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Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Forecast From 2.3% To Just 1.4% In Under One Week
Less than a week ago, following the latest deteriorating US data, we noted that the Atlanta Fed had slashed its Q4 GDP forecast from a reasonable 2.3% to 1.8%. Then, earlier today, after the latest recessionary data from the US manufacturing sector, we expected further cuts to be imminent from the Federal Reserve which unlike its peers, actually has an accurate track record of predicting GDP growth.
Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP update to drop to mid-1%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 1, 2015
We were not disappointed, and moments ago the GDPNow website announced that the latest model forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 has now tumbled to a paltry 1.4 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 25. "The decline occurred this morning after the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau."
The Atlanta Fed is now nearly 50% below the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 2.5%
We are not sure when the last time the Fed started a tightening cycle with a 1.4% GDP baseline, but we are confident we will have to go quite far back in time to find the answer.
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The truth is that in real terms GDP has been negative for quite some time...
especially in the E.Z.
Due to this utterly shocking and unexpected, completely out of the blue occurence (or is it that the Patriots lost this weekend)...say goodbye to the rate hike.
Even if we were kind and gave the GDP 2% for technological improvements, we can't muster a 2. Amen, we have been in a long time. I find the investment banker and the fed to be chiefly at fault.
Whatever. We will never again see two negative numbers in consecutive quarters so we'll never have to say that awful "R" word ever again. *puts fingers in ears* I can't hear you! LALALALALALALA!
Damned Atlanta FED keeps injecting reality into the fairy tale......
Sell the bonds!! Risk on!
Wait...what?
Wait...I live in the Atlanta area and have yet to see one snowflake fall?!? Must be a whiteout in the 5 day forecast and they are just getting ahead of the curve.
Anything White and living in atlanta is an oxymoron.
I have been fortunate to live all around this great land and have property in numerous states. During a real social uprising and revolution of great chaos and given the choice of being stuck in Southern California or North Georgia, I would feel a bit safer among the former Vets I know in the latter.
Liberal zealots really do embody a special kind of stupid. Southern California reminds me of the Soviet Union in the 80's, before things went to shit. There was an "official" price for things, and then the reality of the black market...
What does 4th quater GDP have to do with Socal? What black market are you referring to? Idjit
This seems like a far more likely explanation for the emergency Fed meeting -- all the leading indicators are going negative hard.
That's what you get with your strong dollar.
If you like your dollar you can keep your dollar.
Now THIS is bullish for stawks!!
Only a 100kt airburst over Manhattan isn't at this point.
Zimbabwe , here we are.
Zimbabwe will look like chump change Winston. This time it's global Weimar!
Could be a while yet.
Then you don't know Zimbabwe (I still prefer the old name, sounds so much better).
weimar was no better.
No, that would be bullish also, just think of the shovel-ready jobs that would create!
Let's recap: Possible interest rate hike by the Fed is bullish. Possible interest rate punt by the Fed is bullish.
Ahh.
DEPRESSION CAUSED BY TPTB MOTHER FUCKERS
Transitory
So you are saying you need another terror attack to make new highs?
If you get more spam then customer emails you might be in a recession.
Now there's a shocker.
Please Jumbo Jet Janet keep the Fed Easy Money flowing to Wall Street! The huge gap between the Have’s and Have-Not’s isn’t wide enough yet!
Due to this shocking forecast (or is it that the Patriots lost this weekend)...say goodbye to the rate hike.
Walking it down so as not to disturb the sheeple
Looks like we may have liftoff... For moar QE!
Once the market digests the non-rate-hike event, how long (weeks or months) do you think the 'honeymoon' this time around will last until the Fed has to get serious (QE-4)...?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO37Ql91qqM
I think they will be slashing their forecast again very soon! Here are my thoughts on the subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8kLV-H1Yqk
What is wrong with the Fed?
Part of the problem is the failed Fed inflation target.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/11/fed-inflation-target-is-abnormal/
QE was working until 2011 when the Fed did not have the guts to cut it off.
The US could have had a different monetary policy and a different result.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/27/the-kelley-monetary-policy-rule/
Bullshit. There is plenty of inflation in anything that is required for a decent standard of living, period. In addition, plenty of inflation in equities. Finally, by definition, inflation is in fact an increase in the total money supply, which has been fucking exponential!
However, the majority of that new money has not reached the real economy and has only spun around in small banking/financial circles.
No matter, the world has seen the outcome of such "let the majority eat cake" monetary experiments. This one will have the same outcome, eventually.
Market obviousy anticpating more badder is gooder
1/4 pt hike, then 20 minutes later a 1/2 point cut to NIRP
QE4ever? QE4folks? QE4people? QE4mainstreet?
Take your pick... coming soon to a central bank near you.