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The Pain Continues: These Are The Best And Worst Performing Assets In November And 2015
November was not a kind month for the hedge fund community, a month in which global stocks started the month off poorly forcing many to load up on short positions, only to see another furious short squeeze into the end of the month, leading to another round of forced short squeezes (as previewed two weeks ago) and leading many prominent asset managers to underperform (most notably perhaps David Einhorn who lost 5.2% in the month and is down 20% for the year).
But was November, and 2015 in general, bad all around? For USD-based invetors (which these days is most of them), the answer is a resounding yes.
According to Deutsche Bank, the biggest highlight in November has been another poor month for commodities with Silver (-9.4%), Brent (-11.3%) and Copper (-11.6%) leading the decliners in the bank's global asset watch. US HY (-2.5%) has also been a notable under-performer as Energy sector woes and single name stories dominate. European HY (+0.5%) out-performed but the seeking of creditor protection from Abengoa towards the end of the month knocked a few tenths off overall performance. The best performers have been the DAX (+4.9%), the Nikkei (+3.5%) and the Russian Micex (+3.5%). Chinese equity markets also performed reasonably (Shanghai Comp +1.9%) over the month and were on course to be one of the strongest performers before that 5%+ collapse on the penultimate day of the month.
With just one month left in the year, the best performing asset class YTD now (on a local currency basis) is the Russian Micex (+32.2%) followed by a couple of peripheral European markets in the FTSE MIB (+22.8%) and Portuguese General (+16.9%) index. German equities have put in a strong performance also with the DAX up +16.1%, while in Asia it’s been a good year overall for the Nikkei (+15.0%) and the Shanghai Comp (+8.2%) – the latter of course not without plenty of volatility. At the other end of scale its commodities which dominate with Brent (-32.5%), Copper (-27.5%), WTI (-21.8%) and Wheat (-19.4%) some of the notable underperformers. Greek equities (-22.0%) are also worth a mention.
If we compare this to YTD returns on a USD basis, the big theme is the fact that very few global asset classes have gone up in Dollar terms this year. Russian equities (+15.6%) and the Nikkei (+11.8%) have been the notable outperformers while European credit is in double digit negative returns which is the case also for European sovereign bond markets. So in a world of a stronger dollar it's been very difficult to generate positive dollar returns in 2016. With so many dollar investors at a global level this surely has to have had a big impact on the mood of 2015 and confidence. With the Fed and the ECB about to diverge it doesn't look like momentum is going to change as 2015 turns into 2016.
Source: Deutsche Bank
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All this continues until the non-participation rate improves...
Bring back the 40 hr/wk jobs.
Or, it all continues until we all give up and stop caring?
Shit's fucked people.
Believe me I stopped caring a long time ago, still no improvement ;(
Hmm, maybe a coffee enema would help? :)
Scotch Bonnets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotch_bonnet_%28pepper%29
Very inexpensive attitudeadjustment.
No worries, there will be plenty of cities to rebuild after WWIII, there won't be anybody to occupy them, but there will be plenty of cities.
And theses billionaires think they'll be safe sitting in their bunkers in the southern hemisphere with their bodyguards.
At the point there is an all out nuclear exchange their billions no longer matter.
It's all animal survival at that point.
The bodyguards have weapon(s), food and an extra person. Who gets killed off first to make the food last longer?
Bodyguards and billionaires are equal, except bodyguards are stronger and have weapons.
The billionaires will just be "On the Beach" at the end.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)
<-------Looks right
<-------Looks RIGGED
Wakey Bakey!
HY credit and commodities are flashing red over what we've known for a long time: the equity levitation is a Ponzi farce. The buyback game is running out of room, and even the mainstream at this point understands that much of the equity "gains" owes to that charade.
Interestingly, the MSM is still touting that gold has "further to fall" if the Fed raises rates...yet such a hike is "priced in" equities. The fear that the veil will be pulled back and asset values reset is palpable.
But the puppetmasters will pull out all stops to avoid that ending. Problem is, all alternative endings they forge are equally bad and merely postpone what must happen.
I might suggest to save the cold brew and, instead, offer up a nicotine enema from the original America's past.
Bitcoin has been doing well in November.....
What that says is that a few people out there have been able to hang onto their money.
Gee. This seems to contradict the MSM narrative of how badly Russia's economy has been doing with the oil prices down, economic sanctions of being cut off from Europe, and all that. How come Gartman isn't pushing Russia's market? Let me think...
a investment for you: just went long oil, after all, all this war talk about sending planes, ships and boots to syria, gotta use alot of oil?
how much oil does it take to fight a war? my guess a lot. and isis's little oil business is shut down by putin, so less supply?
long oil, a position all of wall st will tell you is nuts..
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