground storage. If the storage is empty, well, someone has to freeze their ass off. Usually it was the Europeans, as Ukraine regularly siphoned gas from the pipeline. Of course, everyone was always blaming Putin and Gazprom, despite the fact that Gazprom does its best to honor contracts. As for Putin, I'm seriously considering he's God himself, as he gets the blame for almost everything. As the Russians joke sometimes: "Your life is going under? Yeah, that's Putin's blunder". I'd also add that the so called DPR and Russia halted the delivery of coal to Ukraine as a reprisal for cutting Crimea off the grid.
The last time the bill was due, Ukraine put forward cash for a whole 5 days of gas. 5 whole days! That tells you how much you need to know about the state of the Ukraine economy. The Ukraine oligarchs are milking the IMF loans for all they are worth. When TSHTF, the ordinary Ukrainians are going to find they have been lumbered with the bill.
Ukrainians are very angry at the government right now. They know very well about the corruption. Problem is the unlike with Maidan, Soros is not financing and directing these individuals so they are not organized. That only last for so long.
LOL like that Nigerian guy who scammed $2B he was given to fight Boko Haram, that didn't get much coverage. Stealing a bil is easy these days, look at Malaysia. Taking the West's money in Kiev is child's play
Ukraine should just tap the HUGE gas field that the country sits on and tell Gazprom to pack sand
You in stand-up comedy to earn not tried? The funniest.
That gas field nearby Unicorn Forest and Rainbow Mountain?
Hey stilllosingpenis. The only tapping that will happen will be me tapping ur hairy mother and russia tapping turkeys sweet and gentle ass.
and you should wake up. Ukraine doesn't have any gas feilds.
cheesus!
Thank you, Nuland for Banderastan.
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/11/us-gives-their-prox...
Russia just needs to close the Syria - Turkey border, and arm the Kurds to the teeth with AA and TOW missiles.
In parallel, Iran needs to support the Kurds on the ground, to break Turkey in half.
Turkey is Saddam stupid...
"For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" - Isaac Newton
Newton's third Law of Emotion: "For every male action, there is a female over-reaction."
Erdogan = Hitler? Malignant narcissists?
I believe that the House of Saud, will gladly supply the needed gas.
It appears as though this Putin fellow fashions himself a a Napolean Bonaparte, and Syria may well be his Waterloo
As I have previously stated
Rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add 'within the limits of the law' because law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the rights of the individual.
Thomas Jefferson
Hey blowwell. U mean like the way the NSA has been violating citizens right to privacy for decades? Or like the way the USSA has been violating a countrys right to govern itself?
Nothing can stop the man with the right mental attitude from achieving his goal; nothing on earth can help the man with the wrong mental attitude.
Thomas JeffersonAnd what?
"Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just, that his justice cannot sleep forever."
Thomas Jefferson
Oh yeah, the Saudis would luv to supply Turkey with gaz, there's just those other pesky countries lying in the path (Jordan, Iraq & SYRIA!)
Newsflash: Russia stopped the gas to Ukraine after the Ukies cut off the electricity to Crimea.
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/11/us-gives-their-prox...
Noplebian take your spamming elsewhere, boar.
Where does the Demonic Republic of Switzerland get their gas?
Switzerland is just too big of an anomaly, to be logically explained ... like the moon.
... and why does the Vatican have "Swiss" Guards?
The god of zion hides in Switzerland.
But baby its cold outside...
Firewood - and cats - that is all we have.
Edit : but we very rarely go below 60.
Ukraine was asking for it. Now Nuland can go to Maidan and hand out gas:
Top Ukraine official backs idea 'to help ISIS take revenge on Russian soldiers in Syria’https://www.rt.com/news/317849-ukrainian-russia-isis-revenge/
Qatar and Ukraine come to deliver Pechora-2D to ISIShttp://www.voltairenet.org/article189366.html
Well, Nuland is a gasbag
Sorry Berspankme by the time i'd read this post your comment was not showing. Brilliant minds and all. If you're a female let's get engaged.
Sorry I'm one of those unusual hetero males
Starting to feel like a unicorn myself, but women do love a little horn.
Glory to the Ukraine self-destruction spectacle!
To the heroes, glory dripping from unhealed gonorrhea!
That may work temporarily 'cause she's full of Gaz.
Looks like the ole USSA taxpayer will be on the hook as the zionist govt in Ukraine will not pay up.
The Ukrainians will be eating Nuland's cookies to keep warm - put on your apron Vicky, ya got a shitload of cookies to bake...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xw8hcXBA7X4
turkey is getting alot of cheap oil from isis, which it sells for a profit...perhaps turkey feels it can do without russia's gas? i've wondered for a while if part of putin's entry into syria wasn't influenced by the money & oil flowing between turkey, syria & iraq. iran may've used that argument when convincing russia to join the struggle to back assad. please, some ME/oil experts (Cdirtlump or others) correct me, & point out the flaws in this. thanks
Flaw is Russian planes and missiles destroying ISIS' oil transport.
.... and then the US decided to chip in to make it look good. Russia wiped out more of their oil infrastructure and transport in weeks than the US did in years. You should really watch the footage it will make you smile.
Occident Mortal
Turkey will get the money to pay Gazprom, they will get it from the IMF, who will get it from the US Treasury, who will get it from the Fed, who will create it out of thin air.
What a scam!
Flaw that Russia is gambling on is that Fed's ability to continue doing this is on a death watch.
I've seen it suggested that Russia can inflict a price on Turkey without an overt act oby cutting off all gas transit through Ukraine. Which would cut of European Turkey's gas supply. It would also cut off the supply to many European countries. If as seems likely Ukraine's willingness to stop buying Russian gas is due to its ability to siphon off and steal gas in transit,, certainly with the cutoff of electric power to Crimea Russia could be seen as justified, and the damage to Euope a natural consequence of enabling the US coup and war in Ukraine. Perhaps Russia could cut the gas sgoing into the pipelines by the amount being stolen, then when it's still being stolen do it again in a few weeks.
A Ukraine crisis that Russia would be hard put to ignore would be a meltdown of Ukrainian nuclear reactors due to the self-inflicted wound to the power grid. Faced with the prospect of massive plumes of radioactive fallowt making the donetsk and Lower Don regions uninhabitable, Russia might feel it had to intervene, drive out the Nazis in chardge fo the reactors and take charge of the dfforts to control the damage.The US would of course make hay out of that.
Another crisis would be S-400 missiles shooting down US fighter planes. A gambiSomething the US could present at any time.
The missing player here is China. Putin is doing his damnedist to avoid a train wreck, but the US is quite able to keep pushing him so long as our leaders imagine they have the danger of a global confrontation including China contained.
China will not risk itself for Russia. Russia/Putin have betrayed every allie they have had. They have used their destruction and slaughter (including the EUke's) to divert NATO away from Russia. Russia even has sought favor by assisting NATO/Massad in the destruction of those countries by voting for or agreeing to no fly zone and sanctions on Russia's "allies".
But then maybe the elite in Russia are a party to a greater plan. A plan that includes the sacrifice of greater Russia.
Go brick chew with grief, defective.
Dude, do your research before spouting off.
http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/05/22/russia-china-alliance/
Russia and China are now the equivalent of the US and Canada. They're best buddies.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=156482
China is building needed infrastructure such as railways into Russia and Russia is supplying China with fuel and raw materials. They have a number of joint ventures going on with mutual interests highlighted.
Do your research dude.....
This is a dream of the putin cok suking community.............
Facts is that you guys are wrong...................
Th Putin Pussy Brigrade is ready and waiting......................
Do they still shoot people over there for not likin putin?
Serious ?
Always you so close to metaphor with cocks (this, by the way, Freud is clear).
regarding the above-i thought you had to be 12 or older to post on ZH
The article is from 2013?. And what has happened to the great railway plan since? yep
Even the gas pipelines that were such a rush had to be slowed down. What is the status on the multiple gas lines?
China is taking care of China, no more.
thank you, Whywait, you've given me a great deal to consider...& yes MN i too have enjoyed the youtube videos, thank you especially freddie...the apache protecting the conveys made a seminal impact. again, WW...thank you.
No gas for you! One year! Next!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOpfsGrNvnk
This is what you get Putin for betraying the EUke's. Twice when the EUke's had trapped and were about to destroy the WUke forces Putin forced the EUke's to let the WUke's to safely walk away. Twice. The commander of the EUke's called this a betrayal by Putin. I believe that commander was then assisnated by a roadside bomb.
Putin sold gas to WUke at a discount. Supporting the killers of the EUke's.
Last week Putin backed down and agreed to allow WUke to pay the 3 billion in 3 payments. 1 billion each of the next 3 yrs.
If Putin had at least supported the EUke's properly the WUke's would have been overthrown by now. Putin force the president of WUke to NOT fire upon of react to the nazi instigators when they began the overthrow of the elected govt.. It all could have been stopped right then. The area would be secured and the power lines to Crimea would not be easy targets.
Putin had a plan to get Crimea and he accomplished that.
WUke has stored a lot of gas underground. Perhaps much of it siphoned off without payment. If the pipeline flows gas they can steal what they want, thus forcing Putin to stop the flow. Then the west tells those downstream it is Putin's fault they are freezing.
The elite jews in Uke will be well paid for this. It is the citizens who will suffer. Can those elites hold on. They have been aggressively assisnating their potential opponents.
what is russia doing? why is it playing along with this nonsense? why do they not create their own aritficial trading partners like usa did?
russia is actually much more in position than any country in the world to become the reverse currency
theyve got endless oil gas metals like gold silver uran
theyve got the technology and science
theyve got 4 major religions (buddhism included)
theyve got the intelligence and experience + people of knowlage
they multicutural with over 140 minorities + most russian are mixed to something
what is the problem with them, why are they sleeping?
Please stop using the word rebels when these people come from Chechnia, Europe, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and numerous Arab countries. It is ridiculous to do so and you know it is so.
Mercenaries, men who fight for money.
"Out of Gas" is my favorite episode in the Firefly francise.
I think I'll watch it again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBTzUunQTFw
The whole thing's turning into a Turkey shoot.
Turkish “Sultan” Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stupidity is only exceeded by his dishonesty and arrogance. Turkey is trying to undermine both Russia and Iran and considering Turkey’s support for ISIS, one would expect that Iran will drive a hard bargain with nat gas exports. How much will Turkey pay for nat gas shipped from the US? “Sultan” Erdogan’s neo Ottoman obsession with creating a new Turkish caliphate may well end up being smoldering rubble. Turkish voters are seeing the consequences of their vote.
“Two obvious choices are becoming a customer for U.S. LNG; the other is Iran.”
US LNG? Perrrrrrfect! I know there has been a lot of work in building LNG liquefaction plants and export terminals in the Gulf. Deliveries were supposed to start at the end of the year. People are building import terminals in Europe too... Croatia is one.
If I was Putin, I'd cut off energy shipments to Ukraine and Turkey (and also get Iran to reduce or eliminate shipments to Turkey).
Plus collaborate with China to dump all USSA and NATO bonds on the market, and simultaneously buy all the physical gold and silver those revenues product.
And henceforth require all others to pay for their energy with gold, silver or other durable good.
And finally, in collaboration with China and others, introduce a 100% redeemable, 100% gold-backed currency that does not have a nation-specific name, but instead is called "gold-grams", denominated and backed in grams of 99.99% pure physical gold, and redeemable for 99.99% pure physical gold in 1kg units.
In other words, don't "respond in kind" (as in "militarily"), but in some way that has a much greater impact and consequence on the predators-that-be (the world system of central-banksters).
-----
As an aside, Putin has one huge disadvantage at the moment. And that huge disadvantage is the USSA (and NATO as a result) can create unlimited fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-note bits at zero expense... then buy whatever military assets they want, buy off whatever terrorists and mercenaries they want, and generally have no need to spend funds efficiently. In contrast, most suppliers won't accept Rubels, the only fiat currency Putin can create.
And so, the only effective way for Putin (and China) to offset the endless and increasingly insane and dangerous behavior by the USSA and NATO is to destroy their fiat advantage. And the only way that I can think of (off the top of my head) that they can do that is the ways I mention above. Never try to win a fight by fighting in the ways and on the terms that are the oppositions strengths. Surely Putin must know this.
Ann, thankfully, you are not Putin. May I humbly suggest you bone up on your chess skills and tend to your own survival (I know that can become boring, once you believe to have it mastered) rather than play geopolitical headgames.
Sometimes, simpler is better.
I still respect you, though, and will tomorrow.
I'm always open to better ideas. In fact, I'd love to hear better ideas when the potential stakes are so high, as in global thermonuclear war or worse.
But I do tend to prefer self-sufficiency approaches. I personally believe any fictitious nation with lots of natural resources would be wise to become as completely self-sufficient as possible.
Just imagine how much hassle that policy could avoid.
In the case of Russia, they have another option that's almost as self-sufficient but much easier... due to their enormously long border with China.
However, no matter what I say, I would love to hear lots of other ideas from lots of other people, because the neo-con-jobs and their central-bankster collaborators have become incredibly dangerous... possibly to all life on earth.
Ann, you already have the answers. I know that from previous posts of yours.
As i mentioned earlier, your own survival is paramount. Start there and move forward.
Be guided by history and the wisdom of those who have come before you.
The neocons and banksters are not your immediate concern, until you make them that.
I cannot make my point any more straightforward than to suggest you strengthen your own position and improve your immediate surroundings. You alone, nor even all of the ZH loyalists, do not have the power to dethrone the current power structure.
Aim for your own structure, your own economy. Others are doing so, though not many. Consider yourself the vanguard of a new age, because THAT will set freedom in motion.
I can only ask that you ignore the PTB. We are all ultimately responsible for our own actions.
Act responsibly.
As an aside, I have found great wisdom and guidance from reading the works of people such as John Stuart Mill, Aristotle, and recently Sun Tzu's Art of War. There are copies online of the latter. I'd suggest Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, but I'm stuck at page 624. Seriously, nobody should entertain to discuss anything economical unless they've read the whole thing, so there it is. I, like you, are inadequate. There's nothing stopping us, save our own human frailties, from becomeing whole.
Well, if you've suffered through enough of my ZH messages, you know I moved to the extreme boonies in the southern hemisphere nearly 4 years ago.
Since then I've developed my 100% self-sufficient digs 125km from the nearest human being and ~250km from any substantial population. So, I'm far away from humans, my place is not accessible by land vehicle, is pretty much invisible from the air (and with little air traffic nearby), and am finally completely self-sufficient.
So I've done just about everything except take the final step... create a nuclear bomb and radiation proof underground place where I could live for decades. Actually, I could theoretically do something like that given there's a natural cave here with lower levels that reach down to a natural water table... except for two things. First, I spent over 90% of my savings to create the self-sufficient digs I have now, which leaves too little to expand in this way. Second, I can't grow food for decades when sealed underground without an additional huge investment, which I don't have... and I'm not inclined to buy 40 years of canned food to keep me alive in such a miserable environment (no sun, only recycled air, only canned food, no travel, no variety, no hope of a better future).
I fully understand my approach is totally wrong for most people. It is only reasonable for me because of my peculiar tastes, situation, personality and experience. I'm naturally a hermit, and love living alone and isolated from human beings. I'm very much a hands-on scientist, engineer, inventor type, so I can keep my place operating when stuff wears out or breaks. And I'm a private pilot with nice little super-efficient airplane (75mpg and 4000km+ range), so I can travel wherever I want, whenever I want without land vehicle (or worrying about fictitious national boundaries).
So my approach is different... a much more individualistic and solitary one. So I have the luxury of simply ignoring all the social aspects, forming synergistic collaborations with other humans, figuring out how to defend myself against hordes of zombies, and other problems people who live near other human beings need to worry about. Frankly, I tried for many years (over a decade) to form collaborations with others to do slightly larger versions of what I ended up doing myself, but I was never able to get people to pull the trigger and "do it". Now that I've done it all myself... sure... people would be happy to move in and live the easy life off my work. Not my style. I don't mind having one or a few people around, but they have to be special people to hold any interest for me (honest, ethical, skilled, creative, productive and benevolent at minimum).
Pretty much, I only comment on these "world issues" as a remote observer. If someone was to criticize me and say "you have no stake, so shut up", I'd have to say they have a point. I'm only trying to observe and toss in my two cents for whatever its worth (probably zero). The fact is, ZH has become a bit of an addiction, and a habit that I should probably break, because every minute away from the project I'm collaborating on is a minute away from permanently getting off this rock, and becoming immortal. That's what I do 80% of the time I'm awake, the other 20% being divided between raising and growing my food, and babble pointlessly here on ZH.
BTW, becoming whole (albeit in a modular way) is one way to describe the collaborative project I'm working on. And as a laughable aside, I'll lose all my human frailties in the process. And good riddens to them.
Sorry I missed your last comment. It was late and I went to bed.
Obviously, it's morning now and I just want to wish you well and good luck on your project. Have to chuckle a little, though, because you come off like one of those James Bond villians, i.e., remote locale, cave, plan to become immortal.
Just kidding. You are one of my favorites around here, because you're honest and straight up, unlike the eight people who downvoted me (I think they're more or less "defending" you) or the guy below you thinks I'm a bloviating, pseudo-intellectual. Takes one to know one, I guess, but I was a philosophy major in college, so I read a lot of classical literature. I usually don't come off as "intellectual" but it's in my background.
OK, now I'm bloviating. I'll shut up and wish you and everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.
Those of us working on this project are indeed "very weird people", assuming "weird" means "unusual". Definitely.
OTOH, from our perspective, the vast majority of humans are "very boring" (much too normal).
The very odd thing about us... compared to 007 villians anyway... is that we have no plans or desires to "take over the world". In fact, our plan is laughably opposite. When we finish our project, we plan to permanently leave earth to assure we are left alone by any and all human predators, especially predators-that-be.
So, unlike 007 villians, we're no danger to anyone. None of us look outwardly strange like 007 villians either. But inside our heads... well... definitely not normal.
Interesting you were into philosophy. Though we tend to think of our project as "pure science and engineering", the truth is, the crucial step that started this project and makes it possible was pretty much "philosophy". More specifically, "hardcore epistemology" (as in "identify the fundamental (and detailed) nature of simple through advanced consciousness").
Once the originator of this project came to fully understand consciousness, he was able to create an architecture to implement advanced smarter-than-human consciousness with inorganic components (sensors, computer, software, memory, robotics).
With a few exceptions and qualifications all these subsystems are conventional and off-the-shelf. What is new is the specific software (written in a conventional programming language) and the nature and architecture of the content of consciousness (stored and recalled from conventional computer RAM/FLASH/HDISK).
Unfortunately (but not surprisingly), though the first implementation fully worked, it was massively (egregiously) slower than human consciousness. Perhaps surprisingly, however, it was not what most folks would imagine is the speed problem (high-level, complex, abstract conceptual consciousness), but instead perception, especially the "vision system". So in addition to some improvements of the general architecture, we must implement certain processes (like much of the low-level processes in the vision system) with hardware, not software. This isn't terribly difficult, but is a lot of work, and we don't have outside funding to speed the process. I'm sure you can guess why (we refuse to let this technology fall into the hands of the predators-that-be or MIC and become part of some horrible over-the-top mass surveillance and military/warfare technology).
Back to work for me. No Turkey for me. I'm not a cannibal after all. Hahaha.
True to.my persona, I won't mince my words:
You, 'Sir', are a presumptuous, bloviating, pseudo-intellectual arse.
Her argument may seem extreme, but the times call for it. I only wish that TPTB in Beijing and Moscow had the balls to do what she recommends.
Alas, such sage advice will be moderated/bastardized by the selfish and compromised interests of their respective Oligarchs.
Cool ann! Russia and China have been stacking hand over fist in line with your observations.
The Punk-Fiat Manipulators know the writing's on the wall and are desperate. that's my worry; they'd take the whole ship down with them.
An unit of gold should represent an unit of energy.
For example one gigajoule of energy could cost one milligram of gold.
Every good and service could be priced in terms of energy required to produce that good or service.
Fuck the banksters of zion.
What you say makes a lot of sense, but has a flaw. It ignores the fact that the value of a thing is not entirely the energy required to produce it. The substance also has value, the rarity might be relevant, and the time, effort, difficulty and [non-energy] expense of shaping the substance into the required form also is part of its value.
So it isn't valid to literally equate a unit of energy with a gram of some material.
To take an absurd example that makes the point, the value (in terms of utility) of a high-end integrated circuit created 10 years ago was enormous 20 years ago, and is virtually zero now.
So you're idea is important and relevant, but not the whole story.
Revenge is better served on a longer time verison.....It is kid's play to cut off gas immediately to retaliate...NO, no, no
What other choices Turkey has? LNG? or other sources.....
Russia can wait until its gas line is operable for the supply to China market.....So, russia can claim it always honors the contract....a reliable trading partner....then when the time is right, screeze Turkey and get back double, triple, revenge......
And, if Turkey shall make another blunder....so be it...then Russian has the reason to terminate the contract and cut Turkey off.....Whatever the amount Russia needs for the sales to Turkey, China can always finance it without any problem....
On a time verizon long enough, Turkey is a turkey.....
Agreed. Please refer to top right hand corner of page. "On a long enough timeline..."
said another way, the nextel time, Turkey should think twice.
Markets are closed so the russian, pootin propaganda compaign will go on and on...........
For all of us that know Russia sucks and Putin suks way more........
Why dont all of you pootin cocksucking faggots go to russia and suk pootins cok.........
Oh, thats right.... Nobody wants to go to russia....
Any of these syrian refugees trying to get into Russia?
Yearning for the days when this was a market blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go bak into your cave you pootin propagandists!!!!!!! or pootin turkeys.....HA
Snowden went to Russia. Maybe Fremen should follow?
Nose up Obameys arse ? Try again. The "refugees" want to go to Sweden - or Dogface Merkels dying Germany. I vote Putin.
Remember, Conchita, Russia it's not Europa.
On gay parades ass paint in yellow and blue?
By the way, how's lace panties? Or easier without them in the ass?
Actually, I'd love to visit Russia. I hear they have some stupendous WWII memorials (built decades earlier than our single one), fantastic architecture, and populated with essentially a basic, moral valued, people.
Yeah, they have their problems, drugs, alcohol, gangs and shit. But is it any different than here?
One of the things my wife and I do when we're in any place for a day or so is to ask the locals what they are proudest of in that town and where it is so we can go see it. The results can be surprising, and most times awesome. And with Russian history, I'd expect even better.
Just wished I took Russian in High School instead of Spanish.
The Europeans and the IMF can cough up the money on Ukraine's behalf.Everyone knows that the European Central Bank is a servant to the Fed because of swap lines being used to save the stupid basturds.That's why you do as you are told by the NeoCons running Washington.The Europeans can afford to eat the debt by printing more fiat and debauching their currency into the basement.That's how Washington gets their way,it's through financial control of useless assholes.The same might happen for Turkey if Russia and Iran cut them off.It would be nice to see Russia and Iran say to Turkey,"We don't want your fuckin' dirty currency,we want your Gold you bunch of ISIS supporting basturds".
Russia holds all the cards in dealing with Turkey. If Turkey wants to play hardball, the price of Russian oil and gas will go up. It is simple and painful for Turkey to fuck over Russia. Once Turkey has committed to the Russian pipeline and related infrastructure it will become a captive market to Russia and the Russians know it! ErDOGen is fucking his countries future by supporting the Daesh and being a NATO puppet. His policy will literally blowup in his face. I can hardly wait to hear about the Turkish tank columns being wasted by the Russians and Syrian Army when and if they cross the border to Syria. Fuck Turkey, they are the most untrustworthy government there is, a reputation the Turkish republic has earned over the decades.
Sorry to bum you out
But the latest is that Russia plans to do nothing
they are not just dealing with Turkey
Turkey is just following orders
However the bear may be about to take 3 ribs [nations]
kind of foreordained
stay tuned
H2S + H2O = rusty pipes.. and it doesn't take to much.. there go the pumps, then the pipes, it is as simple as not cleaning the gas (a big money saver)
Russia won't cut Turkey off, but you will see a price increase, and there will be some short disruptions to remind Erdogan who holds the cards.
News flash...."Lithuania has replaced Russian gas, with US LNG."
The LNG terminal can supply enough gas to supply the Baltic and part of Poland they no longer need Putin. In fact prices have gone down, considering they were paying the highest price in Europe. With Putin pushing all his stupid games, raising the price on a whim or cut you off for no reason, they will have no customers soon. The Baltic's are not the only ones doing this, but they are one of the 1st. In fact there are now plans to start building interconnecting pipelines, across multiple countries. With even a proposal to push them into Ukraine. China may soon become Russia's only customer, and they are paying below spot.
A lie in every sentence. To answer don't see the point.
Best argument of the night. Plus one.
I suspect Saudies will back Turkey with oil for what they did to Russia. I hope they run out of oil soon.
Does anyone care to explain to me what Erdogan actually thought he was going to get out of this attack?
He might have thought that he somehow could manage to scare the Russians from bombing his Turkmen allies in Syria , but it seems hardly likely that the Russians will do that , not now anyway. He might also have taught that the entire scheme might have cause Russia some international damage and perhaps hurt their military intentions in Syria. As it turned out all this backfired. Other than this I see no other purpose.
Turkia might have been a great nation back in the days of Cyres the great, but they will hopefully never again regain such greatness. This mad attack might have been the stupidest thing Erdogan ever tried to pull off.
Turkey is very savvy, as they have correctly figured that the US will bend over backwards to any country that had some vagrant Moslems to placate....
actually the US is hanging Turkey out to dry-even tho they are very pro ISIS
Europe is gassed , Ukraine is first,
Then Turkey , then, whos next
-----
While BRICS will strengthen & cut off SWIFT ,
will supply independent of US dollar to China etc
Petro dollar gone
-----
Abrahmic religions say :
' The dead shall rise from graves(petroleum/gas)
and deliver judgement day to mankind (Nuclear world war 3 the apocalypse)'
Yes you violence loving asuras Christians, Jewws & Muslims , you must always fight with each other , destroy each other.
I am thankful for uplifting messages.
Hope. Change. Vodka.
Yesterday in Moscow, Russians where breaking windows at the Turkish Embassy. Russian tour operators are CANCELLING contracts with Turkish hotels and resorts. Soon, any Russian who goes to Turkey for holiday.
Yes? Waiting with baited breath...
(my breath smells like bait? More tequila and beer!)
Ukraine says it won't buy anymore gas from Russia (though they don't pay for it). Now it goes to Europe and says it wants to buy gas(but isn't go to pay Europe for it either).
Does Blue Rhino deliver ?
Historically, the USSA has NOT been a reliable strategic alliance partner to place your whole nut on.....rather, more of a whore to the sugar daddy who abandons the pregnancy. But Ergodan appears to be a narcissist with visions of Ottoman grandeur....... He may think with zio-bank (US-UK support) eventually the Qatar-Saudi gas will replace Russia's gas and certainly won't turn to Iranian gas.
LNG from the US is very unlikely ........ Qatar LNG is the umbilical cord till the ISISpipeline baby comes to term.
Putin may be turkey's unplanned parenthood with a later term abortion IF they do not toe the line and you can count on Putin to "execute" the regional plan with certain outcome as long as Russia does not run out of cash.
(but one scud from Iran will take +/- 5M bbls per day off the market) Several scuds ? CHECKMATE Wahhabbikimosabe !
Russia needs the gas card to have Black Sea access, or are they going to have to dust of that old Ekranoplan?