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It's Official (Again): The Current "Recovery" Is Worse Than The Great Depression's
In a perfectly timed update to his infamous April 2009 "worse then The Great Depression" chart, Kevin O'Rourke has unveiled his latest chart-du-poor. With US manufacturing collapsing, bond yields tumbling, and The Fed about to hike rates to prove they can, this so-called 'recovery' has fallen below that following The Great Depression. As O'Rourke sums up, "pretty dismal stuff. Let’s hope that we can at least avoid the famous 1937-38 double dip."
In 2009, things looked dire... with the crash in industrial production outpacing that of The Great Depression...
In 2010, thanks to unprecedented reflationary policies, everything was awesome...
(but by the end of the year, and as O'Rourke puts it "reflation turned to austerity in Europe, and the global recovery slowed, to the point where at times it seemed to be petering out almost altogether.")
Which brings us to today - In August of 2015, the inevitable happened: our current recovery was overtaken by that of the interwar period. "Pretty dismal stuff," as O'Rourke opines.
Concluding, rather ominously, "Let’s hope that we can at least avoid the famous 1937-38 double dip, visible at the end of the interwar series."
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Yep, all hail Obozo's wonderful economy...
But don't tell his sycophant MSM...
They're too busy convincing the sheeple all is great...
And after The One... Cankles will continue the Manna from Heaven!
It is no Great Depression for the Cerberus hedge fund, which has found a way to buy about $20 billion in distressed assets in Europe (including the Northern Rock mortgage portfolio in the UK) and pay next to nothing in taxes. For 6 of its European companies, Cerberus had income of $375 million and paid $17,000 in taxes. Cerberus has one subsidiary make a high interest loan to another subsidiary and writes the interest cost off to dodge taxes. Government tax regulators are silent on this self dealing.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/loan-system-is-paying-off-for-cerberus-1.2445150
The Dutch companies loan money to their Irish subsidiaries at high interest rates, ensuring that most of the cash generated here flows back to the Netherlands in the form of repayments. The result is that while the Republic-registered companies are handling billions of euro, they pay only minimal amounts of tax as the interest eats up any potential profits.
Accounts and other filings show that Cerberus uses the same structure across all its Irish Promontoria subsidiaries. The companies hold assets bought in this country or elsewhere in Europe, mostly in Britain but also in Germany and Scandinavia.
Figures provided by six of the companies – the others are not yet due to report – show that they generated income of about €350 million last year and paid interest of €245 million. Operating costs and other charges, such as writing down the value of some assets, ate up most of the rest. The six Cerberus companies combined paid about €15,500 in tax last year.
Tax collected in the Irish state is not respent in the state.
Look at the national Irish accounts.
Ireland is a conduit at a deeper level, the multinationals have favoured status but this is only a observation of the peeking order.
The apex is of course the people who hold the monopoly of credit .
The "cycle of investment " increasing again is in reality the cycle of waste production
It's important to understand that there is no housing crisis in Ireland.
There never was a housing crisis in Ireland.
There is a epic purchasing power crisis.
Irish people cannot afford to buy the existing stock, the role of the consumer war economy is to build more and more thus sustaining the scarcity system
240,000~ houses are empty in Ireland
Enough to house a million people.
Yet people cannot afford to buy.
This is because there was a net extraction of 4,500+ euro per man woman and child in 2014, it likely to be near 5,000 euro per person this year.
You could not even give out private credit at 0% interest and expect it back under such circumstances....
Even today private credit to residents remains negative for obvious reasons creating this present purchasing power crisis.
Irish people can only earn income from wasteful mercantalism, it's a return of 19TH CENTURY econmics.
.x
"There never was a housing crisis in Ireland"... followed by "240,000~ houses are empty in Ireland" ?
The banks became bankrupt because of a lack of scarcity (they can only function using scarcity methods)
But is not a real physical shortage so therefore its not a real problem.
Its a financial problem.
My solution at the time was to give free stuff away for free (What Jesus would do under the circumstances) and transfer the deposits to the post office.
Given that domestic private credit to real Irish residents remain negative after 7 years I was proven correct.
What He may be trying to say is teh Banks in Ireland keep the NPL Inventory Off the Market when the market is slow or not moving such as to maintain price levels. It is scarcity theory. I have no personal knowledge of Ireland but i damn sure do USSA and the TBTF WS Banks and their wholly-owned US FedRes ARE THE eCONomy in the Fascist USSA.
It's not Obozo's economy. It's the corporations' economy. Did Obozo tell them to shift their operations to Asia? It's apple's, Pfizer's, monsanto's, Chevron's economy. The Obozos are just providing you with theatre so the corporations can do behind the curtains what they like.
Social credit theory is different from Marxist theory as it rejects the labour theory of value amongst other things Wages add to companies cost just as energy , rent , debt on capex etc. It must recover these costs through sales. In a capitalist economy this is typically done via increased wages. Rising wages however drive globalization (the escape from costs). , but this adds further to capex and distribution costs. Leading to a eventual implosion of demand as the demand signal is false. Only a increase in non wage income ( the national dividend which does not add to production costs ) can create a viable equilibrium
"hey guys, watch me drill this down!"
This time really is different, though... if it weren't, it would've collapsed by now. It's different because TPTB have so many tentacles now, it'll take a new "something" that we haven't noticed yet... it'll happen, but I'm not sure we've recognized what it'll be.
TELL IT !
Americans like the ever so docile Japenese are just going through the motions of living, stumbling through the fog in search of a door to the past.
Zero Hedge: Because who needs a y-axis label?
No y. Just a 24 hour zzzzzzz.
Fucking this. RIGHT HERE. You're my spirit animal.
Meh, nothing a good war killing a few billion people can't fix. War fixes everything. Just ask the peace prize winner. No not Krugman (although he will support this notion), but the other asshole who has us on the cusp of WWIII.
Paitience
Remember unemployment didn't really start coming down until late 1940 into 1941 when war production was really ramping up. The banksters don't forget this stuff and that's why they love war so much. Gotta keep the masses ignorant to the real devils behind the masks.
Well to be fair you can't compare the two with relief pitchers and the modern diets and all of course anything now is going to outdo things back then.
Too many different factors ... the dismantling of America was already going on full blast by the late 1990s, only the temporary Internet bubble of 1999-2000 hid the longer downtrend.
So many of today's metrics are bogus ...
... but I guess the "safety net" is a lot bigger, too.
There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone.
"Hold my beer"
*hikes rates
I think we're all being managed by people who don't know what the fuck to do.
There is no mastermind session or round table where they talk things out and skittles and rainbows come flying out the conference room door.
Imagine the conversation where it goes something like this.
Some guy "Ok I think I have it, I have a way to solve everything a whole new way to structure economics, money and banking, work, capital, it's all going to be awesome no one needs to work, poverty is solved, we can go all Star Trek on it and eveyrone will work because they love it so much but we really don't even need them to work the computers will do all that."
That same guy "Oh yeah and there really isn't a need for any of us to control or lord over anything or anyone anymore we're obsolete too!"
Same guy again from the floor "Hey....HEY.... NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.....gurgle gurgle..."
Some OTHER guy "Anyone want a smoke break?"
i wrote a reply about a war pulling us out of this depression, it took me about 45 minutes of thought. when i posted it some glitch made it disappear so in short, it will not. our country has become a beast described by orwell and huxley. same beast different views. and this poem perfectly describes the beast motion.
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
SLOUCHING COMES MODERN MAN, AND ALL HIS MEANESS
Well it looks like the National Socialists and their War on White People (WWP) is winning.
There is little differrence between the National Socialists we fought in WWII and those of today except the target today is the White Race. Shortly the Write Race will wake up and get in the fight as what future historians will call WWP.
Had a business trip to chicago and saw this late teen, early 20 girl sitting down with a sign bundled in a jacket begging.
Begging in the city has become more pronounced these days, Obama's city is becoming more 3rd world like daily,
Way more beggers than I saw in an earlier visit.
Come on, turn that frown, er Chart upside down.
Mmm, it's still bad.
I think the present double dip will be way worse than 1937-38. Here is why:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8kLV-H1Yqk
The Irish economy blog is inhabited by that strange middle management Jesuit class that so infests Irish society.
No Franciscans need apply
The choice is between Industrial depression and real human consumption.
These evil people have chosen the consumer war economy above the ghost of Christmas present
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zTac69I7Co0
The above IIea video tells us of much of the middle management thinking
Alan Dukes gives off all the vibes of a local mason.
Never do these guys consider we must use existing capacity first
The rate of usury is increasing in Ireland again
In 2014 a cool 21 billion 100 million euros of tax collected was not respent.
This is over half of the total tax take.
This adds to the cost of all items be it directly via Vat or indirectly via income tax ( the increased wages that firms must then supply also adds to costs)
We are living inside a epic production / consumption crisis.
Austerity is the rationing process required to feed this consumer war economy and has been going on for a very long time.
Irish private car energy consumption.
1990 : 926 ktoe. (this was after a 2 year private car boom in 89 and 90 so Irish energy consumption in this sector as sub 900 ktoe for much of the 80s depression.)
2008 : 2,131 ktoe (peak)
It began to decline in 2009 and 2010.
2010 : 2039 ktoe (trough)
In late 2010 we had a bailout of the consumer war economy so energy waste again began to increase from this time period.
2011 : 2,073
2012 : 2,088
2013 :2,113
2014 : 2,122
A major increase in car purchases was seen in 2015 so Irish energy consumption in this sector will spike to 2,200ktoe~ , well past its 2008 peak.
Austerity can be defined as basic rationing to make living space for the war or consumer war economy.
In today’s consumer war economy cars have simply replaced tank production / consumption.
Ireland is the extreme end of liberal (usury ) economics but much of this will be replicated in other euro conduit jurisdictions in good time.
In many respects the Spanish economy is very much alike.
The euro car boom of 2015 has further eroded basic living standards in Europe.
Its a simple question of who gets to eats the energy pies,
Humans or cars.
In euroland cars are the first citizens.
Irish private car energy consumption.
1990 : 926 ktoe. (this was after a 2 year private car boom in 89 and 90 so Irish energy consumption in this sector as sub 900 ktoe for much of the 80s depression.)
2008 : 2,131 ktoe (peak)
It began to decline in 2009 and 2010.
2010 : 2039 ktoe (trough)
In late 2010 we had a bailout of the consumer war economy so energy waste again began to increase from this time period.
2011 : 2,073
2012 : 2,088
2013 :2,113
2014 : 2,122
A major increase in car purchases was seen in 2015 so Irish energy consumption in this sector will spike to 2,200ktoe~ , well past its 2008 peak.
Austerity can be defined as basic rationing to make living space for the war or consumer war economy.
In today’s consumer war economy cars have simply replaced tank production / consumption.
Ireland is the extreme end of liberal (usury ) economics but much of this will be replicated in other euro conduit jurisdictions in good time.
In many respects the Spanish economy is very much alike.
The euro car boom of 2015 has further eroded basic living standards in Europe.
Its a simple question of who gets to eats the energy pies,
Humans or cars.
In euroland cars are the first citizens.
If you just look at the brewing industry you will observe how strange the supply chain has become. Beer is a high volume , high weight game of distribution. Historically it was a local industry , never transnational or even national. This is not the case today. Why is this ? Something is wrong with the demand signal. Something very very wrong. If you observe the Irish energy balance figures in detail you will see major differences between pre and post Maastricht energy balances. In particular the amount of energy required for distribution (transport) relative to TFC. The Irish economy went into major crisis between 2005-08. At this point transport exceeded 40% of total TFC , reaching a peak of 43 % in 2007. Irish energy balance is again pushed beyond 40% of TFC ,( increased aviation , private car and road freight) The crisis is artificial and is a result of extreme usury.
Irish fuel consumption road freight
1990 : 346 ktoe.
I happen to remember 1990 , the pubs were full , no shortage of beer or tokens to buy the stuff.
2007 : 1,145 ktoe (peak euro demand) , much of these inputs went into construction but more basic supply distribution patterns changed.
Most notably the discontinuation of rail beer transport in 2005.
2013 : 581ktoe (trough)
2014 : 621ktoe (Irish recovery ?)
Not really.
A increase in GDP yes ,but not recovery (the pubs remain empty)
What we are seeing is a increase in euro waste production
From a finance perspective a increase in transport friction aids financial concentration as the goods cannot get to market effectively.
OK , I am Irish and am using the beer thingy to illustrate the problem.
But if the monetary system was working effectively the pubs nearest the brewery would be extremely busy places.
But they are not.
The waste present in the current euro supply chain is epic.
Irish fuel consumption road freight
1990 : 346 ktoe.
I happen to remember 1990 , the pubs were full , no shortage of beer or tokens to buy the stuff.
2007 : 1,145 ktoe (peak euro demand) , much of these inputs went into construction but more basic supply distribution patterns changed.
Most notably the discontinuation of rail beer transport in 2005.
2013 : 581ktoe (trough)
2014 : 621ktoe (Irish recovery ?)
Not really.
A increase in GDP yes ,but not recovery (the pubs remain empty)
What we are seeing is a increase in euro waste production
From a finance perspective a increase in transport friction aids financial concentration as the goods cannot get to market effectively.
OK , I am Irish and am using the beer thingy to illustrate the problem.
But if the monetary system was working effectively the pubs nearest the brewery would be extremely busy places.
But they are not.
The waste present in the current euro supply chain is epic.
You can look right back to the pre and post phase Suez crisis in Irish economic accounts to understand how the money monopolists operate in a petro economy.
The data makes very clear what these guys are up too.
They wish to increase the friction of distribution so as to aid financial concentration.
It's a industrial sysphian system of control
The objective of the game is not consumption
It's to create ever increasing amounts of waste.
A aware peasant with real.grounding in life understands the system.
EconomiSt's such as the above pretend they do not but I think the fellow above does indeed understand
He pleads ignorance so as to keep his company tokens.
In a recent lecture he mentioned depreciation and its significance but did not follow his train of thought.
Not sure 'bout Ireland but in the Fascist USSA, its' just another LBO Rollup to concentrate all assets in 9 Public USSA MultiNational Corps only this time it is already at such levels as to make the Rockefellers, Goulds, Vanderbuilts and Carnegies blush.