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November Jobs Surge 211K, Higher Than Expected: December Rate Hike Looms Despite Slump In Weekly Earnings
It appears the December rate hike is now cemented following the BLS' report that November jobs rose by 211K, higher than the 200K expected, and well above Janet Yellen's "whisper" number of just 100,000 being sufficient. This follows an even stronger revision to the October number from 271K to a whopping 298K. The unemployment rate remained flat at 5.00%, in line with expectations.
While the headline jobs number was good, a less pleasant statistic emerges below the surface where we see that while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% as expected, this was down from last month's revised 0.4%.
But an even worse picture emerges when looking at the average weekly earnings, which actually declined to $871.13 from $872.27 last month, which represents just a 2% increase from a year ago, matching the lowest print over the past year. This is the result of weekly hours worked declining from an upward revised 34.6 to 34.5
For those curious about the participation rate, it actually posted a small increase from a 38 year low of 62.4% to 62.5% as a result of the people not in the labor force declining from 94.5 to 94.4 million.
From the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 211,000 in November, about in line with the average monthly gain of 237,000 over the prior 12 months. In November, job growth occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Employment in mining and information declined over the month. (See table B-1.)
Employment in construction rose by 46,000 in November, with much of the increase occurring in residential specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Over the past year, construction employment has grown by 259,000.
In November, professional and technical services added 28,000 jobs. Job gains occurred in accounting and bookkeeping services (+11,000), and employment in computer systems design and related services continued to trend up (+5,000). Over the year, professional and technical services has added 298,000 jobs.
Health care employment increased by 24,000 over the month, following a large gain in October (+51,000). In November, hospitals added 13,000 jobs. Health care employment has grown by 470,000 over the year.
Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in November (+32,000) and has risen by 374,000 over the year.
Retail trade employment continued to trend up in November (+31,000) and has increased by 284,000 over the year. In November, job gains occurred in general merchandise stores (+12,000) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+9,000). Over the past 12 months, these industries have added 85,000 jobs and 71,000 jobs, respectively.
Employment in mining continued to decline in November (-11,000), with losses concentrated in support activities for mining (-7,000). Since a recent peak in December 2014, employment in mining has declined by 123,000.
Information lost 12,000 jobs over the month. Within the industry, employment in motion pictures and sound recording decreased by 13,000 in November but has shown little net change over the year.
Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, changed little over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November. Both the manufacturing workweek and factory overtime were unchanged in November, at 40.7 hours and 3.2 hours, respectively. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was also unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $25.25, following a 9-cent gain in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $21.19, changed little. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +137,000 to +145,000, and the change from October was revised from +271,000 to +298,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month.
Here, however, is the punchline: we will have more on this shortly:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November, following declines in September and October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is down by 765,000.
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Recovery Year 7+
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/12/energy-future-ho...
"Yes we can!"
WOW! This number is simply mind-blowing! It is now absolutely undeniable now that we are in a full-blown economic recovery. Sure, it has lasted for six years, but you have to remember that President Obama had to save our economy from one of the most brutal financial crises in history. To be where we are now after the economic recession we faced in 2008 is simply incredible, and today's number calls for celebration and a great sigh of relief. I'm just really fearful now that some clown like Trump is going to completely undo the economic progress we've made over the last 7 years. Progressives need to be vigilant and defend our work against the white right that seeks to take use back to the stone age.
lol, nice. +1.
LET NFP=150000+INT(RND(1)*100000)
For all you old heads like me that played around on a Commodore Vic 20.
Loved my Commodore 64 I still have it, the tape drive and the 1MB floppy external drive and a few games like Bard's Tale up in my attic I should dust it off.
Deleted...wrong data
Can I hire the BLS to calcualte my GPA?
This metric may have to be revised to Birth/Death/Newly Arrived Refugee Model pretty soon. Going to really jack the numbers up. #WINNING
No, they'll just have to admit that they've got a plugged number in there to account for the prostitues, drug dealers, bookies, and hitmen.
Raise rates you cunt.
I dare ya.
It's only a measly 25 bp. Just the tip.
Do it or loose what little credibility you have left.
Don't take this personally and apologies if it is a legitimate typo but I am taking a stand and cannot tolerate this any more. And that is, learn how to spell LOSE. This is NOT going to turn into one of those things where it becomes acceptable to spell it LOOSE just because it becomes common usage. NOT ON MY WATCH. I can put up with a lot of shit but NOT this. No more. Every time I see this I am calling the motherfucker out. Lazy fucks WILL learn how to spell. I promise you that.
No offense...
Don't loose you're cool or their will be trouble!
Thanks, the proliferation of lose/loose misusage is my pet peeve.
Seriously like fingernails on a chalkboard.
loose just feels right
ouch, bung takes it up the... well you know
was there any real doubt that it would be "Better than Expected"?
the FED needed cover for their rate hike.
Cover? I thought hiking rates is what the economy needs. Now that butthurt goldbugs are bleeding its suddenly bad because it doesnt suit them? LoL
Uh, gold didnt drop
Thanks for chiming in Paperbug. This link should take you back home: http://www.nambla.org/
Weakest November Job growth since 2012.
Lowest 12 month job growth since May 2014.
50,000 fewer jobs per month added in 2015 than 2014.
Are things getting better or worse?
Time to normalize rates.
Now...I really am all warm and fuzzy because everything truly is awesome.
Time for liftoff. Easy money!!!!!!
Dec 2, 2015
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/drilling-down/2015/12/more-mass-...
This is what happens when baby boomers did nothing but fuck the country up. So I sit back, make fucking bank, and watch the ensuing panic with a shit eating grin.
Pull the trigger already you FED WANKERS. Don't be scared....the world is watching.
"Don't be scared....the world is watching."
The Fed is very scared because they know how deep down in the financial system their BS is. Asset bubbles in many sectors.
I hear the gun manufacturers are hiring like crazy .
That could explain the job numbers. I know a federal firearms dealer that just hired two more workers to reload ammo. Multiply that by the number of firearms dealers (51,438) and add a few more on the front end sales...
Ammo production is a shitty job.
I've seen GD make 20, 25 and 30mm rounds.
Tedious, monotonous work with the constant risk of a "pop" from static discharge.
Propellant and tracer production is even worse with exposure to lots of nasty volatiles and metals.
Ammo production, gun manufacturing and body bag production numbers are all bullish! Even Funeral Homes & Crematoriums are hiring moar!! It's a lively business the undertaker down the block claims with a grin.
Finally, a business providing real value is growing.
Initial stock pop to turn to drop
Now that BLS has released the numbers given to them by Goldman, leaving Janet very little wiggle room this time, I wonder what Goldman and friends have in mind for the rest of us?
yellen ain't got no ballz
As noted in te last post -
They can always get the numbers they want. Yellen and the masters of the Universe are still in control. SOLIDLY in control. This shitshow may just go on for another 20 quarters.
Being honest has never been Soooooo 20th century.
MOAR FLEECING! It's good til the last drop....
can a sheep tell if its getting poked ?
it doesn't seem so
double double good, mr yellen.
In my best Gomer Pyle...Surprise Surprise and SHAZAM....no one makes it up like the U.S. FED. May they all hang from the tree of liberty soon!
Rate cut rate cut rate cut.
The exact date for rate hike is sometime in 2145 according to my crystalline meth ball.
Man, this data is a complete fucking disaster, will very much enjoy watching Yellen weasel out of hiking rates with literally no data-driven argument to back her up.
i really don't think this fed will hike nine days before xmas. this is the biggest fattest most feathered bunch of doves evah.
Allah be praised it's a miracle!
Complete horseshit, but no surpise!
Let's see what this economy can really do....take away the punchbowl and let's see if she'll fly!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgV2iMJOs2Q
... and all that "money sitting on the sidelines...."
It's all those temps hired for the X-mas Season. In January, they'll all be let go.
The hike is on then, or at least that's what they want you to think.
I still wouldn't be suprised if they gave December a miss.
300K is enough
200K is enough
100K is enough
50K is enough
0K is enough
Everybody isn't looking for a job anymore so What Difference Does It Make??!
Macro Fantasy Tales. ... Its ALL lies and deceivement.
We don't need no stinking jobs
we got obamacare, we can be fucking artists and great thinkers now. A job is an economic and social injustice
Hey "fucking artist" is a microagression. You've offended me and made my asshole pucker.
Equity futures like it. Then they won't.
Mr. Yellen has finally run out of time. The rate hike is now here.
Now fast forward to next month when the numbers are revised downward.
Have we seen the breakdown of these jobs? How many are Jack In the Box or healthcare....an economy all by themselves.
Fucking liars
looks like someone just ran a script that downvotes everyone - is that you fonestar ?
Look ma - I can do it too!...
November jobs - 205k
November jobs - 170k
November jobs - 197k
November jobs - 124k
November jobs - 213k
pick one
ahahaha. No one believes any of this nonsense!
Jesus - the best amongst us are near the breaking point ...
(the rest are scum-bag-loser code-monkeys from China, India, and other sticky/smelly places)
(we are all fucked)
(have a nice day)
I am pretty sure, judging by all of the sudden down votes, that Janet is logged on to ZH today. So, please be on your best behavior in the presence of her highness.
all hail her cuntness...
Funny how .25% can change the world. Really puts it in perspective for you.
Heard it already yesterday: "Rate hike is already priced into stocks."
Expect a moonshot the last two weeks of December. Now, don't tease us, aunt Janet. We want our stockings full!
I feel so robust I'm going to go buy a plastic made in China Santa for 17.99 and put it in my spartanically furnished apartment!
After that, run out and finance a new F150 for a 10 year term. Everyone is doing it! Come on in...the water is warm!
$7500 cash back. Awesome! Just think of all the Christmas presents $7500 buys!
Throw a 65" lcd on there while you're at it.
The unemployment rate and interest rates will go negative at about the same time.
I'm placing my bets. There's no fucking way this reptilian she man hikes rates. Fool me once... Fool me 987 times....
Houston we have lift off. USA jobs are out of control, the rest of the world be damned.
Turn your head now, baby, just spit me out
Don't worry about, don't speak of doubt
Turn your head now, baby, just spit me out" "December"--Collective Soul: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6exsatE-DUk
Does this mean I'll earn more than 10 cents per month in my savings account?
ZH can find a dark lining in a silver cloud no matter how bright that cloud is. Common, this is a strong jobs report.
The whole thing is probably skewed and adjusted so it is significantly disconnected from reality, sure. But we knew that before we saw the numbers this morning.
The numbers on their face are unequivocally strong. End of story. Trying to see things in there that don't exist is being biased to the downside and lying to ourselves to feed our own story.
Our story doesn't need such artificial pumping. Employment is weak for solid, fundamental malinvestment / underemployment reasons. Things that simply don't show up in these high level government employment numbers.
Really? or did you forget your sarc/ tag?
No sarc. I'm not interested in bullshit spins to numbers, whether the spin is to the upside or to the downside. Bullshit doesn't help me make sound decisions.
you are hopelessly stupid if you believe a single number in this BlS report
nobody believes it. it is a phony number, everybody knows that. however, if the phony number, by way of being intrinsically phony, which of course everybody knows, is at a certain level it actually carries moar weight, because it is made up. since there is no market there is only the fed, and the algos, seeing that the fed may act a certain way due to the phony made up numbers, makes it significant.
$45K average pre-tax take home salary ...down from $50K and stagnant at best. Continue to suck any commodity related jobs out of the economy (ie Oil and Gas) which were the main drivers of gains in the last 5 years and this is going nowhere fast. Healthcare costs growing by 6% annually along with aging population is sucking the growth out of the economy.
Its called "income redistribution" Some is redistributed to those not participating in the workforce, and the rest is going to those doing the redistributing.
FEd is going to have to manufacture some really shocking awful news event to not raise now.
"The Fed cannot and will not ever raise interest rates."
You underestimate their skill. They will raise OUR interest COSTS, while reducing OUR interest INCOME. Do you not notice that your savings draw .25% while credit cards and consumer loans are still charging much much higher rates. The low interest rates on debt are only available to the masters. The rabble has a much different cost structure. As a small business, do you think I can borrow at the same rates as APPLE, banks or the government? NO
I was just quoting what I have seen over and over here on ZH comments. The story goes that the Fed cannot ever raise rates because of so much leverage out there, which would bankrupt the over-leveraged system and kill the US with higher interest payments on its debt.
Is this good news or bad news? Good is bad for market and bad is the new good. Looking at the spike in metals; looks like the market doesn't like the news; yet in our fantasy world the volatility is magically going down....everything is awesome.
So where's the rate hike felon Yellen, you yenta bitch?
What a total crock of bullshit.
The more ridiculous the employment numbers, the more likely it is that the FED is looking for justification to raise interest rates.
But we still have 10 days or so. Between now and then, anything can happen.
Some cohorts of mine are working on new streaming feed software called the ‘Cooked Books Report’ so that you can have streaming lies pushed directly to your desktop 24/7.
I’m working on the graphics for them in which I have the DoL and it’s BLS depicted as a little asshole icon that grows in size and spews brown dripping glop on unemployment figure release days which eventually covers up half the screen and then slowly settles to the bottom where it makes your toolbar difficult to see and use for the rest of the month.
It’s a fun project.
~ DC
Does anyone believe 5%?
does anyone else suspect, as do i, that the algos were trading this number yesterday? sell the rumor (or insider info), buy the news?
Moar trillions in derivatives!!!
Pile the BS on deeper!
Expected to see headbanger posting...did he get booted too?
It appears he must have. It doesn't come up with any comments from him when I search.
His name was Headbanger!
The Obama troll is back. All hail the marxist boot licker
All hail the marxist ball licker!
FIFY
It's all good, until it isn't anymore...THAT is a fact! Soon everyone will see what a sham this fiat system has become. Even then they will refuse to believe it, until they are hungry and cold enough!
LIES ARE ALWAYS BETTER THAN EXPECTED.