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ADP Employment Rises, Beats By Most In 2015, Fed Confirms Job Mandate Has Been Met
From "pumping out lots of jobs" in September to "not slowing meaningfully" in October, and despite consistent job losses in manufacturing (which is odd because auto sales are so awesome, right?), ADP reports November a jump to 217k (against expectations of 190k and October's 182k). ADP has missed expectations 8 months so far in 2015, but November's beat is the biggest since 2014 which one could argue was just catch up from ADP's big miss relative to BLS data (182 ADP with an upward revision to 196K now, vs 271k BLS). Of course, none of this "data" matters apparently as Fed's Lockhart said just this morning that the Fed's "criterion of job market improvement has been met."
Catching up to BLS data...
The Breakdown...
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 81,000 jobs in November, down from October’s 91,000. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 62,000 jobs, a bit less than the 67,000 added last month. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – came in double the upwardly revised 37,000 jobs added in October at 74,000 for the month. Companies with 500-999 added 57,000 jobs, the largest gain for this segment in the history of the ADP National Employment Report. Companies with over 1,000 employees gained 17,000 jobs, after adding 28,000 in October.
Spot the outlier...
(so the average monthly employment gain since 2009 for large firms has been 11k, amid carnage in the economy suddenly large firms hire 57k workers in Nov 2015... 4 standard deviations above average!!)
ADP explains...
"The strongest gains in the service sector since June led to greater employment growth in November,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “The increase was driven in large part by a rebound in professional/business service jobs.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth remains strong and steady. The current pace of job creation is twice that needed to absorb growth in the working age population. The economy is fast approaching full employment and will be there no later than next summer.”
The charts: Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
And the infographic:
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"...Lockhart said just this morning that the Fed's "criterion of job market improvement has been met.""
Fed Confirms Job Mandate Has Been Met
95 million out of work....that's setting the bar pretty damn low.
Using Common Core math, it computes to "not bad".
Come on TARD, don't be brainwashed. The U.S. Unfunded Liabilities is + $100 TRILLION fiat dollars TODAY, and the US Total Debt is $66 TRILLION today, and that includes house hold, City Local, State, & Federal DEBT.
You CAN NOT DENY THE TRUE FACTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The economy is doing great. Time to raise the rates.
That's odd.
is that sarcasm, art? i sure hope it is, otherwise you are lost.
jd59, i think you missed the sarcasm there, just sayin'...it was dripping with it.
Plus the U.S. is $166 TRILLION in fiat debt. The cake is cooked and burnt.
WWW.USDEBTCLOCK.ORG U.S. unfunded liabilities + U.S total debt.
The rotation of replacing high wage jobs with low wage part-time jobs is complete. Mission accomplished.
H1b s and young incompetence will restore the empire we once were.
(thanks, gender neutral MBA s)
500 to 1,000+ applications for "middle management" jobs is the new sign of success.
....and we have liftoff of the space shuttle Challenger.
This is one small fib for government, and one giant cooking of the books for mankind.
there are no official numbers that are true - all lies - all in the game of crime to maintain empire
Well, at least ... "there's Billions sitting on the sidelines."
That's what becky Quick said?
billions? chump change - trillion is the new billion
The tipping point will be when 'quadrillion' comes into common usage.
(Should be at 2qtr 2016 at this exponential rate.)
Heckuva job(s report), Brownie!
"criterion of job market improvement has been met."
Good to know. I'll keep this in mind and stay 20 hours a week until I retire then. Thanks for the update! I hope you fuckers at the Fed and Treas enjoy the fact I'll be making below poverty for the next 20 years and that will no longer require me to pay feral taxes. I guess you fuckers are tired of receiving income too.
May you choke and die on it.
Zandi's such a twit
He drinks BHOs white koolaid.
An obama boot licker...
Zandi's such a TWAT
FIFY
ADP is as useless as the BLS.
They are all part of the D.C./Wall St Mafia.
Let's go Raise Rates Today !!!!!
I stand in the prescience of brilliance...
They'd never expect it.
And in other news, the unicorn birth rate has tripled since yesterday.
That's great news.
In other news, prices for Skittles crashed.
not corrupt!
Come on Mr. Yellen, raise rates, crash the market, so I can BT BIG FD and send this economy into FULL BORE recession.
Raising rate will improve the eCONomy into a recession from a depression?
Dear Janet,
Please raise by an even 1%.
Then another 1% early next year.
Thanks
Still wont raise rates
There are lots of jobs out there - bartenders, toilet cleaners, burger flipper, ditch diggers, healthcare scam artists, prostitution.
(yep - green shoots everywhere)
shooting green.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_bullet
Like Turkey shoots ,eh?
http://www.turkeyshoot.net/
They are making it up as we go. The dishonesty is so striking its hard to phatom anyone believeing these ridiculos reports. All these wonderful jobs and no one is spending money? Bullshit is what it is.
The Empire spouts nothing but lies these days because if they don't they are finished. The Empire is also ratcheting up their war machine in case all the lies don't work - that's the real "exit plan".
ADP is, roughly speaking, a private company whose interests are not that tightly aligned with the Fed or gov. I wouldn't so easily grant that ADP skews their numbers the way BLS does.
I'm guessing any distortions here may be natural ones not revealed in the high level data, such as lower quality, lower paying, fewer-hours jobs increasing in number at the expense of high quality, high paying jobs.
Private companies are not told what to do by this group in DC? How is it possible sir that with all the Energy Jobs lost you have a positive number? This report is bullshit, plain and simple
Payroll processing is an artificial business created by onerous government employment tax regulations. Yet, anyone can get into it. Businesses can do their own payroll processing if they want. The government grants no special privileges to ADP or passes any laws privileging large payroll processors like ADP per se. It's a far more competitive space than telecom, health care, or financial services.
Accordingly no commissar granting exclusive licenses to process payroll or sitting on a payroll processing regulatory board had lunch with the ADP CEO and hinted today's numbers should come out high "or else." ADP is not compensated to fudge (lie) on behalf of the Fed and gov.
Energy jobs are not broken out in the ADP report, they are lumped in with a lot of other industries that may have added jobs.
Nobody believes any of this shit, the criminals in charge pretend they do.
This is great news! Just one problem for me though....I just got laid off! Right before Thanksgiving. Nothing says Happy Holidays like looking for a job in this craptastic market.
I'm sorry to hear of your job loss. Been there, done that. It's not a pleasant place to be.
What we all want to see that is more likely to happen is oil at $30. That will present a problem that The Empire may not be able to solve. When Iran comes online in the next couple months it just may well hit 30.
We also want to see the dollar index rise. That will blow up EM debt. The higher the better.
We also want to see CRIMEX post sub $1000 gold. The lower the better. I'd like to see it at $100. Whatever price they post they won't give you gold for your paper, unless you are one of their good buddies (wink wink) who are just there to collect a few ounces and help them keep their empire aloft - to play the game - and try to make it look like a legitimate enterprise.
Gold and Silver down again as planned.
You mean GLD and SLV are down.
If they keep pushing on the paper PMs, they're will be a run on COMEX. Which is one of a number of nightmare scenarios for them.
What run as long as they can get away with cash settlement. . . at their prices. The real question is how long can the real spot markets deliver at these prices?
That's the only question. And since the spot market is currently delivering at these prices to the tune of hundreds of tons a day, these are the real physical metal gold prices right now.
The key question is whether this current physical price is being subsidized by govt/central bank dishoarding and/or increasing hypothecation levels within GLD and other paper gold funds. If so, when that runs out, then the spot market price will rise.
I beg to differ on 'the only question', herkomilchen.
Rather:
Is sustainability of confidence in the $USD as primary global trade vehicle, and sustainer of the U.S. economic model as it stands, a factor within the Fed/ESF/Treasury complex? If so, the answer to all of this becomes abundantly clear.
Depends what currency you are pricing gold in. If dollars, then yeah, you have to consider dollar valuation as well.
Looks like my kids are getting a monster box for xmas...they better enjoy it
Since Black Friday started on Halloween, pretty clear that the "numbers" got a boost from the 50,000 part-time greeters, Santas, cashiers, and clothes rack organizers. Or the economic equivalent of about half the oil engineers laid off last month.
All that said, CNBC shills are backpeddling on the meme:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/01/yellen-calls-the-shots-on-wednesday.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/02/why-the-fed-may-revise-down-pace-of-2016-rate-hikes.html
So the Fed can't hike rates, and they can't not hike rates. Janet is going to need new Fedwords.
Maybe they could call it: Erectile Rates Dysfunction or ERD for short ??
'Any rate rise lasting longer than 4 hours should be cause for concern and would justify seeking emergency help from the IMF'
Can't hike, can't not hike doesn't matter.
Just buy moar stocks and short PM's.
And don't forget the Salvation Army bell ringers. Looks like they are having to pay them now too! Already been out here in KS since at least 10 days before THanksgiving seems earlier than the past. My brother will be hitting the unemployment rolls this month. He took a voluntary severence last year from Sprint thinking he would have no trouble finding another job. The one year package was generous and he thought ample time. A year later he is beyond surprised he has nothing even though he has fudged down his salary history to try and get something. He is a bright guy with great work habits and skills. First unemployment check will come in a couple of weeks..... He has already met the application quota mentioned as the new badge of courage 500-1000 applications.
I have zero faith that every number we see out of the Feds or their minions is not cooked. Even the bad ones are softend. The corruption of our system is complete. Unfortunately as Bill Holter said in a recent epistle. The majority of Americans wake up every morning hoping to be" fooled for longer"
and when all the Holiday hires are laidoff after Xmas then what? This is clealy temp hires for about 4-6 weeks...Good Lord...
Do they add the jobs when wally world reopens a store after 6 months that it closed because of union activity, err i mean plumbing problems?
ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfnvFnzs91s
I want a Lockhart figurine for Christmas. Would pair up nicely with my still-functional, 1978 Chewbacca.
At least we're still alllowed to say the "C" word (Christmas) in Merica. Not so in Brussels, Paris or Stockholm anymore.
Riiiiiiiiiight!
Don't know if anyone saw this fly under the radar, but it appears that the Fed passed a new internal law ending their mandate to be the banks 'lender of last resort'.
http://www.examiner.com/article/fed-votes-to-end-original-mandate-of-being-the-lender-of-last-resort-to-banks
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain (It's time to toss the dice)
The Daily Economist
i have never put much stock in cooked books, do you? i am amazed at the lemmings that take this garbage as fact? this world economy is on the brink and i read stuff like "the economy is great, time to raise taxes". I am appalled at the lack of critical thinking, the follow the crowd mentality and the sin.
it is only a matter of time before it all comes crashing down like a house of cards, and the queen of tarts is leading the clueless to destruction.
Put your salvation in Jesus Christ, sin no more, wash your mouths out of the evil that spews forth from it. Yes, I am guilty of that sin, I have a potty mouth too, but I am making a great effort to change my ways. Find and get right with God, as your, and my, judgement day comes.
I urge all people to see the truth, the light of Jesus Christ, as He alone can change the world, not you or I, my friends!
This is holiday hiring and YOY this is down from 284K which is a 24% decline YOY...not good.
Thanks for that rational explanation for why these numbers are high. In this case, a YOY number that, and I cringe to say it, adjusts for the season, is warranted and a better indicator of whether there is improvement in employment or not.
Wait, you must be comparing YOY Nov->Dec improvement. The thing to look at is YOY November employment. That number actually is up today. Steadily since 2009 straight through this year.
The only thing better for stocks than good news is not good news.
I love the smell of Federal Victory in the morning... Makes me want to sell gold that does not exist.
Another crock of shit report, another takedown of the metals, same old shit different day.
Choke on the lies you bastards.
who in their right fucking mind would believe ADP???
if ADP lies, they get their kickback from Washington and there are no consequences
new revenue stream / line of business from ADP - report utopia and get paid by gummamint
Lotsa road workers here in Comifornia! Life's good when you can get 25/hour to shower gravel!
dang, shower gravel, sounds like it hurts to me...$25 definately not worth it.
Employment figures are BLATANT LIES. More than all the gains are false statistical fictions, and the statistics reporters know this. What do I mean?
Once in a while a ZH article notes how a large number of jobs are automatically added to official statistics every month as a way to account for "net jobs created by new small business startups minus jobs lost due to business closings".
What's wrong with that? Well, this assumes more businesses are started than existing businesses vanish, which has been true for hundreds of years...
... until the past few years. That's when these two curves crossed over, which means, now more existing businesses are vanishing than new businesses are opening.
Which means... not only is the net number of jobs added not 250K per month (or something like that), but is instead something like MINUS 100K to 200K per month.
Which means... every month the official statistics exaggerate job creation by something like 300K to 400K jobs! But wait, that's more than the number of jobs they report created! Can this be true?
Yup. In fact, this agrees perfectly with the "labor participation rate".
All official statistics are now utterly false, massive lies. Not just "off a bit".