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This Chart Is Too Ugly For Comfort
Submitted by Bryce Coward via Gavekal Capital blog,
It’s quite easy to get carried away with the drawing of conclusions based on a few technical chart patterns (and we are not doing that here!), but this chart is just too ugly to at least go unmentioned.
What we’re looking at is the percent of stocks in our own Gavekal Capital International DM Americas Index that are at least 10% off of their 200-day high. A stunning 55% of DM Americas stocks are at least 10% from their 200-day high while the DM Americas Index is hovering just below its all time high.
More interesting than the absolute number of stocks trading lower than 10% from their high (blue line) is the quite significant and growing divergence from the index level (red line).
Specifically, this tells us that there has been a marked deterioration in market breadth that is about two years in the making. Needless to say, this is not good. Usually we like markets in which most stocks are participating in upward price movements.
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Let the big reset begin!!
Here we go...
I can't tell what that is. Is that The O giving me the finger?
I dunno. That line looks like it's recovered quite a bit from 65% (astoundingly bad) a few months ago to 55% (merely awful) in the last few months.
Recession over. Go about your business.
Nothing says Happy Holidays like hookers and blow...
Party on.
I feel the animal spirits rising up in me...
Fear is gone and greed is reigning supreme...
Oh wait, it's just the coffee...
;-D
Actually, NoDebt, you are looking at the wrong axis. It was more like 95% (not 65%) earlier in the year.
Time to Buy!!!
guess we are getting all time highs before the year end on the indicies
You will know things are really bad when Obama goes missing for a week and and the only footage the propaganda press shows of him is canned video and photos from a year old golfing vacation. Followed by John Kerry, the Clintons, Buffet and other notables vanishing from the air. Spikey lined graphs won't do you much good then.
You really think those folks will get raptured?
Not raptured. They'll be hiding in their luxury bunkers, until the peons they brought along to serve them figure out who's gonna eat and who ain't when the pickings get slim.
You'll know it's really bad when.. the dual-citizens jump ship.
Burn.
Soooo, BTFD..., got it!
That chart is Hillary.
The boy who cried wolf is now a grandpa.
I think what this really is, is a lesson in greed and a call for repentance... not Lloyd Blankfein's god's work.
Everything's great. Move along, please. In other news Obama fixed everything.
-Argenta
does this mean "double-down" or "double-dong" ?
It depends, is there another ObamaCare Sleepove at the WH wth Kal Penn and Reggie Love this weekend?
Double double, toil and trouble.
We need Obama to wave his magic hand ..... shovel ready bitches..
The Breadth hath no breath
gotta be climate change.
wow that chart is like two totally not correlated indexes
Black Swan song.....the high notes.
Poor breadth has everybody worried except those who are buying FA(A)NG and holding. Once FA(A)NG goes, everything goes.
Viva la QQQ's!!!...lol.
The red line is the blood trail where the muppets were dragged off.
Irrelevant, again, no spoon motherfuckers.
It's simple.
Apple merges with Facebook, Google, and Amazon. Then Apple makes everything on the planet and we only have one stock to trade.
Yes Netflix will have to go out of business since Appookgazon will provide all the streaming content anyone would need, but a small price to pay to have ONE COMPANY FOR ALL!!!!
Unlimted upside potential.
This is a truly brilliant and revolutionary idealism.
Do not be surprised if you soon receive a visit from an alphabet agency any day now to be kind-of-forcefully recruited to a CP team.
This positive, progressive, forward-thinking, non-defeatist, bullish attitude will take you to the highest levels of our revered central planning echelons. Bernanke, Yellen, and Krugman will worship you as a diety.
Mark my words!
Maybe down is the new up?
If you overlay this chart with a unicorn, it makes it all better.
Great, we're in the third recession in seven years and this time, it's not official, so it doesn't get reported and nobody notices (or cares).
Recessions, however, in the context of a multi-decade depression, don't count.
So, BYE STAWKS.
(silver still on sale)
OK, now you are just fucking with me.
The chart has bad beadth. Perhaps it needs more mouthwash spiked with more stimulant and propagander. Howeevr, it is rotting from the inside out- breadth that taste like shit.
I don't know who's EKG that is but damn man - just die already!
Logged in just to upvote you. That was funny!
Divergent.
Boosh's fault
I think all these billions spent on "climate change" are going into stuffing the cracks in the wall on Wall Street.
What else explains why we haven't seen our regularly scheduled financial armageddon at this point?
Interestingly, the article from last night, "http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/4-telltale-signs-credit-cycle-t..." shows a divergence between the S&P 500 and interest rates on high-yield bonds that looks amazingly similar, and also got really out of whack in mid-2014.
Looks to me like we can pin our Recession as having started about 18 months ago. Which is when it really started feeling weird in general. I think it's roughly analagous to how weird things started feeling in late 2006/2007.
I know in my business, which involves niche services to large corporate marketing departments, it's a cycle like a sine wave. Things peaked in 1986, then crashed in 1987. Got better by 1990, just in time to slow way down. Started recovering around 1993, went nuts until about 1999. The months after 9/11 were the bottom of the trough. 2006-2008 was the fever-crazed frenzy top. 2009 was the crash trough. Just now revisiting 2006-2008 crazy boom. So I'm expecting a crash within a year. Timing, of course, is a bitch and if I could do that, I wouldn't be commenting under a fake name at a fringe blog like some digital dickweed.
But we're starting to see diverse data points lining up to tell us the same things. That got going in earnest in mid-2007, in my recollection. Buckle up, Gents.
The up-n-down charts are pure unadulterated BS anyway, so they don't mean a thing. During '08 when the govamint was saying low or no food inflation (IIRC they were sayn' abt 2%?) I was out in the grocery stores every month with MY "market basket" tracking 25 - 30% food inflation.
Even "Shadow Stats" wasn't getting close to the real world.
You're certainly right about food inflation. I remember that too. While it's mellowed somewhat, it hasn't stopped. Another way inflation stats are rigged is by leaving out fees. OK, maybe the cost per kilowatt of electricity hasn't changed much, but now I have myriad "connection fees" etc. that I never used to have. The cost of having electrical service to my house is what I care about, and that cost goes up even as my usage goes down. I recently had an argument with a customer service person at the cellphone company, because they kept saying my service cost $140 a month when it costs nearly $180. "Oh, well we can't price in taxes and fees." Oh, yeah? You manage to figure it out when I get the bill...
That was always my counter-argument to the Shadowstats deniers, too. People would squawk in disbelief that the US had roughly 25% unemployment, if measured the way we used to measure unemployment before Reagan and then Clinton re-jimmied the formulas to "end" recessions. They'd call Shadowstats "Doomer Porn," etc. But as you say, even they undermeasured actual costs people pay in the real world.
this chart is more accurate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djItGln6IxY