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AsiaPac Unleashes Baffle 'Em With Bullshit Data Bonanza

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From South Korean exports (beat) to Aussie PMI (multi-year highs) and from China Manufacturing PMI (2012 lows) to Japan CapEx (multi-year highs), AsiaPac was awash with the exact kind of baffle 'em with bullshit data that provides just enough "see everything is awesome after all" to balance the "umm, but what about..." less glass half full perspective. For your viewing pleasure - 5 WTF charts for AsiaPac economies.

WTF1 - Aussie PMI surprises to the upside to 2 year highs as Aussie Consumer confidence collapses...

 

WTF2 - While Aussie business spending collapsed at tits fastest pace on record Aussie PMI surged to near cycle highs...

 

WTF3 - Japanese CapEx surged by the most since 2007 as GDP dropped for the 5th time in 5 years...

 

WTF4 - South Korean exports dropped (again) but beat expectations notably despite not having any positive impact at all on the cost of 'exporting'...

 

And finally...

WTF5 - China Services PMI jumps unexpectedly as the official manufacturing PMI just collapsed to its lowest level since August 2012, as the broad-based contraction accelerates.

Charts: Bloomberg

Confused yet? The answer is simple - if it's bad news, buy stocks because the central bank will be forced to ease. If it's good news, buy moar stocks because it proves central planners have fixed the problem.

 

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Mon, 11/30/2015 - 21:35 | 6859181 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

So we buy the WTF? Sounds legit.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 21:36 | 6859184 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The Keynsian money system has the printing press and lies.  That's it.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 21:42 | 6859203 runswithscissors
runswithscissors's picture

what could possibly go wrong?...happy days!!!

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 21:45 | 6859209 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm still perplexed as to why the Aussie is trading the .7200 handle with USDX trading over the 100 handle.

After the China SDR deal, I guess the RBA would want to increase it's yuan holdings, but that would mean selling aud, unless it's proxied with other fx reserves, through a bond or currency swaps agreement.

 In any case, the aud/usd is fairly priced, and the risk premium is priced in as long as the RBA is not interested in dropping rates further.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 21:58 | 6859263 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

I can't work it out.

I shorted at 72.50 because I was thinking the same thing, strong USDX.

Might get an Arse whipping on this trade.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 22:06 | 6859290 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm flat that trade. There's a resistance level just below .7400, I'm keeping my eye on.

I'm also watching eur/aud and gbp/aud. if that .7400 level goes and gets confirmed, the Fed. is going to wind up printers again.

 I have some eur/usd options for Draghi this week. Just smalls, [10k contracts] Those March lows might go, and if not I'm out the premium.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 22:17 | 6859328 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

I'll stay with it until about 74.50.

That will be a big enough learning lesson for me, I think.

The strength of this thing has really taken me by surprise. But Hey, that's trading!

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 22:59 | 6859461 european child
european child's picture

I hope that you're aware that when u short currency with strong central bank ur at the mercy of CB planners. Nothing has changed here in OZland, economy is on the brink of the collapse (unless u believe in miracles) and nothings gonna change that. Didn't former PM Gillard told us that " economy should adapt to new circumstances". In other words f*ck all but miners. Well. we see now how that turned out. I really don't have a clue if ozzy dollar will go up or down but economy is in pretty bad shape and budget is showing signs of stress - hell, they've scrapped government support of child care and want to introduce new taxes. It will not be long before they succumb to internationally recognized remedy for this type of situation - that is, money printing and currency devaluation (though I think that even dollar in low 50s will not do much here cause problem is structural as many companies closed the door during high AUD era - it'll take years to fill this gap).

In the meantime, government  is trying to attract politburo and rest of China's millionaire/billionair club to a ne whome with visa-for-smallcap investing program. However, I firmly believe that main wave of China's own "drunken sheikh" syndrome is gone. Still, 5 bedroom house in nice leefy Sydney suburb just went for 7 mil $ (645k over reserve) with buyer on the phone call directly from China. But apart from few hot spots - most of the market is slowly dying.

 

Tue, 12/01/2015 - 02:59 | 6859893 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

AUD/USD in the low 50's is a real possibility.

And you are right. It will do bugger all for the Aussie economy. A country that requires the shipment of dirt and  ever increasing property values for GDP growth is pretty much screwed.

But have a guess what. Currency trading isn't about the economy. It's about making a living. 

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 21:55 | 6859255 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

who ever said these datapoints have to correlate with each other?

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 22:42 | 6859405 MD
MD's picture

Exactly. This post is a bit of a stretch.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 22:07 | 6859292 Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

Well I live in Australia so....

 

SMART TV HERE I COME!!!!

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 23:00 | 6859462 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

5 graphs of Brownian motion?

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 23:13 | 6859512 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Brownian motion is random. These graphs definitely show Maxwell's Demon at work.

Mon, 11/30/2015 - 23:53 | 6859619 BarnacleBill
BarnacleBill's picture

The important thing when investing in foreign currencies (except when you're flat-out gambling) is to spread your bets. You will lose money if your base currency rises, but your losses will be limited. That's all pretty obvious to most of us, but I know people who seem to think that their "base currency" is the one they're most heavily invested in.

Tue, 12/01/2015 - 11:14 | 6860723 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

I believe korea, or did you miss black Friday and cyber monday?

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