NAR Admits Oil Slump Finally Hits Housing Sales

Tyler Durden's picture

We were told that low oil prices were unequivocally good for America, so it's odd that, after seeing the weakest growth in pending home sales since Nov 2014, NAR blames "softness in sales on oil-related job losses from low oil prices." Pending home sales grew 2.1% YoY in October, (way below the 4.3% expected growth and 3.2% growth in September).

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

The blame for this trend...

"Areas that are heavily reliant on oil-related jobs are the exception and have already started to see some softness in sales because of declining energy prices," adds Yun.

 

"In the most competitive metro areas – particularly those in the South and West – affordability concerns remain heightened as low inventory continues to drive up prices."  

Source: Realtor.org

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Normalcy Bias's picture

If they're not repeating their There's Never Been A Better Time To Buy mantra, perhaps they've become despondent and started hitting the sauce over at the NAR.

 

FireBrander's picture

"soft oil" or China cracking down on ILLEGAL outflows of cash?

Million Dollar cash Buyers in CA and drying up...pun intended!

If you own a $1,000,000 crack house in LA, SELL IT NOW!

China to intensify crackdown on illegal money transfers to fight corruption

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/10/us-china-economy-money-transfe...

China Cracks $64 Billion `Underground Bank' Moving Money Abroad

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/china-cracks-64-billio...

 

FireBrander's picture

"There's Never Been A Better Time To Buy" If prices are falling, you should by now. That way, when you flip it next year, your loss won't be as great as it would have been had you waited to buy!

Also, don't forget, the FED has your back with housing...how about 0% home loans? or NEGATIVE 1% home loans...THEY PAY YOU TO BORROW THE MONEY TO BUY A HOME...that' oughta REALLY BOOST SALES!

Renfield's picture

Not trying to spam the thread and I get your sarc, but this is an issue that is important to me, since housing is an essential need for people and it's sad that their education on this is so dismal.

The best time to 'buy' a house (or to sign a contract to rent it from the government) is when prices are low, and interest rates high. We have not seen that 'time to buy' since the early '90s.

Ban the government from markets under stiff criminal penalty, break up the criminal banks, and then we will see 'time to buy' return for ALL our markets, including housing. Until then, it's just spun numbers on meaningless charts, effectively a casino.

JustObserving's picture

America uses 20 million barrels of oil per day and imports about 7.5 million barrels a day.  So domestic production is about 12.5 million barrels a day.  A $80 decline in the price of oil means about a billion dollars less revenue a day.

Of course, even Stevie Wonder can see it  will affect home buying.  But finally the NAR sees.

madcows's picture

How come there is never a headline:

"House prices hit house sales!"

Still way too frigging expensive.

corporatewhore's picture

Many affected by the 2008 depression crash have never recovered.  Some who had high paying jobs lost them and never found a replacement paying as much.  Many work two jobs.  They may have lost their home, rented and figured that home ownership isn't worth the stress or grief of high real estate taxes or the cost of maintenance.  Many don't believe the american dream anymore.

Renfield's picture

By American Dream, you're referring to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, of course. Which really doesn't have a lot to do with the prices of goods: houses, food, or anything else. But living under a government run by criminals, that forces productivity to hide and controls the issue of both product and scrip: yes, that will affect people's belief in the American Dream. 'Home ownership' is just more salestalk, in a country where the 'government' owns all 'homes' anyway via the property tax.

buzzsaw99's picture

Please sir, I want some MOAR. [/operation twist]

Banker Buster's picture

"Low Inventory"  LOL Got to be kidding me, there are a ton of houses on the market and a lot of them have been sitting there for years.  Yun you can't bullshit a bullshitter.  

FireBrander's picture

Local Housing Market

Pre Bush economic collapse: Realtors wouldn't bother putting up a "For Sale" sign...they had buyers waiting.

Post Bush Ecomic Collapse: Market froze. Banks foreclosed but didn't list the homes.

Obama/FED housing "Re-inflation" bubble today: 2 to 4 months to get a home sold at all time high prices.

Something gotta give...

847328_3527's picture
China Seeks Businessman Said to Have Fled to U.S., Further Straining Ties

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/04/world/asia/china-seeks-ling-wancheng-b...

 

 

They may have to repossess half of Cali houses if they vigorously seek these money launderers.

FranSix's picture

You'll also have people commuting across the country to their oil jobs that are dwindling in the aftermath. Mostly oil corporations will probably attempt to hang on to their qualified workers hoping oil prices and investment return.

An interesting chart is LUV, considering the deteriorating numbers.

22winmag's picture

Wow, the pimps and whores at the NAR are finally forced to state the truth.

 

Next week it will be back to unicorns barfing skittles.

Renfield's picture

<<We were told that low oil prices were unequivocally good for America, so it's odd that, after seeing the weakest growth in pending home sales since Nov 2014, NAR blames "softness in sales on oil-related job losses from low oil prices.">>

And so, it turns out that low oil prices ARE good for America. In the area of housing, anyway. There is no reason to take the opinion of the NAR seriously though, Tyler, on prices, jobs, or anything else. They're just a bunch of salespeople, with an obvious vested interest in their commission.

What kind of moron thinks high house prices are good 'for America'? And no, not even the NAR does - as with any salesmen, they are not saying what they really think about their pricing. What they think is: high house prices are bad for America, but good for the salesfolk of the NAR.

Next, grocers will be saying high food prices are good for America... not sure even the sheep will fall for that one.

Genuine deflation - when it arrives - will be a GOOD thing, as it generally is, for productive citizens and customers. Deflation has not yet arrived for housing, but it looks like it's peeping around the corner. And yes, that will be good for America. Thank you, oil deflators.

The article is good inasfar as it goes, but rates a "3" for relevance. We will know that people have achieved a bit of housing market savvy, when no-one reports on statements from salespeople, as though it were news. Statements from the NAR are not news; they are just advertising. As such, they belong in the Hedge's advertising section, which really should be kept separate from the news pages.

nmewn's picture

This is actually closer to the truth, more people benefit from LOWER oil prices (more people having more money=more people with more buying power) than those few who are now unemployed.

NAR is full of shit, there's too many houses on the market having been built with practically zero interest AND many people are simply not interested in being tied down to a mortgage along with all the crap that comes with it...like pulling a permit to put up a fucking shed or park your boat in your driveway (if you're in a HOA neighborhood).

Now, if you'll forgive me I'll take my leave...I've got an "illegal" out building I'm almost finished with on MY PROPERTY that I DID NOT pull a permit for or pay their dumbass fee to get.

Adieu ;-)

Renfield's picture

Au revoir, m'sieur. Sounds like you are doing things right, except for saying certain things in full view of the NSA. ;-) Thank God we are all aware that claims posted on an internet board are not reflective of real life, and are merely hypotheticals that people publish for the sake of education!

Son of Loki's picture

When you subtract all the Chinese Looter Money Launderers that are now being snapped up by the PRC Global Police Force and subtract the thousands of unemployed energy folks, the market will finally correct despite the forceful NIRP'ing and Fed Jawboning and Subprime'ing and NAR BS'ing.

 

Almost every Yute I've talked to has no desire to even look at buying a house these days. This decline will accelerate as negative momo builds.

hmn's picture

Buy the dip.  Fed and ECB have your back.  Easy money.

fowlerja's picture

Wait...the NAR really wants the best for us...they are always thinking in a positive tone...if housing prices decline..then all the houses sold on low cost no down payments would be in trouble..if defaults occur..then the whole country is in trouble..this would start a recession..depression in housing which would devastate this country...so you see the NAR is trying to prevent this from happening...they are such nice people..

Son of Loki's picture

Too late. The private sector middle class has been decimated.

 

No recovery in sight for at least a generation.

 

Sorry. Please turn off the light on your way out.

 

Thank you.

Hal n back's picture

whats an average proice for a house. If my house i son a great golf course lot and is in great move in condition with plenty of upgrands, and the house across the street is not on vcourse, not upgrades and not maintained well,

 

there wil be a price difference. if he sells his last month for 600k and I sell mine the next months for 900k, and these are the only 2 homes in the US sold, thats a 50% price increase.

If I sell mine last month for 900 then he sells his for 600, thats a 33% decline. .

 

thats two issues. the % computation 50 vs 33, and then the lack of simuilar homes being sold.

 

the other one is if you buy a house to rehab and you buy it for 300k and then add 200k, and sell it for 600k, thats a 100% increase.

 

there are so many ways to play games with the data.

steveharless's picture

When is the best time to buy a house?

WHEN YOU FIND IT! 

 

Expat's picture

I know this blog often has humorous and sarcastic posts, but NRA pronouncements are so ready made for the Onion that it's hard to tell if you are being serious or not.

That said, I can't imagine that the 3700 people living in North and South Dakota are really making a massive difference to national housing. Furthermore, I would posit that given the number of jobs lost in oil versus the net wealth effect from lower oil prices would have a positive effect on housing.  Of course, I actually studied economics and traded oil in the real world, not the modern, Central Bank driven "markets" we have today.

In a similar vein, the French news just reported on basement apartments in London (they are not merely converting but also digging under existing buildings).  The reason for high house prices in London is apparently "lack of housing".  No mention of ZIRP, Russians, The City, or money laundering. 

 

Ah, fuck it.  Think I will just have a beer.

gimme soma dat's picture

Zillow is trying desperately to conquor NAR and sooner or later it will succeed.  The internet has made realtors irrevelant and there are many companies out there looking to step up.  

Sometimes's picture

Is this true?  Looks more like they take ads and make referals for realtors, they make the job easier for the realtor but the commission rates seem the same as pre-zillow. 

db51's picture

Just returned from Chicago area suburbs and it is wall to wall new construction everywhere you look....huge 6-10K sq ft McMansions....New Beemers, Mercedes, SUV's bumper to bumper.      Malls packed as well as restaurants.....No housing crisis there.

 

SmittyinLA's picture

real estate fraud can run a long time

SmittyinLA's picture

When housing crashed in Palmdale CA (desert) for the _____time in 50 years they blamed it on high oil prices