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Treasury Bond Yields Are Collapsing As Dec Rate Hike-Odds Slide
With December rate-hike odds sliding the most since the last FOMC meeting (down from 75% to 70%), following abysmal data this morning, it appears investors are reaching for the safety of Treasuries as either a fed policy error is about to be unleashed and/or growth is signficantly weaker than all the talking heads proclaim. With traders the most net short in years, this rapid plunge in yields could quickly accelerate.
The entire curve is plunging...
With 30Y almost roundtripping to The FOMC (and back below 3.00%)...
Given up all the payrolls purge rise in yields...
The last time the world was this short Treasuries, the 10Y yield collapsed from 3.94% to 2.39% in just 3 months.
(Chart shows aggregate net short speculative positioning across the entire Treasury futures curve - rebased to 10Y-equivalents)
Simply put, The Fed has created - through its constant communication and confusion - the biggest bear trap for bond traders... if a hike does not come in December, 2010's yield collapse could look like a stroll in the park, especially in the newly illiquid normal.
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When the ten year drops below 1% yield I'll start selling, but not before then.
And you'll get prime quality toilet paper for them.......
Don't
QE $1.2 tr coming.
As China sells their treasury holdings...
yes, eventually.
Never has so much (virtual) ink been spilled on something that was never going to happen (rate hike).
RateHike: ain't gonna happen.
Regards,
Cooter
Correct, and the Fed (if it survives politically...) will buy all the bullshit paper in the western world that no one wants...
a slow fade into obscurity for the FRN...
again, if the Fed survives and the world does not go to war in earnest...
same as it ever was.
It was a song about a guy who was obsessed with a girl. He wanted many many many images and photographs of her. But I get your drift, QE-Japanese.
DECEMBER RATE HIKE IS COMING!!!</sarc> ...I just want to buy silver at 10 bucks/oz.
I'm actually surprised that US interest rates aren't negative. Why would someone buy a Swedish government bond with negative interest but not an American bond with negative interest?
Force.
The prices you see are not caused by rational market investments. The prices are a result of forced buying and forced selling. Investment holdings have guidlines, rules, mandates and other forces acting on them.
So prices are the result of force and reflect the strength of those forces.
Yes. Eventually this force will cause the supply lines to break, then we can finally get on with culling the herd and the great reset.
Same as it ever was...
Who does the Fed think they are fooling with their chatter about raising rates? They will NEVER raise rates or its game over!
Bingo!
And the trick with fiat is CONfidence. They can't do the same shit show routine month after month, year after year, and have folks not figure it out.
How many MONTHS has it been since a rate hike? How many? BUELLER!?!?
Regards,
Cooter
Meanwhile, permanent high plateau intact
Never a rate hike under dear leader. The Fed is progressive/marxist. They would never do that to their idol.
If no rate hike is coming then short the bitch out of USD.
We await stocks to follow soon.
This is the ultimate insiders market so you have to be careful. Timing is everything but on a short enough time line everyone has room to go broke right or wrong is mostly about timing so unless you are on "the list" of privilidged insiders I'd be careful thinking anything is a slam dunk.
FED hikes just for fuks sake then removes it like Lucy removes the football it's all theatre.
Bond Markets always rally into the Last Hike of the cycle, as the cumulative effect of all the previous hikes begins to impact the economy and markets start to price in First Cut.
Given the current weak state of the economy the Fed's First Hike = Last Hike...so...rates should fall post-FOMC (if not before).
Until the Fed hints at QE4, Negative Rates etc. Then Bond Market goes tits up in a heartbeat.
Fucking Central Banks.
Bond market might not actually go up in that situation on account of higher default risk. That's the paradox of deflation; it actually causes credit to get more expensive as people fear the loss of money. Much like with inflation, which is also the fear of loss of money's purchasing power.
By definition, inflation is an increase in the money supply, period. Whether or not you feel the effects of that increase is another issue altogether.
A "loss of confidence" is something else, but that is exactly where we are heading.
No. this time there is no escape from the coming currency crisis. The central banks of the earth have in fact been working together this time around. In short, this time it is global Weimar. That's why it is taking longer for shit to get real...
buying time. fuck, if Japan can do this for 30+ years, think how long it might go on for the planet?
The problem I see is the fact that government liabilities are growing exponentially...
I am firmly in the camp of analysts saying that the Fed might raise rates in December... or January... or sometime in 2016.
Is that clear enough?
I also liked the Ravens to beat the Browns, though I didn't expect it to happen on a game-ending field goal attempt returned for a TD.
So, conflating the two completely diverse events/potentialities overall, the Fed might raise rates, but it will probably occur as an accident, of which our glorious Fed and ultra-exceptional federal government seems to be able to produce without breaking a sweat.
Forward, into the abyss.
yes, damn, I really wish we have an infinite probability drive!!!
Jaw boning FED Mother fuckers will never raise. How many times have I told you?
The Journal of Commerce Index has been cratering for the last year! This is an interesting video about the index and the fact that rate hike or no rate hike the economy is already in a severe slowdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8kLV-H1Yqk
I don't know if I'd call it COLLAPSING!
It's been range bound for the last 4-5 months. Kinda like the stock markets.
It takes a VERY long time for people to lose confidence in the only system available.
Add to that the modern dynamics of electronic transactions and what you have is a near perfect stasis field where the only way this goes to hell is if it gets bad enough barter comes back in a huge way.
What choice do modern humans really have?
Exit the slave system and starve or enter it and participate are the only two I see.
They own us all except for those wealthy enough or independent enough to somehow skirt the system of which there are exceedingly few and getting fewer.
This was why they targeted and annihilated small businesses because they are small kingdoms unto themselves and those people were free enough to actually call BS on this shitshow so they were exterminated.
Nope this thing might have a thousand more years to run or more it might be the last thing the human race knows before the lights go out.
Please don't speak to me of digital currencies or block chains, anyting that tracks all purchases / transfers for all time is not something that resembles cash at all.
Merry Christmas!
It takes a VERY long time for people to lose confidence in the only system available.
Exactly right.
However, the conclusion that the current fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-note/bit system/scam is "the only system available"... is a huge mistake.
Once people realize real, physical silver and gold coins in their pockets are not only a million times better, but is also entirely prudent, practical and readily available (as in currently functioning and favored by PM-bugs)... game over for the current system AKA scam.
The only question is... are humans today able to see what is right in front of their faces?
My guess is... humans today are too insane and blind to see. The solution to their problems is right in front of their faces, and has existed for thousands of years.
Humans are a failed species.
Humans are finished.