This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Looney Plunges As Canadian GDP Collapses Most Since 2009
Who could have seen that coming? It appears, for America's northern brethren, low oil proces are unequivocally terrible. Against expectations of a flat 0.0% unchanged September, Canadian GDP plunged 0.5% - its largest MoM drop since March 2009 and the biggest miss since Dec 2008. With Canada's housing bubble bursting, it's time for the central planners to get back to work and re-invigorate the massive mal-invesment boom (and ban pawning of luxury goods).
In the past year, we have extensively profiled the collapse of ground zero of Canada's oil industry as a result of the plunge in the price of oil, in posts such as the following:
- "Canada Crude Contagion: Calgary Home Prices Drop Most In 2 Years"
- "Canada's Biggest Oil Casualty To Date: Calgary's Nexen Shutters Oil Trading Desk"
- "The Canadian Housing Bubble Has Begun To Burst"
- "Canada's Oil Patch Confidence Crashes"
- "Canada Mauled by Oil Bust, Job Losses Pile Up – Housing Bubble, Banks at Risk"
- "The Stage Is Set For A Massive Housing Market Correction in Canada's Oilpatch"
Since then it has gotten far, far worse for Canada... GDP is down 0.5% MoM (and unchanged YoY - the worst since Nov 09)
The initial reaction is a tumbling looney...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 95 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Interesting choice of bird to adorn the Canadian 1 dollar coin, one that dives down steeply into water for its food. Loon also describes anyone who pays any attention to anything Canadians have to say, EH?
... Looney Plunges??? ;-)
I gotta get me a new plunger... ;-)
Looney
Who could have seen that coming?
Now, that is exactly how I was hoping that you would open up this article based upon its title!
Wait, I can't remember today if it is better when currencies go up or when they go down...
Loonie has been going down since I started stacking. The cost averaging of my stack remains flat in us dollar terms.
Notice how I spelled loonie, eh?
The New Boy Wonder Trodeau, Spending like Druncken sailor +++ Many Billions, Bringing 25K Syrians By Charter Plane By Feb...AS PROMISED IN ELECTION..
Does He Want 50 Cent Dollar ???
I'd like a 50 cent CDN dollar. If it goes there soon, I'll go pick up a couple thou in cash for my trip to NS next summer.
My own little, personal forex hedge.
.50 would almost make gas affordable for a drive. It would be roughly the same in USD as we are paying right now $1.85
last quarter GDP for Canada was an improvement.... it was just the 1 bad month
hey, not saying it's good but ummmm technically this quarter was better than last quarter. weird to single out the single month so much.
and "canada's housing bursitng" is just... incredibly disengenious. VAN and TO are still growing almost double digits, annualized, per quarter ! lol so 1 city crashing = canada.... come now guys =p
I converted all my CAD to USD in July of 2014 - it's been a nice ride, I hope we're just getting started ;)
Buh Bitcoin!!!!!!
How much longer can it grow at double digits with flat incomes? The rent is already too high!
incomes have been flat so long now that it's clear they're not a major variable anyhow
"lol so 1 city crashing = Canada"
You live in a community; the houses in the next street are on fire; soon the ones across the street are smouldering; but yours is in no danger because the Chinese fire brigade is coming to buy it out. Good luck with that.
your problem is you think canada housing in any way represents a community
Vancouver has more in common with Arcadia California than Calgary
People Buying HOUSES As protection against plunging paper CDN Fiats...
PS... The US runs much higher Deficit, Same Fate Down Da Road...
Looney, stop going down on me!!!
Looney Tunes - That's all folks.
The Loon
http://youtu.be/LwWHk8azaAc
That coming from a resident of a country with a bald eagle. A bird quite happy to scavenger rotting carcases. So fuck you. But yes there are a lot of delusional people here who think that real estate can never go down. Vancouver and Toronto are definitely in a bubble. Watch out below if mainland Chinese ever stop trying to get their currency out of china.
Are you suggesting that the bird that your owners chose for your debt slavery makes you superior?
Interesting thought train.
RIPS
No Just throwing bombs back over the wall.
As a Canuck I can only say "I hope the rest of you Canucks prepared for this". It will get much worse. First (and thank you captain obvious) will be the resources getting killed (again). So Alberta, BC, far eastern provs, will get clobbered. Then the malise will spread to manufacturing so Ontario and Quebec will get hit.
At that point the government will try to do something (and fail) because all federal govs get elected or thrown out by central Canada. The rest of the country is window dressing to the politicians.
Of course by then it will be too late. That is what you get for being a colony. Huers of wood and drawers of water.
Speaking as a Canadian and formerly working in Canada's oilpatch (now in gold mining) I can fully asure you that it is the UNITED STATES of AMERICA that is responsible for the over production of oil in the world. To the extent that they let ISIS produce oil too.
Obama's "Energy Independence Plan" (which appears to include ISIS) was clearly a backhanded way for the US to attempt to bankrupt Russia...they will bankrupt Canada. In turn, this act of war was also against Canada. But who gives a dick about Canada, right?
I'm sure I speak for many Canadians when I say that I would happily detonate a nuclear bomb in your White House.
Don't forget who it was that burned down the White House in the war of 1812. It was us.
Whichever retard American it was that wanted to buikld a wall between the US & Canada...elect that cunt. Build your fuckin' wall...it will save us the trouble. Just because we're polite to you doesn't mean you are welcome here.
Speaking to a canadian a few weeks ago that thought the real estate market will never slow down in canada....Idiot
This is mainstream media. You would have wade through a lot of presentations before finding cogent opinions on the housing market:
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=760243
The following chart has been reliable:
http://www.gettingtechnical.com/01_home/market_commentary/can_en.html
As a Canadian, the coming collapse of the Looney is inevitable. I see it going to 50 cents to the US dollar. The reason is simple. The banks in Canada will NEVER allow real estate to fall, why? Simple, doing so would affect their mortgage holdings and therefore their capital and cash flow structure. The banksters and the boyz will never ever allow that. Therefore, in order for real-estate in Canada to match comparables in teh US, the Looney has got to fall, A LOT!
The issue with mortgages in Canada is that they are full recourse, meaning that if you hand over the keys to the bank you can't just walk away from it like you can in most of the US (lending risk is transferred from the banks to the consumers). This is a serious problem because if the RE market crashes then everyone who has any substantial debt will be instantly enslaved by the banks. People may joke about being debt slaves now but that would be deadly to Canada's economy as well. The very protection banks feel they have may also be their utimate undoing as well (ie it's likely that full recourse would make any RE recession far,far worse that it would be otherwise).
Sell short your own house to yourself.
You dont understand in full recourse...theres no sale till the defaulted owner pays it off. If they file BK it may or may not help..but how are you supposed to buy the shortsale after BK and 0 assets left?
RIPS
Then you cover before you default over and over and over.
I would assert that lending your house for a short sale would defer bankruptcy and you would only default if your house price winds up higher than you originally bought it for.
Looney, paging Looney
I am plunging! Damn toilets! ;-)
Looney
So glad that promotion came thru :-)~
any country that puts a looney bird on their coinage is doomed to fail...they do have a lot of oil though.
The bald eagle on the other hand has a diet that is mostly fish and eats both fresh and carrion.
BULLISH!
Canada, also known as the "Maple Leaf State," sure is having some difficulty, eh?
the looney down --> maple syrup exports up
A WIN-WIN!
Canadian gold mining companies in a country that has not yet diversified out of $U.S. into gold.
Yes, yes but as long as we have moral highground, nothing else matters.
ZH, get a clue, canada closes for the winter..of course production is off, they are all in Florida & Arizona.
Every premier, mayor, bureaucrat and dog catcher is in Paris right now on Trudeau's dime, er...I mean the taxpayer's 7.5 cents.
You mean fartcatcher.
I should have said..."every Trudeau, Liberal leg humper".
I would not get caught in public catching Rona Ambrose's 'ambrosia'
What are you talking about? Real estate booms in the winter. That's when the eskimos can get the good ice to build their igloos.
There goes the NHL salary cap down the drain. speaking of. Whatever happened to EMK? LongSoupline? I missed Longsoupline. Could have used him in that Bernake book review last night. Nothing like 20 F bombs on a long Monday night !
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/canadian-economy-returns-to-growth-...
Yet the communist broadcasting company states that GDP is positive and all is well, the "mini recession " is over.
Too much of that high-grade Canadian cannabis was likely smoked over at the CBC and Statscan before they came up with that nonsense.
Toronto has become Shanghai of the West. As long as the Chinese money keeps flowing in, Toronto will keep growing like weeds and Chinese bidding up RE to heights unheard of in the land of the loons. Besides Toronto is now THE hub for the RMB trade in North America. So the Chinese money is a much bigger factor than oil in the health of the Canadian Economy. Oil effects Alberta a great deal but not Ontario as much. People forget that Toronto's main business is money, like Wall Street, and Bay Street has dep pockets and long tentacles that reach far further than just oil. Canada is not a one trcik pony like Saudi Arabia. We have a secret weapon, it's called Chinese money (and Russian and Iranian and ..) A preceived safe haven is much valued in this world and Canada sits atop of the Safe Havens list.
There's very little, if any 'Chinese' money in Toronto. Lots of people willing to leverage their brains out though, aided and abeted by the local banks. $40k "millionaires" douchebags in their BMW's abundant.
There's LOTS of Chinese money in Toronto. You just don't see or hear about it on the surface such as the buying all the real estate as in Vancouver.
There's very little "Chinese" money in Vancouver either. Just like in Toronto, its the locals (many of whom are of Chinese ethnicity because that's the demographic make-up of the Canadian citizen house-buying cohort these days) borrowing their brains out leveraging to the max. Won't end well, and buyers will be in a world of hurt.
With a currency called the "looney" you'd have to be crazy to invest in Canada.
Socialists always spend like there is no tomorrow .... like a bad bitch .... with a shopping problem ?
wtf are you talking about? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/canada-emerges-from-oi... - it actually grew at 2.3% and exports are up by almost 10%
geez, this doomporn is tarting to get old.
"The quarter ended with a monthly contraction of 0.5 percent for September, the largest since March 2009, as fires and maintenance shutdowns interrupted oil production."
Nuts, second sentence of your link. Do you really believe the fires and maintenance story?
The traders saw a negative headline and acted without thinking. The dollar exchange rebounded an hour later, when they took a closer look.
25% of GDP is in real estate. So if. GDP declines, then it's probably due to real estate than oil. Oil contributed to the export surplus.
Canada is commodity based economy - so is Australia -- but the PMI went the other way - hmmmm!
The oil price drop means that other sectors,much as manufacturing become more prominent. Services is the biggest sector, meaning banking.
Actually, Real Estate itself is only 13% of the economy, but still very significant. There are spinnoffs in other trades, services, manufacturing, wholesale and retail. So all totaled, about 20% is close.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gdps04a-eng.htm
I bet Carney is allowing himself a smile.
Actually I'm betting he's pretty pissed he was passed over by the PTB for the top job in Canuckistan. When did Justin work at Goldman after all?
Everyone knows the real reason Carney left the Bank of Canada was because Harper figured out Carney was being groomed by Bay Street to take over the Liberal Party and overthrow Harper, and Harper basically told Carney to jump before he was pushed by Parliament.
(Conservative governments in Canada have occasionally had to cashier central bankers when they gave up the pretense of being anything but a Liberal fifth-columnist. Google "Coyne affair" when you've got a minute.)
The PTB appointed Justin as their figurehead instead, and now Justin is PM, it's pretty clear Carney never will be.
Trudeau will save Canada. Don't worry. Hope and Change. He's an ex bouncer, kung fu master. What can go wrong? (Sarc)
I'm waiting for fisticuffs in parliament. The opposition are all out of shape.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/President_Barack_Oba...
Standard Disclaimer: And in the category of how much of an asshole I am...
Canadian MILFs just do not put out in my double wide gated community. They ride their golf carts right up to you, smile, ask what you are doing, you can even eat cheese and drink relatively good wine with them, they have good taste, almost European, but they are afraid to get down and dirty, they always have a girlfriend next to them as an excuse to drive away. They all seem worried anxious, distracted: I guess I know why now. They are in a recession. A recession would fuck with anyone's sex drive.
priceless post
I had similar experiences and I couldn't put my finger (no pun intended) on why
You may be on to something there.
Don't worry, American MILFs - the few that are not landwhales - don't talk to you, don't acknowledge you, aren't very aware of their surroundings because they have their eyes and ears glued to their devices ALL. THE. FUCKING. TIME.
So, be happy the Canadian snow geese even say hello.
'
'
'
Try hunting something under 63 and you might be more successful.
Those aren't lambs any more, and they're too smart not to see the hungry wolf, peering at them!
•?•
V-V
This data pre-dates the election, and so, you can bet your ass, specially seasonally adjusted by Liberals at Statistics Canada to make Harper's last few months in office look worse than they were.
Q4 and on will be double-triple seasonally adjusted to make the Boy King look good, in gratitude for bringing back the long-firm census. Officially, in Canada's MSM, you won't hear another word about recession.
Unofficially, if you're a white (straight, Christian or Jewish) anglophone, your troubles finding work or keeping the job you have or your business afloat are just beginning.
Thanks Justin.
So only "white straight christian or jewish anglophone" jobs are in jeopardy under Trudeau? got it.
My woman works in retail and she says they're setting record sales, I just shake my head and show her a graph of Canadians spending 163% of their annual incomes. At some point this music will stop I tell her, but then I've been telling her that for the last 6 years. When the SHTF up here it's going to be bad.
"My woman works in retail"
Walmart ? Target collapsed in Canuckland.
My in- law works at a high end clothing/accessories store and has seen more returns than sales this year. The worst was in August when all of the recent grads that bought brand new business outfits were forced to return them after their job offers were rescinded. Can't imagine how many new condo or car leases were also affected.
Stupid fucking Canadians keep voting in socialist governments.
And when socialists take over, investors leave.
But then again, we voted that communist Barry into the WH - TWICE!!!
Economic suicide - the new normal.
Zero Heads doomers and gloomers cannot get enough fear in their diet. The american ones are at the bottom of the cest pool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4GWOkvDeM
lucifer is strong in you...
Really? Profound. Thanks for the judgement. NOW FUCK AND DIE ASSHOLE!!!
Yeah, libtards, progressives and socalists simply tax the rich and prosperous until they leave.
Zero Hedge, masters of the top tick.
I just checked the exchange rate.
Between 8:30am and right now, the difference has narrowed again, and is only 0.0018 cents. WOW WHAT A PLUNGE.
Sheesh, what a bunch of doom and gloom over nothing. If it has dropped a couple cents, THEN that would make a headline.
However in the long run, the libtards currently in power are going to run the country into the ground.
For sure the loony is in trouble...Look at the Isis control OIL, extracted from Syria?, sell for 18 dollars’ a barrel , and WHOs buy it? …
Then we have a mass action war somewhere in t he planet with high expenses, pay HOW? Canadian Workers...
Then You HAVE YOU, Bunch of “PYCOPATHS”, easy to detect...
{How to spot Psychopaths: Writing Patterns give them Away...}
Canada still Canada even when Psychopaths say the contrary…
Note: [Ditch the Chrome browser, it IS THE ENEMY]
"Never wrassle with a pig;you both get dirty,and the pig likes it." Mark Twain
CANADA is certainly fucked, but the United States of America is fucked-er!
Give Canada another 4 years of libtard governments. The US will look like an economic miracle in comparison.
Even sbandoned mining towns do not look as bad as your ghettos.
I've seen both and I respectfully disagree.
If you haven't already, I cannot recommend a trip to Schefferville, a former mining town now occupied by the Indians left behind when the owners of the mine shut it down in 1982 and told the white people to move on (where wasn't clear in the middle of the worst recession since the Depression up to that time, but that wasn't Bay Street's problem), giving their former houses to the local Indians. The Indians basically let the place fall apart.
Put it this way---you can at least drive out of Detroit in your own vehicle. Only way out of Schefferville is by plane or a nightmarish twelve-hour train ride to Sept-Iles, owned, operated and maintained by the Indians about as well as you'd expect.
Wonder if SHALE has anything to do with this?
"Loonie plunges"? Not exactly. That dramatic little uptick shown in the chart above is just for sensationalism purposes... lasting what... all of 5 minutes? Why not take a look at a weekly chart going back 5 years. That little uptick in the USD doesn't even show up. It's a non-event... typical ZH noise.
The loonie has been in a steady decline since the summer of 2011, and that decline has been accelerating as time progresses. And on a side note... who's not pleased about that? But true enough, even though momentum in the loonie's decline is slowing, the coming bounce probably would probably only reach the 83¢ mark before the decline continues and the USD continues to strengthen. These are the simply effects of deflation in USD terms. Nobody should be surprised by this... because it's perfectly natural, to be expected, that as the USD surges, every other currency in the world will drop relative to it.
For those who seem to be cheering anything that sounds like Canada-bashing, go right ahead, have fun. Because if it were the opposite and the Loonie was exploding higher, Canada would be in a lot deeper shit up here than she is today. We're in just as much trouble as the rest of the world because we're part of it all, but all we can say is 'thank god the loonie is dropping'. It's those with a surging currency who are really up the creek.
Too true. Canada is winning the currency war, at least wrt the US.
Chronic long-term net exporters rarely "win" currency wars over the long term. If by 'winning', one means, devaluing.
Canada is going to need to learn how to deal with a chronically high CAD$. The current 'devaluation' is likely to be temporary at best.
Don't laugh too loud.
The loonie's value is closely tied to the price of oil (though maybe not as tightly as the ruble). Its value collapsed because Saudi Arabia has targeted USD40 a barrel for oil in a desperate attempt to bankrupt Russia and Iran and overthrow Vladimir Putin.
It hasn't worked on Putin (yet), but for now they've settled for the scalp of Stephen Harper, who had outlived any usefulness to the PTB long ago, and was one of the very few western leaders with any real interest in supporting Israel and fighting the Islamic menace.
Were oil at fair value (no less than USD70 a barrel) the loonie would be much closer to fair value in purchasing power parity terms, maybe 85 US cents.
More to the point, amore prosperous electorate would have been much more eager to give majorities to Tory candidates in the 2015 election that were immune to Muslim voter fraud in favour of the NDP and Liberals. Alberta would not have fallen into socialist hands and the Canadian prime minister's office would not have fallen into the hands of Justin Trudeau.
Do you hear me laughing? We're all in deep shit.
About the Alberta election, please don't think Alberta "fell into" the hands of anybody. We were sending that arrogant PC party a message... "get off your fucking high horse and start leading this province properly again, like you have done for the past 45 years." They didn't listen, so we turfed them. The new party, the NDP, is a flash in the pan... they're getting the boot next election too. There is a method to our madness.
Ditto with the federal election, that arrogant PC party, led by the most destructive PM in Canadian history, had to go too. The Libs aren't very damned popular in the west either, but all of Canada gave Trudeau a landslide victory because we were united coast to coast... Harper had to go. But Trudeau is already showing signs that he might be a lot better than we had expected. We're going to give him an honest chance before we start bashing the hell out of him. He's actually a good person I think. He sure as hell has a nice wife, gotta give him that at least.
Sophie: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2c/ETalk2008-Justin_Tru...
BTW, it wasn't me who downvoted you... you make good points.
Harper was a cocksucking Conservative neocon douchebag effin' motherfucking slimebucket scumsucking & asskissing slimeball dirtbag money whore.
He was NOT a Progressive Conservative!!!!
Hahaha. You are right. I stand corrected.