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Fed Whisperer Hilsenrath Confirms 'All-Clear' For December Rate-Hike
As if any confirmation was needed, The Wall Street Journal's Fed whisperer Jon Hilsenrath 'reports':
Friday’s employment report clears the way for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at its Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, ending seven years of near-zero interest rates.
Noting that anything over 200k would have done it..
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in testimony to Congress on Thursday the economy needs to add fewer than 200,000 jobsa month to keep the unemployment rate moving down and to draw discouraged workers back into the labor force. Payrolls increases averaged 218,000 on a monthly basis in the September-through-November stretch, more than enough to meet the Fed’s objectives. On this front, too, the labor market is on track as officials want and expect.
But,it's not all unicorns and ponies...
One slight stain in the report was a retreat in hourly average earnings from a 2.5% year-over-year increase in October to a 2.3% increase in November. Still, officials see signs that slack has diminished to the point in the labor market that wages will start rising more briskly.
So...
With the first move widely expected in financial markets, Fed officials are likely to go into the meeting debating how they can emphasize to the public that the central bank will proceed cautiously and gradually with subsequent rate increases in 2016.
In other words, The Fed is positioning this rate-hike as the most-dovish tightening of all-time...
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Mr. Rat... Now it's a rat writ, writ for a rat, and this is lawful service of same... [/Rooster Cogburn]
Loudspeaker announcement:
Dennis Gartman, report to the nearest insane asylum. Bring your own straight jacket.
Looney ;-)
Fed won't hike.
Agree Haus. But the theatrics are entertaining!
Regards,
Cooter
The show must go on.
Believe it when see it.
I'm from the "Show Me State"
They will a "token" amount. This will further destroy inter-bank liquidity so there will also be more stealth QE.
The slow slide into 3rd world status continues...
...until the supply lines break and the herd is culled.
same as it ever was...
"Fed won't hike"
Don't think of it as hiking. More like a Michael Jackson moonwalk.
"Fed won't hike"
I agree.
The bond price downside is enormous.
There are $Trillions of bonds that will lose value the nanosecond that interest rates are increased. What does the Fed think that those bondholders will do? Hold on to the bonds as the interest rates continue to increase and lose value?
In my case, I would sell whatever bonds I had as soon as interest rates increase. Why keep a losing value asset?
What to do with the proceeds of the bond sale? Buy hard assets and wait for the hyperinflation to arrive.
WTF?
Well, einstein, bonds peaked almost A YEAR AGO. Yields on the 10 and 30 year are up almost a full percent. So if yellen raises fed funds by a measly 25-50 bp, it is indeed already priced in.
I've seen this movie before. The first few hikes are ignored. Once they've gone up a few percent, something breaks and the market corrects.
The Fed will hike, the economy will take a shit, then we'll get the mother of all QE's. At that point the fun will truly start.....
Holding my breath.
It's been argued that a rate hike will cause derivatives mountain to "blow up".
Watching.
Everything is negotiable, especially in a default/bankrupcy. Central bankers have repeatedly forgiven each other's debt and bad/bullshit bets...
They will do the same thing with the bullshit derivative paper, they are the only ones holding this shit. Once again, their debt "dissappears", yours does not.
Roll the motherfucking guillotines, nothing changes otherwise.
< Fed will hike rates.
< Fed cannot afford to hike rates.
P.S. On second thoughts, I wish I had put the options the other way round, so would have at least had a positive vote record for myself...Because I too believe that Fed cannot afford to hike rates!
Tossed you an up arrow just to help your vote record!
Thanks for the up arrow, but what's your opinion? :)
The G20 installed 'bail-in' system (depositors will provide the first line of defense for a repeat of TBTF banks) seems to have been forgotten by the majority of people. Now seems like a perfect time to crash the system...
Since when has not being able to afford something stopped the US government from doing anything?
They are shooting themselves in their own untreated gangrenous foot if they do this.
unfortunately, the Fed is not the people's government, in fact the Fed owns your representation...
They will definitely do so.
And you can take that to the bank
- the money bank.
The Fed cannot afford to SAY they have increased rates.
However, can't they make an mountain of unpublished exceptions? I don't know how they could do this, but since I don't trust them...I suspect some backdoor has been created. I would say "for insiders"....but, they entire FED/Banking Monopoly is the inside to begin with.
They're going to do what they did the last time they raised rates: raise by .25%, the Dow will shed a couple of thousands of points, the talking heads will scream doom and gloom, and around 3 days later, they will reverse the decision sending the Dow to new all time highs and the talking heads will proclaim Mr. Yellen to be a miracle worker.
Same as it ever was.
So an AWESOME jobs report. Everything is awesome and stocks are going to be even more awesome-er-er...
Bullshit!
Steve Liesman just Said this "Rate hike is in the bag". Haha. He's now talking about when the next one will come.
did he also mention how (supposed) hikes were bullish for equity prices?
'' A rate hike could kill exports " .... ChairsatanEmeritus Bernank
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-says-not-obvious-economy-can-handle-interest-rates-at-1-2015-10-05
Yea okay.
Why does every other stupid sponsored ad on here say "jaw dropping" in it? So fucking stupid and condescending!
it's called "click bait". Welcome to the internet...
Yes, a "token" rate hike and more stealth QE. Yes, you can in fact go "fuller" retard.
History rythmes, no doubt, but this time it's global Weimar.
Ok boyz n girlz. Here's the reality of what the zio shill Hilsenrath is stating.
There will be such an epic event between now and December 15th that the world as we knew it will be gone forever and the idea of a rate hike will be blown to smithereens.
Prepare well.
The New Bolshies are here and ready.
Chinaman: "A word please Ms Yellen?"
i lol'd @this
Wow great point of view when I really think about it.
Yikes . . . 10 days.
History Repeats?
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=10058
Good article. The commenters, though - fucking clueless. Didn't even bother to finish the comments section...
Isn't arson a deliberate act of sabotage?...
The White Chimp better pull somthing more spectacular out that hat than San Bernadino when those "rate hikes" become a reality!
If the Fed hikes it is tantamount to suicide. Wont happen.
Rates will not go up even a tenth of a point until Obama is out of office.
Good thing they were able to force everyone into government "securities" right before the rate hike (and right before the bond market emplodes). Just got this email from Fidelity (emphasis added are mine):
Effective December 1, 2015, the Fidelity(R) Cash Reserves and Fidelity(R) Money Market Trust Retirement Money Market Portfolio investment policies and names will change, as approved by the funds’ Board of Trustees and fund shareholders.These changes will enable each fund to operate as a government money market fund.The funds will adopt a principal investment strategy normally to invest at least 99.5% of the fund’s total assets in cash, U.S. Government securities and/or repurchase agreements that are collateralized fully (i.e. collateralized by cash or government securities). The funds will no longer be permitted to invest more than 25% of total assets in securities issued by the financial securities industry.
The fund names will change to reflect each fund’s transition to a government fund. Fidelity(R) Cash Reserves will be renamed Fidelity(R) Government Cash Reserves. Fidelity(R) Money Market Trust Retirement Money Market Portfolio will be renamed Fidelity(R) Money Market Trust Retirement Government Money Market II Portfolio.
Received the email today, Dec 4. Note the effective date is Dec 1. No option give to opt-out or withdraw from participation.
(edit: Fuck Fidelity)
^^^This is what I have been railing about for 20+ years, ever since I started a retirment fund for my employees. In essence the socialization of PRIVATE losses continues!!!
We are coming to the same endpoint that brought down the Soviet Union, we are coming to that same endpoint from a different vector, that's all...
that's why i made up some sob story and pulled my meager 401k out of fidelity last summer...
lubing up for tax season next year...
Wow. I did not even receive an e-mail, but just logged into my Fidelty account to confirm that this is indeed the case.
http://imgur.com/FW0iaHh
Well, looks like it is time to take that early withdrawl penalty and make a sizeable PM purchase and do some fishing.
Not a chance of 25 bps raise unless the Fed has destruction of the bond supporting derivatives in mind, but maybe something much smaller say 5 or 10 bps.
Hilsenrath is the Fed's igor in their Frankenstein economy.
"Yes master, I will tell them you are raising rates."
More theatre. These people game the system constantly. As if they would advertise for higher rates and then actually do it. Bullshit baffles brains here. The abuser and manipulator may even honestly admit they are abusing you, but continue to do it anyway. These people are untouchable and they know it. So they use the media to convey bullshit and then reverse there fedspeak come judgement day for reasons of bullshit. I'll eat my 4 year old christmas cake if they hike rates, just so I can have a purging experience to remind me how foolish I have been.
A token hike of .25 might do the trick.....but it won't matter as risk will come off regardless of what bullshit press release comes along side Yellen and the Fed.
Risk appetite wanes.....and JPY takes big inflows.
Risk appetite wanes.....and AUD gets smoked.
The trade ( as per Forex Kong ) is short as f**k AUD/JPY
Levels and strategy a "gift" here: http://forexkong.com/2015/12/04/open-your-mind-audjpy-is-next-to-fall/
This guy has said the same thing every single time for over a year. Not that it matters. The USD is still going to get taken down. That is more important...until all the interest rate derivative trades start to unravel anyway.
Markets up +1.00 percent on news of rate hike ... momentum is a powerful force ... but it will not last.
The Fed has always "broken" markets at every one of their policy inflection points during prevoius cycles, making messes. They're good at it.
"Rock,...meet hard place."
A rate hike would act as the needle that would pop the Greenspan bubble, Hilsenrath.
Methinks Hilsenrath's brain is pickled in brine.
What will a rate hike do to derivitives and interset rate swaps?
"... ending seven years of near-zero interest rates."
Not to put too fine of a point on it, but isn't an interest rate of 0.25% still "near zero"?