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Janet Yellen Explains Why The Fed Will Raise Rates Amid A Revenue, Profit & Manufacturing Recession - Live Feed
Janet Yellen is set to begin the first part of her two-day excuse-fest for why The Fed will raise rates (market implied odds at 74%) in December despite Chinese stocks crashing again, carnage in commodities, a revenues recession, plunging EBITDA, a collapse in US manufacturing, housing rolling over, and auto sales fading (yes, read the facts here). Few expect her to rock the boat to change the market's perception, especially following Lockhart's confirmation that The Fed's job mandate has been met.
Yellen will speak before the Economic Club of Washington at 12:25 p.m. ET. She also testifies on the economic outlook before a joint committee of Congress on Thursday.
- *YELLEN: LABOR MARKET GAINS BOLSTER HER CONFIDENCE ON INFLATION
- *YELLEN: DELAYING LIFTOFF TOO LONG RISKS ABRUPT TIGHTENING LATER
- *YELLEN: DOWNSIDE RISKS FROM ABROAD HAVE LESSENED SINCE SUMMER
- *YELLEN: DATA SINCE OCT. FOMC SHOW LABOR MARKET GAINS
- *YELLEN: FISCAL POLICY TO BE POSITIVE FOR GROWTH IN COMING YRS
- *YELLEN SEES RISKS TO OUTLOOK AS `VERY CLOSE TO BALANCED'
- *YELLEN SAYS SLOWDOWN IN CHINA LIKELY TO BE MODEST AND GRADUAL
- *YELLEN: CHINA HAS TAKEN ACTION AND COULD DO MORE IF NEEDED
- *YELLEN SAYS HOUSEHOLD SPENDING PARTICULARLY SOLID IN 2015
The punchline:
Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession
Ironically, it is rate hikes that have been the cause of every single recession since the arrival of the Fed.
The full speech can be found here, and a word cloud is below:
Live Feed:
* * *
When Yellen takes the stage at the Economic Club of Washington shortly after noon on Wednesday, she will do so with market expectations already aligned behind a December hike, and the flow of economic data since the Fed's last meeting offering no clear reason to hold back.
The data has not all been great. Recent data on consumer spending and manufacturing have caused some analysts to pare back estimates of economic growth. Global trends that have weighed on the Fed's outlook for a year now also remain intact - the high value of the dollar, the low and unsteady price of oil, and weak world growth.
But the U.S. jobs outlook continues to be strong. Economists in a recent Reuters poll expect Friday's monthly employment report from the Labor Department to show around 200,000 additional jobs were created in November, an outcome that would support the Fed's first rate increase in nearly a decade.
Even some rate hike opponents like Chicago Fed president Charles Evans have shifted tone, focusing now on the need for rate increases to proceed only gradually rather than on battling a liftoff decision that seems nearly ordained.
"It is vital that when we first raise rates, the (Federal Open Market Committee)... strongly and effectively communicates its plan for a gradual path for future rate increases," said Evans.
To whiuch we offer...When ISM Manufacturing dropped to this level in early 2008, people largely ignored it at first... then The Fed unleashed QE1 to save the world... same again in 2012...
Of course, if anything she says is misunderstood, a host of Fed speakers make appearances through the day, including San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.
* * *
Full Speech below:
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It's just so unfair that I can't get drugs like they take........
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/lindsey-williams-la...
Just stop it.
Turns out these money monkeys fromYale can teach us a thing or two, just not what you thought ;-)
ZHers should get a good laugh from this one...
https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2015/12/02/weird-land-mon-ey-mon-key/
Yellen talks, God laughs. I hope the rest of the world is taking notes becase the FED has screwed them over for the final time, time for some payback if they are paying attention. Sell those dollars.
LOL the qestion was just asked to Yellen " The common people are confused about what the FED does, they are not economists, what would you like to tell the American people about why the FED is important and what it does?" FUCK YOU, all of you scumbag criminals.
She was reading off of a script when answering the Fed reports to Congress!
Yellin is like a baby in an old Jolly Jumper.
Up and down, up and down, and lots of goo goo gah gah, but despite all of the ups and downs, she never actually changes position.
Big Hat, No Cattle.
And, the FED picked a chairperson that matters - Alzheimer's as a credible defense for fuck ups, should the future require an alibi.
Lindsey Williams is a joke - totally full of shit. He just makes outrageous claims and sells books/etc.
Regards,
Cooter
listening to mr Yellen,have no clue what the fuck he's saying......
Bares repeating:
This is the dollar blow off top we were all waiting for before the final decent into nothingness. Enjoy the ride. It's going to be hard to enjoy this one however, mass layoffs and debt destrcution is going to be amazing. People always forget infalation rewards the debtors and punishes the people who made the loans. We can't have that. I hope you have low to no debt otherwise you are screwed. Sorry.
Basically, the FED is going to bankrupt the whole world on the cheap and then when it's no longer profitable and they own everything, the dollar will stop being supported. You better hope you work for the government or have your own revenue stream or you are screwed.
Of couse WW3 could change this senario rather quickly.
So, same as it ever was ...
Producers of real good and services are already having trouble delivering, regardless of the fiat "price". WWIII it shall be.
Hillary/DiBlasio, 2016!
"Yes we can!"
"Yes we Scam."
Blah, blah, blah...the hair on my camel toe fell off...blah, blah, blah...
So, if I lost CONFIDENCE the Fed will do what they say they are going to do, is that bad?
Regards,
Cooter
Yellen like a felon! Raise them rates through the roof! I double dog dare ya'!
Does "Mrs." Yellen not realize it is already December?
I'm going to do it... any minute now... just you watch it'll happen!
It's a special tobacco that Hobbits smoke.
I'll condense her too long statement into one sentence, "My friends are now short so it's time for the rest of you to take your medicine".
And down go the metals...fuck a motherfucking a. I thought a rate hike was good for pm. fuck it.
I quit paying attention to what I thought somewhere in the middle of 2009. None of this has any correlation with logic or sanity any more.
And if you mean good for PMs in terms of good for us that are still accumulating, then I think it IS good.
Stronger dollar is never going to be good for PMs. QE and other reactions to a recession caused by rate hikes and defaults will.
Everyone knows there won't be a hike, at least not a big one and not for long. Also everyone knows metals are manipulated to oblivion so it wouldn't even matter if there was going to be a hike.
Off Topic:
Donald Trump being interviewed by Alex Jones
Trump looks better every day, esp when I hear Barry pushing for importing yet another 50k to 100k refugees and cutting things like SS for Seniors to pay for the new arrivals.
They absolutely will raise rates. It's been the plan at least since 1913 to destroy the dollar. Now that the Yuan has been added to the SDR basket, the value of the dollar MUST be decimated so all currencies in the basket are relatively equal. But you are probably right that it may not last long; just long enough to begin the crash - which will be exacerbated by QE infinity.
Okay, and if by chance the FED does not raise rates, will you acknowledge that mistake, and take your beating like a man? I for one am sick and tired of the "hawkish" headlines and BS posts I've been reading here for 5 or 6 years now.
The FED has not raised rates in almost ten fucking years, since June 2006.
If they raise rates, it will merely confirm that their masters have confidence in the next phase of their plan.
"First by inflation, then by deflation..."
This is nothing more than a puppet show. Prices mean no more to the real world than do the Atlantic City real estate prices of a child's game of Monopoly. Eventually the farce will run into reality, and we will see which one wins out.
The end-game is complete and total destruction of the dollar, however they do it. A rate hike seems the easiest means, but there are a lot of different ways it can be done: QE alone could do it; China depegging from the dollar floating all their US treasuries; another 9/11 on American soil etc. The end will be the same.
Now, if it *doesn't* happen, then I'll gladly eat a hat. I don't want to see this shit happen. But I feel it will, and that it will occur sooner rather than later. So I am preparing accordingly, and sharing my beliefs here because if I'm right I'd feel like an ass for not at least speaking out so people can decide for themselves.
Dalla to 120 , oil to 30
equities will rally hard into year end after the increase........this is a very contrived move during year end bonus and market season. They have been working overtime trying to change the narrative.
“So it has been said, and so it shall be done……”
Middle of the road music for the middle of the road bullshit from Yellen. And of course, if you live in the middle of the road, you get knocked down.
The reason is because otherwise the world will see that nobody is loaning the US government $, meaning the Fed is creating fiat electrons at the rate of turnover of the US Federal Debt, and very likely the same will be true in other economic units.
An economy generating an extra $5T of fiat is a very different thing from one merely in QE.
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/ignoring-the-absolutely-in...
Following this, the world will institute hard currency controls to keep wealth inside moribund kleptocracies for the final shearings.
She reminds me of The Great Gazoo (calling WB7 for a pic) who appears to tease you with magical monetary promises and gifts. The Great Gazoo was even green...
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/378800000689137303/57caee1a0bb5cc8d...
and the dum dums are going to eat it all up on the MSM...
What's the over/under on rates staying down until WWIII actually breaks out?
I'm sorry sir, you're too late to place a bet. Those horses have already left the gate.
BS for EVERYONE!
CNBC now listing brazil as FOMC mandate # 25,971
Old Yeller, has to kill the sacrificial lamb [bonds] before she can fire up the printing presses again.
WTF? *YELLEN: FISCAL POLICY TO BE POSITIVE FOR GROWTH IN COMING YRS
The debt was increased over $600b in November alone.
" The debt was increased over $600b in November alone." yes, but isn't that much less of an increase than normal? Well, that's what all the obama bots keep saying anyway...
There ya go. ... Want to REALLY save this country and the world ?? Just one.. in the right spot
Can I read this WITHOUT the fucking ad playing music the whole GD time??!
Yes, by using an Adblock plug-in in your browser...
Tools / Addons shut off shcokwave...
Whenever I see a photo of this "sweet grandmother" I think of "The Godfather", a criminal.
can't raise rates.PERIOD
Token rate hike means nothing
Done to restore smattering of credibility
Will result in broad knee jerk, but ultimately, it gives them "room" to cut when "unexpected" data hits
And they'll never stop juicing the markets
Reminds of an old classic.
"That's when she said she was pretending"
Just goes to show that PHD's dont mean shit! Kinda like our dolla.... not worth the paper it is written on....
Household spending solid in 2015? WTF? Has she looked at the retail sales data?
Slowdown in China likely to be modest and gradual? I guess that crash is the new slowdown.
These people are idiots.
and 110% dishonest liars..................
I sure miss the good ole days of honest liars.
Household spending on Medical Insurance and copays is skyrocketing. BULLISH!!!!
Yellen - "I would like to discuss (vomit) the US (vomit) economy, barffff...
I love all the pics of this troll-chick...lol...c'mon boys, love is in the air!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-says-looking-forward-day-173224980....
Bail ins
Rate hikes
She's every kid's fantasy
A Saturday morning cartoon come to life
How about a cheer for Yellen?
Block that field goal, block that punt, kick that Yellen in the QQQQQ EEEEEEE!!!!
i read the speech.......what a bunch of self absorbed garbage! LOLOLOL
especially this last paragraph...........
"In closing, let me again thank the Economic Club of Washington for this opportunity to speak about the economy and monetary policy. The economy has come a long way toward the FOMC's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. When the Committee begins to normalize the stance of policy, doing so will be a testament, also, to how far our economy has come in recovering from the effects of the financial crisis and the Great Recession. In that sense, it is a day that I expect we all are looking forward to."
in other words, the fed is ready to make it easier for parasites to skim whatever wealth is left in the middle class so the .1% can have more. it is good to be king of the oligarchs.
Up until now I never realized Ms. Yellin is retarded.
Really? Have you ever looked at the fucking retarded mug of hers? I'm sure it's the common cheesepope genetic "retardation" when your paycheck (and life) depends on it.
It's the new "diversity." You have retarded Nancy Pelosi and Boehner as former House Speakers. Why not put a retarded person in charge of the Fed?
It's easy to throw out the 'retarded' jibe but I can't see how these people at the top of the Fed can be stupid. Corrupt, absolutely, but stupid...no.
Old Yellen has just hiked her leg and pissed on the citizens...again.
When will the sheep wake up to find their white wool, has been stained yellow and brown...
I'm sure you meant "her hind leg".
God damn it I am sick of being so right
Was there anything there about lying?
https://economicclub.org/page.cfm/go/about-us
Jesus fucking Predictable.
//
In the three or for 'recessions' I lived through, and not being an economist, i foresee raising rates will kill the economy.
Who is going to get a mortgage or a car with double digit interest rates? It happened before and will again.
I remember record profits by banks and oil companies while the guy on the street had to scrounge to make ends meet.
This is the best excuse ever for a black market economy. The greedy dragon called .gov is almost through biting the hand that feeds it.
They cannot and will not ever truly raise rates. Doing so would instantly reveal the US to be insolvent and would destroy the revenue the .gov is currently getting. Raise rates = instant detonation. Don't raise rates = eventual hyperinflation through loss of confidence in the fed and currency.
Raising rates by just 0.25% wouldn't cause too much problem with government debt interest payments. They would have to raise a few percentage points and let that sit for a year before feeling the pressure.
Eventual? Really? What planet have you been on?
I'm all for instant detonation...raise em.
It confirms that the Fed is nothing but a political overseer of that which shouldn't be political at all.
Shouldn't that read, Janet (felon) Yellen lies about why the (criminal) fed will raise rates?
HERE:
http://i606.photobucket.com/albums/tt144/jimbostaxi/image-16_zpsb36114b7...
this is great, fire up the regression models boyz. oh shit, missing 7 yrs of good data.. return regular broadcast stream of bullshit..
And their real reason for raising rates is so that they can lower them again at some point in the future and give the appearance the Fed is actually managing something besides Wall Street’s bonus pool.
So Janet from another planet was the one that played the fairy godmother in Disney's Cinderella? Magic wands and all? In the future, running the Fed will require a liberal arts degree, because there is more BS than real math. "Hope and Change" for those college kids with a liberal arts degree. Go Barry!
Rate hike in winter, so they can blame the effects on weather.
who the fuck dressed her ... she does know studio 54 closed, right?
It's like watching a Japanese cartoon. The coat gave me a seizure.
got it at the Thrift Store..................when you know you'll be out of a job fairly soon, you gotta save your money..............
BWA HA HAHA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!!
Wouldn't want to encourage excessive risk taking by keeping ZIRP too long, would we Janet???
Oh, and there are her magic words
Might have to keep rates below normal for a long, long time
Party on!!
At this point in time, what would a 'normal' rate be?
We like the data the last few weeks, if we don't like the data the next couple weeks we won't raise in Dec..... Wow.
How do you get in to see this shit show in person?... must be a real hot ticket!
Debt's 18 trillion and counting. The Fed can't raise rates. After 7 years of this shit who buys this jawboning baloney?
The Econ Club Blow Job folks., No one else is
Screw speaking in front of the BJ Suckers Econ Club. Get to the streets and talk Bitch Yellen
By "raise rates" Yellen means the rate which they pay banks to keep excess reserves at the FED; which is the only rate they control directly BTW.
that b is - just like the rest of them is/are totally full of s
Why do these geniuses assume that lowering rates is automatic growth, and raising rates will always slow the economy? Have the last 8 years not shown the fundamental unsoundness of this simplistic view?
i just listened to her speech in its entirety and I have come to realize she and the other professors simply cannot process the effect of fed policy on the real economy versus what she and her predecessors have theorized. furthermore, anyone can write a report which concludes that without Fed policy things would have been a lot worse, only becuase it's impossible to prove one way or another and as such is an unfair argument.
Chutzpa, chutzpa, chutzpa.
Openly admitting to buying stocks in the hundreds of billions.
Maybe she's looking at the "Climate Change" data by mistake...........
her basic arguement is the rate has been low too long, inflation is approaching the 2% target and employment has hit the target. so, it makes sense that unemployment caused by recession is a good thing. more people need to be unemployed, you know, because there is so much wage pressure because of the tight labor market caused by the boom in the economy over the last several years that things need to cool down.
these people actually claim to know what they are doing.
and of course the labor market is sizzling hot because since Obama came to power, we have 5 million more immigrants, legal and illegal.............wake up labor unions..........
"these people actually claim to know what they are doing"
And those who benefit from their cluelessness work to back up their credibility and maintain that illusion.
Credability and the Asset bubble I think are their targets right now. They realize this QE and ZIRP shit has worked as much as it is going to work and the Asset bubble is now having a negative return problem. They shouldn't have gotten involved in the QE and ZIRP in the first place and they wouldn't have to put our their own fires. Everyone knows employment and the economy suck, but if they continues down this current path of ZIRP, things are going to get even more messed up.
Fed, step away from the market and let it be a market, you would be amazed at the balance it can acheive.
"Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long"
They already have... way too long.
Should Congress have oversight of the Federal Reserve? Obviously an unfettered Federal Reserve can't be a good thing. They need a proper regulatory framework to help them be their best. Maybe a new Cabinet level bureaucracy to oversee. An Economic Czar, if you will.
The Czar would be just a clone of the FRB.
The bitch wont stop reading from the script..... even during the "Q & A" portion.
Even the last question that was the size of a softball, and put on a tee.... she had to read from her script....
Cant make this shit up!
The awl patch is in recession, y'all. I reckon Auntie Janet ain't payin' no attention to that there fact. I'm fixin' to hunker down for 2016, if'n them Juuzzz at the Fed follow thru on liftin' off them rates.
Somebody just hang this gnome bitch.
C'mon Janet, even a freshman econ student can tell the slow recovery is due to the fed's interference in the free marketplace. The feds presence skews risk and causes capital to be misplaced away from capex and R&D and into historically unproductive investments such as stock buybacks.
Wasn't expecting so much laughter during the feed.
(Well, maybe it is a laughable situation.)
It's a public institution because we can't buy an interest in it. Private member banks seem to own it all though, ya? Public as fuck.
There can be no recovery until rates are raised.
There can be no recovery until rates are raised.
Yes, you get it: raising rates will prove there was a recovery.
"Where's the kaboom? There was supposed to be an Earth shattering kaboom?"
When Granny goes on break she'll finish knitting up her QE4 quilt.
I love how her closing question was "is there any message you want the american public to know" Then immediatly she looked down to her notes and started reading from her notebook, and in particular noted that "we know high inflation can cause stress and hardship" (paraphrasing) This shows the Federal reserve is taking some heat and is getting pressured by Americans. Keep the pressure on them my good men here at ZH. Twitter, facebook, talk to people, put up yard signs in busy areas, all good ways to get the message out there about the robbery the FED has committed and continues to do so.
Since MSN sez the recovery in the overall economy is strong especially in the labor market and the dollar moving up vs. rivals, why is there no blather about average Joes taking advantage of the buying power in say the south of France? Perhaps Buying Mercede's in Germany and shipping them to the US. Italian shoes and suits, and so on?
It's happened before with a strong dollar. How about a month in Rio with all the hookers and and drugs one could handle. WTF. So called emerging countries need $$$ too. Come on Mr. month to month hanger ons Live a little while the going is so awesome!
Granny's next door neighbor claims her porch is stacked full of Depends boxes. I guess she's ready to raise rates now!!!
When the YUAN was delayed entry into SDR basket for a year and then suddenly allowed into; that was "the changing of the guard" and the confirmation will be IF the FED actually raises rates. It will destroy the banking system unless they have other mechanism to mitigate the problems associated with the carry trades and Interest rate SWAPS. Citi Group has recently sat down with govt & FED officials over something; they are already insolvent is as the FED is.
Expect the PPT out in full FARCE and expect Ms. LaGarde, the IMF'er, to start talking about what a mistake for the FED to raise rates. Expect commodities to collapse further and expect a multi-prong false flag in the US. Time to get food and reconciled to the Lord.
Anyone know what the favorites dates in December or January for the Satanists?
Whatever the Fed expects to accomplish, expect the opposite. A higher interest rate is deflationary because it attracts more foreign corrency which in turn strengthens the dollar.
These people live in a reverse world where down is up and up is down.
Ha ha ha...
As though zero interest rates have a snowflake's chance in hell of helping Main Street recover. Anyone check how QE and ZIRP are working in Japan after 27 years?
Meanwhile, lets cut out the lies and get to reality. Government pension funds can't survive if interest rates remain artificially low. Federal, state and local bureaucrats are fine with voters getting screwed out of their savings, but when Bernanke/Yellen start messing with the bureaucrat's pensions...
And having the AFL-CIO pensions in the gutter helps to focus the democrat party congress members minds. That's a lot of bribes... I mean campaign contributions.
Expect a flock of black swans (excuses) between now and mid-December 2015. If the fed raises rates in mid-December, they want the inevitable crash to happen then.
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One other possible consideration (and reason to maybe raise rates). If the PM manipulators are running out of ways to prevent "failure to deliver" of PMs, they might raise rates in a desperate hope to stop people from buying physical PMs hand over fist. I doubt that will work, but eventually they'll run out of ways to keep the manipulation going. Yes, the manipulation is 99% done with paper instruments, but they also need some physical at the margins to keep the scam working. Have they finally run out? Could be.
Janet Yellen says the economic recovery has been substantial.
No rate hike until morality increases.