November Jobs Surge 211K, Higher Than Expected: December Rate Hike Looms Despite Slump In Weekly Earnings

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears the December rate hike is now cemented following the BLS' report that November jobs rose by 211K, higher than the 200K expected, and well above Janet Yellen's "whisper" number of just 100,000 being sufficient. This follows an even stronger revision to the October number from 271K to a whopping 298K. The unemployment rate remained flat at 5.00%, in line with expectations.

 

While the headline jobs number was good, a less pleasant statistic emerges below the surface where we see that while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% as expected, this was down from last month's revised 0.4%.

 

But an even worse picture emerges when looking at the average weekly earnings, which actually declined to $871.13 from $872.27 last month, which represents just a 2% increase from a year ago, matching the lowest print over the past year. This is the result of weekly hours worked declining from an upward revised 34.6 to 34.5

 

For those curious about the participation rate, it actually posted a small increase from a 38 year low of 62.4% to 62.5% as a result of the people not in the labor force declining from 94.5 to 94.4 million.

 

From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 211,000 in November, about in line with the average monthly gain of 237,000 over the prior 12 months. In November, job growth occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Employment in mining and information declined over the month. (See table B-1.)

 

Employment in construction rose by 46,000 in November, with much of the increase occurring in residential specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Over the past year, construction employment has grown by 259,000.

 

In November, professional and technical services added 28,000 jobs. Job gains occurred in accounting and bookkeeping services (+11,000), and employment in  computer systems design and related services continued to trend up (+5,000). Over the year, professional and technical services has added 298,000 jobs.

 

Health care employment increased by 24,000 over the month, following a large gain in October (+51,000). In November, hospitals added 13,000 jobs. Health care  employment has grown by 470,000 over the year.

 

Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in November (+32,000) and has risen by 374,000 over the year.

 

Retail trade employment continued to trend up in November (+31,000) and has increased by 284,000 over the year. In November, job gains occurred in general merchandise stores (+12,000) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+9,000). Over the past 12 months, these industries have added 85,000 jobs and 71,000 jobs, respectively.

 

Employment in mining continued to decline in November (-11,000), with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Since a recent peak in December 2014, employment in mining has declined by 123,000.

 

Information lost 12,000 jobs over the month. Within the industry, employment in motion pictures and sound recording decreased by 13,000 in November but has shown little net change over the year.

 

Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, changed little over the month.

 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November. Both the manufacturing workweek and factory  overtime were unchanged in November, at 40.7 hours and 3.2 hours, respectively. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private  nonfarm payrolls was also unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

 

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $25.25, following a 9-cent gain in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $21.19, changed little. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from  +137,000 to +145,000, and the change from October was revised from +271,000 to +298,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month.

Here, however, is the punchline: we will have more on this shortly:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November, following declines in September and October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is down by 765,000.

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847328_3527's picture
Energy Future Holdings' bankruptcy plan confirmed by court

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/12/energy-future-ho...

 

 

"Yes we can!"

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

WOW! This number is simply mind-blowing! It is now absolutely undeniable now that we are in a full-blown economic recovery. Sure, it has lasted for six years, but you have to remember that President Obama had to save our economy from one of the most brutal financial crises in history. To be where we are now after the economic recession we faced in 2008 is simply incredible, and today's number calls for celebration and a great sigh of relief. I'm just really fearful now that some clown like Trump is going to completely undo the economic progress we've made over the last 7 years. Progressives need to be vigilant and defend our work against the white right that seeks to take use back to the stone age. 

NoDebt's picture

LET NFP=150000+INT(RND(1)*100000)

For all you old heads like me that played around on a Commodore Vic 20.

 

Rikky's picture

Loved my Commodore 64 I still have it, the tape drive and the 1MB floppy external drive and a few games like Bard's Tale up in my attic I should dust it off.

Son of Loki's picture

Can I hire the BLS to calcualte my GPA?

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

This metric may have to be revised to Birth/Death/Newly Arrived Refugee Model pretty soon.  Going to really jack the numbers up.  #WINNING

firstdivision's picture

No, they'll just have to admit that they've got a plugged number in there to account for the prostitues, drug dealers, bookies, and hitmen. 

Bunghole's picture

Raise rates you cunt.

I dare ya.

It's only a measly 25 bp.  Just the tip.

Do it or loose what little credibility you have left.

StackShinyStuff's picture

Don't take this personally and apologies if it is a legitimate typo but I am taking a stand and cannot tolerate this any more.  And that is, learn how to spell LOSE.  This is NOT going to turn into one of those things where it becomes acceptable to spell it LOOSE just because it becomes common usage.  NOT ON MY WATCH.  I can put up with a lot of shit but NOT this.  No more.  Every time I see this I am calling the motherfucker out.  Lazy fucks WILL learn how to spell.  I promise you that.

No offense...

pods's picture

Don't loose you're cool or their will be trouble!

beachdude's picture

Thanks, the proliferation of lose/loose misusage is my pet peeve.
Seriously like fingernails on a chalkboard.

Cruel Aid's picture

loose just feels right

ouch, bung takes it up the... well you know

madcows's picture

was there any real doubt that it would be "Better than Expected"?

the FED needed cover for their rate hike.

e_u_r_o's picture

Cover? I thought hiking rates is what the economy needs. Now that butthurt goldbugs are bleeding its suddenly bad because it doesnt suit them? LoL

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Thanks for chiming in Paperbug.  This link should take you back home:  http://www.nambla.org/

 

ejmoosa's picture

Weakest November Job growth since 2012.

Lowest 12 month job growth since May 2014.

50,000 fewer jobs per month added in 2015 than 2014.

Are things getting better or worse?

Callz d Ballz's picture

Time to normalize rates.

CHoward's picture

Now...I really am all warm and fuzzy because everything truly is awesome.

mandalou's picture

Time for liftoff. Easy money!!!!!!

mandalou's picture

This is what happens when baby boomers did nothing but fuck the country up. So I sit back, make fucking bank, and watch the ensuing panic with a shit eating grin.

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Pull the trigger already you FED WANKERS.  Don't be scared....the world is watching.

yogibear's picture

"Don't be scared....the world is watching."

The Fed is very scared because they know how deep down in the financial system their BS is. Asset bubbles in many sectors.

Rainman's picture

I hear the gun manufacturers are hiring like crazy .

silverer's picture

That could explain the job numbers.  I know a federal firearms dealer that just hired two more workers to reload ammo.  Multiply that by the number of firearms dealers (51,438) and add a few more on the front end sales...

Bunghole's picture

Ammo production is a shitty job.

I've seen GD make 20, 25 and 30mm rounds.

Tedious, monotonous work with the constant risk of a "pop" from static discharge.

Propellant and tracer production is even worse with exposure to lots of nasty volatiles and metals.

CheapBastard's picture

Ammo production, gun manufacturing and body bag production numbers are all bullish! Even Funeral Homes & Crematoriums are hiring moar!! It's a lively business the undertaker down the block claims with a grin.

herkomilchen's picture

Finally, a business providing real value is growing.

Tjeff1's picture

Initial stock pop to turn to drop

NoWayJose's picture

Now that BLS has released the numbers given to them by Goldman, leaving Janet very little wiggle room this time, I wonder what Goldman and friends have in mind for the rest of us?

buzzsaw99's picture

yellen ain't got no ballz

cpnscarlet's picture

As noted in te last post -

They can always get the numbers they want. Yellen and the masters of the Universe are still in control. SOLIDLY in control. This shitshow may just go on for another 20 quarters.

Being honest has never been Soooooo 20th century.

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

MOAR FLEECING!  It's good til the last drop....

semperfi's picture

can a sheep tell if its getting poked ? 

it doesn't seem so

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

double double good, mr yellen.

KansasCrude's picture

In my best Gomer Pyle...Surprise Surprise and SHAZAM....no one makes it up like the U.S. FED.    May they all hang from the tree of liberty soon!

Infinite QE's picture

Rate cut rate cut rate cut.

The exact date for rate hike is sometime in 2145 according to my crystalline meth ball.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Man, this data is a complete fucking disaster, will very much enjoy watching Yellen weasel out of hiking rates with literally no data-driven argument to back her up.

buzzsaw99's picture

i really don't think this fed will hike nine days before xmas. this is the biggest fattest most feathered bunch of doves evah.

wmbz's picture

Allah be praised it's a miracle!

Complete horseshit, but no surpise!

 

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Let's see what this economy can really do....take away the punchbowl and let's see if she'll fly!!

847328_3527's picture

... and all that "money sitting on the sidelines...."

grekko's picture

It's all those temps hired for the X-mas Season.  In January, they'll all be let go.

JPMorgan's picture

The hike is on then, or at least that's what they want you to think.
I still wouldn't be suprised if they gave December a miss.

shutterbug's picture

300K is enough

200K is enough

100K is enough

50K is enough

0K is enough

Everybody isn't looking for a job anymore so What Difference Does It Make??!

Macro Fantasy Tales. ... Its ALL lies and deceivement.