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Turkey's Geopolitical Value
Submitted by Guillermo Valencia, founding partner of MacroWise
Turkey's Geopolitical Value
“Who controls the food supply controls the people? who controls the energy can control whole continents? who controls money can control the world.”
- Henry Kissinger
Europe’s energy dependency
Gas distribution is a powerful motive behind the Syrian war.
The biggest gas importer in the world is the European Union (EU), which invests around 263 billion dollars a year in this energy resource. Main exporters to Europe are Russia and Norway.
Due to the current Ukrainian conflict, dependency on Russia as the main gas supplier has become a risk for the national safety of the countries that comprise this political community.
Avoiding dependence of gas coming from Russian is a top priority for the European Union
The latter has exposed the need to build gas pipelines that are not under Russian control, reason why the European Union has been exploring alternatives to diversify the supply. Among their options, there are countries that have the world’s greatest gas reserves. On one hand, there are Eurasian countries like Iran and Qatar? on the other hand, there is the Caucasian region with territories such as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
The gas pipelines that would connect the Caucasus and Iran, and that are priority for the European Union are the following:
Nabucco and Transcaspia: It connects Azerbaijan with Eastern Europe, passing through Turkey. This gas pipeline exists, but Azerbaijan’s reserves are not enough to cover the energy demand of the European Union. The construction of the transoceanic gas pipeline through the Caspian Sea would connect the supply from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan with Europe. These countries barely make up 3% of global gas exports.
Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Syria-Turkey: Qatar exports 11% of global gas. Building this gas pipeline will be a direct threat to Russia’s supremacy over the control of gas. Syria and Russia have been military allies since the Cold War. Furthermore, Syria’s government's circle of power is comprised of Alawites, a Shiite sect. Iran is not only the Shiite epicenter, but also provides military support to Syria.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United States, the European Union and other Gulf countries have supported several rebel groups against the regime of Bashar al-Asad, indirectly contributing to the strengthening of the Islamic State within the region.
Islamic (Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon): Iran has gas reserves comparable to Russia. Building a gas pipeline that goes through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and ends in the Mediterranean is a diversification alternative for the European Union. The motives for the United States and the European Union to lift the economic embargo on Iran lies in its strategic value. In turn, the country has been asked not to enrich nuclear power plants.
After the fall of Saddam Hussein (Sunni dictator), and the withdrawal of the United States’ troops from Iraq, a power void was left in this mostly Shiite country. Said void allowed for Iran’s geopolitical expansion and the creation of the Islamic State as a reactionary Sunnite force to the Shiite expansion in the region.
The consequences of power's hidden snag
One of the consequences of these power struggles was the strengthening of the Islamic State, a Frankenstein that is out of its creators’ control, and is now a common enemy to the U nited States, the European Union, Russia and Iran. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Persian Gulf countries have been pressured by their western allies to fight this group. Nonetheless, these countries have common interests with the Islamic State within Iraq and Syria.
Low oil prices and geopolitical + Iranian deal could make the Gulf countries currency pegs very fragile.
Turkey is the next key region in this conflict, since the only alternative gas pipeline that supplies Russia, and comes from Asia (Nabucco), passes through Turkey. Future conflicts between Turkey and Russia will be part of the Russian strategy within the region. The only difference is that Turkey belongs to NATO and scaling the conflict will have global repercussions. Beyond predicting the next conflict, the key point is that the geopolitical risk is not priced in the region. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, credit default swaps (CDS) below 100 bps and Turkey and Russia CDS at 270 bps levels are not reflecting the geopolitical tension in the region.
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The great game continues.
The Qatar/UAE pipeline does not need to go through Turkey or Syria or the balkans.
The pipeline could easily cross RSA, the red sea, Egypt and the Mediterranean to Italy or Greece.
This isn't about the pipeline.
Is Erdogan the next Gaddafi? Some are speculating so. The ErDOG should be careful >> http://bit.ly/1SpGAhB
I totally agree! This is about far more than a pipeline. Liquified natural gas can also be transported by ship!
Piping and pumping technological difficulties crossing the few thousand meters deep mediterranean sea is the obstacle..
But the Ormen Lange pipeline from Norway to the UK that goes under the north sea shows it can be done
http://www.industrytap.com/worlds-longest-under-water-gas-pipeline-1166km-giant-serpent/339/
The med is shallower in comparison, and with the quantities it would seem a much better bet than trying to put anything within reach of some jihadi's with a pickup truck and explosives.
sorry ditto
Qatar isn't building any pipeline. They've already invested tens of billions that could have otherwise been spent on baubles, booze and hookers for the elite to construct GTL (gas to liquid) facilities so that they wouldn't be tied to a fixed pipeline. Moreover they basically have ONE gas field and a one hundred year plan to drain it. However, if either Qatar build pipelines in excess of their GTL capacity, or Iran starts pumping gas from the other side of the field... that 100 plan goes up in smoke. So now they spending a few billion to make sure neither Iran, nor anyone else builds, pipelines through Syria while they export gas to the European ports of their choosing, in liquid form, and gain market share in the process. With Syria being a no go and Brussels farting in the general direction of Moscow financing for Europeans paying to upgrade European ports is easy to obtain even without ECB ZIRP/NIRP.
Yep, only a nutcase would invest their capital into something that crossed Iraq and Syria today, ditto for Sinai in Egypt. The logical course for that pipeline is Saudi Arabia (ally), Jordon (ally), Israel (in their interests to gain more leverage) and under the sea.
It also would be easier to secure since Saudi's already have oil pipelines with 5m capacity following their border, which apparently they police with both overflights, guard towers and mobile forces, basically everything they have. Yet in all of this they have the problem of adding yet more eggs to the one basket, if just one attack is pulled off cutting the pipelines/main refinery things will descend into chaos, they have tried before and will try again and one day they will succeed, although the jihadists are not stupid, there is no point pulling the attack off while prices are low.
But when the prices turn I expect we'll see some long dormant plans spring into life.
'The great game continues'
Unfortunately the game is WW3......
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/road-to-ww3-time-to...
This is a great game but by no means is it a continuation of the great game. . .except in the minds of those who have no knowledge of history.
Oh, well!
It is precisely a continuation of THE great game, but it is only one piece and the Anglo Zionist Empire has Obozo fucking up the isolation of Russia right now after the Paris fiasco and "Turkey is ISIS" meme slipping into the public discourse.
Other pieces include: The expansion of NATO into the Baltic and Balkans, the re-partitioning of the Balkans, the coup in Ukraine, the war in Georgia, Saudi (and perhaps Turkish) destabilization in the Caucasus.
Knowledge isn't wisdom. History without critical thinking is propaganda.
Yes it does......... but why do I get the feeling I am hanging at the end of Jim Lahey's proverbial shit rope
I just sit back in complete awe sometimes of the central planning brilliance of the EU proclaiming it's energy independence with solar panels & windmills.
They really are an "exceptional people" ;-)
The earth receives more energy from the sun in a day than humans use in a year.
Digging up stored sunlight from the past is just easier to control and make a huge profit from (for the very few).
That's why renewables have never been allowed to work.
Yout comment just highlights your biases.
Cover every roof with solars and just about anywhere can be energy independent with a little care.
stored sunlight??? My ass...
Yeah, sunlight and CO2.
And don't forget the lead & acid, it's quite Gaaarrreeeen! ya know.
I always eat organic arsenic cause it's naaaatural....
And your comment just highlights your biases.
So...you're sittin around thinkin everybody has $30,000 to $40,000 to sink into solar for an average house?
Or are we talkin Government Subseeedeeezzz! ;-)
//////
And no, none of those was me...duh.
"...$30,000 to $40,000 to sink into solar for an average house."
I don't know where you live, but that's steep... waaaaaay steep.
Yeah, I think it costs less...but it depends on your consumption too. My concern is what do you do with spent batteries that can no longer be used after about 3-4 years?
$1/Watt for panels.
Who needs 30K Watts?
Batteries can be recycled, cuts cost somewhat.
"Who needs 30K Watts?"
Al Gore
Old oil drum, paint it black, leave in sun = free hot water
Without a government subsidy...aka steal from somebody else to make it work out for you financially for the install...thats what it costs.
If it was cheap everyone would do it including me, it's not.
You should re-consider. If you can use a screwdriver, it's not so much of a hassle.
Besides, compared to the infrastructure of the electric grid, it is cheap. The tech wasn't there when they built the grid.
http://www.wholesalesolar.com/
I'm not planning on being here long enough for it to pay off.
But thanks anyways ;-)
Hemp based nano graphene solar panels dont sound very profitable for the MIC though does it?
Taking that to it's reductio ad absurdum conclusion... Should we in turn then only build into the earth to save heating and cooling costs? Nothing above ground at all.
Digging up stored sunlight? WTF did I just read?
Standard Disclaimer: An entire generation of future Morlocks thanks you for your wisdom.
Sunlight plus CO2 equals plants plus time equals oil/coal.
Hence, digging up sunlight.
Yeah, and to think there are Luddites out there who still advocate for coal. Idiots.
"Cover every roof with solars and just about anywhere can be energy independent with a little care."
If you knew the tiniest bit of physics you would understand that your statement is absurd.
My friend has an airplane hangar covered with solar panels. At NOON with NO CLOUD COVER he can power two electric cooking stove heating elements, only. If there is a cloud cover over the hangar the solar power drops by a factor of 10. Obviously, at night the solar power output is ZERO.
I'd like to be respectful to people like you, who are ruining our country, but it is getting harder and harder to tolerate your ignorance.
nahhhh....youre the people ruining the place. seriosuly man....its just maths.....
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/09/dont-be-a-pv-efficiency-snob/
Ivory tower idiocy, in the real world the bottlenecks are storage capacity and transmission.
"My friend has an airplane hangar covered with solar panels. At NOON with NO CLOUD COVER he can power two electric cooking stove heating elements, only."
Did he forget to take the covers off? ;-)
They really are an exceptional people. . .in the same way that Zippy the Pinhead was an exceptional person.
....... you ever notice how pissed off people get when you treat them the same as they treat everybody else??? Might be time for Vlad to market Pantir systems and other nice to have toys to the Kurds......... or get some Russian NGO's going in some of these places .......... on the other hand I'm guessing not everyone can bring themselves to be complete assholes quite like our manifest destiny crowd.......
China & its Asian Partners; Iran-Iraq-Syria and Partners; Russia/CIS and Partners; The Bricks & South American Partners and THE PARTNERS who see the Light coming on board ( like Germany ).
Fuck Turkey, the EU and the Dis-United States of Ameerika.
Countries and Religions......
The two worst inventions that humans ever came up with.
Fuck governments - they are the problem, not the solution.
I agree with you about the current crop of rulers (not governors).
As for countries and religions, well, the NWO is working hard to get rid of both of them.
What do I think the two worst inventions are?
How about negative interest rates and HFT? Now there's a combo that's going to blow the lid off of everything.
The worst invention in human history is advertising.
It's the acid that has dissolved most of what was once good and honorable in "western" societies.
What ever happened to peak oil? I thought so...
What did you 'think so'?
The 1973 US-Saudi deal involved the use of U.S. dollars worldwide, to buy Saudi oil. I wonder if there is a similar deal for gas...maybe that's one of the reasons Russia & Iran don't want a Saudi Qatari pipeline through Syria.
Heya' handsome.
What a marvelous look. Nice to see people with excellent taste on ZH.
I was thinking the same...
...then I read your post!
GONG!!
/jk
Lot of baggage.
This is where years of playing Civilization and Total War have paid off, dot need to read the article. it is a important strip of land for all the geographically challenged.
Well, if you had bothered to read it you would not have missed quips of infinite wisdom like,
And,
Yea, all fucking Iran's fault. Is there a hunting season for Douche-bags like Guillermo Valencia?
It's good to see someone putting some emphasis on the Caucasus and its history of oil and 'terrorism.' They're not done with that there yet. It will be the next front.
Ukraine (wants EU inclusion) and Turkey (NATO member) control almost all pipelines into Europe. Both are US allies.
Russia's efforts in Syria aren't entirely selfless.
The New Silk Road might be a little pointless if it stays uniquely within Asia.
I think is time for Russia to launch an all out war against NATO destroying the alliance should be the main priority.
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/about-the-massive-psyops/
I think the evidence is that ownership of assets is ownership of minds. To get our minds back, we need to strip them of assets.
Is the implication in the article that Russia is planning to go to war with Turkey? Utter nonsense. Russia was working hard to establish commercial and business relationships with Turkey to draw it into the eastern orbit. But the US would have none of it and signaled to Erdogan to take down a Russian plane to blow up any Turk turn to the East. Perhaps it wasn't difficult for the US to convince mad dog Erdogan to take an utterly risky step, by playing on his greed. He is a little Islamist Hitler eager to manifest his 'destiny'.
The US has been taking big risks in the last two years. Ukraine, Syria, and recently pushing on China. The US is a mad dog that we had better cage or put down before it blows up the world.
Turkey has always been erratic, must be something in the water. From what I hear Erdogan intends to conquer and annexe an area in Syria next to the Turkish border where Turkmen live. Apparently they are still suffering because they are not part of Turkey. Second motivation is: prevent Kurdistan, independence for Kurds.
He also implied that Iran was responsible for the creation of the Islamic State.
Can we start the WWIII as a bar fight yet? America, Germany, UK, France, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Saudi, Qatar, Syria, and Turkey are in a pub having a drink...Everyone is kicking Syria - Russia smacks Syria - Turkey smacks Russia - some lowlife in the bar yells something about a snackbar and smacks France...
...meanwhile Israel heads for the backdoor.
Maybe you didn't see them in the bar; they were just sitting in the dark corner minding their own business.
Maybe the story should be "Everyone is buying Syria drinks. Syria is getting absolutely bombed out of its skull."
But even before all that, Saudi and Qatar whisper something to America. America draws a red line in front of Syria but goes quietly back to its table and whispers something to some stranger...
Hey you fucking hack, try writing your own material for once.
it's over there -------------------->
The Unknown Comic was known for recycling old material.
GONG!
So, Turkey is currently "recycling" Syrian oil.
Got it.
Please Sign White House Petition to
LIST ERDOGAN’S TURKEY AS STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM; VOID U.S. ALLIANCE WITH TURKEY
A petition has just been posted on the White House website requesting that 1. Turkey be listed as a State Sponsor of Terrorism and 2. The U.S. void our NATO alliance ties with Turkey!
REQUEST:
1.
Please go to the link highlighted below ASAP and sign the petition. You don’t have to list your zip code (optional) and only your initials (not your name) will appear. You only have to be 13 years old or older (have your children that age sign!), and you do not need to be a U.S. citizen.
2.
Please distribute this appeal, especially among members of the communities victimized by Turkey. Use email and social media (Twitter, Facebook, etc.)
Of course, no one expects President Obama – or any U.S. president of either party – to grant this request. However, it is important that this statement of “an inconvenient truth” stay posted on the official White House website, for all the world to see it! For that, there needs to be 150 signatures per day until January 1, 2016.
Please get the word out!
The link and the petition text follow. (NOTE: Petition texts are limited to 800 words, so this is very concise!)
Thanks!
@JimJatras
++++++++++++++++
http://wh.gov/ivgtL ( Go to this link to sign!)
LIST ERDOGAN’S TURKEY AS STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM; VOID U.S. ALLIANCE WITH TURKEY
Following Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet striking the Islamic State (IS), it is undeniable that Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan supports jihad terrorism in Syria. IS exports oil via Turkey and terrorists of IS, al-Qaeda, and other jihad groups transit the border.
This builds upon a pattern of Ankara’s support for terrorists in other countries: Russia (Chechnya), China (Xinjiang), Israel/Gaza (Hamas), Yugoslavia (Bosnia), Serbia (Kosovo), Georgia (Pankisi), Egypt (Muslim Brotherhood); aggression against neighbors (invasion and occupation of Cyprus, violation of Greece’s airspace, blockade of Armenia); and denial of genocides against Christian Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians.
Turkey should be listed as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. The U.S. alliance with Turkey under NATO should be voided
Where's the petition saying that the US is a state-sponsor, instigator, supporter, under-writer, facilitator, enabler, and initiator of terrorism and has been since the end of WWII?
Sternly worded letters for everyone!!
I am Australian, so I cannot sign your petition, but agree.
There is an additional angle: You cannot be in NATO when you have a civil war going. But the bombings and deaths in the Kurdish are a civil war. it is not well known that this is happening, because information is not let out much. An Australian died on Istanbul airport of 'suicide' just last month.
Hint: There are many Kurds in Berlin, Germany. They might have better knowledge about the details what is going on in that civil war - just in case you have a connection there.
This is the sickness that eats away at the heart of Western man. Petition other men like a pack of women? How far do you think you'll get?
The only petition they will answer to is a hail of bullets.
Smell the coffee America.
Worth reading: The real war the West is planning has nothing to do with ISIS.
This is fucking stupid article.
Why you need to pas that pipeline through Syria? What so specials about Syria? You want to export gas from Qatar & Saudi's, right? You can use Iraq straight to Turkey. Or if you don't want Iraq? Go to Saudi's -> Israel -> undersea pipe to Turkey (if you so insistant to use Turkey. What is special about Turkey Route anyway? If your market is EU? I use Italy to route it. Italy have more modern pipes network than those corrupted Eastern Europe beggars).
Here the Pipe from EXISTING to EU from Africa/ME.
http://m.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/09/29/us-eu-lost-in-wishful-thi...
EU can just BEEFUP existing pipes networks from Africa, if it wants to increase supplies from this regions. Why insisting on Syria/Turkey idiots routes?? Do you think routing pipes to Syria much more SAFE than to Israel??
Azerbaijan? You want to RELLY on AZERBAIJAN? Dude, Azerbaijan IMPORTS Russian Gazproms gas!!
http://en.trend.az/business/economy/2432398.html
Are you really that stupid? You want gas from country that HAD TO IMPORT IT from other country? Which is Russia??
- - -
Next, US Gas Export to save EU gas security out of Russia? What US gas EXPORT??
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/01/undeterred-by-global-glut-us-pushes-ahe...
This current gas price:
http://blogs.platts.com/2015/10/30/us-natural-gas-prices-multi-year-lows/
And you have to ship that damn thing to EU. How much shipment cost taken hit by US exporter?? Then, how much PRICE you'll want to BREAKEVEN?? Still thinking EU will be saved by US gas?? Too retards to understand??
- - -
Dude Tyler. You better check your sources there. This article is totally rubish!!
Dude,
Tyler didnt write it.
Guest post.
Attention: Turkey is not Turkey. If that pipeline from Iraq into Turkey goes through exlusively Kurdish countryside you won't have much joy for long. Kurds have been fighting for independence for ... I think it's 300 years, and cooperation with Turks is not even skindeep after the recent nasty bombings (and deaths) in the Kurdish region. Technically, Turkey should not even be in NATO as they have a civil war going on. Even if Syria and the fanatics are sorted, the Kurds will not give up the idea of an independent homeland, especially after they are being used to fight the fanatics and a tinpot country like Montenegro (600,000 inhabitants) was allowed independence. Must have a look at the map, but I'm not sure if you can have a pipeline and bypass the area of the non-existing Kurdistan.
I find it instructive that certain stories that go beyond the level of conspiracy and are extremely damaging to the US etc tend NOT to get posted here at ZH, at least not until AFTER the official "counter"-line has been established. ZH might still touch the line from time to time, but no longer does it cross it -- as used to be the norm. For shame.
Oillah Hoo A-kabar
(Oil demon , come out of your grave)
Muhammed-ur-rasool oillah
(And Muhammed-representsTheOilDemon)
---------------
Oil demon released on humankind
humankind is now condemned
I put a spell on you. May your laundry ~never~ come clean. (We'll smell you coming)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeXqtzusIU0 - Watch out, I ain't lyin'" - Creedance Clearwater Rival
You know the present popstars make sign of devil during their concerts
& are steeped in drug abuse , perversion & what not
devil worship is abound
Now that Turkish Stream is off the table perhaps South Stream can be taken out of the moth balls. But that will renew interest of certain alphabet agencies into Western Balkans countries as Macedonia experienced this year.
Anyway, countries with 'geopolitical value' are screwed sooner or later. Look at Poland or Yugoslavia.
Take a look at the world map. How come so many countries have names ended in IA ?
Saudi ArabIA
RomanIA
YugoslavIA
EtiopIA
CroatIA
LatvIA
LithunIA
MongolIA
EstonIA
RussIA
BulgarIA
GeorgIA
ArmenIA
TurqIA
SyrIA
IndonesIA
MalaysIA
AustralIA
IndIA
NigerIA
TunisIA
MauritanIA
AlgerIA
LiberIA
NamibIA
and there are many more in Africa
STAN means the land of but what is IA ?
It might mean IA.
Latin for feminine - means the country in question is a Motherland.
That being so, isn't it rather odd that the country more misogynistic than any other is Saudi ArabIA.
"Due to the current Ukrainian conflict, dependency on Russia as the main gas supplier has become a risk for the national safety"
Probably the other way around. Ukraine has been made a conflict, 5billion Victoria Nuland, because Russia is a main gas supplier and Qatar needs to become it
Everyone is fighting Isis yet it can't be beaten. Very strange indeed.
Not when you realize the US, France, Turkey etc are "fighting" ISIS by funding them, giving them weapons, training, special forces support etc.
It's Russia, what's left of Syria and Iran that's fighting them. Kurds are doing some as well.
THEN it makes sense.
"Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United States, the European Union and other Gulf countries have supported several rebel groups against the regime of Bashar al-Asad, indirectly contributing to the strengthening of the Islamic State within the region."
Bullshit it's indirect.
WHO WROTE THIS? TRANSCASPIAN PIPELINE ISN'T EVEN A PROJECT! NABUCCO WAS CANCELLED. SEARCH FOR TANAP + TAP
Who controls the information controls the universe. Large, angry mobs require a 1 million man army to stand between the government and enraged people who realize we should have been protected from their long reach for the prize we won, and instead, aided and abetted in the pilfering and plunder our a nation's wealth at an unprecedented rate, seemingly hurriedly, to break the back of the nation and present her citizens with a debt that did nothing for them but just that, enslave them and divide their country.
Power is addictive, and they have bills to pay. Some should be shot, some imprisoned, some exiled into lifelong rehab for deprogramming at their own expense., not more power. End the DNA of everyone in power of making decisions by sterilization. This cruel and unusual thought process was devised with an element of contempt at every new conclusion. Despicable men who have no right to decide how better men than they will live. Cowards and thieves keep secrets. Once a thief, always a thief, as mother said.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26DD0JwAbAc
Depeche Mode - Personal Jesus
Boyko Borisov- the Bulgarian prime minister must go for stopping South Stream.
Bulgaria needs to get rid of trators in power.