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An Angry Trader Rages: "There Is Nothing Normal About It"
Back in March, during one of his $250,000/hour speeches, Ben Bernanke said that he does not expect a rate normalization "during his lifetime."
To be sure, there has been much debate of what is "normal" in a world in which central banks hold over 20% of the world's GDP on their balance sheets and where trillions in government bonds trade at negative rates. One attempt to capture the insanity behind such semantics comes this morning from Bloomberg's Richard Breslow who appears to not be in a very good mood after the holiday weekend, and who realizes the futility of trying to "renormalize" a world without constant central bank intervention.
Here is Breslow:
Nothing Normal About It
As we prepare to be prepared by Fed Chair Yellen for the oh-so long awaited first rate hike, it is probably well worth reminding ourselves not to use the word “normality” loosely. The U.S. economy is clawing its way back but is left with serious distortions and mis-allocations that make things feel less robust, and happy, than the aggregated numbers suggest. The global economy remains a mess, on the whole, so the Fed really will be going it alone.
In the history of tightening cycles we’ve never had a Fed so intent on hammering home the message that if anything goes wrong they will be quick to respond, backtrack and ensure financial stability (a term that has become a sorry euphemism for propping up stocks)
What is meant to soothe, should be having the opposite effect. In a “normal” world, a rate hike is meant to cool off the economy. In this case, it is equally motivated by the imperative to make monetary policy functional again. Does anyone seriously think they are worried about inflation getting out of control?
Of greater concern is that the focus on asset prices at the expense of the real economy, has desensitized markets from rationally (or even at all) responding to geopolitical events. When bad or dangerous events occur the weight of the consequences is borne solely by the non-financial community. Here we go again.
All global events have been reduced to monetary policy events, i.e., buy the dip opportunities. France’s CAC-40 sold off the two trading days before the recent horror. It was a solid buy the following Monday.
By always protecting risk-takers, the authorities are complicit in trivializing issues that need an all hands on-deck response. Bad news is good news has metastasized into an even baser concept
Raising rates will, hopefully, be a step in the right direction, but there is little that is normal as yet.
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The assumption here is that in this financial chess game, there is a way out of the checkmate position.
We haven't even got to the 'change the rules when losing' part of the game.
<Checkmate ain't checkmate anymore.>
The way out of this is bankruptcy. Complete and total liquidation of all assets, banks, and governments.
Gold-backed, oil-backed or debt-backed... "dollars" are shit. Your brains are shit. If it comes from teh government.... it is shit and only a loser would want it.
Quarter mil an hour to smile and say "we don't really have a clue what we are doing...", why not add "Ron Paul is right, artificial interest rates lead to mal investment....and that is what we have".
This bus went over the cliff years ago. The Fed is just pretending to drive so that the passengers who haven't looked out the window yet don't panic.
Some peoples conversations or comments also only achieve just that:
Case in point:
Gold-backed, oil-backed or debt-backed... "dollars" are shit. Your brains are shit. If it comes from teh government.... it is shit and only a loser would want it.
Hence, this says very little helpful to others who, unfortunately, have to read it. For, you see, PhoneStar, if that is what you like to be referred to as, comments such as that fill the internet like scrawling along the universe's greatest bathroom wall: The Internet.
Cointard will be by to poop on everything and pimp the crypto ponzi any second now................................
Shitcoin, the miracle currency.
Wipes up big dirty messes magically, sucks up all available sheeple investments into same, and then, POOF ! It's gone.
"We haven't even got to the 'change the rules when losing' part of the game."
really? cause "goldman & jpm are allowed to promote & reintroduce previously captured pawns to any space on the board" seems like a pretty damn accurate analogy for the last 7 yrs to me...
Checkmate is indeed not checkmate anymore, CognitiveDissonance; in fact, nothing is as it really appears to be if you take the idea of the Spectacle (from Paris of 1967) and assume that its form has not been removed from our economic psyches (which, evidently, it has not). No, Mr. Debord, it has only continued to grow to the point that it actually acheived the idea of the 'Autonomous image' (i.e., HolisterTM having a Twitter account to 'speak' to 'you').
It was never a joke and it was always intended to do harm to the spectacular system of politics that have long infected key positions of government and, therefore, manipulating both policy and populations.
So, the idea is that it is a checkmate only insofar that it achieves the image of a Checkmate.
Yeah, you just take your arm and wipe it across the board. Alternatively, you can flip the board over and play Parcheesi.
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Normal has gone the way of the $2 bill.
Raising rates will, hopefully, be a step in the right direction, but there is little that is normal as yet...
Well, if the FED does decide to raise the rates of our macroeconomy, there is something that I will at least myself have noticed that I will simply keep to myself: it sure does seem as though this raising of rates could have occurred at several points in the past where the damage could have been managed better and minimized.
Now, with popcorn in hand and a suspended war filling my breathing like Beijing smog, I will have to witness what the more adult of adults do for all the adults and kiddos.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3719756-is-the-fed-about-to-commit-the-s...
I love a good morning rant. Clears the mind.
The big punch line is that they have zero idea as to how it will end or even what the black swan triggers are.
Taking unprecedented steps always leads to at least one unprecedented negative result.
Then of course the rules are changed again. After the middle class has paid off the first mistake.
'Back in March, during one of his $250,000/hour speeches, Ben Bernanke said that he does not expect a rate normalization "during his lifetime.""
Well now, that really depends on how much longer he lives. right? It also would assume that the Fed does not lose control. The latter seems more likely.
"It has been shown that men go mad in herds, and only regain their senses slowly, one by one."
Looks like another one woke up.
/My time. It is coming.
Ahhh yes, the suffocating embrace of the motherly technocrat. Is the porridge too hot? Let me blow on it for you. Is that a boo-boo you have there? Come, I'll put a bandaid on it, kiss it, to make it all better.
And then...comes the moment of truth...fly from the nest little birdie!!!
Kersplat! Chomp!
Hey, cat's have to eat too ;-)
Oh for Pete's sake! Raise the rates already Janet! It is only a quarter of 1%.
Get busy living, or get busy dying. Red
"Bull Queers take by force!" - Red
I'll share Jacks complete lack of surprise when rates are not raised.
Oh, I think they'll raise. The markets will go down. The banksters will tell Mom and Pop to "get out!"...... and they will buy waiting for the Fed's rate cut. The script has been written.
So 'Raise .25 bp, buy, then cut rate back to where it was'......nah I think they'll just keep kicking the phony rate raising rhetoric can down the road.
They say the Fed has to raise in order to stay credible. ??? Say what? Where is the logic of that? Why do they need to do it now versus four of five years ago when it might have made sense? What suddenly changed to put their credibility on the line now? They won't raise because of fundamentals because most of those clearly line up against it. Yet they still talk about it as if it's coming. I think they will raise as a last ditch psyops effort. Under the surface deflation is raging and they know they have lost control. It's been that way for almost a year. A hail-Mary play with a rate hike may be seen as their only (slim) chance. Maybe by acting like they believe it they will convince enough others to change the deteriorating psychology. If I'm right they will need to bring the other banks on board. If you start hear Draghi and Kurada singing about how things are getting rosy and more extraordinary measures won't be needed then expect a hike. If they don't all sing in unison they might as well not try.
This is my gut feeling only but my gut is only wrong about every other time. Heads or tails this time?
The global economy is a mess because the local economy does not exist
Austerity is the rationing process required to feed either the war or consumer war economy.
Me?
I am telling everyone to vote for Hillary/Huma 2016.
http://youtu.be/1nEoKCylwRQ
Watch this video and tell me you are NOT disgusted with this wig wearing lesbian manicured lizard in human form with a straight face.
However, she seems to be the underlying soul of the masses of females here aka the 'merican woman.
We already got the right wing retard, and the soft lefty faggot, now all we need to destroy the cuntry, is to finally elect a woman and let the world see the depths that women can plumb, in all her jezebel majesty.
So who or what do you support?
I stand by this cunt.
http://youtu.be/uhfPyreR_sE
The 'markets' went down when a bomb didn't go off but was just found
Watch Irish energy consumption
As it is the most extreme example of the "New economy " ( see old usury Economy) it's energy balance tells you almost all that is needed to know.
This is the model economy of the Paris talks.
Rising energy consumption in the car and aviation sectors, falling local energy demand.
Transfer of wealth continues until the 80% have no more. If anyone holds treasuries at some point they will look like fools.
Printing until a currency crisis occurs. That's when markets are free again.
Irish 12 month moving average.
Diesel
Aug 2012: 43 kbd.
Aug 2015: 53 kbd.
Petrol:
Aug 2012: 29kbd.
Aug 2015 :25 kbd.
The bankers low carbon economy is a fake.
The Irish bailout of late 2010 was a bailout of the consumer war economy.
Irish private car energy consumption was dropping between 2008 and 2010.
This year it will pass it's 2008 peak despite the near total diesel fleet today.
“Some of the biggest cases of mistaken identity are among intellectuals who have trouble remembering that they are not God.”
Thomas Sowell
Governments attempt to control markets and climate. It will not end well.
For a Bloomberg reporter that wasn't a bad rant at all, albeit a little lowkey. I'm not sure what his previous articles have been like but I'm guessing even jounalists are getting tired of having to lie through their teeth day in and day out and occasionally the truth slips out. Let's hope we see more of it but with the climate summit farce kicking off it could be a week to avoid reading the news.
Quick. Rase rates before the housing market falls again.
For Europe to recover it must get its energy balance back to at least pre masstricht levels.
The production / consumption loop can at least be semi closed.
Irish transport road freightinputs
1990: 346 kto
2007: 1,145kto ( peak)
2013: 581 kto (euro through)
2014: 621 ktoe ( recovery ????? is in reality a recovery of waste creation)
Usury =WASTE
Extreme usury = extreme waste.
21billion 100 million euros of tax collected in Ireland (over half of Total) was not respent in the state.
This tax adds to the price of goods be it through increased wages needed to sustain this burden or direct tax on goods, in particular basic goods.
This increases the % of global trade relative to local commerce and production.
These taxes actually increase global carbon emission and does not decrease them as more and more energy gets vectored into distribution and not local production consumption.
what mr breslow still doesnt get is its all been by design. 2001 Hijack military, sway public opinion. 2008 Take over and disable all capital markets.ZIRP to fund the Greater Isreali Project. ..Really? Raise rates? Never gonna happen and never was planned to haapen. To even ponder that thought now is really riduculousness.
You can reality or you can have the managed FED.
Choose.
Ill choose a normal market. Were riches arent just printed at the move of a mouse. I gotta work my ass off everyday. .I have a problem with counterfeiting and indexes moving 1.5% in a matter of minutes.
We robbed some folks.
Well. He should get ready for the next Fed move. The obvious move they must do is to lower the USD exchange rate because they are friggen destroying the economy by propping it up. And that observation has nothing to with markets forces, which do not matter. It is just what the Fed has to do, no matter what happens with rates.
CORRECTION:
"a term that has become a sorry euphemism for..." ENRICHING INFLUENTIAL CRONIES FOR THE PURPOSE OF KEEPING THE CON RUNNING JUST A LITTLE LONGER.