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AsiaPac Unleashes Baffle 'Em With Bullshit Data Bonanza
From South Korean exports (beat) to Aussie PMI (multi-year highs) and from China Manufacturing PMI (2012 lows) to Japan CapEx (multi-year highs), AsiaPac was awash with the exact kind of baffle 'em with bullshit data that provides just enough "see everything is awesome after all" to balance the "umm, but what about..." less glass half full perspective. For your viewing pleasure - 5 WTF charts for AsiaPac economies.
WTF1 - Aussie PMI surprises to the upside to 2 year highs as Aussie Consumer confidence collapses...
WTF2 - While Aussie business spending collapsed at tits fastest pace on record Aussie PMI surged to near cycle highs...
WTF3 - Japanese CapEx surged by the most since 2007 as GDP dropped for the 5th time in 5 years...
WTF4 - South Korean exports dropped (again) but beat expectations notably despite not having any positive impact at all on the cost of 'exporting'...
And finally...
WTF5 - China Services PMI jumps unexpectedly as the official manufacturing PMI just collapsed to its lowest level since August 2012, as the broad-based contraction accelerates.
Charts: Bloomberg
Confused yet? The answer is simple - if it's bad news, buy stocks because the central bank will be forced to ease. If it's good news, buy moar stocks because it proves central planners have fixed the problem.
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So we buy the WTF? Sounds legit.
The Keynsian money system has the printing press and lies. That's it.
what could possibly go wrong?...happy days!!!
I'm still perplexed as to why the Aussie is trading the .7200 handle with USDX trading over the 100 handle.
After the China SDR deal, I guess the RBA would want to increase it's yuan holdings, but that would mean selling aud, unless it's proxied with other fx reserves, through a bond or currency swaps agreement.
In any case, the aud/usd is fairly priced, and the risk premium is priced in as long as the RBA is not interested in dropping rates further.
I can't work it out.
I shorted at 72.50 because I was thinking the same thing, strong USDX.
Might get an Arse whipping on this trade.
I'm flat that trade. There's a resistance level just below .7400, I'm keeping my eye on.
I'm also watching eur/aud and gbp/aud. if that .7400 level goes and gets confirmed, the Fed. is going to wind up printers again.
I have some eur/usd options for Draghi this week. Just smalls, [10k contracts] Those March lows might go, and if not I'm out the premium.
I'll stay with it until about 74.50.
That will be a big enough learning lesson for me, I think.
The strength of this thing has really taken me by surprise. But Hey, that's trading!
I hope that you're aware that when u short currency with strong central bank ur at the mercy of CB planners. Nothing has changed here in OZland, economy is on the brink of the collapse (unless u believe in miracles) and nothings gonna change that. Didn't former PM Gillard told us that " economy should adapt to new circumstances". In other words f*ck all but miners. Well. we see now how that turned out. I really don't have a clue if ozzy dollar will go up or down but economy is in pretty bad shape and budget is showing signs of stress - hell, they've scrapped government support of child care and want to introduce new taxes. It will not be long before they succumb to internationally recognized remedy for this type of situation - that is, money printing and currency devaluation (though I think that even dollar in low 50s will not do much here cause problem is structural as many companies closed the door during high AUD era - it'll take years to fill this gap).
In the meantime, government is trying to attract politburo and rest of China's millionaire/billionair club to a ne whome with visa-for-smallcap investing program. However, I firmly believe that main wave of China's own "drunken sheikh" syndrome is gone. Still, 5 bedroom house in nice leefy Sydney suburb just went for 7 mil $ (645k over reserve) with buyer on the phone call directly from China. But apart from few hot spots - most of the market is slowly dying.
AUD/USD in the low 50's is a real possibility.
And you are right. It will do bugger all for the Aussie economy. A country that requires the shipment of dirt and ever increasing property values for GDP growth is pretty much screwed.
But have a guess what. Currency trading isn't about the economy. It's about making a living.
who ever said these datapoints have to correlate with each other?
Exactly. This post is a bit of a stretch.
Well I live in Australia so....
SMART TV HERE I COME!!!!
5 graphs of Brownian motion?
Brownian motion is random. These graphs definitely show Maxwell's Demon at work.
The important thing when investing in foreign currencies (except when you're flat-out gambling) is to spread your bets. You will lose money if your base currency rises, but your losses will be limited. That's all pretty obvious to most of us, but I know people who seem to think that their "base currency" is the one they're most heavily invested in.
I believe korea, or did you miss black Friday and cyber monday?
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