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Previewing The "Most Important Jobs Report Ever" - What Wall Street Expects
As noted earlier, today's payrolls report is - according to Bank of America - the most important ever, and this time they may actually be right: this will be the last, most notable data point the Fed sees before its "historic" rate hike decision set to take place precisely 7 years after its decision to take rates to zero (of course it will be far more focused on the stock market every day until December 16).
What does consensus expect? Here are the big picture details:
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls M/M Exp. 200K (Low 130K, High 275K), Prey. 271K, Sep. 142K
- Unemployment Rate M/M Exp. 5.0% (Low 4.9%, High 5.3%), Prey. 5.0%, Sep. 5.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings M/M Exp. 0.2% (Low 0.1%, High 0.4%), Prey. 0.4%, Sep. 0.0%
Breakdown by bank:
- Deutsche Bank - 140K
- BNP Paribas - 170K
- JPMorgan - 175K
- HSBC - 188K
- Goldman Sachs - 200K
- UBS - 200K
- Morgan Stanley - 205K
- Citi - 210K
Here is a full preview from Saxobank's head of macro and quant strategies, Mads Koefoed
Payrolls last piece to FOMC puzzle
- All-important US employment report to set tone for December FOMC
- US nonfarm payrolls come on heels of ECB's disappointing easing measures
- Consensus is looking for a 200,000 increase in November headline figure
- Our aggregate forecast is for 217,000 jobs, after stunning 271,000 October jump
- ADP reported private-sector jobs grew by 217,000 last month vs 190,000 expected
- A report in line with forecasts would suffice for the Fed to begin tightening
- Post your comment below or go to our NFP page to keep up with the action
What a day yesterday was as Mario Draghi's European Central Bank failed to ease monetary policy as much as markets had expected. The ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points to negative 0.3% and extended its quantitative easing programme to March 2017 and expanded it to include regional debt instruments.
But markets had been expecting a bazooka, and that's not what they got. So stocks sold off and the euro surged, with EURUSD shooting up to 1.0873 from 1.0543 on the announcement.
The ECB meeting does not mark the end of this week's event risks. Far from it. Friday brings a suspenseful Opec meeting and, not least, the final US employment report (due at 1330 GMT) before the defining US Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 15-16.
The US jobless rate has declined relatively steadily to the 5% mark. Job creation varies.
Consensus is looking for an increase of 200,000 in November nonfarm payrolls (NFP), while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5%. If we get such a report today, it will be enough for the FOMC to proceed with the first rate hike in more than a decade.
Close match between unemployment rate and leading indicators
But will we get such a report? What do the numbers say?
- The ADP employment report shows an increase of 217,000 jobs in the private sector in November (190,000 expected), up from 196,000 in October. The job gains were broad-based, with 81,000 in small firms, 62,000 in medium-sized and 74,000 in large companies.
- The November ISM manufacturing survey disappointed with its first reading below 50% since 2012. While the consensus expectation had been for 50.5%, the number was 48.6%, and the employment component was only slightly better at 51.3%. This was, however, a marked improvement on October's 47.6%.
- The November ISM non-manufacturing report was much weaker than expected as well, printing 55.9% against 58% expected and down from the October figure of 59.1%. The employment component too declined to 55.0% from 59.2%. Nonetheless, these numbers are still consistent with robust growth in both the broad economy and the labour market.
- Initial jobless claims continue to be one of the most bullish labour market indicators. For November the series averaged 269,000 compared with 262,000 in October, and the reading for the survey week for NFP was 272,000. This corresponds to growth in NFP of around 250,000.
- Consumer confidence weakened considerably in November, according to the Conference Board, with its index falling to 90.4 from 99.1 and its Labor Differential index also worsening to negative 6.3 from negative 1.9 (a four-month low). The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was, however, little changed.
Based on these and other labour market-related indicators, I expect a reasonably strong employment report for November, though we could see a small disappointment relative to our own aggregate prediction of 217,000 jobs and the consensus expectation of 200,000.
There is a relatively high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. We would, on the other hand, have to see a significantly lower number — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.
* * *
Finally, here is RanSquawk's take on how the market will react:
In the final reading ahead of the FOMC rate decision on the 16th December, central focus is likely to remain on whether or not this report will impact on the Fed's decision to increase rates or not. Short-term volatility is likely to surround the release, given its focus, however, participants will likely take the release as more hawkish if there are minimal revisions to the previous two releases alongside a reading close to expectations. Additionally, this notion is likely to be supported further if the headline reading is particularly strong. In terms of asset classes, USD would likely see a bid alongside higher yields in US paper. However, the event could only have a short term impact due to the expectations for lift-off in December.
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195k is not picked so that'S the number 4 sure.
The jobs number will be....whatever number the Fed deems necessary to accomplish its goals for its shareholders.
noise
95 million still out of work......BOOYAH!!!
NOW is the best time to open a Soup Kitchen
You know, a Soylent Green soup kitchen. In the meantime... Food Stamps for everyone:
http://goo.gl/3G3r6i
Postpone the Rate Hike?!
But, WTF, I got drapped up and brought drugs for the party?
Sounds like the Fed is going to take your punchbowl away. Some party.
I don't say the number is 195k, I only say they will say its 195k.
Regardless, it's all about you.
The mgaic 8 ball says "It is decidedly so". What does that mean? About as much as this jobs number.
I'm going with 250K, because it's a nice round number and for no other reason.
The Fed raising rates by .25% in December:
Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
The Fed Fuckers are seriously trapped in a box, and they are running out of air/ time quickly.
The solution...
Bring Yellen and her cronies up in charges for high treason, and let them swing from lamp posts.
Violence is never the answer. Strip them of their weath and make them go find a job they can live on in the economy they created. Same for Blankfien and Dimon.
What is wrong with violence? A few good examples go a long way. Torches and pitchforks dude. It put's the fear of God in the rest of them.
Add some good PR to that lamp post part...we are doing it for the children.
A spray of machine gun fire across their twisting, limp bodies would be a nice touch, and, make sure they don't wriggle out of it.
Corzine? Throw him in a pool of piranhas and film him being eaten. As fish shit is how he should leave the planet.
The whole thing is a circus so what does it matter? Its not a real number, its total bullshit what is wrong with this media? We have 50,000,000 on food stamps and 90,000,000 no longer looking, how can you have a 5 or 6% rate? Its should be clarrified that it is 5 or 6% of 2/3rds of the American people, that is far more accurate.
6% of 66.6%. Would make a nice headline.
We are no longer capable of reality.
The real markets come back when the Fed loses control.
Until then it's rigged. Trade appropriately.
Don't forget the under-employed.
I listened to some cuntwad on cbnc saying he is waiting for "full employment" to do whatever he was digging out of his nose.
Took 10 seconds - was a channel flip - and this cunt says that - with a straight face - and the cnBULLSHIT "anchor" agreed with him.
Flipped the channel...and have not been back.
The narrative is ground into mollified minds daily - hourly.
Insanity
7 years, on the nose, really?
How magickal.
Seven years? Did someone break a mirror?
The reptilians are all into numerology.
and we know how much 'they' like magick numbers.
98,900 Draining $800 billion from an already fragile economy, lol good luck.
The BLS have ensured that the numbers will be better than whatever the algos and traders want.
Next year it's an election year and Goldilocks is coming back.
I prefer the 3 bears.
Counting sheep, back to sleep...
Presented with no comment:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-01/us-total-debt-soars-674-billion...
OK,
So, a high jobs number will tank the markets as the % Chance of a Rate hike goes to 95%, whcih will then delay hikes as the bear market officially starts
So a low jobs number rallies the market big time, and makes the economy look strong, which then send up the % chance of rate hike.
LOL rock and hard pkace.
163,000 for November and October revised to 216,000.
Combined net increase of 108,000.
At this time of year, the jobs report is a joke. Of course it goes up with all those temps hired for Christmas shoppers.
FED meet wall, wall FED.
Fuck it.
I'm sitting flat until the New Year. No more rigged casino for me this year.
After yesterdays effluvium flush with the Euro, this will be fuckin stupid.
Happy Holidays to all!
A special holiday FUCK YOU to Fuckbama, the cunt banksters, the MIC and all it's evil turdbags running it.
"FUCKBAMA" ...
(that ought to be his name)
(for accuracy)
I USE Fuckbama Sully!
Check my posts. Feel free to use it, AS IT SO FUCKING FITS THE FUCK!
Same shit-show economy, different day ... yawn.
Cybercoders tells me, every two weeks, there are "PHP jobs in Boise, Idaho": bullshit.
I get calls from weirdly named humans who can barely speak English, "Misteeer Sullyban?" (no - you, Mr. Mumbai, are full of shit)
So no - I don't believe the hype, but I do suspect corps are being nudged to publish reqs for jobs they have NO INTENTION of filling - and it works great to get more "necessary" STEM workers from India and China (like the Chinese Woman with a PhD, whose code I had to fix in 2013 so her 'cheapness' was a net loss - like that ... necessary).
BTW, based upon the C# and Java code I've seen since 2003 - THERE'S GRADE INFLATION IN INDIA AND CHINA TOO DUMBASSES!
Don't even get me started. over 6 months to find a qualified senior c# dev.
That sounds really sad.
Umm, last November was 423k.....
Thast's a big damn drop.
204k is about right for their goal seeking number, but the rate of growth is slowing drastically from a year ago, even with the part time jobs.
Weakest November Job growth since 2012.
Lowest 12 month job growth since May 2014.
50,000 fewer jobs per month added in 2015 than 2014.
Are things getting better or worse?
I just want to see the revision of LAST MONTH's numbers. 271,000 becomes....200k...
Seasonally adjusted. Another decade of Xmas part time working force.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
If everyone would just get 3 more part time jobs we could get to 600,000 in no time...
For the ball licking media it's all about Obozo, the one they worship. (Sad to be that fucking stupid)
So my guess is they will conjure up some fantastic bullshit number and before the year is out, say 4.0%!
It is all fairytail bullshit anyway!
Google: EB3 visa employment. Capture the US Government Common Core Math.
Holy shit! An un-thankyou from me for suggesting I look that up... /s
Employment-Based Immigration: Third Preference EB-3You may be eligible for this immigrant visa preference category if you are a skilled worker, professional, or other worker.
20 years exp. in IT here, Windows, UNIX, Fiber, copper, infrastructure, networking, etc. The feedback I get for sysadmin jobs is "you don't have the experience". I've only done that and management of sysadmins for 20 years. I guess they're looking for 'professionals', and being a white 47 year old male doesn't fit the new defintion of 'professional'.
Is it any wonder people are dropping out> I made $10k last year and again this year. Why in the world would I want to subject myself to evaluations from liberal arts degreed women who gatekeep on technical hiriing. Why should I strive to maximize my earnings, when that which is taken from me by force is used to fund that which I despise?
I want to have a job again (in a way), but obstacles are many, positions few, competition at an all time high, and the cuntocracy is now gatekeeping what was once one of the only refuges for men outside of blue collar fields.
Life is finite. Do I want to waste more of it slaving, err working, making other people lots of money while they treat me as a 'resource'. I remind you all of what corporations do to resources: They exploit them mercilessly. They strip mine. They clear cut. Once the resource is played out, they move on.
Like an old timer once said to me in a factory 25 years ago: "it all changed when they went from personnel to human resources". I didn't grasp what he meant, being young and naive at the time.
I am a human being, not a resource.
Corporate America: FUCK OFF!
Ball is in your court now Janet.... whatcha gonna do ??