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This Weekend's French Regional Elections Will Change The Face Of Europe For Ever

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Vincenzo Scarpetta via Open Europe,

First test after Paris attacks

French voters are about to head to the polls for the first time since last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris. This alone is enough to make the upcoming regional elections particularly significant. It will also be the first time regional elections are held after a territorial reform law was adopted last year that cut the number of regions in ‘metropolitan France’ (that is, excluding overseas territories) down from 22 to thirteen.

The first round will take place on Sunday 6 December. If no regional president candidate secures an absolute majority of votes – which looks very likely to be the case in all regions – all candidates that have won at least 10% of the vote in the first round gain access to the second round, scheduled for Sunday 13 December. The candidate who wins most votes in the second round is also granted a bonus of 25% of seats in the regional assembly.

In spite of French President François Hollande’s rather spectacular popularity gains in the wake of the Paris attacks (20 percentage points in one month according to the latest TNS poll for Le Figaro, for instance), his Socialist Party is most certainly going to come out of this election worse-off.

I say this because, in the 2010 regional elections, the Socialist Party and other left-wing forces won 21 of 22 regions – the worst score of the Fifth Republic for the centre-right.

Following the successful experiment of the local elections earlier this year, Nicolas Sarkozy’s Les Républicains party will contest also this regional election on a joint ticket with the centrist parties UDI and MoDem. Conversely, the left side of the spectrum will very much stick to chacun pour soi (every man for himself).

Front National on course for historic result

However, as in pretty much every recent French election, all eyes will be on the performance of Marine Le Pen’s Front National. According to the latest polls, the anti-immigrant party looks close to a breakthrough at the regional level – as the map below (courtesy of Francetv Info) shows.

151203_France itemprop=

The two regions in navy would be won by Front National, according to the most recent surveys conducted. The regions in blue would go to Sarkozy’s centre-right alliance, and those in red to the Socialist Party. The regions in grey are too close to call.

Front National has never governed a French region. It now looks on course to win two of them – which would be a historic result. One is PACA (Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) in the South-East, where Front National usually does pretty well and where Marion Maréchal-Le Pen – Marine’s niece – is running for regional president.

More significantly, the other one is Nord-Pas de Calais-Picardie up in the North – where Marine Le Pen herself is contesting the regional presidency. As the name suggests, this region includes the city of Calais and the surrounding areas – meaning that the on-going refugee crisis is likely to have played a role in driving support for Front National up. A victory for Marine Le Pen would mark a huge shift: the old Nord-Pas de Calais region (now merged with Picardy after the recent territorial reform I mentioned above) has been governed by the left since direct elections of regional assemblies started in the 1980s.

It also looks like Marine Le Pen and other Front National candidates will have another advantage compared to previous regional elections. Historically, in order to keep Front National out of power, the less voted of the two mainstream parties in the first round pulled out of the second round and recommended voting for the other mainstream party. In French politics, this is commonly known as the ‘Republican Front’.

However, essentially ignoring the suggestion made by French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, Sarkozy has said that centre-right candidates will stand in all regions where they gain access to the second round – which can ultimately make Front National’s task easier.

The outcome of Sunday’s first round will be interesting, for instance as regards the share of the nationwide vote parties will win. However, we will have to wait one more week for the final results of these regional elections. Securing control of one or two regions would further reinforce my view that a growing number of French voters are starting to see Front National as a credible alternative. No longer just a protest party, but rather a party they would want to be governed by – at least at the local/regional level.

The 2017 French presidential election will no doubt be a very different proposition, but the upcoming regional elections could make it even more difficult to keep considering Marine Le Pen as just ‘the outsider’ in the race to the Élysée.

 

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Fri, 12/04/2015 - 15:58 | 6877031 JenkinsLane
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Good

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:17 | 6877139 Noplebian
Noplebian's picture
'Front National on course for historic result'

It's Nuketime!

http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/road-to-ww3-time-to...

 

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:33 | 6877227 UnicornSkittles
UnicornSkittles's picture

Don't forget to stop, drop and roll if you see a terrorist.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/paris-attacks-france-safety-advice-terror-attacks/ 

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:47 | 6877299 ACP
ACP's picture

Change Europe forever?

Uh-huh yeah. It'll take a lot more than that to save France. 

No doubt Soros has some kind of backup plan for this.

 

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 17:19 | 6877505 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

'Fuck Hollande' please.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:56 | 6877372 Traderone
Traderone's picture

Absofuckin'lutely.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:18 | 6877150 rita
rita's picture

That will create panic in Brussels and in Washington.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:27 | 6877197 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Which region goes to the Saudis? I missed that lecture.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:48 | 6877321 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Brussels region.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 17:18 | 6877499 Lea
Lea's picture

"Which region goes to the Saudis? I missed that lecture."

The Center-right and the so-called "socialists"( that are about as socialist as Hillary Clinton is queen of England). That's what goes to the Saudis and the Qataris.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:43 | 6877283 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Here it comes... far right hipsters..... told ya. Buh bye EU.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:48 | 6877312 besnook
besnook's picture

if the hebdo and concert murders were state sponsored then they want the btshtcrzy parties to win elections in a push to put all muslims in fema camps to protect the populace. even trump is pushing that solution.

so this is the set up for ww3. everyone is onboard the defeat isis crazy train. the only problem is isis is us. no matter. the bottom half of the class don't know isis from isis(which is th e real reason why the official name is isil, can't have egyptian gods sponsoring israeli ops). they have done their job. the bottom half of the class hates muslims(which will include the sikhs and hindus just because. buddjists always get a pass). mission accomplished. hi ho hi ho it's off to war we go.

i hope the millenials appreciate the wonders of modern medicine from stem cell regeneration to computerized prosthetic technology and neat racer type ambulatory tech. they will probably get to see a lot of their friends using it if not themselves. in the meantime, stay warm. it's getting drafty in here. you don't want to catch a cold.

p.s. i remember 13 weekend kegger parties in a row until the day they picked the numbers. mine was 165. i'll never forget it.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 18:06 | 6877719 jm
jm's picture

No.  ISIS is not "us", it may be Obama-esque, but not "us" at all.  ISIS is a bunch of animals that should be put down with napalm.  Send pictures of the charred bodies to all the budding young jihadis around the globe with the Christmas message "Go home and get a job or die".

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 16:55 | 6877363 Jim Leyritz
Jim Leyritz's picture

Vote for the party that wants you to own a weapon.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 17:05 | 6877427 Seal
Seal's picture

you can bet NSA & GCHQ are in there 'helping' Hollande and his power grab

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 17:21 | 6877517 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

If the French vote for Holiday Sauce or Shit Couse Ze instead of Marine Le Pen then they deserve to see their nation disapear.

 

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 17:24 | 6877539 Insurrexion
Insurrexion's picture

 

 

Bonne chance mon Marie!

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 18:54 | 6877946 falak pema
falak pema's picture

rancid france and the coming boomerang.

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 20:16 | 6878241 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Sacrebleu

Fri, 12/04/2015 - 20:33 | 6878344 Pliskin
Pliskin's picture

It doesn't fucking matter who the French vote for...The NWO will decide who rules France.  The same as any election in the U.K. Spain, Germany...etc, etc...

Europe, you are FUCKED, good luck with that!

Sat, 12/05/2015 - 12:41 | 6880010 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

Correct.  The only 'hope' is an unprecedented economic collapse which will put an end to bread and circuses.  Nothing else will unass the serfs from their sofas.

Sat, 12/05/2015 - 00:57 | 6879139 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

Don't be so naive, FN will never be allowed to win. Or if they are allowed to win, its leaders will be blackmailed or bribed to follow the same agenda as before.

Sat, 12/05/2015 - 12:39 | 6880002 Lucky Leprachaun
Lucky Leprachaun's picture

Or they'll get Haidered.

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