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Turkey's Trump Card: Erdogan Can Cut Russia's Syrian Supply Line By Closing Bosphorus
On Saturday, Russia unveiled a raft of economic sanctions against Turkey in retaliation for Ankara’s brazen move to shoot down an Su-24 warplane near the Syrian border. Charter flights to Turkey are now banned, Turkish imports will be curbed, visa-free travel is no more, Russian tourism companies are forbidden from selling travel packages that include a stay in Turkey, and Turkish firms will face restrictions on their economic activity.
“It’s not just Turkey that has economic interests, Russia too has economic interests in relation to Turkey,” Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu said on Saturday, adding that he hoped Putin would act in a "cool-headed" manner.
Russia does indeed have economic interests in Turkey. Ankara paid Gazprom some $10 billion last year and Turkey accounts for nearly a third of the company's nat gas exports:

But this is most assuredly a two way street. As we noted on Saturday, Turkey is heavily dependent on Russia for energy and souring relations will put a non-trivial dent in Ankara's tourism revenues:

As we discussed on Wednesday, the idea that Turkey can easily replace Russian gas may be a pipe dream (no pun intended) despite Erdogan's grandstanding. Here's how we explained the situation facing Ankara:
What analysts (and Erdogan) seem to be discounting here is that ties between Russia and Iran have strengthened materially over the past six months and Russia's intervention in Syria will not be forgotten in Tehran. Throw in the fact that Russia and Iran are already in talks on a number of energy projects and it seems reasonable to suspect that if Iran believes Turkey is becoming too much of an impediment to the campaign in Syria, Tehran may just decide to drive a harder bargain when it comes to gas supplies. In short: if you're Turkey, you don't really want to put yourself in a position where your fallback plan in the event you anger your biggest energy supplier is to try and negotiate for more trade with that supplier's closest geopolitical ally, especially when you are actively seeking to subvert both of their goals in a strategically important country. As WSJ put it on Wednesday, "diverting the energy trade wouldn’t be easy."
No, it most certainly would not "be easy", and the big question going forward is this: is it realistic to believe, given what's going on in Syria, that Iran will be willing to make it any easier?
Ultimately, it's diffiult to say who has the stronger hand. Russia and Turkey - despite an otherwise tenuous relationship set against a history of confrontation (see The Czar vs. the Sultan from Foreign Policy) - have developed a lucrative trade partnership that neither side is particularly keen on scrapping. That said, the stakes are high and now that Moscow has hit back with sanctions, the ball is in Ankara's court.
Despite bombastic rhetoric from Erdogan (whose tone has softened at bit over the last 48 or so hours), Turkey cannot shoot down another Russian warplane. If they do, they risk an outright military confrontation with Russia. So unless Erdogan intends to plunge NATO into an armed conflict with the Russians, he'll need to find other ways to retailiate and refusing to buy from Gazprom probably isn't the the first, best option from a practical point of view.
What Turkey could do, however, is close the the Bosphorus Strait which would effectively cut Russia's supply line to Latakia.
Russia's biggest risk: Turkey shuts down Bosphorus to Russian ship transit
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 28, 2015
Here's Sputnik:
Tensions between Russia and Turkey over the downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber in Syria may challenge freedom of navigation through the Bosphorus Strait, a major pathway for Russian ships. However, a Turkish unilateral ban on the passage of Russian ships is unlikely since it would violate international law.
In recent months, Russia’s heavy military equipment has been delivered to Syria mostly by sea, with the shortest route coming through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles.
A sharp rise in tensions between Moscow and Ankara may challenge the delivery of Russian weapons and troops through the straits. If passage is prohibited for Russia there is still the way through the Gibraltar (which takes 13-14 days rather than four days through the Bosphorus) or by air.

In peacetime, Turkey is obligated to allow naval warships safe passage regardless of what flag they fly. As Sputnik goes on to note however, "in times of war, the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish government." Although one Russian lawyer who spoke to RBK claims the Turks have no legal ground to block passage, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario whereby Erdogan decides to push the issue.
Indeed, if Ankara can disrupt Moscow's supply route to its forces in Syria, well then all the better for the FSA and all of the other proxy armies battling to hold onto territory near Aleppo in the face of the Russian and Iranian assault.
Of course such a move would raise serious questions regarding Turkey's adherence to the 1936 Montreux Convention and would only serve to inflame tensions between Moscow and Ankara. We'll be watching closely in the days and weeks ahead for evidence that Erdogan is impeding the progress of Russian vessels through the strait and in the meantime we'd remind you that Bilal Erodgan, the President's son and patron saint of Islamic State's multi-hundred million dollar oil enterprise, has a bird's eye view of the drama (from Today's Zaman, earlier this year):
President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an's son Bilal Erdo?an has moved his shipping company's office to a newly built four-story building with a Bosporus view in ?stanbul's Beylerbeyi neighborhood.
The Sözcü daily reported on Sunday that Bilal Erdo?an, a co-partner of a shipping company, has moved his office from Üsküdar to Beylerbeyi.
According to the claims in the report, Bilal Erdo?an purchased three plots of land on Yal?boyu Street in Beylerbeyi and constructed a four-storey company office on it. The cost of the building is estimated to be TL 340 million. The new office has a view of the Bosporus. It also has a parking lot and a courtyard.
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Oh yeah, poking someone in the eye with a sharp stick always works.
Let's kick Russia in the nuts, and steal all their oil too, while we are at it.
Worked well in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, twice.
Right ?
Right ?
Correct. It won't work. Plus Turkey stands to lose billions. That's shooting itself in the foot. That'd be stupid. Besides, Erdogan might just get whacked and they'd blame Putin and WW3 would start. That's about the scenario some are predicting>> http://bit.ly/1SpGAhB
>Claiming that an act of war against a nuclear armed superpower is a trump card.
No.
Hmm, it appears that Erdogan just announced that Turkey is at war with Russia... Let the games continue...
Please read the terms and conditions of the Montreaux agreement, and then let me know under what conditions it can be invoked.
Technically the English can shut down Gibraltar.
And like that...it ain't gonna happen
How exactly is that done? Are they bold enough to try and block a Russian missile cruiser?
The only way would be to mine the channel and end all passage.
All these analyses are so obviously from a soft, western persepctive. How many times have the Russians gone without, simply to prove a point? How many times have they had their economic livelihoods completely destroyed, and yet risen stronger from the ashes? How many times has Russia been pushed to the absolute brink only to turn around and claim the victory?
Turkey needs Russia more than Russia needs Turkey.
Sure, Russia stands to lose a lot by losing Turkey as a customer. But financial (and physical) harship is nothing new to the Russian people. They wear it like a badge of honour - and Putin (with a 95% approval rating) can afford to have the newly wealthy 25% hate him.
How long can Erdogen survive his people when manufacturing, heating, lighting and basic ammenities cease to function? He's facing a civil war already. How long will the Military support him when the colonels and majors all go home to a cold house full of spoiled food and a wife complaining that nothing works?
Russia will win any economic war with any country that isn't China. And the Russians know it.
Putin is a sad old Russian queen who dreams about the glory days. Well, he's getting owned and pawned by everyone. He's been slapped around more times than a ten dollar whore. Tough guy? My ass.
stop pimping your website with different usernames.
I see that Erdogan has an urgent ass itch.
No problem, Putin will scratch it the hard way.
http://goo.gl/wbvm16
In a different light, a showdown around Bosphorus would be useful to once and for all take that small european bank of Bosphorus out of otoman's hands.
Ever heard of BRICS? And smart ass, read yet that China is entering the foray? A couple of corrupted sinking western nations playing dirty cause that is the ONLY WAY THE CHEATING WEST CAN KEEP A FOOTING.
@ AngrySinner / "King's Whore": Please stop trolling for clickbait.
Go back to Israel, Haim Wiesenberg!
Zionists, certain jihadis, Banksters and Ukrainian Nazis hate V.V.P.
they don't have to block anything. Not that they could, legally speaking.
all Turkey needs to do, in case russians get too cocky, is ensure the "rebels" somehow discover AA missiles. Especially as the russian airforce ain't nothing to write home about. It worked in Afganistan, would work now too.
however, for the time being, since the syrian/iranian offensive didn't achieve much... guess the rebels won't discover AA :p
on the other hand, if Putin tries to be smart and help the kurds...
If the Turks give the mercenaries anti aircraft missiles then Russia will simply change its tactic.
Besides, how are they going to get AA batteries into Syria?
The border is now watched very well.
If a Russian plane gets shot down from Turkish territory the conflict will spread beyond Syrian border and Turkey itself will be part of the battlefield.
I seriously doubt they want an actual and direct war with Russia.
Frankly I doubt anyone wants that.
change it's tactic to what? send troops? it's a lost war anyway...
they have enough border to send all the AA in the world. And I'm sure there'll be some spin as to why the rebels need AA.
Don't see any reason why Turkey itsellf would get involved. Syria is a country with 75% sunni population. After so many years, the civil war inevitably evolved into a sectarian one. So whoever bets against the sunnis is just betting on the losing side. All that the Gulf states + Turkey need to do is bide for time while Iran, and now Russia, waste resources.
I don't understand the iranians. After so many millenias, they should've learnt that any stable form of Persian empire stops at the rivers and doesn't include Syria.
Turkey doesn't have any AA since NATO removed their patriot missiles.
>>>>Technically the English can shut down Gibraltar.<<<<
Theoretically Russia could shut down London.
That's also not going to happen.
Thank you for your support
Well You should not be so sure. Because the Russians are demanding the payment for Ukraine's eurobonds.
And guess who is the warranter for the said bond bought on the London exchange?
So if not the entire city, then at least the city of London will be shut down.
EDIT: This demand will reset the entire fin. system:
-If nobody pays, it creates a precedent and the confidence is gone.
-If they reach a deal about the payment under new favorable conditions for Ukraine. Again precedent and the PIGS and the 3rd world nations will demand new conditions.
-If the warranter pays, the the said institutions either gone bankrupt or needs a serious bailout.
So whatever they do Putin wins. Got popcorn? :)
Then Wadhington DC orders Turkey to blow anther Russian Fighter Jet out of the air so we can all blame the collapse on World War Three....Whee....
And the Grand Prize is a Nuclear Winter with a consequential Global Extinction. Yeah!!! What a win for Putin...He wins!!!
Frankly I will not miss this place filled with its myopic people.
Orace911 said: "And guess who is the warranter for the said bond bought on the London exchange?"
You clearly imply that 'London' or the 'City of London' guarantees eurobonds issued by Ukraine.
Q: Have any evidence of that?
A: No (cause it ain't true).
This article looks like a ZH fluff piece. Filler on a slow day?
Yes. "Cut the supply line to Syria" literally means, "there's no way to get supplies via sea to Syria."
If Russia had to ship goods via sea, Russia has many alternatives besides the Black Sea. Russia has ports that can ship via the Atlantic or Pacific. Yes, it would take longer, but the fact remains that supplies that require sea transit can make their way to the Mediterranean by routes other than the Bosphorus.
But it's much easier to nuke Turkey and reopen the Bos.
They'll just build more airplanes and fly the shit there in smaller batches. Or break through any very unlikely blockade. How would they do it? Build a wall? Mine the channel? I don't think so. Anyway, Putin doesn't give a shit what Erdogan does now. He's on a roll.
Can't help but feel that Putin has anticipated this.
Should be interesting.
He has. First, there's that Montreaux Convention. Turkey knows breaking the conention is an act of war. Second, see Roberto Carlos, above.
Alex Mercouris has just written a very good article on this subject. http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/actually-russia-winning-syria/ri11503
Does Erdogan know what a suitcase nuke is?
Fuck the suitcase nukes. Erdogan better get updated quick on what an SS-18 Mod4 can do to a city (25 MT). NATO had a cute little codename for that missile series. SATAN.
Silver Rino ?
Shiny silver haze plus white rhino?
Silver Rino ?
Shiny silver haze plus white rhino?
Mathematically, tactical would be a better option to strategic nukes- the immediate neutralization of all major Turkish military facilities would break NATO, because Europe wouldn't have the stomach for MOAR knowing they would be next. However, more likely would be blockade of Turkish ports on the Med, which would shut down ISIS's cash cow, drive up oil prices, and bankrupt the Turkish economy, since without trade, the only thing Turkey would be left with is goat fucking, and the locals might decide to fuck the Erdogan clan.
Technically if Turkey is attacked then the USA is attacked.
Russia, if foolish enough to strike Turkey, will launch a preemptive Strategic First Strike against the USA, concurrently, with attacking Turkey.
This will give the Russians give better Mathematival odds of surviving a USA counterstrike.
And the point is moot because of Nuclear Winter. But the idiots in both Russia and the USA think that Nuclear Wars are winnable so they will do everything that they can to minimize their own damage.
It will be rather quick.
You are wrong. Turkey attacked Russia first and all the defense treaties are null and void.
If you think the US is going to get into a direct war with Russia to protect Turkey then you are delusional.
I already know the Turks are. US diplomats or politiciymight have made promises to Turkey and convinced them to shoot down that Russian plane, but they will never keep those promises.
If you doubt that consult a history book.
The implicit assumption (and big IF in what I wrote) is that if the Russian strategic bombers remain grounded, and satellite and ground based tracking doesn't detect any launches, then the US would not launch because that would invariably trigger a strategic nuclear response from Russia, and thus a global nuclear winter and the end of humanity. Unfortunately, these days the rational actor assumption might be as invalid as the ceteris paribus assumption. Specifically, if Putin believed that the rational actor assumption no longer applied the USA, then he might launch at both the Turkey and the US simultaneously. This was MAD enough before Dubya introduced preemptive war and European missile shields into the calculations after Yeltsin dropped no-first-use, and then Putin went one step further and mirrored NATO's lunatic stance. Thanks for the reminder to check my assumption of Obama's rationality.
Nonsense. The USA have thrown Turkey under the bus. It's game over for that little love-fest.
Can one say... WW3 ?
But then again, maybe Putin already priced in a blockade.
If Turkey is arrogant and stupid enough to try and close the Bosphorus, it'll be war.
By definition, Turkey is allowed to close of Bosporus only in case of war. Kurds, Iran, Syria, Armenia are already sharpening the knives...
You forgot the Greeks.
The only nationality on earth which actually likes the Turks is.... well, never mind.
Maybe Joe Camel?
I can confirm that nobody likes Turks.
Those Turkomen on Turkoman Mountain in N Latakia Governate, they're the Wigurs ... imported from China ... pretending to be rebelling Syrians.
Crimean War II: Electric Boogaloo!
Hopefully Russia can retake Constantinople this time, but given that the same... forces... that stopped them the first time are against them now...
Are we nearing a scenario where the Turkish military takes down this rabid dog ?
best comment yet ... turks can only function as humans under a military government weve seen their democracy
Yeah, but have you seen ours? Democracy? Have you seen our democracy?
Unlikely. Erdogan has long since purged the officer ranks down to full bird level. What's left is political yes men and Islamic stooges.
Hasn't Obama done pretty much the same thing? Purged anyone who should know better that taking on Russia is a fool's errand and could get milions killed.
Now we have r2p trannies and other poofs calling the shots in Obama's multi cultural Armed Services. Same death and destruction but coming from left wing r2p "humanitarian" cover
That is why lot of military could are done by officers with ranks below general.
Won't happen. NATO needs a financially catastrophic committment from Russia for their plan to work.
This is about power. Putin stepping into the Middle East means that the established powers there have to grind it down. It's the nature of things.
Go for it Turkey. Insanity that the USSA and NATO are supporting ISIS and evil Turkey. It would almost be comical if they were not commiting genocide in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen and other places.
Putin and Russia have gotten smarter. They are protecting Syria's borders from ISIS resupply. They are pretty much bombing any resupply trucks. Just shoot down any planes doing resupply or follow them and bomb the supplies.
Oddly these supply trucks seem to have NATO helicopter escorts. It might be good if the Syrias Army (SAA), Hezbollah and Iraqi volunteers (now helping in Syria) just start seizing all this shit. Take the supplies and bomb the oil trucks.
http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/29/natos-terror-convoys-halted-at-syrian-...
Tony Cartilucci expands on this:
Russia’s increased activity along the Syrian-Turkish border signifies the closing phases of the Syrian conflict. With Syrian and Kurdish forces holding the border east of the Euphrates, the Afrin-Jarabulus corridor is the only remaining conduit for supplies bound for terrorists in Syria to pass. Syrian forces have begun pushing east toward the Euphrates from Aleppo, and then will move north to the Syrian-Turkish border near Jarabulus. Approximately 90-100 km west near Afrin, Ad Dana, and Azaz, it appears Russia has begun cutting off terrorist supply lines right at the border. It is likely Syrian forces will arrive and secure this region as well
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/29/natos-terror-convoys-halted-at-syrian-border/
I pray Cartilucci is right in his analysis.
Never underestimate North Korea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FQPQHL32NxY
Infowars says is already happening... but who trusts Infowars?
http://www.infowars.com/turkey-blockades-russian-shipping-black-sea-flee...
When you are the supreme leader you can say all sorts of things
reminds of some Pixar character.
Jonestown's Jewish handlers at STRATFOR trust infowars.
We all have to take our news where we find it. We KNOW the Western MSM isn't to be trusted: the alternative (independent) media is still on probation. Most of the alternative sites didn't lie to us about Saddam's WMDs, or about the collapse of WTC#7, or (now) the US's intimate involvement with ISIS. Are Infowars, Veterans Today, What Really Happened, Antiwar.com, and the rest, reliable news sources or not? Who knows? They can't be much less reliable than the MSM organs.
Your broad statement sort of supporting alternative sources looks like a blanket thrown over InfoWars. I once saw a vid where Jones shows up at a demo in progress. I think anti-war, in Austin? What an ass! A serious attention whore. He just put his bullhorn on 12 and blew the stage away.
But, like dog says, downstream, "I will take INFOWARS any day of the week over CNN or MSNBC."
Putin has said that climate change agenda has been weaponized to shut down any industrialzed nation not hooked to the IMF.
This is big news, God Bless Putin.
http://www.infowars.com/paris-attack-expected-to-make-climate-deal-more-...
I will take INFOWARS any day of the week over CNN or MSNBC.
Also, the dataset from Infowars is from a 3rd party with regards to the Bosphorous traffic.
I have been to Istanbul many, many times. You cannot imagine how busy the lanes are and how small they are. If the Russian ships are being bottled up right now it is for a reason - either the Russians know something no one else does or the Turks have made them PNG from the straits.
Persona Non Grata.
I'd like to see them try
They can if they declare war.
Sure Turkey can do that if they want their entire country to be disappeared.
For how many years we figured it was the closing of the Strait of Hormuz that would light the world up?
Right concept, wrong straight, maybe.
If I was Russia I'd look at Cyprus as a place to F with Erdogan. Lots of possibilities with that card.
Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the Turkish military caps Erdogan and puts a stop to the madness. If they don't, there may not be a Turkey in 10 years...
(Will Istanbul be renamed as Leningrad has been?)
thats so fucking stupid why would russia get involved in cyprus they only get involved in their own backyard and what it rightfuly theirs russians are not morons but try to fuck with the bosphorus and putin will make it much wider than it is...nuclear irrigation
Russia should start f**king with Cyprus and Greece should wake the F up and stop being EU/IMF and NATO serfs.
The USA and Brits have a important listening post on Cyprus.
I would like to see China step up too.
Some time ago a Russian military aircraft made an unusal flight to Cyprus.
On 26 November, an article appeared titled "Su and MiGs in Cyprus will make you wince Ankara". South Cyprus is on good terms with Russia. Turkish North Cyrpus lays claim to gas off the coast of Cyprus. Cyprus is not in NATO, only the EU. Russia and Cyprus could cut a deal for short-term basing rights. Then Turkey's claim to the oil/gas will lose a little of its edge?
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/www.e-news.su/in-world/86578-su-...
Russians should ask South Cyprus if it's OK to put a base in North Cyprus. Answer comes at once, shrug, that area belongs to us but is not under our control do what you like. Turkey screams blue murder but nobody else recognises their illegal occupation so who cares.
"Will Istanbul be renamed as Leningrad has been?"
The Russians will name it back as Constantinople, its pre-islamic name.
And, they will gut the grand mosque, take the plaster off the walls to reveal the 1,000 year old icons of the Cathedral St. Sophia.
The Russians would LOVE to do that.
Squid
I am an atheist and I would love that as well.
Orthodox here with an upvote for you.
Likely any day now we'll read about that Erdogan cap. He's murdered way too many not to have a revenge motive from some victims family. (never mind destroying the country)
Is there a crowd funding site for contributions to the hit contract?
Constantinople, not Instanbul...
Byzantium
Yes Constantine was the insufferable prick who codified the legislation that brought millennia of serfdom to the West and also that Roman invented branch of Judaism (Flavian Christianity) an even greater blight...no memorials for that scumbag.
You are right. I have been saying Constantinople but in reality the name Byzantium precedes it.
II will that my references to it from now on.
Adding two weeks travel time? Fuel is cheap, shipping is cheap. I don't think Putin gives a fuck.
Turkey will do whatever it's Master, the USA, says.
Turkey will do whatever it's Master, the USA, says
Well, that's just it. Turkey stopped listening to its NATO handlers. This is why two months ago they lost the patriot missiles that were based in Turkey's southeastern province of Gaziantep. Erdogan didn't suddenly go rogue. This has been an ongoing problem for at least the past two years.
No doubt that Erdogan panicked and was trying to provoke Russia into some sort of military response so Turkey could have some street cred when crying to NATO. Well, it didn't work.
Erdogan was just offered a decent-sized bribe from the EU to "facilitate" the refugee problem, whatever the f that means. But once he takes that money (and you know that he will since his oil/drug/arms trafficking money is drying up) and when he then doesn't perform, then he will have a bunch of whining Euocrats on his ass as well. They will no doubt double down on their election monitoring. At that point, he's on his way to the political graveyard.
The way I see it, Erdogan now appears to be a strong contender for this year's Saakashvili award. Once the Turkish people wash their hands of Erdogan he should be on his way to the US.
Within the next two years, Erdogan should have a teaching gig in Missouri or Texas. Then he'll be rotated to Ukraine where he can instruct the Ukrainians on official corruption.
It's like an reverse James Bond movie. In the movies they smuggle Bond across borders to fight evil criminals. Except now the US smuggles the greedy vassal-state tyrants into the US.
Terriific post. "The way I see it, Erdogan now appears to be a strong contender for this year's Saakashvili award." Maybe the SA could compete with the now laughable Nobel.
Backing nations into corners is always a good strategy. MIC is itching for another war.
Turkey downing the Russian bomber was an act of complete barbarism. Nobody can seriously maintain that Russian forces ever intended any harm to the Turks, even if they did cross into Turkish airspace by the narrowest of margins (which is hardly established in any case). If Turkey does anything else to provoke Russia at this point, they will find themselves in a world of hurt. Just who is going to enforce Erdogan's hypothetical order to close the Bosphorus to Russian military traffic?
I was wondering what the Israeli announcement that a Russian plane flew over Israel by accident and that they didn't consider it a problem. That was obviously a jab at Turkey.
That was the first thing to come out of Israel in a long, long time. Pretty much since the Israelis flew to Moscow prior to Russian operations beginning in Syria.
The return of the Ottoman Empire severely hampers the goal of Greater Israel. I expect both Turkey and Saudi Arabia to be thrown under the bus by Western powers some time in the next few years; so completely have they been set up.
An ottoman is a peace of furniture where you put your feet on after a good meal of turkey.
What Israel REALLY REALLY REALLY doesn't want is Russian and Iranian ground troops moving towards the Golan Heights, particularly with Russian air support. Bibi may be a psychopath, but he's not a stupid psychopath and Russia certainly has both the capacity and standing to administer the Syrian territory that Bibi is busy floating trial balloons for recognition of Israeli sovereignty over.
I'm not an International Law expert, but if the closing of Bosphorus is illegal, then Russian naval ships have the option to run a blockade and force any impeding ship to move or be boarded or sunk.
After that, we're off to the races. The legal technicality is, if Russia uses force to assert its legal rights, whether Turkey can still claim the right to have NATO defend it. The salivating US Ziocons aside, I cannot imagine that the EU vassal states would be keen to bleed for terrorist-supporting Turkey and its crime-boss Erdogan.
Turkey has to be a belligerent actor in a declared war to close the strait.
I would be completely shocked if NATO lets them do that.
Blindmonkey
Show me one NATO member who has the balls to want to go up against Rusia for Turkey's closing of the Bosporus? A lot of other traffic goes through there. Maybe the Chinese would love to step in with a "grain shipment" being stopped and thus Turkey is starving China.
Off the track; Why does Germany get a second Nord Stream pipeline while no one else can? Bulgaria might just say bring it on and by-pass Turkey and everyone else. Austria/ Hungary are pretty pissed at the refugee situation created by Germany (Merkel) as is most of eastern europe. If the new Asian bank would help finance the South Stream pipeline along with Silk Road promises, the USSA is in for a world of hurt. Times are a changing as to the strength of the EUs power.
In the case of war, only naval ships are stopped, merchant ships would expect to be allowed through.
A total stop is quite easy to engineer. A large ship breaks down across the, pretty narrow in parts, channel and drifts at 90 degrees to the traffic, the Turks 'struggle' to sort it for a few weeks due to 'incompetence'. The Straits have to be closed for safety reasons.
No, they do not.
They did not need "legal" to shoot down Russia's jet. Someone (US/Massod) did not need "legal" to take down Putin's airliner.
If "terrorist" fire on Russian ships as they attempt to move through the narrow parts there is nothing Russia can do officially. They cannot fly planes or land military to secure their passage.
Russia can then do more sanctions on Turkey but cannot openly attack or would become open to direct NATO actions (outside of Russia). Russia could do covert attacks back on Turkey.
Disagreement over a crude oil pipeline turned the Syrian conflicty into a proxy war between the Saudi Arabia and Russia, forcing millions to flee towards Europe.
Oil prices and the Syrian civil war By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2015/10/14
Most watch in disbelief as hordes of Middle Eastern migrants enter Europe with little to no resistance from border control. Whereas refugees are normally women and children, these migrants are for the most part young males of fighting age leaving a war zone. That prompts concerns on their true motives.
Europe is divided regarding its course of action against this flood of migrant resulting in inaction; meanwhile the flow intensifies: at the beginning of October 2015 the flow has increased to over 10,000 new migrants daily in Germany. Today we will explain how an armed conflict over a gas pipeline triggered this mass migration and considering the geopolitical consequences, forecast where oil prices will go from here.
The Heir to the Throne
In 1994, an unassuming eye doctor in London got a call to tell him that his brother had died unexpectedly in a car crash and that he had to move back in with his parents. Why? His father was Hafez al-Assad, the internationally reviled dictator of Syria, and our humble eye doctor was now commanded to prepare for his new inheritance - the Presidency of Syria.
Bashar al-Assad became president upon his father's death in 2000. He married the charming British-born Asma Akhras in December. Hafez al-Assad's foreign policy had been against the Western powers, which he resented for the colonial occupation of his country, and pro-Soviet Russia, which had sent military assistance and arms to Syria. The Western-leaning young couple worked to thaw relations with the developed world.
The Assads were invited to the capitals of Europe and forged friendly contacts with world leaders. By 2010, with the ruins of Saddam Hussein's regime smoldering in Iraq and a peace deal signed in Palestine, suddenly the path was clear from oil and gas producers in the Middle East, all the way to Europe. There remained just one last country to bring onside in order to get oil and gas piped through to a high demand region. That country was Syria.
Once Upon a Pipeline
As oil-price.net reported back in 2012, Qatar needed to get its Qatar-Turkey" pipeline through Syria, and Europe looked forward to linking up with the world's largest gas producer because it was over-dependent on Russian supplies. Russia's unstable president Vladimir Putin had previously cut off gas supplies to Europe in the dead of winter 2009 after a dispute with Ukraine over gas royalties. The Russian military has since invaded Ukraine and given Putin's aggressive stance, Europe now urgently needs to find an alternate gas supply not controlled by Russia. This makes a middle-eastern pipeline coming through Syria a very attractive proposition.
The Assads soon realized that they were in a position of power. They decided to up the ante by creating an alternative source of fuel for a trans-Syrian pipeline. Most of the countries in the Middle East, including Syria are majority Sunni Muslim. The post-Hussein regime in Iraq was dominated by Shia Muslims, The Assads are Alawite Muslims - a Shia creed that the Sunnis from Qatar and Saudi Arabia would like to see wiped off the earth. So instead of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, Assad stitched together a deal with the Shia administration in Iraq, together with Iraq's other neighbor, Iran - the largest Shia nation in the world. The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline project was born.
Map of Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline and Qatar-Turkey pipeline
Syria's economy was underdeveloped and the Assads needed oil money to keep their people placated. Their alternative pipeline plan would carry Iran and Iraq's gas to Europe, instead of gas from Qatar, and that option pleased Russia's Putin, because he already had long standing agreements in place with Iran, who were more amenable to gas price coordination with Russia. Moreover, as a long-term supporter of Syria, Russia had built up influence within the administration and the armed forces. Also Russia's only military base in the Mediterranean is located on the coast of Syria which would strategically allow Putin to control a second gas pipeline to Europe. Naturally this Iranian pipeline to Syria quickly became a top priority for Moscow. Assad and the Russians worked their contacts to dissuade the Qatar deal and promote the Iranian plan. Bashar and Asma thought they had forced Europe and the Gulf States to up their offer. Instead, they had made some very dangerous enemies.
Saudis need Assad overthrown
Saudi diplomatic efforts and generous contracts to US and UK arms manufacturers gave the Kingdom an unwritten call on the military of Western powers to fight its war for it. And so the Saudi king merely needed to lift a finger for President Obama and Britain's Prime Minister Cameron to schedule air strikes against Syria in an effort to overthrow Assad. At the end of August 2013, however, the British parliament voted against the action. That put pressure on the US president who calculated that Congress would follow suit and block any attack on Syria as well. Russia raised the stakes by moving warships into the Mediterranean, ready to defend Syria. Saudi Arabia's friends backed down, and the Saudi king resolved to solve the problem of Syria himself.
As Iran is liberated from US-imposed embargo, two power blocks have emerged in the Middle East - Iran, Iraq and Syria, which are all Shia-led, and the rest of the Arab world, which is Sunni and stands against the Shia. While America holds the alliance of the Sunni world, Russia is siding with the Shia-controlled nations.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar's first move was to fund the Muslim Brotherhood, which intended to impose Sunni control on all Middle Eastern countries. The Saudis persuaded the United States to endorse this policy and western media put a marketing spin on the rebellions of these Muslim fundamentalists, by dubbing their power grab "the Arab Spring". Once the Brotherhood's intolerance started to emerge in power, the US backed out and the Saudis tried a different tack.
The Saudis had another trick up their sleeve. Not only did the US refuse to overthrow Assad, but they then opened negotiations to loosen the oil embargo on Iran. The prospects of Iran coming back to the international oil market would heighten the growing over-supply of crude oil. Usually in these situations, OPEC was expected to cut its production to reduce oversupply in the oil market and make oil production profitable for all the other countries in the world. Saudi production quotas so exceed those of all the other OPEC nations that no production cut would be meaningful if the Saudis refused to cooperate.
The Saudis came up with a new strategy that would punish Russia for their intervention in Syria, stall Iran from retooling its oil industry and cripple America's fracking production. They increased oil production and aggressively offered low oil prices to grab market share. The oil price fall conveniently stymied all the parties involved in keeping Assad in power.
Proxy War in Syria
Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been heavily involved with fostering and funding Sunni Muslim insurgent groups in Iraq and Syria, including the much-publicized ISIS. Disaffected and experienced Sunni administrators and soldiers in Iraq poured into ISIS, who offered them wages and self-respect.
ISIS are funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar donors, but not controlled by them. Their leaders found it easy to quickly grab the Sunni dominated areas of Iraq and Syria, aided by the downtrodden locals. However, they have shown an ambivalent attitude in their administration. The leaders of national branches of ISIS seek income opportunities to enable them to advance ahead of rival branch leaders and gain policy independence from Saudi Arabia. In northern Iraq, they run the oil refineries they take over to make a profit. In Libya, they destroy them as offenses to God. The Libyan branch of ISIS prefers the easy money of people smuggling. Established smuggling routes also serve the long-term strategic ambition to project fighters worldwide.
ISIS-lead upheavals in Syria create a crisis that refugees are fleeing from, the ISIS-lead smuggling operations in Libya offer those refugees a route into Europe.
Labor Shortages
It is no coincidence that Germany suddenly decided to offer very generous welfare rewards to any illegal immigrant who can make it over the Mediterranean from the Libyan coast to Italian islands. Germany needs guest worker labor from poorer countries in order to keep its manufacturers competitive.
Germany's ability to continue exporting in the face of a high wage economy is hailed by their government as a tribute to the German education system. In truth, behind the scenes, the German government knows very well that their low wage, high output economy is a tribute to the Turkish education system. Despite objections from the general public, the German government has allowed unrestricted migration from Turkey since the 1980s. The low wage ambitions of migrant Turkish factory workers undercut the negotiating powers of German trade unions. German workers had to keep their wage demands low to keep their jobs from being handed over to Turkish unskilled labor.
But the economic emergence of Turkey in recent years caused the flow of cheap labor to Germany to dry up. Now the German government finds itself scrambling for more migrant labor to stave off inflationary pressures.
Divided Europe
The new German policy of serving its own interests, in hindsight can be seen as a long-term movement from the country's hope for European harmony, to its hegemony of the continent. The Schengen Agreement removed all border controls between EU member states. This was a step towards Germany's original goal of merging itself into a wider country. However, the downside of borderless Europe is that any illegal migrant who can make it into Italy, Greece or Spain then has the whole of the EU to roam across unhindered. Germany turned that weakness to its advantage in its endeavor to source cheap labor. Their siren call to the downtrodden of the Muslim world has seen the countries of southern and eastern Europe overrun by ambitious economic migrants. Germany received twice as many asylum applications in 2014 than Turkey did.
Towards the end of August 2015, Germany made matters worse by declaring that they would accept all refugees arriving from Syria. Unsurprisingly, the number of asylum seekers crowding into dinghies on the Libyan coast surged. The number that claimed to be Syrian went through the roof. By September, German officials estimated that 20 per cent of migrants arriving in that country are from Syria. The large majority is from other countries such as Sudan, Somalia and Afghanistan.
The German call for cheap labor worked well - too well. In 2014, 173,000 migrants applied for asylum. German officials estimate that this year, that number will be between 800,000 and 1 million. Their success has convinced many to follow suit - an estimated 20 to 30 millions are now considering migrating from the middle east to benefit from Europe's welfare system.
Although the German government wants a lot of migrants, its neighbors plagued with double-digit unemployment don't and European countries started re-imposing border controls. The Europhile dream of a borderless continent was trampled underfoot by Germany's grab for cheap labor.
In fact there is already ample statistical evidence that this "welfare migration" has significantly hurt European economies. In the Netherlands, 70% of Somalis live on welfare versus just 3 per cent for the native Dutch and 2 per cent for Polish migrants. According to Norway's Central Bureau of statistics, each non-European immigrant costs $660,000 over his lifetime.
Britain's experience echoes the continental figures. Over the last 17 years Britain has spent $180 billion on immigrants from outside the EU, namely on welfare, while foreign workers from within the EU contributed $6.6 billion to the British economy.
There is also an increased risk of terrorism - ISIS fighters are among migrants. According to Mike MCCaul, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, "From a national security standpoint, I take ISIS at its word when they said, in their own words, 'We'll use and exploit the refugee crisis to infiltrate the West.' That concerns me." According to Lebanese officials, 2.2 per cent of Syrians crowding refugee camps are affiliated with ISIS. In other words, of the 10,000 migrants arriving in Germany daily, 220 are war-hardened ISIS fighters - though many others have comparable affiliations.
Germany's neighbors were not the only ones complaining about the policy of attracting unfiltered migrants - the German electorate rose up in protest in the face of this unprecedented geopolitical risk.
History repeats itself
A similar geopolitical situation unfolded in Lebanon 40 years ago. Back in the 60s and early 70s, Lebanon was a very westernized and dynamic center of regional trade. It was a former colony of France with a strong Christian presence dating back to the crusades. Beirut was often compared to Switzerland or Hong Kong and earned the nickname of "the Monaco of the Middle East".
At that time, nearby Jordan was housing 400,000 Palestinian refugees from the war with Israel. These refugees, embittered by their experience, turned fundamentalists. Their allegiance to the PLO was increasingly problematic so the King of Jordan evicted them. Homeless, and penniless Palestinians headed for prosperous Lebanon. Insisting on maintaining their traditional values, they created "a state within a state" under Sharia law against Lebanon's secular democratic model. Tensions increased as native Christians were soon outnumbered by Muslims and in 1975 a fully-fledged civil war broke out where countless were killed.
Today no-one would seriously compare Lebanon to Switzerland as they once did. We should remember three key facts, though. First, it took 400,000 refugees to destabilize of a westernized country of 2.6 million, or a ratio of roughly 1 to 7. Second, is that Lebanese leftists perceived the war as a "class struggle" (the poor against the rich) so they fought alongside Muslim fundamentalists against Christians during the Lebanese civil war. Finally, demands for welfare and the draining expense of expanding an army, frittered away Lebanon's wealth as all commerce stopped and the tax base disappeared
Domino Effect
The German government has found itself a clever formula. It has agreed to let in more than a million migrants this year, but it hasn't agreed to let them stay. This wordplay around the status of their visitors gives Angela Merkel a sufficient glow of piety to put her in pole position for the Nobel Peace Prize this year, but doesn't actually commit them to grant passports to anyone.
Germany has implemented a nine month selection window to keep the brightest migrants, who will plug their labor shortage. That's right, keep the best, reject the rest, but what will happen to those who cannot assimilate to a western society and are rejected? They can't be sent back to a war zone, and they can't remain in Germany. The borderless Schengen area provides the solution. In fact Germany is already laying plans for where to send its rejects. They forced through an EU ruling in late September which obliges other EU countries to take a percentage of refugees off their hands.
Some European leaders have been able to spot Germany's tactics and have already cried foul. The ensuing name calling and outright venom that flew between Berlin and Budapest, seat of the leader of the no-voting block's leader, Viktor Orban, shows cracks appearing in European unity.
Economic need may force the refugees to move on. Cut off from the much advertised generous state benefits in Germany, they will merely up sticks and mob over the borders to Austria, Poland, France and the Netherland in search of more handouts. As they link up with leftist radicals and religious extremists of those countries, a Lebanon style rebellion could develop.
While Germany, with 81 million people may be able control 1 million migrants (albeit not easily), it would spell doom for its smaller and vulnerable European neighbors, namely Denmark, Finland, Slovakia and Norway - each with 5 million inhabitants - much like it did in Lebanon 40 years ago.
There will be a "domino-effect" among European nations re-introducing pre-EU strong border controls, as Hungary has already done. This will significantly reduce trade between EU countries. Fewer trucks on the road mean less energy consumption, less commerce and lower tax revenues, higher deficits and a weakening Euro.
When the populations of Germany's neighboring countries get let in on Berlin's refugee filtering trick, the anger and mistrust between European nations that has been repressed for the last 25 years will resurface and may split the EU apart. Europe's competitive advantages will ebb away. We can expect that some strategic industries - those who can - flee Europe's geopolitical risk. Coincidently, Airbus SA recently announced its plan to relocate production of the upcoming A320 airplane to Mobile, Alabama USA instead of France. Going forward Europe's image will suffer irreparable loss while North America and Asia will remain stable and open for business.
Unintended Consequences
Oil-price.net has a long track record of successfully forecasting geopolitical risks tied to petroleum. In 2012 we predicted that armed militias would seize oil fields in Sudan, Libya and Nigeria and warned of the potential disaster that factions can cause in that region. The unintended consequences of the US invasion of Iraq switched the dominant religion in that country and created a Shia corridor from the heart of Afghanistan through to the Eastern Mediterranean coast; and made Saudi Arabia feel threatened.
The Saudi and Qatar plan to switch the Syrian government from Shia to Sunni promised the reward of a clear Sunni corridor from the gulf to the frontier of the European Union. However, their methods of achieving that goal drove Syria to plan a pipeline benefiting Iran and unleashed the chaos of extremist control of large areas of Iraq, Syria and Libya.
An unintended consequence of Europe's support for a Qatar-Syria gas pipeline free of Russian influence was the migrant crisis currently flooding Europe. The German government's idea to exploit the overwhelming tide of asylum seekers to gain cheap labor backfired into the de-unification of Europe.
The blowback caused by Saudi policy over the past few years extends beyond the Middle East, and it still hasn't played itself out.
The King of Oil and the Emperor of Gas
The Saudis intended to cripple Russia, Iran and US frackers through lower oil prices. However, all of those countries have joined the Saudis in increasing production since the price of oil started to fall in 2014.
If anyone is going to blink first, it won't be the USA, where some frackers have reduced their production costs from $70 per barrel to $20 per barrel.
Vladimir Putin based his entire political strategy on the exploitation of oil and gas, both as an income generator, and as a weapon against his perceived enemies. Russia's long term answer to the Saudi punch of lower oil prices had been in the making since Putin scared off the USA and the UK from bombing Syria. He didn't move his battleship to the Syrian coast as a gesture. He set himself up as the military overlord of Syria and took control of the one access point common to both the Iranian and Qatari pipelines.
The sudden revelation of the extent of Russia's involvement in Syria hit newsstands in early October 2015 when the Russian air force started bombing rebels in Syria. With international law on its side, Russia is defending the legitimate Syrian government against Saudi-backed terrorists.
Putin needs the income that his oil industry brings his government. The oil price drop and the Western sanctions against Russia hurt. His favorite industry, however, is gas. Russia controls 70 per cent of gas supplies to Europe and that brings him political advantages, as well as the ability to set falsely high gas prices. Europe's resolve to block trade with Russia will soon weaken during the freezing winter. With no hope of a pipeline bringing Middle Eastern gas through Syria, German-lead Europe will be easier to deal with. Russia is well placed to become Iran's new best friend. Putin is sitting pretty.
The Saudi Endgame
Saudi Arabia itself has a belligerent population and its government keeps the lid on dissent by being very generous with sweeteners for its people. Those subsidies are expensive and now that they are selling oil near cost price, the Saudi government is drawing down its saving.
The Saudis are running out of money and Western governments are starting to realize that they would rather Assad survived in office to help them fight the Saudi-funded ISIS. The comfortable relationship between the governments of Saudi Arabia and the USA seems to have broken down. A growing awareness among the populations of the West that Saudi Arabia funds terrorist organizations makes it harder for those democratic governments to make moves to support the Saudi King. So, Saudi Arabia is losing its big military ally, while Iran, Iraq and Syria become more closely involved with Russia.
Low oil prices have become the new normal. The only way they will ever change is if a large amount of world oil output gets knocked out. It turns out this may be in the cards.
In booting ISIS out of Syria, Russian military planners most certainly will use a strategy called "funneling". Quite simply, with the assistance of allied Iran to the east, Russia will attack ISIS troops anywhere but south, forcing a retreat in that direction, thus "funneling" ISIS fighter south into rival Saudi Arabia. ISIS may find grassroot support within the kingdom and their natural target will first be -as always- oil fields. The resulting shortfall in oil and gas production will enable Russia and Iran to incease military spending and extend their strategical influence on the region, much like the US did.
An unintended consequence of the Saudi attempts to overthrow the government of Syria, may be the overthrow of the government of Saudi Arabia with its own medicine. Should ISIS be pushed into Saudi Arabia, expect oil prices to surge.
stopped reading at forcing millions to flee towards Europe.
This is probably one of the most realistic analyses I've seen for the situation.
With the fall of the Saudi regime, so goes the US dollar, the US military machine and the end of the American Empire.
dupe
I stopped reading after Russia invaded Ukraine and stopped gas shipments to Europe.
Whoever this writer is the bias displayed made me discount everything he has written.
Well I would just like to see a scenario where Putin sends the entire Black sea fleet to Bosphorus including the nuclear submarines. Would Erdogan or Nato have the audacity to fire at a sitting duck that can spew a few thousand missiles (s300s and S400s included on the ships) in Turkey's most important corridor. When talking about Bosphorus one needs to know that this is where a quarter of Turkish population lives from Istanbul on Bosphorus to Galipoli and sea of Marmara in between with Bursa in centre. Do you even want to hit a nuclear submarine there? Also this passage is a vital EU corridor where the goods are transported between Meditaranean (most of it Suez destined/originating goods) and northern EU via Danube-Rhyne-Maine channel system.
Closing the Bosphorus in a any manner just calls for a great conflict.
the turk is one dumb fuck but not that dumb, the russians would be at the gate with the biggest nuclear arsenal. the turk is now begging for a face to face with putin.
Russia is just showing how much of a bit player they are on the world stage. Not even a regional power.
It's comical.
I remember the monkey called Russia a "regional power". And later he told "this is not some chess game between the two superpowers".
Monkey screech when scared.
dup.
No worries mate. Your comment was stupid as fuck the first time. A second go wouldn't change anything.
Russia can get everything it needs now from China. It's the Turks who will end up starving, rioting, and then mass mgrating into Europe...where they will be delth with harshly.
Maybe so but so the hell wants to eat food from China????
If you live in big city go get drunk party hardy. If you live in sticks go gets some iodine
Close Bosphorus?
That would be a textbook example of a phyrric victory.
Not happening!
same fucking shit. while you are all too busy tripping all over yourselves to suck putin off, look at the fucking chart - russia exports more to turkey than it actually imports. so, not exporting shit to turkey means sucking major dick. throw in close to 5 billion usd worth of real estate that russians bought in turkey during the past friendly years and which is now stuck in putin's ass and the question of who is shooting who in the foot is becoming quite amusing.
oh, one more thing - turkey was the only county that openly did not give a fuck about sanctions and had full ferry service with butt fucking crimea, including bringing in food supplies and other petty shit. guess what, they just told turks to go fuck themselves. very smart. i have a feeling that putin truly thinks that he is a genius and everybody else is a peasant. well, one day his star will stop shining too...i see some putin lovers are already starting to downvote me, not surprised. but what would russian middle class do with thier appartments, villas and swimming pools that they bought in turkey? i guess in the name of a glorious motherland you can just forget about your personal shit. where did i hear that before?
agian, russians are depending big time on shipping shit to turkey, more than turkey depends on russians. putin is currently in piss contest with every neigbour, exluding china and russia is not russian empire or soviet union, they don't have half of the shit they used to have.
Hey Deez, Would you buy property in Turkey? A muslim nation.? A mafia type Government? These things are more important than a nice view. Turkey ? Location, Location, Location. Turkey. Though likely a nice view over the Bosporus.
no shit? location you sez?
peep dis shit out: http://www.antalyahomes.com/is-buying-property-in-turkey-a-good-investme...
How reliable is the gas supply?
Are the Turks WILLING TO RETURN the properties back to the original Owners to that of the Armenians and Greeks from the FORCED appropriation in the past? There are still DESERTED VILLAGES IN THE WEST COAST OF ASIA MINOR, that belonged to the Greeks. and Armenians and Greeks in the EAST ( North Anatolia).
Old Native American saying: When the heat is on chiefs, it's their tribe members that get burnt.
The Russians currently have the technology to disable most western communications and electronic devices. It appears to be some sort of EMF device. They seem to have the capability to shut down offensive aircraft. The Russians have also deployed anti-air missile systems in Syria that cannot be countered by the West. They've also sent in their new fighters to accompany fighter bombers. Those fighters outfly everything the west currently has. The Russians can do as they like. If Erdogan tries any further shenanigans expect his dick to get chopped off immediately.
I'm very impressed with Putin. He has been perfectly restrained throughout these last few years.
yo, russian airbase is 20 kms from turkish border. nobody is planning to fly and bomb that brothel. they can just send in cavalry or just throw rocks with catapults and it will be good enough to stop this nonsense. putin is fucking with wrong people in the wrong part of the world. and glorious mosvka ship that they sent in is 36 years old. this piece of shit is a floating turd with too much soviet pride attached to it.
Can you please just shut the fuck up and die. Nobody wants to hear your retarded ramblings. Seriously, get lost.
That seems to be the case. The technology in question has the U.S. and Israel shitting bricks. The shoot down of the SU-24 was most likely an attempt to flush the tech out into the open, so that U.S./Israel could get a handle on it. The Russians will be using their S 400's and fighters for air cover for now, which are more than adequate, and save the magik stuff for the big show.
>>>I'm very impressed with Putin.
Putin is thinking of what Russia may be facing five, twenty or a hundred years from now.
Obama is looking forward to a few decades of post-White House golf and anal sex.
For Turkey to close the the Bosphorus Strait would be a act of war. When such action is taken we can assume NATO has approved moving from cold economic, propaganda, etc war, to a hot war with Russia.
It would also be a clear and unambigous admission of siding with IS. If NATO backs this, than NATO would be harboring terrorists. Even MSM can't spin such clear cut situation especially after months of demonization of IS. They are currently sold as evil incarnate, Russians clearly combat them at this very moment and supply their operation by this strait... there's no way to explain this away.
Ok, so......
Russia would not allow the Crimea, its Russian Naval base on the Black sea for the past 300 years, to fall into the hands of some Jewish backed Neo Nazi government in Kiev but it will allow the Bosphorus strait to be closed?
And how will China see this? Lets see....
-The Bosphorus is an international water way,
-Closing the Bosphorus to international sea traffic is an act of piracy, or war, or maybe both,
-China claims almost the whole of the South China sea as her own,
-China watches as America's stooge, Turkey, closes an international water way to only Russian traffic,
-Perhaps China can close the South China sea to Japanese, Canadian and American traffic as well....no? Perhaps toss in Kiwi and Aussie traffic as well?
What's good for the goose if good for the gander?
The Turkish military better move Erdogan off to bigger and better things else they won't have a country anymore, secular or otherwise.
Squid
This won't go any further.
Right now the kenyan nigger and most of the Nato heads are telling Turkey to lock up their rabid dog. Turkey is already on the verge of a civil war themsleves.
Russia will help the kurds and armenians create a little terrorism of their own. Erdogan is done in politics.
Lots of silly talk here. Erdogan is just another US puppet who is allowed to skim the till in exchange for doing what the US tells him to. Turkey has the 2nd biggest military force in NATO and the US would not entrust that kind of power to an egotistical flake like him, any more then they would let the narcissist Obama decide anything.
I will bet $1,000 he was not involved in the Russian plane shoot down and was still in bed when it happened. The final order would have come from the US General responsible for the area,
possible. they needed to kick putin's ass somehow and remind him that he is not the only dick in coalmine. after all, how many nato fighters or bombers were intercepted over russia or within russian border in the past, say five years? NONE. russians are fucking with baltic countries constantly. one day they had to pay for arrogance.
That's what fools don't grasp. Putin has made a lot of enemies, and he's no hero to anybody but those who overlook him being a rehashed thug from the Soviet era. Life is so screwed-up in Russia now that they miss the bad old days.
come again?
Ahem lads - some rational thought and a little quid-pro-quo, please.
Russia allowed the US to use their airspace for military purposes for years during the war in Afghanistan, because they were supposedly both against a common enemy, the Taliban.
In Syria they are both supposedly fighting a common enemy, ISIS. Why would NATO not allow Russia a minor encroachment into Turkish airspace to accomplish that mission.
I say "supposedly" because it has become increasingly obvious that the US and their allies are supporting a war with terror in Syria, not a war on terror.
I was under the assumption that you understood this was about toppling the Assad regime and Russia is in the way. They are an obstruction to be removed.
How is this not obvious?
LOL - right. The US has tried for 4 years to topple Assad and has only succeeded in fucking the place up. As usual. Drag your sorry incompetent asses back home and let someone else have a go at bringing stability.
The destruction of Syria is part of the plan and it has largely been a success so far. And Putin is to be thanked for that as he sat back and did not enter the conflict with ISIS until Syria was so depleted that they could be made a Russian puppet. (And Putin has refused to provide the S300 to Syria which would have forced NATO to cease their air attacks.)
I certainly concur that the US and Gulf Arabs are waging a cynical, ruthless proxy war with Islamic wackos against the dictator Assad.
Yet facts are facts. The wackos were hammering on the gates of Damascus and the Assad forces were deserting in droves and changing sides en masse.
This is what prompted the direct intervention of Putin in the region.
However fucked up the place was getting with a superpower dabbling its toes in the water, having Russia and the West banging away at each others' forces in a more serious manner is only going to fuck it up worse for the poor people caught in the middle of the Great Game of Empire.
Personally, now that the fat is in the fire, I would like to see an outcome that rids the Syrian people of the need to live as obedient slaves to the dictator or as obedient slaves to the wackos, or to be the subjects (through a puppet ruler) of either a western or eastern empire that covets their land for purposes of their own.
An obstruction eh?
You must be cheering for a caliphate?
NATO/USA and all of its circus clubs are not playing fair when it came to Russia,Iran and china, specially Russia this bad times.
It shame on USA, not fair.If they let Russia to clean sorya from thos mercinery vampires it would have been got us some peace for a while.
But they can't, can they how could they allow it ? They have been buesy at least for the past 20 years doing this great project of distablizing the middle east,arabs and take what ever they can while humans got killed,suffered,displaced etc
This dangerous group are a cancer for the earth,their dream is always at the cost of humanity, they think they can strech the great israel including syria, UAE all through Egipt,.well can't they? it seems via their puppet cripto jews like Erdogan, and saudi kings have already infiltrated thos poor countries.
Now to protect their ajenda they are pulling every string aginst who ever oppose and stand on it.Poor sorya how one country turned into ruins becouse of this narcosis group.People whther you realiz it or not its not just economic battle or geopoletical isssue that waging there.
It is also spritual for all mankind.All posts here i see looks enjoing the sope like a movie saga.please this is war not movie.We should include GOD in the equation. What do you think all this is happening? Becuse humans are forgetting God almighty.We are being shaken from our sleep more than ever.But what is the odds we see things at face value or try to intelectualize everyrything by this liittlle knowledge of ours gaind probably in ours adult age. Sad.
Me too resort to enjoy this war development.I am convinced this is a war for huamity,the devil is @work busy to escalet stuff already on fire.Pray GOD to strengthen those who are opposing and delaying that war WWIII Rusia,Sorya,Iran and others.I think GOD is using them to challenge this cults group to show them it is not easy the way they are doing stuff.They are thinking they are god....
Well this man called Erdogan,what is he thinking? '$100million $$$$$$ BIllion .Now Germeny even gave them 3.2Billion Ero? what? yea for soryian refugee to be hold @ turkey is what we told. who knows what is behind it, time will tell.But shame after only causing syryian to destablize funding ISIS, stling their oil Turky now is acting humaniterian is B.S at its core. Its business for them..any turky citizen do have something to say is now the time.your so called 'Leaders" fucking assholes have been carring attackes even to you last time at rally we have seen sucide bombers who might have been ISIS or PKK bs blast you so that you w'd be scared and shit out off you and elect this criminals.
Thanks to mainstream fear mongoring news we heard it.Fuck i am board with Hooliwood movies now.why w'd i see them becus RT,PressTV and the like alternative medi have brought me all the conspiracy news to my HD television.I don't wanna see CNN of doctor gubta show .., ABC,MBC,CBS BBC FRANCE24 bullshit show on my HD.ZH is also becoming my fevorite as long as they are not convict me at whatever i expressed.Everybody have intitled to write what they feel without worring about 'Poletical Correctness" Sounds smart.CNN BBC and z like they cann't afford telling the truth or their budget got cut and reporters lay off.PRESSTV RT and z like they don't have the time for bullshit so far succeeded on exposing tip of the iceburg pilling over the time.
BTW i wanna smoke that stuff the "alah wakber" suiciders take b4 they rush in to blasting themselves.It must show them a 7 bueatiful wives and seven mansions reward or better.Somebody w'd tell me what it is like.And BTW you MUSLIM friend all over the world including my friends@home have been instumental for shitty jobs in history.Blast me too, Boooom but first you gotta give me that smoke (kidding).
@Turky guys i know that you were pure christians back in days and you have great churches now @ Istanbul the big church called Hageya Sofy tuned to Mosk and musium. Why ? The agonizing horror must taunted you, all the masaccer occured turnin you in to muslims... Remember,muslim christians all of you m fuckers, the game is played at us all humnity and we are not getting it.We will be told we have been playing on our souls on the other side.By the time we know this,too late.The Referri has wistled "GAME OVER"
Turkish bueatiful human beings,let the world know who you are, only the officials are making you bad.
Initially he said though that he had given the order to shoot down himself. But he seemed to have said that just to brag for a minute.
Let's face it: few ZHers have enough solid inside information to know who's planning what, either short or long-term.
I've seen decent arguments made that Iran, Syria, Iraq and Russia are going to push for an independent Kurdistan, giving Turkey a major kick down the ladder of regional power. Then I ran into a knowledgeable-sounding article at The Saker, arguing that the USA and Israel were going to promote an independant Kurdistan as part of their scheme for regional hegemony.
I do have a feeling that those who actually know such things aren't talking.
August, while I mostly agree, there is also a lot of open information that is just not being processed, and literally swamped with trivial, old stuff
what France is doing, for example. like... partnering with Russia, with assistance from Germany, in regard to Syria
cue in Obama's face when Hollande met him to give him the news, and cue in Putin and Hollande's faces when they met later in Moscow
meanwhile, Israel is really, really mad at the EU for a product labeling issue
Funny that I haven't seen any of the local Zio trolls complaining about the product labeling issue, or even the Neo Nazis bragging about it (perhaps they can't reconcile that action with their view of the EUSSR). Israel suspended diplomatic contact with the EU, and the peanut gallery continues its collective march towards idiocrisy... Meanwhile in America's arctic colonies, the brainwashed are being told that a grand coalition comprising ONLY the USSA, and its colonies of Canada, Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Palau, somehow represent a reasoned and multinational consensus position.
That fucking faggot is a puppet of Israel. He has a nice wife and family but the rumour is he is gay.
time to drop arms to pals
Perhaps Russia will just step on Turkey and annex it. Agents of The Great Red Dragon have already bankrupted Greece and Cyprus, and torn up Syria. Perhaps the WEST just won't bother to defend Turkey's arrogant sociopath.
Turkey isn't worth defending. The best thing would be Kurdish independence because they can run a state without chaos, it looks like. Rump Turkey should be easier to deal with.
I thank I speak for all of us when I say that we've all had enough turkey rump to make us sick over the past few days.
I still think that there's a good chance that Erdogan crawls on his hands and knees to Moscow. If it happens, it will go down before the end of the year.
Good time for Russia to arm the Kurds, and encourage them to claim sovereign territory within Turkey.
http://aranews.net/2015/11/kurdish-forces-in-syria-threaten-to-target-turkish-warplanes-in-case-of-breaching-rojavas-airspace/