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Spot The Factory Orders Recession
When it comes to the US manufacturing economy, things are now abundantly clear: it is in a recession, the only question is how acute this recession will be, and how long it will last. According to the latest factory orders data released moments ago by the Dept of Commerce, while the headline number rose a modest 1.5%, above the 1.4% expected, the reality is that the baseline number was so low a sequential rebound was inevitable.
The real punchline is the Y/Y change, which is shown on the chart below: it shows that factory orders have now been negative over the prior year for a whopping 12 consecutive months, which is just 3 shy of the 15 months of Y/Y declines recorded during the great recession.
See if you can spot the manufacturing recession:
Still can't? How about now using this chart which shows that US factory orders are back to where they were in late 2010!
Finally, if it still not visible, here is a chart which will make the US manufacturing recession visible even to the most tenured central planner and/or economist.
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All 1oz Silver coins are €12 @ EurGold
https://www.eurgold.eu/silver/silver-coins/
better raise those rates then!
As long as the bansksters skim their millions, does it matter to Wall Street?
Now lay a chart of the SPX next to that. Things don't corrulate. Hmm guess it must be FED, ECB manipulation.
But, but, but, the gnome's promised there was a big market for underwear.......
it's almost time to manipulate that data
oh crap, ...we forgot to seasonally adjust the data ....and we need to add adjustment do hedonic quality of the drastic lifestyle improvements of amnetsy-awaiting third-world invaders on EBT cards in HUD housing.
It has to be double adjusted now and soon triple adjusted......
Factory orders YoY chart porn screams ' print, print, print.' ... no?
Dear quarter of a point rate increase ... we hardly knew ye.
Signed,
Unemployed American Middle Class
Peeps keep posting incredulous articles about facts, and dismay that the Fed seems to ignore facts.
I'm incredulous that you think facts have anything to do with it. Time for a new paradigm: the management of preception can trump facts for long periods of time. We're in one of those.
Stop with the facts; they just confuse things.
“If you don't want a man unhappy politically, don't give him two sides to a question to worry him; give him one. Better yet, give him none. Let him forget there is such a thing as war. If the government is inefficient, top-heavy, and tax-mad, better it be all those than that people worry over it. Peace, Montag. Give the people contests they win by remembering the words to more popular songs or the names of state capitals or how much corn Iowa grew last year. Cram them full of noncombustible data, chock them so damned full of 'facts' they feel stuffed, but absolutely 'brilliant' with information. Then they'll feel they're thinking, they'll get a sense of motion without moving. And they'll be happy, because facts of that sort don't change.”
Ray Bradbury... Fahrenheit 451
The new paradigm is coming in the form of robotics and depopulation for the good of mankind and mother nature - very sick people at the top with many supporters at the bottom. Blind following the blind (AKA: Liberal).
Bankers don't need no stinking factory orders....
I love the term "even the most tenured economist/ central planner...". You don't have to be so dignified Tyler.
"Even a f***ing idiot" will suffice.
The difference is there used to be 100,000 factories...now there are 2.
You mean it's doubled recently?
Is it just me or is there like a MILLION more pop up ads on here than there used to be??!
That is just part of the new robust service economy you are feeling.
A-D-B-L-O-C-K-E-R
Works for me; FIREFOX & AdBlockPlus
I had to go to FireFox with Umatrix.
My Mac become unusable...litterally...the real 'litterally..as in I had to quit, restart, take a shower....ZH is infested.
I think some new chart craters and crevaces are about to form anew in coming months....
is manufacturing even relevant now?
It was always relevant.
Key word here is "was".
No need to buy stuff anymore, everything you need is on your phone now.
Spoos testing "support" from 11/24 at 2069/2070ish.
Long keyboard maintenance services for the BOJ and Khen.
I see nothing, I know nothing!
Scary when your competition drops their prices by 10% overnight on a commodity product. Our daily sales meetings are getting weird again just like right before the last crash! No worries the Fed has it all under control!!!
Actually, the FED is just one tentacle of the BIS (Bank of Int'l Settlements).
Established on 17 May 1930, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the world's oldest international financial organisation. The BIS has 60 member central banks, representing countries from around the world that together make up about 95% of world GDP.
The mission of the BIS is to serve central banks in their pursuit of monetary and financial stability, to foster international cooperation in those areas and to act as a bank for central banks.
https://www.bis.org/about/index.htm
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
2. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
3. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
4. Fed sees 2 bubbles
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
o Commercial Property higher than pre-2007 level.
http://nreionline.com/finance-investment/cre-prices-are-now-officially-above-pre-recession-peak
o Global Corporate Debt Market hits $5 trillion.
http://fn.dealogic.com/fn/DCMRank.htm
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
I'm surprised we still have factories; enjoy the fresh air. (sarc)
Does it really matter since the free printing press to infinity cat is out of the bag and no one cares or is powerless to stop it?