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Don't Show The "Data-Dependent" Fed This Chart... Ever
Spot the year that the "data-dependent" Fed will raise interest rates...
(Bloomberg's US Macro index tracks economic data for the American economy accounting for both direction and beat/miss expectations - a lower index suggests weaker data and/or missed expectations, a higher index suggests stronger data and/or beat expectations) - this chart shows the average for the year.
With the world expecting a 2nd half recovery like the last 5 years, 2015 is not playing along at all...
...while one ISM number likely won't sway the Fed it's worth taking a step back and taking stock of some trends in the economic data.
If it seems to you that the US data has been disappointing for quite some time, well, you'd be right. In fact, the Bloomberg economic surprise index has been negative every day this year except the first two. To say that this year has been a bit of an outlier for economic disappointment in the 15 year history of the series is a bit of an understatement!
While it's worth stressing that the chart represents the data surprise relative to forecast, not the actual growth trend, it's really quite remarkable that an institution that keeps paying lip service to "the data" is finally preparing to hike when said data has disappointed expectations for the better part of a year straight.
* * *
Given Lockhart's comments this morning that:
- *LOCKHART: ECONOMY DOESN'T NEED EMERGENCY TREATMENT ANY LONGER
- *FED'S LOCKHART SAYS DEC. FOMC MAY BE `HISTORIC' MEETING
- *LOCKHART SAYS CRITERION OF JOB-MARKET IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN MET
It seems like a done deal... especially after 4-sigma outlier spikes in ADP confirm it.
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rate hike 100%
not corrupt!
what exactly is this chart showing.. macro suprises? i dont get it
You're not the only one
Definition of what the Y axis represents would have helped?
You obviously don't work for the government or the media.
Alternatively, a full definition of what Macro surprise represents and how it is measured would also have clarified. As it is, this graph means precisely nothing.
Dup. Fat Finger. Apologies.
I'm totally surprised.
I think that macro-economic forecasts are most of the time over estimated so when the actual numbers come out, most of the time it's a negative number. (surprise)
Says more about goofy, media-mad happy-talk than rational economic "expectations".
See if they raise it they can blame it on the rates not the Fed!
Trust me the sheep will believe it! They always do.
Rate hike is publicity stunt for 2016 elections nothing to do with economy.
This is another chart that shows that the economy will keep declining until the Fed raises rates to give it a boost.
LOL!! Sorry, that's the wrong goal post.
Well theres the psych aspect too right? Shit half the draw to the site is initially for the fanboy beer gut traders probably the pitt as durden icon. So the hike is meant to show confidence in data that only an asshole would find encouraging.
Its always nice to have an explanation either way but now they will hike grntly with the xmas shoppinmg debt binge, aided by cash hungry lenders and biz, so they can claim with any bump their bright ideas were part of it.
That it will be bullshit doesnt matter. You economists mainly talk in bullshit anyway- guesswork slathered in numbers. Perfect for explaining tomorrow why yesterday's guess was way off.
And this act of benevolent guidance from Rothschild's Sarumans may in fact 'inspire' 'confidence' although I've never really understood what that is even supposed to mean
So anyway if the economy gets a holiday boost they take credit if the small hike is in the abstract harmful it will be the case that the hike failed to help or, the hike did help some but slower than expected blah blah
Then the spin - hey the fed usnt just printing and giving free cash to goldman and boa - no they are working hard.
That the steering wheel is basically decorative doesnt matter when people believe these cloens are geniuses instead of well educated idiots who can do child's math.
Then they have a place to go iwhen the economy does really nosedive when those consumer bills come due.
Oh and add to that a sharp rise in oil by/in February or early match - fighting weather (Purely just a hunch)
Yes there will be a rate hike,... of 0.01% maybe.
In Mechanical Engineering it is illogical to assume that one's will to force things to fit will be enough to make things fit according to tolerances. In politics, Macro-Economics, and Propaganda, one's 'will to power' is not enough to make belief systems act according to the will of a propagandist, Macro-Economist, or politician/policy wonk. In brief, let the Central Banksters believe their own rhetoric, and then pause to see how well it worked out for them.
"In Mechanical Engineering it is illogical to assume that one's will to force things to fit will be enough to make things fit according to tolerances."
Bullshit. You're a racist.
"Don't force it, get a bigger hammer"
There has been no recovery and there will be no rate increase.
If the hammer does not fix it, its an electrical problem or electoral problem
Except in DC it is not a battle of wills but a battle of won'ts
electoral problem, definite short there. multi entendre
Edit: bunch of wilnots in washington
Logic doesn't help if you begin from the wrong premise.
If you believe that central bankers believe their own rhetoric, then you're as big a fool as ever drew breath.
They are there for the same reason as judges and priests exist - namely to furnish a set of stories that seem plausible when assessed by the meidan individual (who is almost retarded)... stories that provide a fig leaf for an ongoing system of wealth transfer from the tax base to the favoured cronies of the political class.
If you don't think that ZIRP (and central planning more generally) is doing exactly what it sets out to do, then you don't understand the game.
Central planning of the price of money exists to help funnel wealth upwards. None of the beneficiaries of monetary policy give a fuck about what happens to the man in the street (or the broader economy). Unless you have a house in t he Hamptons, you just don't matter: your life, your labour and your happiness are not the objective of policy.
And they will continue to perpetrate their fraud until the system collapses - as their ilk always have (going all the way back to Rome, and before). That is how the powerful get to live in palaces - and it's virtually the only means by which anybody ever gets to live in a palace (inb4 'what about such-and-so a magnate or entrepreneur'... show me an entrepreneur who has made more than $5 million, and you will be pointing at a man who benefited from government policy for every dollar above $5m).
But back to the scum who steal our productivity, and the bureaucrats who enable them... so long as not too many of the peons get so desperate that they go ape-shit with an automatic weapon, the 'bezzle' continuera. (A few peons going ape-shit is good, though: it makes the median female beg for more protection from .gov, which enables the political class to tighten the screws and identify - and deal with - anybody who gets uppity about their slavery).
If they hike...the economy sinks...if they don't hike..the economy sinks.
Got Gold?
They're bluffing and openly misleading everyone.It's a scam.
I just hope this shitshow explodes before my puts expire.
Chart could indicate the Fed thinking: "Let's kick'em while they're down."
why would the fed raise rates?
on the international bankers, big board of risk, everything going fine, their winning the financial ww111, hands down.
the fed., ecb., boe., are destroying another generation of the targeted citizenry, working middle-class savers, every 6 months, with open borders, and forced taxpayer entitlements, the boj is just doing it the old fashion way.
the strong dollar helps the cb pawn shops, "Goldman's" pick-up whole countries at very reduced prices.
it's the physical ww111 their losing, a lot of hearts , and minds are changing daily, msm is being exposed for the Goebbels media it is.
All it matters is that Fed's balance sheet looks good in an engineered steep yield curve. Markets will be fired up with the hike. It has to happen with the co-operation of the other major CBs that really matter (PBOC, ECB, BOT). Never mind about the real economies of China, EC, Japan and US. The fudges can come later. Deformed markets not addressing the debt loads dance to its own music. Spins are stretching to support the notion that "stores of value" are in paper assets. You are just in the cycle of capital destruction that must precedes debt wipeouts. Just know where you are positioned in this long cycle.