Will Next Week Be The Start Of The Crash Of The US Dollar?

Secular Investor's picture

Amerikaanse dollar stijgen en dalen

The year 2015 is coming to an end and we’ve seen a lot this year. Not only did we see a much stronger dollar, the gold price also weakened despite the dire economic situation in, well, everywhere in the world, terrorist attacks and additional tensions between a NATO member and Russia. Additionally, the Federal Reserve seems to be on track to increase the interest rate before the end of this year. In fact, as you can see on the next chart, gold has now almost reached a 6 year low, but two important indicators are indicating the yellow metal might have been oversold lately.

Gold price

Source: stockcharts.com

An increased interest rate theoretically means a currency would become even stronger as there would be a higher demand for the US Dollar, especially in the current near-zero interest rate environment all over the world. However, there are additional elements at play here.

From Monday on, it’s not unlikely the US Dollar will see its ratio in the Special Drawing Rights basket being reduced in favor of the Chinese Yuan. Earlier this year, China has openly demanded the IMF would include its currency in the basket considering the country’s economy now is one of the largest in the world. There were quite a few people who doubted this would effectively happen, but China has made all the necessary steps as it promised a better market transparency and has even provided an updated status of the total amount of gold on the balance sheet of the Central Bank (and whether or not that’s the true number remains open for discussion. A long discussion.).

China Gold

Source: bullionstar.com

We expect the IMF to confirm on Monday the Yuan will indeed be included in the SDR basket, and this could weaken the position of the US Dollar around the world. One of the main reasons why the US Dollar gained a lot of strength lately wasn’t because of the ‘strong’ economic situation in the USA, and it wasn’t because the market was anticipating a rate hike. No, the US Dollar was appealing as a world reserve currency because it was worldwide seen as a safe currency but now the Yuan is being accepted by the IMF as part of its Special Drawing Rights basket central banks all over the world might be tempted to convert some US Dollars into Yuan as the Chinese currency will gain a lot more credibility and legitimacy overnight due to the decision of the IMF.

US Dollar Index

Source: stockcharts.com

Even the chart of the US Dollar Index shows some signs of fatigue. After the most recent run, the Relative Strength Index has almost reached an ‘overbought’ status whilst the MACD is about to make a negative crossover. These two indicators could point in the direction of a weaker US Dollar in the next few weeks.

In a previous column at Secular Investor, we already expressed our surprise about some weird trading patterns in the foreign exchange markets, and now the Yuan will probably be added to the SDR basket, we might see some more ‘weird’ swings. Is it time for a 'Dollar crash'? We wouldn't be surprised if it is.

The US Dollar might have reached the top of its strength and could see a downward correction in the next few weeks.

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hmn's picture

Buy the dip.  Fed and ECB have your back.

Bill Shockley's picture

I have said this many times.

Read A Tale of Two Cities.

 

The dollar will fail when people are hungry.

The average Ameican is hunkered down in his home hating and waiting. His kid is in the basement playing video games and the other one is waiting tables and NOT paying his student loans.

 

So,

 

Does debtor spit in the food he serves?

Is the gamer gonna pop a cap in the neighbor's ass or start shooting in public?

 

Is daddy gonna rise to the occasion at work and begin to sabotage the boss.

 

The sheeple are considering their options.

 

As for the majority of the rich, they have no money either, they have a data field that gamer in the basment can smash if he puts his mind to it.

I put my faith in the younger generation always.

 

The servants will poison the rich given the chance.

It's the easiest way.

 

   Bill

ghostzapper's picture

The IMF and the SDR are both a joke.  SDR came about in 1969 and has accomplished what exactly?  SDR is a trap for more debt enslavement.  

Yuan and USD values have very little if anything to do with IMF bullshit announcements.  Official Yuan inclusion in SDR may in fact help it gain traction globally, but this will be very gradual and methodical.  

The main threat to USD is failure to legitimately create an interbank and international asset backed currency controlled by the Treasury and NOT the Federal Reserve which some hope will be the Treasury Reserve Note.  This could in theory at least place something asset backed behind global trade and may be why we saw all of those Chinese ships parked outside of Long Beach a few months ago.  A TRN or whatever it is called can purport to gaurantee payments for the movement of goods as opposed to shoving UST down the throats of our trade partners.  The rest of the world is sick of this nonsense.    

There literally is no money with the current system.  FRN are merely debt/credit.  Silver/BTC/Gold are the only forms of money.  

ghostzapper's picture

The IMF and the SDR are both a joke.  SDR came about in 1969 and has accomplished what exactly?  SDR is a trap for more debt enslavement.  

Yuan and USD values have very little if anything to do with IMF bullshit announcements.  Official Yuan inclusion in SDR may in fact help it gain traction globally, but this will be very gradual and methodical.  

The main threat to USD is failure to legitimately create an interbank and international asset backed currency controlled by the Treasury and NOT the Federal Reserve which some hope will be the Treasury Reserve Note.  This could in theory at least place something asset backed behind global trade and may be why we saw all of those Chinese ships parked outside of Long Beach a few months ago.  A TRN or whatever it is called can purport to gaurantee payments for the movement of goods as opposed to shoving UST down the throats of our trade partners.  The rest of the world is sick of this nonsense.    

There literally is no money with the current system.  FRN are merely debt/credit.  Silver/BTC/Gold are the only forms of money.  

InnVestuhrr's picture

I predict that gold will go DOWN to between $700USD and $800USD, ie close to actual cost of production.

The financial crisis is LOOOOOOOONG over - even the incompetent imbecile PhDs in the FED have finally discovered this reality. Now is the era of stumbling economy, stagnation, and successive bursting of the bubbles created by the central bankers' experiment in monetary madness - which still will not drive demand and price for gold - but WILL drive demand and price for treasuries- ESPECIALLY when the stock market sells off - these investors, especially the institutional ones, are NEVER going buy inert gold instead of income-producing assets.

Latitude25's picture

Who gives a shit what Americans are buying.  The rest of the world and especially Asia is buying physical gold as a proven hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical instability.  And if you're so sure about future price then short it genius.  You can make a killing.

Free_Spirit's picture

While gold doesn't pay dividends, it represents stability in an unstable , overpriced world of division, war and unrealistic equity and property prices. The London house market is ripe for a major correction. I hope the fed does raise rates,  it'll make investors start to look for reward not just easy pickings. 

JIMSJOE2's picture

Todays IMF vote is more than just the yuan inclusion in the SDR baskets. Back in 2010 all countries that are IMF members, (except the US), approved  major changes that included changing the quota allocated and to have the SDR be used to settle all international trade and replace the dollar. This is why the US Congress never even voted on the IMF changes and the reason why the US has not funded their share of obligations to the IMF. The changes were to take place on 1/1/2016 but the US ask for a 9 month delay and it was given. If China is included in the basket, come 9/1/2016, all countries will be able to exchange their dollars and US treasuries to the IMF and receive SDRs which will be used to settle international trade. The IMF will become the largest holder of treasuries thus partially backing the SDR.

These changes were made for a couple of reasons. The world was devastated financially by the 2007/8 crash and the US was blamed. Also because of currency rate movements. the SDR is perceived to be more stable than the dollar. Also the US using the DOJ has maintained that they have legal jurisdiction over any individual, entity and country where dollars are used. Remember the billions in fines the US handed out to both Swiss and French banks because dollars were used in those transactions. So the urgent removal of the dollar from international trade has ramped up considerably since then. Also this will stop or greatly slowdown the US hegemony because the dollar is expected to lose 30% of it's value when all IMF changes are implemented. Everything the US imports will cost more, causing a huge slowdown, (worse than it is now), in the US economy which would cause tax receipts to fall off a cliff.

The world realized that to stop US hegemony, it had to be done financially and not militarily. The US is not going down without a fight though. From Ukraine, to Libya, the EU refugee crisis, Syria, the west's economic hit teams attacking China, Russia, Brazil, Argentina and the list goes on.  These are all desparate acts of a country that is going from a unipolar world dominated by just it, to a multipolar world where China is ascending and Russia is back on the world stage taking no prisoners. Watch the US ramp up the escalation in Ukraine again which will have the Europeans terrified because of the very real possibility that a nuclear war could happen right in their own backyard. President Putin will not let Ukraine kill the people of Russina descent. During the voting of the people of Crimea to join Russia, he stated after the fact that they were prepared to use nuclear weapons if needed. Don't think he has changed his mind. He hasn't! With the US economy in free fall, real inflation at 9%, the labor force shrinking every month, (around 100 mil out of the workforce), made up economic numbers, the US is going to do what it has done time and time again, take us to war! If the neocons in the US cannot be on top, they will drag everyone with them down to the bottom!

jj

pndr4495's picture

I think Ben Franklin would be pissed off that his image is on the US 100 dollar bill.

Jungle Jim's picture

All I know is, the last time I looked, gold was going down, not up.

jomama's picture

If I were a betting man, I'd say: "No."

pitz's picture

Why would there be higher foreign demand for the US dollar with higher interest rates?  Makes no sense to me.  If anything, there should be less foreign demand for the US dollar on account of higher interest rates as higher rates imply higher US inflation, and greater outflows from the United States to pay net foreign debt.

Remember, after all, it was the low rates that have pushed the USD$ up to its current heights.  Not higher rates.  I think the model that people are using, of rates and the USD$, is completely outdated and irrelevant considering how market conditions have changed over the past 30-40 years since there was last a major interest rate strengthening cycle (under Volcker).  Remember what happened to the USD$ in the 60s and 70s as well -- that was a rising rate environment as well!

 

 

Global Observer's picture

Inclusion of another currency in the SDR basket doesn't impact anything other than the currency in which IMF loans are made/repaid, since nothing other than the IMF loans are denominated in SDR. When IMF grants a loan, denominated in SDR, the member receiving the loan can receive it in any of the currencies of the SDR basket and repay in any of the currencies of the SDR basket. While being included in the SDR basket is a matter prestige for China, it has no real impact, since it is only an acknowledgement by the IMF that the Chinese Yuan is also a widely traded currency. Such an acknowledgement by itself doesn't impact the importance of that currency or others already in the basket.

detached.amusement's picture

I still like the analogy of baking a shit cake out of shit ingredients, and the obvious note that....the end result is still shit

Duc888's picture

 

 

 

Been a long time coming.  China wants in.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

Nah.

The fed meeting December 15-16 will hike.

That’ll strengthen the dollar.

The hike will also give wiggle room for any acts of terror later in 2016.  

Magnum's picture

Interesting move in US$ down, over the last hour.  

Lets Buy The Dip's picture

US dollar on a monthly is in agressive bull move, that will not die. I agree it will dip, but its on a UP TRAJECTORY longer term. 

plus the fact that bonds is going to probably die soon, it  means traders are getting smash. 

==> READ THIS STORY HERE <= about a trader who lost $200,000 USD and trying to get people on crowdfunding to pay him back. LOL

you see all these traders who think you just SHORT in a bull market, and make money. They are blowing up their accounts left right and centre. OH DEAR!!

arbwhore's picture

USDX to 120...  and then upwards.

Crocodile's picture

The USD dollar continues in an upward trend, then it will just disappear.  The YUAN being added into the SDR basket is the catalyst that will make that a reality, but it will take some time like say 6-24 months, but the "new" Bretton Woods Agreement has been sealed once the YAUN is officially included in the SD basket, which I believe is tomorrow, Monday Nov. 30, 2015.

 

The US will be given a new "Crap Dollar" for domestic use with massive devaluation, which will send us into 3rd world status, then we might begin to be re-industrialized as the new slave labor...just speculating on the future.

Global Observer's picture

Inclusion in the SDR basket is only an acknowledgement that a significant part of the international trade payments are being conducted in that currency and IMF members can withdraw their SDR balances in it and repay SDR denominated loans in it. IMF is not a bank where countries can deposit SDR basket currencies and get SDRs credited to a savings account or transfer SDRs to others accounts as payment.

The USD will collapse, but not because of the inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket. It will collapse when a currency that doesn't exist as of today, but will be instantly successful upon introduction if it is guaranteed to preserve the value of the savings of the export surplus nations and not open to manipulation i.e. 100% backed by gold. Since no nation can afford to back the entire volume of its currency in circulation by gold, nor does it need to, it will be a currency exclusively for settling international payments and accessible directly only to the member countries.

jcdenton's picture

I would like to know where you get your information. You sound like a Jim Willie et al mouthpiece, and I am a Hat Trick Letter subscriber. However, I can present Mr. Mike Harris which can deconstruct most of Willie handily, and Harris knows Ben Fulford, and works quite closely with Dr. Preston James (and other said "white hats" and intel cowboys)

On top of that, Harris is a close friend and associate of the only second person in U.S. history to have backdoor access to the Oval Office. How many in human history can give claim to have possession of 150,000,000,000 USD, given via order of the POTUS, and paid it all back in 6 months? Realizing some +20,000% ROI .. (not to mention ~90,000,000,000 [present value] in gold bullion)

https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp (Read Me First)

I would fair to guess (my speculation) that that is one hell of a financial collapse / reset "repair kit." Would you not agree? If money does not make the world go round, then I guess it (the axiom) is one big fat lie. And if it is not TRILLIONS (some 3x the GDP of the PRC) that can make a difference (at least a small beginning of a -- difference; in proper hands), then what will?

One more point of observation. You state that currency reset begins tomorrow. If we look to the 3/24/15 discussion (Wanta archive), it portends from that date ~90 to 180 days for the reset. I guess if it could have well happened in the first 90 days (by the end of June), then that would be giving it (the time table) a -3 months on that 180 days. It did not happen in the first 3 months. And, it did not happened in the next 3 months (by end Sept.)

But in assigning any fair error of margin in any prediction table, if one gives a -3 (3 months into the 180 day cycle), then is it not fair to also give a +3 on that same 180 days? That would give it to the end of Dec. '15. If currency collapse and reset begins effectively tomorrow, Nov. 30, then we are well within the +3 margin error given. Not bad if I dare say in predicting geopolitical machinations.

InnVestuhrr's picture

Yes, of course, EVERYONE will be abandoning the proven USD and USD assets in order to transfer their capital to yuan in Chinese assets in China, where investors get  arrested, jailed and even executed for trying to withdraw their capital from China and for selling their own assets when they choose at the price that they choose.Yep, China and yuan are very clearly SO MUCH BETTER than the USA and USD.

I can see the tidal wave of exit from the USD into the yuan, just as you described, I can even hear it now ... oh, sorry, that was just the toilet flushing.

Crocodile's picture

Gold may be oversold, but December normally gives a nice gift to the PM bugs; so I believe the price fluctuates little and may reach new lows by year end.  Stop buying gifts (Chinese trinkets) that are useless and buy PM's for the future that will see hyperinflation if we survive the war.  Your children will thank you later and likely not be so happy now; remember you are the parent.

 

Argentinians, Greeks and Brazilians wish they had all their saving in PM's right now for those who need an example and the reason to own.

 

The FED cannot raise rates unless they intentionally plan to wreck what is left of the global economy; so be prepared to take advantage of the hype; get ready to buy the dip that is coming, for January is almost always positive for the stocks.  I'm probably wrong though since nothing is normal anymore.

RMolineaux's picture

The author of this item has not shown any causal connection between the accession of the yuan to the SDR basket and a collapse of the US dollar.  There will be a small psychological impact and the value of each Special Drawing Right will become more realistic in terms of all other currencies.  But at the present time, the SDR has very little use as a unit of exchange.  It is used in a very small way in international invoicing and vacancy announcements, as a way to evade sudden changes in the exchange rates of individual currencies.

No doubt the Chinese are hoping that the use of the SDR in international trade will expand in the future.  This will be a positive development because it will not sublject the rest of the world to monetary decisions of the US.  But it will be a long drawn out process, as it will require a change in the thinking habits of millions of economic actors. 

honestann's picture

Yes, the causal connection is very weak.  Unfortunately most humans ignore causality and make decisions and behave based upon "official propaganda".

For example, try to give a justification for human beings transacting and saving in fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-note bits rather than gold or silver based upon "causal connections".  Yup, that causal connection is extremely weak.

99.999% of humans are stupid beyond words.

A great many of the 0.001% of humans who make financial and investment decisions based upon "causal connections" have gone broke by expecting the masses of humans to make their decisions based upon "causal connections" and "rational thought".

Sad, but true.

PS:  I'm not saying I buy the conclusions of the article, just addressing how important "causal connections" are in current mass-manipulated financial non-markets.  My conclusion: "not very".  I'll also add that "causal connections" would be important in rational non-manipulated true markets.  And even in the current mass-manipulated financial non-markets "causality still works".  However, the mass-manipulations artificially shifts the consequences of the causal phenomenon into other places, which eventually destroys overall efficiency and collapses both non-markets and real productivity.  But timing that is extremely difficult (manipulated systems are non-robust, and usually destroyed by what people call "black swans" (what seem to be unrelated causes)).

logically possible's picture

Thanks Anne, for sharing your knowledge and your insight.

Mayer Amschel Rothschild's picture

"Transacting" with U$D in the USA is decreed. In other words the U$D has a monopoly for monetary exchange. Do you "transact" in precious metals? Which merchants accept it? Do you even know what you are emoting about, Sweetie?

honestann's picture

Yes, I ran an experiment about 4 years ago to see how much of my expenses I could pay with gold and silver coins.

At first it was difficult going, but after several months I was able to trade gold or silver coins for about 95% of my needs & wants.  Since you asked, I think the first major merchant to accept gold and silver from me was a Fry's Electronics.

Much easier to convince than most large merchants were home owners I rented from, and small businesses (usually the smaller the easier).  Most local natural food grocers were uniformly easy to convince.  Obvious note:  You must talk to owners or managers, because obviously no cashier will accept gold or silver coins without prior arrangement.

QQQBall's picture

If you look at the almost total mockery of gold bugs, it is at epic levels. People will not even click on a gold-positive article. When the leverage in the system starts to hicup, the banks and their evel twin (USG) will have to take the gloves off.

arbwhore's picture

Just wait until $1000 is broken. Epic can get epicer.

QQQBall's picture

Dude, why would banks want inflation? Why would any creditor want inflation? Is ZIRP helping main street or the financial firms? Now idjits think inflation is good - like I can buy less with my USDs - wow!

pitz's picture

Higher interest rates and inflation destroys the banks.  Banks benefit from a falling interest rate environment first and foremost, where their long-term assets (loans) are appreciating, while their funding costs are depreciating.  The reverse or even a relatively motionless yield curve is deadly for the bloated and innefficient banking/insurance sector.

Rising rates will destroy a significant chunk of the US banking sector removing its chronic state of overcapacity.  Bank equity owners beware! 

medium giraffe's picture

Making a profit via higher interest on loans that were created out of thin air at zero cost to the bank is bad for the banks?

Please, just stop.

pitz's picture

Banks do not create money out of thin air.  Once you disabuse yourself of that notion we can have an adult conversation about this.  Okay?

detached.amusement's picture

and after stopping, go investigate medium giraffe's av image

honestann's picture

I don't want to be critical, but you accidentally raised a point that almost nobody ever raises, so I'll answer your question to do so.

Banks are fundamentally unlike any other business in some ways.  The one I have in mind is the following (partial answer to your question).

To lend out money costs a bank ZERO.  They create the fiat currency bits they lend out of thin nothing.  Everyone knows that, but notice how this puts banks in a different situation than anyone else.

The difference is the following.  If any productive business lends (or invests) currency, they need the VALUE (purchasing power) of the principle and interest they receive in repayment to exceed the VALUE (purchasing power) of the principle they lent.  Otherwise THEY LOST, and if they keep this up, they're outta business.

But a bank is different.  Since the cost for them to create (and real value) of fiat currency bits is zero, banks GAIN as long as the number of fiat dollars they receive in repayment of principle and interest are greater than the number of fiat dollars they lent.  So (to first order) they can completely ignore the value of the fiat currency bits they lend and receive.  When they do their books, they can completely ignore the value of the fiat currency bits (ignore inflation).

So the banks can look at the other side of the lending process, namely default.  If the chances they receive repayment of principle and interest is higher during inflation, they have an incentive to want inflation.  Also, to the extent they lend to themselves, their families, their friends and their co-conspirators, they are glad those borrowers get to pay back less value than they borrowed.

Yes, IF they could be certain all their borrowers would repay, banks would be somewhat better off receiving repayment in non-inflated dollars.  That's because they do have some real expenses (heating, salaries, so forth).  But this is less important for a bank than balancing the books, which means getting repaid.  The difference inflation makes in a repayment may be 1%, 2%, 5% of the currency bits lent.  The difference failure to repay makes is typically 50%, 75%, 90%.  Which is worse for the bank is fairly obvious.

pitz's picture

Banks have to borrow, from a counterparty (whether a shareholder, a bondholder, a depositor, etc.) every last dime they lend out.  So loans most certainly do have a cost of creation.  Banks benefit from the spread between what they can borrow from the shareholders/bondholders/depositors, and what they can lend for. 

In a rising rate environment, the bank's long-term assets are likely to suffer losses, while funding costs are likely to rise.  And the market value of collateral backing the long-term loans is likely to fall, creating further stress on funding costs as equity burns away.  Hence, rising rates are deadly to the financial sector.

 

honestann's picture

FALSE.  But rather than be super-critical, I'll just suggest that you find out what the term "fractional-reserve banking" means.

Hint... they create fiat out of nothing when they loan.

pitz's picture

The Fed does, but not the individual commercial banks.  Additionally, its actually the depositor who loans the money into existence by putting their money in a bank without demanding collateral.  The bank is just a borrower and lender, and has no special powers to create fiat any more so than any other private citizen.  In fact, banks are subject to regulatory interventions far greater than private individuals.

A private individual who borrows $100 from his mother-in-law and invests $100 somewhere is doing an activity identical to that of the banks.  Neither the private individual, nor the bank enjoys any sort of exhorbitant privilege.  Its the mother-in-law who is the stupid one for lending the private individual money without taking collateral.

honestann's picture

You really, really, really need to go watch the free youtube videos by Mike Maloney.  Seriously.  Watch them all, including #4.

fel.temp.reparatio's picture

...and you've been on ZH 5+ years? un-fucking-believable!

medium giraffe's picture

WTF? Never heard of fractional reserve banking or M2?

 

"Commercial bank lending also creates money under the form of demand deposits."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_creation

"In most countries, the central bank (or other monetary authority) regulates bank credit creation."

"Deposits created in this way are sometimes called derivative deposits and are part of the process of creation of money by commercial banks." 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking

"virtually all money is now created through individuals, or businesses, or governments going into debt to government-sponsored commercial banks."

http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Criticism_of_fractional_reserve_banking

 

You really should ask your college for a refund.

Womb Service's picture

You've posted this BS before. Click the link below. Go to page 14.

 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/...

 

Stop posting lies.

herkomilchen's picture

Superb analysis.  At first I thought this wasn't right until I put some numbers to it and thought it through.  You are right.  Banks eagerly want inflation.

The key is the bank is not actually a creditor.  It does not care about the value of the principle eroded due to inflation because the principle is not the bank's money.  It comes from thin air and need be returned to thin air in nominal amount only.  Moreover the bank can charge higher, inflation adjusted interest on that entire principle but pocket all that interest itself as if the principle belonged to it.  Yet the bank is not a creditor with respect to the principle, it too is a debtor just passing the principle along to the end borrower.

The true creditor is the general public whose diminished purchasing power funds the loan.  However, since the temporarily printed money is destroyed at a lower value than when it was created, the public pays the banks for not only the time value of money but also pays the banks for the inflation losses on that money during that time.  If time value of money is 5% and inflation is 0% then banks extract from the public $5 on every $100 they loan every year.  If inflation spikes to 15%, then banks extract from the public $5 plus $15 = $20 for every $100 they loan every year.

Crushingly pernicious for the general public.  Windfall lucrative for the banks.

honestann's picture

Yes, exactly correct.  And yet another issue I never see mentioned anywhere, not even by the alternate media.

Plus, I like the way you explain it better.  :-)

kiwimail's picture

But but but, the $us is backed by the full faith and credit of the US!!!!

Hubbs's picture

Oh geezh, not again.

 

The answer for the 10 millionth time is NO!!!

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

It would be pretty cool if it was, but I doubt it

SMC's picture

Some might say that the FRN USD started crashing from inception considering that one dollar today is worth approximately 13 "1913" cents.

Fiat trash.