Iraq May Seek "Direct Military Intervention From Russia" To Expel Turkish Troops

Tyler Durden's picture

Turkey just can’t seem to help itself when it comes to escalations in the Mid-East. 

First, Erdogan intentionally reignited the conflict between Ankara and the PKK in an effort to scare the public into nullifying a democratic election outcome. Then, the Turks shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border. Finally, in what very well might be an effort to protect Islamic State oil smuggling routes, Erdogan sent 150 troops and two dozen tanks to Bashiqa, just northeast of Mosul in a move that has infuriated Baghdad. 

We discussed the troop deployment at length on Saturday in “Did Turkey Just Invade Iraq To Protect Erdogan's ISIS Oil Smuggling Routes?,” and you’re encouraged to review the analysis in its entirety, but here was our conclusion:

The backlash underscores the fact that Iraq does not want help from NATO when it comes to fighting ISIS. Iraqis generally believe the US is in bed with Islamic State and you can bet that Russia and Iran will be keen on advising Baghdad to be exceptionally assertive when it comes to expelling a highly suspicious Turkish presence near Najma. 

You’re reminded that Iran wields considerable influence both politically and militarily in Iraq. The Iraqi military has proven largely ineffective at defending the country against the ISIS advance and so, the Quds-backed Shiite militias including the Badr Organisation, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah have stepped in to fill the void (see our full account here).

Of course that means that the Ayatollah looms large in Iraq and when it comes to loyalty, both the militias and a number of Iraqi lawmakers pledge allegiance to Tehran and more specifically to Qassem Soleimani. The point is this: Iran is not going to stand idly by and let America and Turkey put more boots on the ground in Iraq which is why just hours after Ash Carter announced that The Pentagon is set to send in more US SpecOps, Kataib Hezbollah threatened to hunt them down and kill them. Not coincidentally, PM Haider al-Abadi rejected a larger US troop presence just moments later. 

Now, Abadi has given Turkey 48 hours to get its troops out of Iraq or else.

Or else what?, you might ask. Well, or else Baghdad will appeal to the UN Security Council where Russia and China would likely support the Iraqi cause.

But that’s a little too meek of a solution for some Iraqi politicians including Hakim al-Zamili, the head of Iraq's parliamentary committee on security and defense who said on Sunday that Iraq “may soon ask Russia for direct military intervention in response to the Turkish invasion and the violation of Iraqi sovereignty.”

"Iraq has the ability to repel these forces and drive them out of Iraqi territory. We could also request Russia to intervene militarily in Iraq in response to Turkish violation of Iraqi sovereignty," he told Al-Araby al-Jadeed. 

Well guess what? Hakim al-Zamili is a somebody.

He was arrested in 2007 by Iraqi and American troops while holding a high ranking office in the Health Ministry. Zamili was charged with sending millions of dollars to Shiite militants who subsequently kidnapped and killed Iraqi civilians. Sunni civilians. More specifically, the US suspected Zamili “of using his position to run a rogue unit of the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia that claims loyalty to the cleric Moktada al-Sadr,” The New York Times reported at the time, adding that he was accused of “flooding the Health Ministry's payroll with militants, embezzling American money meant to pay for Iraq's overworked medical system and using Health Ministry 'facilities and services for sectarian kidnapping and murder.''

Here’s an interesting account from NPR ca. 2010, after parliamentary elections: 

At Friday prayers yesterday in Baghdad's Sadr City slum, one man in a gray suit seemed to attract as much attention as the preachers speaking over the P.A.

 

After a sermon that praised both armed and political resistance to the occupation of Iraq, many from the crowd of thousands rushed up to the front to congratulate Hakim al-Zamili, who appears to have won a resounding mandate as a member of parliament from Baghdad.

 

Though a celebrity here in Sadr City, many Iraqis call him a war criminal. Zamili was the deputy health minister during the ramp-up to Iraq's civil war, and he's accused of turning the ministry's guards into a Shia death squad, kidnapping and killing hundreds of Sunnis. Another ministry official who denounced Zamili disappeared and is presumed dead.

 

After being arrested and held over a year by the Americans, an Iraqi court acquitted Zamili after a brief trial.

 

“If I were really involved in those crimes, the courts would have convicted me,” Zamili said. 

Right.

Anyway, the point is that as we’ve been saying for months, Shiite politicians along with Iran-backed militias now control Iraq, which has essentially been reduced to a colony of Tehran.

There will be no unilateral decisions on the part of the US or Turkey to place troops in the country without pushback from Baghdad and everyone involved knows that when Baghdad pushes back, it means Iran disapproves.

As Zamili’s warning makes clear, Iraq (and thereby Iran) won’t be shy about calling in the big guns from Moscow when they feel the situation demands it - and the militas won't be shy about targeting the "invaders."

"Turkish interests in Iraq will now be a legitimate target because of Turkey's assault on Iraqi territories," Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, one of the Shia militias of the Popular Mobilisation said in a statement. Similarly, Harakat al-Nujaba called Turkey "a terrorist state." You're reminded that these groups have a reputation for fearing no one other that Khamenei himself. Not the US, not Turkey, not ISIS, no one:

We close with what Zamili said after the establishment of the Baghdad-based joint intelligence cell comprising officials from Iran, Russia, Syria, and Iraq: 

“The idea is to formalize the relationship with Iran, Russia and Syria. We wanted a full-blown military alliance.”

*  *  *

Bonus color from ISW:

The recent deployment into northern Iraq differs from past deployments in three ways. First, Turkey does not appear to have undertaken the action in order to contain the PKK directly, as there is no significant PKK activity in or around Bashiqa. The base is also located too far from other priority territory for the PKK, including Sinjar west of Mosul, to be used as an effective staging point for future operations against the PKK. Second, the Turkish battalion, deployed to an area within the Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBs) – areas that have substantial Kurdish populations but remain outside of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey likely intends to support Barzani and the KDP in securing control over the DIBs while also positioning its own forces to better influence what forces participate in the future operation to recapture Mosul, formerly an ethnically diverse city including Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen. Third, the Turkish deployment came only four days after Defense Secretary Ashton Carter announced that additional U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) would deploy to Iraq to conduct raids and intelligence-gathering in Iraq and Syria, an announcement that generated denunciations from the Shi’a political parties and threats of no-confidence votes against the Prime Minister, forcing PM Abadi to reject publicly the presence of foreign ground troops in Iraq. The Turkish troops thus deployed at a particularly sensitive time. 

Turkey also maintains close connections with key players in northern Iraq. Turkey has cooperated with Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani since 2013, particularly over crude oil exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Barzani and Turkey share a mutual distrust of the PKK, and the KDP currently competes with the PKK for control over Sinjar district. Turkey also possesses close relations with former Ninewa Province governor Atheel al-Nujaifi, who maintains a camp of former local police and Arab fighters in Bashiqa called the “National Mobilization.” Turkish support was essential for Atheel al-Nujaifi’s elevation to the Ninewa governorship in 2009. Finally, Turkey has close relations Osama al-Nujaifi, Atheel’s brother and the leader of the Sunni Etihad bloc in the Council of Representatives (CoR). Turkey will likely leverage these connections in order to secure greater control over what armed and political actors participate in operations to recapture Mosul. In particular, Turkey will likely support the Nujaifis over Sunni Arabs with whom Turkey has not cultivated relations.

Turkey’s deployment of troops sparked strong rejection from the full spectrum of Iraqi political actors. Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and Iraqi President Fuad Masoum strongly condemned the deployment as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and demanded that Turkey conduct an immediate withdrawal. All major Shi’a parties denounced the deployment as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty, with a leading Sadrist official calling for Iraqi airstrikes on the Turkish force if it did not depart the country. Another pro-Maliki CoR member suggesting that “a Russian force” could intervene to expel the Turkish battalion.

The U.S. will not likely press Turkey on the issue, as anonymous U.S. defense sources merely indicated that the U.S. was "aware" of Turkey’s intentions. Iranian proxy militias, however, could challenge Turkey elsewhere in the country. Iran likely ordered Iranian proxy militias to kidnap 18 Turkish construction workers on September 2 in order to pressure Turkey into ordering Turkish-backed rebels to cooperate with a ceasefire around the besieged Shi’a majority towns of Fu’ah and Kifriya in northern Syria. The kidnappings provided sufficient leverage against Turkey and the kidnapped workers were released after Syrian rebels enacted a local ceasefire. Iran could pursue similar actions against Turkish assets in Baghdad or in southern Iraq.

This situation may escalate further if Iran views the deployment as threatening its vital strategic objectives in Iraq or Syria. Iran rejects any foreign forces other than their own on Iraqi soil and backs the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Barzani’s rival in Iraqi Kurdish politics trying to contest his control over the Kurdistan regional presidency. Iranian proxies also recently sparred violently with the Peshmerga in Tuz Khurmato in eastern Salah al-Din proxies on November 12.

Shi’a parties will use the episode to pressure PM Abadi to strongly reject foreign intervention, particularly if reports that Turkey and Barzani signed an agreement to establish a permanent Turkish base in Bashiqa are correct. These calls could complicate U.S. plans to additional Special Operations Forces (SOF) to Iraq to as a “specialized expeditionary targeting force” that will conduct raids and intelligence-gathering in Iraq and Syria.

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Ms No's picture

The whole world is going to have to shake this disease off together.  Then the filth will slink back into a cave and start planning anew, we of course would be vulnerable to next opportunist while recovering from this cancer.  If we survive we should erect a massive edifice explaining how usery and sectarian strife is used to destroy nations and enslave peoples, these are their primary weapons.

Hey wait a minute... was there anything about banking written on the Great Pyramid?  /JK

Freddie's picture

White American males are the ones who would be expected to change things cheer on Trayvon and Jameis rapists and thug ball players in the NCCA, NFL and NBA like little girl cheerleaders.  This is especially true in the SE, Texas and Midwest.  They worship Obola's U of Mizzou thugs.  

Don't expect them to be any opposition as they cheer on white genocide and State University ball field by the hundreds of thousands.  Pathetic.  The Russians are serious people and they are also intelligent.   They don't do sports talk or fantasy football crap.

barroter's picture

Iran pretty much has already commandeered it. Lest be forget the US paying off the cleric al Sadr to cool his Iranian jets and keep quiet and run 1/2 of Iraq.

This is called "successful" US foreign policy.

 

lakecity55's picture

It has been too quiet in Ukraine recently. I suspect we will soon see the Other Hand of the USSA Zionistas.

HowdyDoody's picture

Quiet in Ukraine?

The UkroNazis have been bringing heavy weaponry to the front contra Minsk 2, have been firing every day, usually at night when the OSCE are safely out of the way filling in their expense sheets, shelling schools during school time, so yeah, pretty quiet.

http://novorossia.today/total-madness-kiev-junta-regime-bombs-school-wit...

UkroNazis attacking Donetsk airport from the village of Peski immediately to the west. 26 November

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xICpKpBNwHM

 

Infinite QE's picture

Edgar Cayce had a prediction that Russia would become the light of the world. Seems on target.

dogismycopilot's picture

Lukoil, Gazprom, Bashneft, and others - all Russian oil and gas companies and they are all in Iraq. They do their work, give money and jobs to the locals, and are pretty decent people. the only trouble is they are too nice and then the locals start ripping them off.

however, they (and the Chinese) are preferred to the American oil and gas companies and service companies by the locals.

Sizzurp's picture

The S400 is an awesome air defense system, but what happens when one of these FSA fighters gets within 2.5 miles of it, with a clear line of site and a TOW missle in hand?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xlOFavFZDQ

Jack Burton's picture

That is why Russia has several thousand troops on the ground to open up a security zone around the air field. Attack helicopters and drones cover the Russian ground troops. It is possible that an attack might slip through, but I tend to believe the Russians have sensors planted and troops in place all around the air fields. But who can forget the US airfields in Vietnam that were attacked and some even overrun, destroying dozens of aircraft at a time.

Your scenario is possible. I would not rate it high up, given the defenses around the area. Still, mortar rounds have hit close, so who is to say?

NubianSundance's picture

Some of the stuff Tyler writes kicks the drivel served up in papers like the times and telegraph into the bin where it belongs, and this one's another example. Bootlicking ends.

Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

'The best defence is the attack'

Russia needs time to rebuild its army

what is Russia's real possibility to bring and support a larger army presence in Syria? The logistics? Russia's objective is to gain time and serve as a mercenary air force for Assad. They have no intentions of getting deeper on this one.

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) Jambo Mambo Bill Dec 6, 2015 6:22 PM

Are you a time traveller from the 20th century?

21st century asymetric warfare and other weaponery appears to be above your pay grade. No offense intended. It's surprising what one can learn by reading. And we all have a lot to learn.

Some humility is a good start, especially on a Sunday.

Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

I think once someones' arse gets nuke then metrics will not matter much. Now talking about humility what are talking about son?! God loves you too

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) Jambo Mambo Bill Dec 6, 2015 7:15 PM

Educate yourself before embarrassing yourself in public would be my advice to your sort...before you get your head blown clean off. Best to know why you died instead of die for a laugh, schlemiel.

Jambo Mambo Bill's picture

'Embarassing yourself in public'? .... 'Head blown off clen'?.... ' die for a laugh'?

Are you for real kid ?

Whatever you are having on your mom's basement must not be so heathy for you.

Jack Burton's picture

Obama is a grey haired old black man who the CIA let sit in the White House to give the world a diversity president. The real decissions are made deep in CIA headquarters. In fact, I am betting the  US elites have a direct contact group in the CIA along with Pentagon liason, to govern foreign affairs. Obama is out of the loop. Look at him speak, his face betrays his helpless position.

lakecity55's picture

It was all constructed years ago by Allen Dulles.

After JFK fired him, he did not miss a beat. He continued to run CIA.

And the CIA is the nexus from which TPTB run the USA Deep State.

Sizzurp's picture

I listened to that interview on Lew's channel.  Very informative stuff.  I need to read that book.

Atomizer's picture

Obama and Aunt Esther running the US economy into the ground. United States Junkyard of America. 

Sanford and Son Fred Vs Aunt Esther - YouTube

/scarc

Ms No's picture

Yep, the Constitution probably wasn't the most perfect document but it never provided for the CIA to exist.  Now we are stuck with Barry the evil puppet and the mystery men behind the curtain.  It's funny that people watch the CIA coup governments all over the world but somehow they thought their country would be safe from them. 

They overthrew us first...lol  These guys don't have loyalty to anyone either, Barry should be very leary of them as they could set him up on a moments notice if it became beneficial for them to do so. 

August's picture

Uncle Ben, gone to Hahvahd.

Addendum:  If America were to lose its Dear Leader to a vicious redneck with a black rifle, we can pretty much know who organized that one.

GreatUncle's picture

I do like these pacts Russia,Iran,Syria when putting down a line for all out war. Very similar to France and Britain prior to the Germans invading Poland in WWII.

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) GreatUncle Dec 6, 2015 6:26 PM

Not quite, 'GreatUncle'. The motives, means and aims are somewhat different. That is concomitant with the BIS issuing its red alert that the financial system is about to fail, like a gangster burning down the house to claim the insurance and get rid of evidence of rampant crime. Bankster crime. All wars are banker wars until...

 

bankonzhongguo's picture

This is what they want - a complete Sunni - Shia conflict.

The more eff'ed up it is the better.

Now Georgia and everything east is in-play for Iran as well.

The funny thing is more than half of Iraq will be ceded to Iran operationally.

If things keep escalating you will see the US removed from Iraqi air-space.

This is why the US has been selling so much to Saudi over the last year.

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) bankonzhongguo Dec 6, 2015 6:29 PM

The USA has fallen hard and fast from its founding whereby it was to be a friend to all, trade with all, and do not get involved in foreign entanglements. Zionists love death, destruction, financial ruin - merely ramped up since the City of London got its un-Federal no-Reserve Board established in the USA, 1913, by blackmailing a President for his indiscreet sexual affair, and pushing through the vote in Congress during a near empty house on a Christmas.

Zionists: filth.

HoserF16's picture

Russia, Kicking Ass and Taking Names! NATO, chasing their tail around in a circle and spending Trillions. Weird...

LoveTruth's picture

Russia has allies on the ground both in Syria and Iraq through Iran.

Who are the US allies on the ground in both countries? Maybe the moderate trainees who went to ISIS after the training program.

US polices in the middle east are disaster anyway you look at it.

 

dogismycopilot's picture

American diplomats in Iraq are shit scared. especially since the green zone has been opened up to local traffic.

FiendNCheeses's picture

For fuck's sake, stop fretting and start bombing, already. I think between Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria and (hopefully) China, they got it pretty well covered.

Seal's picture

It's REAL interesting seeing China very quiet on the side lines. US gets embroiled again in the ME China might just grab Taiwan

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Would that be bullish for stocks?

Do I really need sarc tags?

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) Seal Dec 6, 2015 6:37 PM

Well spotted. China is Messrs Rothschild of the City of London's new best friend, recently upgraded in the SDR above GBP.

China's rulers are the new bitch on the block for the Internationale, globalists, communists: homocidal, war profiteers everywhere. They will betray Russia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa,  Britain, Scandinavia, the Americas...the whole world.

But first of all, they will betray the Chinese people above all else.

Australia is lost, sadly. It is totally dependent on China trade, and the City of London puppet masters.

August's picture

Well, the Aussies will still have some nice beaches... better than Somalia!

lakecity55's picture

China had better think about re-enforcing Ukraine and Syria before they go after Taiwan. If they knock out ZATO, Taiwan will fall like a ripened apple.

The Russians need manpower. THey have the Tech. the PRC has the Soldiers.

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) lakecity55 Dec 6, 2015 6:41 PM

lakecity,

But there's a bigger problem. The Chinese hierarchy bows down to the Rothschild led City of London, and its zionism; its delusion of world conquest.

Russia is an Orthodox Christian country which knows the slaughterhouse of the two-faced international financiers, their Bolsheviks, their zionism; disloyal to every land.

China cannot be trusted under current circumstances, imo. And I am sorry for the ordinary, industrious Chinese and their ancestry; a fine civilisation before the commies and international financiers wrecked it.

lakecity55's picture

Then Russia may have to go alone except with Iran.

I did not know the tentacles were as deep in China...

Russian resistance to the Red Shield goes back to the Czars; the Romanovs died for opposing the Red Shield!

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) lakecity55 Dec 6, 2015 7:23 PM

So it will be. Northern people and good people everywhere vs the money monsters.

Johnny Horscaulk's picture
Johnny Horscaulk (not verified) V for ... Dec 6, 2015 7:16 PM

that's not my understanding - I think the Chinese know that the goal is to eventually make them vassals.  That said, I agree they are not to be trusted.   They should be sending troops, at invitation of Syria, into Syria.

 

They yet may.

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) Johnny Horscaulk Dec 6, 2015 7:26 PM

The Chinese hierarchy were paid off with entry to the BIS SDR at a rate higher than GBP, the world's oldest pair with the USD, otherwise known as Cable.

The Chinese people know how it is to survive their 'leaders'.

Infinite QE's picture

"China cannot be trusted under current circumstances"

Most accurate assessment.

David Wooten's picture

Russian cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea should easily be able to reach Bashiqa.

lakecity55's picture

They could also hit the Incirlik air base, haha.

David Wooten's picture

The could but I don't think the Russians would go so far as hit within Turkish borders.

FranSix's picture

The Charge Of The Light Brigade

http://youtu.be/ZGw5DKX6U6w

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) FranSix Dec 6, 2015 6:56 PM

And this, FranSix:

Rudyard Kipling's Tommy:

http://www.poetryloverspage.com/poets/kipling/tommy.html

Kipling was jingoistic before his son died in battle, and then he came to know how plain soldiers are mere cannon fodder for the international financiers and their pet politicians.

The world was advancing toward a better place, slowly. And then the international financiers asserted their hateful grip once again, with their paid pet politicians in tow.

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it." (Mark Twain)


Jack Burton's picture

Reports of led coalition airstrikes on army positions () in Ayash & Mahumeedah in

I can't confirm this. But Twitter just light up with reports the US hit Syrian Arab Army positions with airstrikes, and ISIS followed up with a ground attack. SAA has dead troops. So far only twitter, lets hope this is wrong/

lakecity55's picture

Russia will have to fire up the S300/400.

US planes may soon start falling.

That bastard is going to get on teevee at 2000 hrs est and announce he has ordered masive air strikes against the SAA.

"To protect the "legitimate opponents of Assad."

V for ...'s picture
V for ... (not verified) lakecity55 Dec 6, 2015 6:44 PM

Honest people defy Daesh. It is high treason for any U.S. government to assist it. That is aiding the enemy in wartime.

Keep well, lakecity55.