Recession Looms As Dallas Fed Manufacturing Contracts 11th Month In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture

Following Milwaukee Fed weakness, Dallas Fed Manufacturing printed -4.9 (better than expectations of -10 and up from October's -12.7). This is the 11th monthly contraction (sub-50) in the index, something not seen outside of a recession. Prices paid and received tumbled, wages dropped and new orders contracted once again but number of employees and average workweek both jumped? Despite all the promises from former Dallas Fed Fisher, it appears the economy is not so diversified after all.



New orders and new orders growth rates remain in contraction... so it's kind of odd that the workweek surged?


Of course, hope leads the way with the 6 months outlook jumping to its highest since July.


Charts: Bloomberg

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wmbz's picture

Jack Yellen sez... we need moar data, damn it!

No rate hike for you!

clooney_art's picture

Like we didn't see that coming.

Rate hike will be in October of 2016 just before the elections.

silverer's picture

Elections?  Under martial law during a state of emergency?

BullyBearish's picture

The fed and their friends are already prepared for the rest of us to take our medicine...the party's over, they're draining the swamp, the game is rigged, the next chapter will not be so fun...

847328_3527's picture

Main Street private sector middle class has been straddling a depression/recession fo ryears now with stagnant wages and recently massive layoffs.


So maybe the "recession" the author is addressing is trickling up?

graneros's picture

Not to worry once Turkey closes the Bosphorous and WWIII starts no one will worry about a silly ol' recession.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Using the standard rules of bullshit, that's not a swamp, but a future paradise. All we need is for the Fed to print up another huge buttload of money to hand out to the right people, which means, not us.....

herkomilchen's picture

More data, definitely more data.  Definitely.  [Rainman]

you enjoy myself's picture

The Fed is not raising rates this month.  All that's missing so far is a taper tantrum into 12/16. 

dimwitted economist's picture

Stop Talking Doom and Gloom!


We've been in a HUGE Recovery since 2009'

So Get out there and Spend!

It's Fucking Christmas Time!!!!!

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Absolutely, no more doom and gloom when we have so much death and destruction available......

El Hosel's picture

Is there anybody left in the world that would give a shit if the Fed did grow some nuts and raise a 1/4? ..... Yeah, thats what I thought.... Crying wolf for years and rigging the markets to respond to "the story", such a neat trick it never gets old.

SillyWabbits's picture

To Janet:

When Goal Seeking formulations are used, data often conforms to goals sought.

Question: What are the goals the FED is seeking?

Fed Algorithms Department

two hoots's picture


Goals?  To continue to rape the US by using the US Treasury and the IRS to laundry fiat currency into real earned income currency.

ebworthen's picture

The depression never ended, and it only took $11+ Trillion of debt to prop Wall Street and punish plebeians for 7 years.

That's Trillion with a "T", as in Titanic debt, as in 1 Trillion = 1,000,000 Millions = un-payable and unsustainable.

Debt Ponzi pyramid, a "recovery" built on pillars of salt, a house of cards built with people's lives.

Hang the banksters!  Draw-and-quarter the Satanic mammon-lusters of N.Y. & D.C.!

PrimalScream's picture

Not a surprise.  but this Recession will hit Americans very hard.  Many households have no money in their Savings account.

And this global recession, maybe an ongoing Global Depression, will be devastating to emerging markets ... eapecially South America and Central America.  Central Bankers need to take a reality pill ... loose monetary policy will only hasten disastrous consequences now. 

silverer's picture

"Many households have no money in their Savings account".  Savings? Many households don't have any room left on their credit card.

xyzcracker's picture

Go out and spend you scrums.

hmn's picture

Buy the dip.  Fed and ECB have your back.  Easy money.

corporatewhore's picture

YOY sales at my firm have decreased by almost 20%.   Phone volume indicating interest in purchasing product off 25% YOY.

Even reducing prices substantially has not increased sales since most competitors sell garbage but the average consumer is broke.  Price trumps quality in this environment.


Have noticed at the second job that business is also down despite the pricing of gasoline (based on my average closing register tape over the last month).

Information is anecdotal but judging from other business I've surveyed stopping into the gas station, their business is down also.

Jethro's picture

If you don't mind my asking, what industry are you in?

corporatewhore's picture

glass for buildings, autos, other items

silverer's picture

Business should pick up when the riots start.

Jethro's picture

Thanks! I'm in civil infrastructure, so there is probably a little overlap, and it's just interesting to see more anecdotal information.

rsnoble's picture

BS. Citi said no recessions before 2027.

Fuck the FED. Fuck the gov't. Fuck the banks. And Fuck Ben. 

moonmac's picture

There’s no way in hell the Fed is raising rates! Last time it felt like a slow festering slog towards recession, but this crash will come quickly and brutally. A rate hike is just the thing needed to start it.

bankonzhongguo's picture

It's genuinely worth everyone's time to uncover your county's economic data over the last 10 years (longer).

I ran my California county's econ data looking for number of businesses registered, sales taxes collected, gross payrolls, population growth and anything else I could find that was easy to digest. 8th grade math stuff - no rocket science.

I looked at data from 2003 to 2013.  This tried to normalized the crazy real estate bubbles and also attempted to compensate for the crash in the official employment in 2009-2010.

With all of that the result is;

A net 5+% drop in registered business licenses

A de minimus increase in sales tax revenue.

Payrolls increases over 25% over the decade, but compared to a 26.6% increase in prices from inflation (again only using official gov data no mind to U3 verses U6) you found a net loss to household income for people that actually worked. You can call it a 1% loss or a 5% loss in recent gains.

This is all with a gross 15% increase in estimated population. Won't go into the demographic change.

You can parse the data all you like, but a 5% net contraction in business activity over 10 years against a 15% rise in population. The only job growth has been in government services - education and welfare and all the tax revenue is a net loss on inflation too - dangerous when you consider the rising portion of pension/benefit obligations.

It would be different if there was some business sector coming to the rescue (other than cannabis?), put the trend down the rat hole continues.

All areas are different, but in the spirit of knowing what the hell is going on in your home town you better start paying attention to these details because I can assure you the elected people and the deep state wonks don't know what's going on.

Good luck to everybody.


Jethro's picture

I think what you uncovered, and detailed here, is a general trend.