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"Is The Bottom In For Crude?" Redux - Current WTI Contract Crashes To 2015 Lows
77% of CNBC viewers believed "the bottom was in" on June 4th 2015 (with crude having rallied in the few days up to the survey to over $63). It appears things did not work out as the 'smart money' expected. The current front-month (Jan 2016) WTI is now tradingh at $38.25... well below the August cycle lows and back to the lowest since 2009...
We note that $35 puts are the most-active option, and as Bloomberg reports,
"We are going to keep going lower," says Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors.
"We may hit $35 before the end of year."
At this rate, we may hit $35 by the end of the day.
So - is the bottom in now?
h/t @GreekFire23
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I say no. I will call it a bottom at $30 or $28. Then the shit will hit the fan.
eeyow I've got a call at $29 Apr 16
Best to close that call out when the price goes back up. Then buy some march or april PUTs my friend.
Best to understand that oil is going to be volatile, We need $100/bbl plus to justify current production levels, but consumers cannot afford $100/bbl plus prices.
$10, the game is on.
I would say we hit $37.75 before there is a mini-squeeze. Too many big players crowded into last-minute short sales below $40.
Not bottom but expect to bounce back up to the 40-41 range. The boys always take it back up. Then buy shorts agian if you havent already. Ive done very well over the past week. Thank you dark pool boys! i sold my PUTs/shorts this morning.
If Oil trades Just below $35 Dec 31 at close. You will see $25 oil next year sometime.
where you going to put the oil? The long on debt...think is going to suck as more supply keeps flowing...what date does Iran start shipping? Companies are going to get desperate to cover costs and pump more...when we already have too much!
When Russia collapes, that's when they will raise the price of oil back over 100. This is all politics and prick waving, might as well make a couple of bucks on it.
When the USSA collapses.... <--------- there fixed it for ya
Whe the USA collapses what will be the oil price in dollars (What are dollars grandpa?). Might as well put some bucks on it and breifly become a trillionaire.
we might be seeing TEENS...this economy is a disaster of debt and oversupply!
Not a lot has changed since the 26th day in Dec 2014, when I had projected USD 30-40 price of oil.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/saudi-arabia-ready-20-30-40-oil...
Except that wrs1 is not to be found! And he did own shale oil wells! :)
Some assessments or semantics may have been here or there, but the price of oil has gone in the direction predicted when it was still at USD 65 last Dec.
Expect lower lows going further. Volatility shall take oil towards even USD 20.....but no one can guess from here, as to where the price of oil will be in 12 months or 24 months from now due to innovation in green energy, wars, weak economy, massive unemployment, closure of factories worldwide etc.
One thing I must admit has changed in my views that for the first year, Saudi was responsible for the lower price of oil, but now Saudi is not. Since about middle of 2015, US is purely responsible for bringing oil price down due to its gigantic control over pricing from CBOE, LME, paper trading etc. This is because US does not import oil so it does not care where the oil price goes while it's domestic public benefits from the lower oil prices.
Meanwhile, most oil producing countries who depend pretty much solely on oil exports continue to struggle.
>This is because US does not export oil so it does not care where the oil price goes while it's domestic public benefits from the lower oil prices.
Fixed that for you. Indeed, this may be the first time I've used that to actually fix something for someone without trying to be snarky.
Dubi haha. Everybody and their mother were projecting $32 oil at that time. Google it.
Link it for me please.
Meanwhile, please enlighten yourself and see what 'everybody and their mother' was forecasting between Oct 2014 until Dec end 2014. They were all forecasting USD 60 to USD 75.
oil forecast
So I expect a link or an apology....
When crude rallies - 'experts' always fortell it will rally higher. When crude is in bear market - the same 'experts' tell us it will go even lower. If you watch the price graph, there were several occasions when crude jumped on no news, it was clear it was manipulated. There is no market, only ZUUL.
I made a killing at the market today, I shot my butcher! (rimshot)
I had no choice, he demanded $12.99 a pound for delmonico steak.
Let's see, 77% of CNBS's viewers would be about eleven of them...
The future has arrived. "It's NOW! It's WOW!" Oil prices will settle at a new price far below the cost to produce and yet, producers will continue to produce it in abundance and at a great loss. This is the way the world worked out for the rescued boys in the sequel to "Lord of the Flies". They took the lessons they learned on the island and took over the world.
Now let's talk about the "gold glut" again.
Oil is going into the 20's at some point...
The bottom will be in when Gartman goes short.
With the gas savings, buy more Christmas gifts, muthafuckas!!!!!!
This will be the last Christmas before the economic collapse!!!!!
I bet on 1 dollar oil.
Paper COMEX gold is supposed to be hitting a bottom any day now, according to Paper Bugs.
The bottom is in for crude alright, but it's 50%lower, down at $20. See if you really see the rarely observed "V-Bottom" on today's monthly chart here:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m1
First time I've ever seen "CNBC viewers" and "smart money" only one sentence apart...
If you sell any type of commodity product you must ask yourself how low will prices go this week?
Just a guess, but the bottom will be in when the price of a gallon of gas is more than 50% tax in most states, so, in NY, that would be about $1.37 because state and federal taxes in NY are about 69 cents.
Gas around these parts (upstate) range from 2.08 to 2.20, so we've got a ways to go, so oil should head into the 20s early part of 2016 as GLOBAL WARMING™ kicks in for the Northeastern US and hammers heating oil suppliers.
For anyone who doesn't know, we've had about 1 1/2 inches of snow in upstate NY, when our average at this time of year is closer to 12 inches. We are past the 10% mark of the snow season and temps are going back into the 50s later this week. Looking like a green (actually more grey) Christmas.
A mild winter will kill the oil compaines, which cannot come a day too soon, along with the bankrupt banks, shithole governments, etc.
I've been prepping for the crash since 2010, and I'm still prepping. $20 oil should just about be the capper... er, crapper.
$37 handle just hit
I know who to blame:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fqFMnavPlks/VmW8ja50QuI/AAAAAAAAN9I/CPkv2gELcZ...
A little lower to the fib 200% extension at about $36.50, and then test $36.00.
Is the bottom in?
NOPE is my vote.
Is the bottom in ?
NO, Why?===>1.http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.com/2015/10/oil-update-approach...
2.http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.com/2015/11/energy-stocks-xle-a...
Very interesting indeed.
Woppe di wop, we’ve reached the $37 oil handle now http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Didn't i told you oils will go down to 26$ at least?
I said that? Not because i'm an expert trader. I just saw running text during 2008/9 on cnbc, and oils touch that number intra days "casino's" before rebounded before closing.
Since these years it is worse conditions than that 2008 era? I said at least oils will go down AT LEAST that 26$..
Dumb Bull Ratio (CoT non-reportable longs in total non-reportable) is low enough for there to be a decent-ish bounce.
I'm long Oil CFD as of last night (Oz time) at 38.33 - time will tell if this becomes trade #130 in a row that is closed as a winner. I'm at 124 in a row so far for 2015, and have 5 other open positions - Long NIK, 2x Long Gold, and 2x long EURUSD - that I expect to close at a profit before closing the new oiler at $41.
I realise that 124 wins in a row violates the EMH as badly as a Gatorade Bottle up the Vord - if markets are a random walk it has odds of 2124:1 ... and yet I've done it twice. So some documetary evidence is in order for the doubters out there.
It should be far more straightforward to put images in comments (like you can on StackExchange)... but the comment area on ZH is still so 2005. If the HTML works, the image of the summary section of my beer-money account (funded with $550 in August 2015, topped up with a further $3k in October to enable more beer) will appear below. Those familiar with MetaTrader will recognise this as the summary part of the reporting functionality. (Update: I can see the image, but it doesn't show in the final comment. The image itself is at http://www.axiomanalytics.com/images/2015-12-08_07h41_00.png )
I'm not often wrong about this shit - and while I'm here... folks who think economics/econometrics doesn't work should post their summaries.