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Chain Store Sales Collapse Following Already Disappointing Black Friday
Just as we warned, based on credit card data, this holiday spending period is a disaster. Following disappointing sales over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend, there has been absolutely no follow-through momentum as is usually seen. Chain Store same-store-sales crashed 6.3% week-over-week...
This should not be a surprise with a mere 1.7% YoY gain that fits with credit card data...
Well, if this year the annual comps are solidly negative then applying the same delta, it would mean that the "seasonally adjusted" retail sales data will be about 1.2%, a 70% drop from last year. Not sure how one can spin that.
As Stone McCarthy details,
The Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index was down 6.3% week-over-week for the period ending December 5.
It appears that shoppers were sated after the hefty promotions offered in the prior week associated with Black Friday. There may also have been a drop off in brick-and-motor shopping activity while many on-line retailers were offering deals for Cyber Monday.
Charts: Bloomberg
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They need to remove the trampled from the doorways.
And those weren't mannequins.
Peeps just SKINT!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1K3zYmJ8Jc
The sales figured need to be seasonally adjust based on a percentage of income calculated by total employable population / number of people actually employed / combined salaries and we will see there was a 20% increase in retail sales See easy.
It bee the "Consumerless Recovery."
''Yes we can!"
Recession is the new Recovery.
You guys just wait 'til they build Factories in all those abandoned malls! We'll show 'em!
Check out Georgia's Sales tax numbers for November 2015. Most counties and cities budgeted for sales tax growth for fiscal year 2016. They are gonna be hurtin' by April.
Georgia’s net tax collections rose by 7.5 percent last month compared to November of last year, Gov. Nathan Deal announced Monday.
The $1.64 billion the state Department of Revenue brought in during November doesn’t include another $76.7 million generated during the month from the new transportation funding bill the General Assembly passed last spring. Including that money, net tax revenue for the month was up 12.8 percent over November 2014.
Individual income tax collections for the month increased by 11.5 percent, while gross sales tax collections deposited during November rose a minuscule 0.2 percent. Net sales tax revenue fell by 1.3 percent.
Corporate tax revenues in November increased by $5.1 million.
Nink, there is a position waiting for you at the BLS.
There is much more to life than shopping. You can take out the trash, mow the yard, watch a sunset or wash cloths, go to work, repeat.
two hoots said
"go to work"
thats so last 70' and 80's
Yeah, It's easier when your clothes turn into cloths.
Sorry English language savior, I cook with cloths over my shoulder.
You can also drink wine, watch a Warrior basketball game, make love, meditate, or even sleep.
I kinda have to shop for groceries sometimes, but that's about it. I usualy wait uontil 10 o'clockl at night when there is not many people in the store, and I can zip around with my list and git er done.
Fuck shopping, I really hate it. I can go in and out of a shoe store or other clothing store faster than anybody else in town.
Leaves more time for the wine drinking and other important stuff.
Better graph here http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar
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#Blackfridaymatters
Seasons Beatings...
The employment picture is fantastic, jsut ask Yellen and Obama, how could this be that no one is spending?
And a rate increase right before Christmas should seal the deal...
Yep, didn't they say the Fed would have to remove like $800 billion in liquidity?
Gonna be like a car running without oil.
pods
Let's ask some of the 93+M who are not working but are not counted in the official unemployment numbers. Maybe they can tell us why they're not spending large. Lol
here's what Jan's going to say
Although the Economy is impwoving, it is not as much as we anticipated in the Models, so we awe going to hold of the Intewest wate wise until the next meeting. ;)
Are you snidely suggesting
that she bears a startling resemblance to Elmer Fudd ??
No, it's how jews sound when they twy to be Umewican
Be vewy vewy quiet. I'm hunting wabbits.
Time for 330 ramp at pit open. Can't have logic creep into the markets.
Come on Algos. You know you want to go up at 4650 on NQ futures. This is your gspot . Take it back to baal's favorite number 4666.
Nope, not one person saw this coming. You have to laugh at the tribe who runs this world believing they are sooooo smart.
Devil number holds and time to fade to Vwap. Now full fucking retard algo time.
Deck the malls with piles of pink slips...falla la la la la la la la!
So rate hike is for real then
99.9951% of people don't have a clue as to what "black Friday" means.
It's just Bread and Circus fodder for the elite. Kinda like WWF for the 1%. Can't say that I blame 'em. When the Utubes come on it's pathetically entertaining.
the brown truck shall deliver the chinese crap this year ... malls are for watching movies and eating a cinabon
.... or for active shooters due to the 'gun free zones'.
That pesky ol' WEATHER got the consumer down again. Sigh....
FUCKING WARM WEATHER!!!!!!!!
Ruins it everytime. Warm weather is a fucking terrorist.
Except for when it's cold weather that ruins everything...
FUCKING COLD WEATHER!!!!
Cold weather is a fucking terrorist.
Warm and sunny weather in SC has been keeping the taxpayers from spending moar this year on X-mas shit! You see, it's so warm and sunny, the taxpayers have neglected their shopping.
Same here in the Northeast -warm & sunny. I guess we're not spending all of the savings from our lower heating bills and savings from not having to buy gas for the snowblower on cheap Chinese junk...... Or we could be broke. ;-)
When weather changes temperature throughout the day and voila!!! climate change.
Well my neighbors certainly have been shopping! Their front yards are littered with all that inflatable Chinese plastic holiday crap. Looks terrible during the day.
Your neighbors are just taking their cue from the gubmint: when confronted with those pesky maxed out credit card bills they apply for a new one.
I'm sure the Homer Simpson blowup is a delight at night though. :)
Pellet Air Rifles could prove out to be useful.
My neighborhood looks like DisneyLand so lighted up. Reminds me of that Christmas film when he turns on the switch and everything blows out.
[NB: I apologize in advance if I have offended any reader for my use of the almost-banned, un-PC, infidel word, "Christmas."]
LOL, like some sort of a surprise.
Outsource jobs for lower and lower pay and eventually comes back to bite.
Just like hoping for another world war thinking your special and will survive and profit because your a billionaire setup with your bunker in the southern hemisphere. You find out at that point your billions no longer matter. Your body guards with their weapons realize their more powerful than you at that point. It's survival of the fittest. It's your a liability time. All they have to do is shoot you and take control of the resources (food,water,etc).
"All they have to do is shoot you and take control of the resources (food,water,etc)."
It is ironic that you mention this, yogibear. I have a friend who is a police officer in the DFW area of Texas. He said as much in the event that we have some national crisis and/or if martial law is enforced. He said that he has a gun and he is trained to use it, and, if necessary, he will simply take the resources he needs to survive.
LOL well that retard won't be living long, retribution against the police will be swift.
We are agents for 15 different vendors to the retail trade, with a customer base that includes Department Stores, Mass Merchants, Distributors, larger Independent retailers, etc.
Orders have been smaller and slower to come for the past 30-45 days, with a lot of hedging and delaying as managements watch the budgets more closely. The emphasis on lower inventory levels and turnover is increasing from already high levels. That's fine, but also problematic when dealing with a long, strung out supply chain.
I got an email blast from one of the factories we represent with essentially no-profit deals for orders that can ship by year end. They need to reduce inventory by $1million per their bank. Another vendor just sent a bunch of deals on inventory they own that is sitting in China available for immediate delivery to 3 different ports.
Starting to feel a whole lot like 2008/2009, a time when retailers and vendors who supply them was turned inside out. 2016 has the makings of disaster written all over it. Many companies are on thin ice now, having never truly "recovered" and struggling to make do with less business. I leave this afternoon for 2 days of meetings with buyers at one of my largest accounts, and I am somewhat apprehensive. I'll get my share, but the pie next year will almost certainly be smaller.
"2016 has the makings of disaster written all over it."
Oh boy, yes indeed.
For the past several years, after a new mall opened in the heart of downtown, holiday traffic was an absolute nightmare ... to be avoided at all costs.
I inadvertantly found myself smack in the middle of the area this past Saturday, and ... nobody on the roads.
Weird.
Where did everybody go?
11b. My friend works for an energy equipment supply company and zero new orders for 3 months now. Layoffs will start after Christmas if it does not pick up their CEO announced last week.
There is a newer outdoor mall about 45 min drive from my house. It is in an area where the area is new and less than 10 years old. It's a nice area and the drive is nice as well. Here in Fla the weather is nice this time of year so being outdoors isn't a bother. Since it was a nice night and a nice drive we decided to go there and watch the Christmas Tree display. The lights jam out and flash to the Trans Siberian Ocestra and other Christmas music. Plus they had a church there siging Christmas music. It was nice. We ate at Red Robin then went to the light show. Since I am lactose intolerant, after dinner I had to find a restroom and went into Macy's. After useing the head, I looked around the store and the place was fucking empty. More emplyees than customers by at leat 3 to 1, minimum. And most of the other shops were closed as well. Closed? Really? It was only 8:00 pm. I know it was a Sunday, but as far as I can remember, in Dec stores stayed open till 9:00 or even 10:00. This is not a poor area either. It is a middle to upper middle class area. Maybe I should head to a Macy's around here in a more densly populated area.
They're staying away in droves here too in desert cities CA: empty half mile stretches of city streets, empty store aisles and parking lots. Empty HD, LOW, WMT, WholePaycheck and others says they're all lying, hiding the top line collapse, maybe booking 'final' sales when product leaves the supplier, or some more advanced accounting scam. Unbelievable how slow equity markets remain in discounting the next great recession, hiding in plain sight, here and everywhere, for months and years.
The real opportunity: within 9 months a two year old car with high end label - you will be able to steal!
historical blue book curve for two year old car - high end - will be smashed by 20%
for those waiting on the sidelines - will be the season to be Jolly!
Yep. I am one of those waiting. Always buy used high end autos with records and low miles, then run them up to around 175K. I also think low, low interest rates will be with us for a lot longer.
Retailers XRT closed Thursday last week below the Aug. 24 crash close, and they're going there again this week, probably today. On Target, On WalMart, On Prancer and Vixen:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30339916066
That can't be true. This is the holiday season! This is the selling period that retailers plan for all year. How could retail sales right now NOT be higher than last August?
Are you sure that chart isn't inverse XRT? I mean, if retail sales were REALLY that bad, the stock markets would be falling. What? Oh, wait, gotta go, something about a margin call...
I'm reading one story after another of people standing in an empty Dept. store. I've done the same recently. Very weird feeling.
I tend to avoid malls like the plague anyway, but didnt get the conection to on line sales data. Other hedge article stated cc sales were a neg. clue but again no online data specified. What is that doing?
If I could post a pic
Lafayette la
Building another gi fucking gantic shopping area with Costco as the super anchor
I said after they finish I don't thing there is 1 retail store that HASEN'T been built
This area is so heavy oil/gas
The TV says that the area is so diversified that it can stand low oil
I say bullshit
Yes there is UL University but it's not some huge campus the size of a city
they want so desperately to avoid negative implications of the further collapse in oil/gas that they choose to ignore the obvious. its a very human cognitive bias/characteristic. easier to see in others than in one's self too.
most corp retail development decisions are based on at least 1 yr old population trend data. like once a town/area gets to a cetain population level all the pos restaurants try to show up.
very few can make decisions based on a not-rosy outlook. 'house prices keep going up, i guess they'll just go up next year too' kind of thinking, all the while forgetting that at the end of the day incomes drive rents which drive prices etc. few can truly create a two-sided argument with valid pros and cons and then logically go through it. their desire for it to work out weighs perceivable risks.
that is why 'no one say it coming', 'whoocuddonode'; and the theme on tv is always that any data is good if the mkt goes up and if the mkt goes down, the data was bad. there is little ability to read data in its own right....they wait for the mkt to tell them what to think.
Futures looking like they're getting a little nervous about next week's FOMC meeting and doing what they must:
SELL! MORTIMER! SELL!
Nice to see the markets turmoiling pre-open.
I love the smell of burning futures in the morning. Smells like Victory!
I recant my catch-phrase from 2008-2010
FREE HOUSES FOR EVERYBODY! adding, ZIRP 4EVA!
Who needs to be a retail consumer during the holidays? 95%+ of the stuff they are trying to sell is absolutely unnecessary. How many igadgets does one really need? Fit bit? Just use a simple pedometer. How many big screen 4K ultra HD tvs--which most cable providers do not have the bandwidth yet to accomodate with content--does one need? The remainder is usually "steeply discounted" 20%-30% after being marked up 300%-1000%. Obviously, they are not discounting, the made by slave labor crap steeply enough for anybody to be interested in purchasing it. And that only goes for those potential consumers that are not flat-a$$ broke or not over-indebted to be able to buy it, assuming they wanted to? So how big is that actual stupid-enough-to-buy-at-inflated-prices, but somehow financially responsibly and unindebted, consumer demographic they are apparently trying to target? The answer seems to be: much smaller than they thought. Glad the MBAs in manufacturing, retail, and Wall St. figured this all out before the holiday season.
Hey, man, what you suggest is un-American. You gotta have a FitBit and a huge fucking TeeVee.
and a new car
college edmunikashun
odious debt
multiple credit cards
rent
taxes
lunch with your "buds"
spangles
iPhone
underwear you wear outside your clothes that say "JUICY"
new shoes
lawn gnomes
vacation
wife with needs
I can go on and on and on....
I got rid of the wife and now have soooooooo much more money...
I love my huge TV from 2005 which is the last time I bought one....thing will last forever, just replace the DLP lamp once a year!!
We know where it leads. To a shallow, unsatisfying life. It's a vain attempt to replace what core values have been lost in the US. People are drifting. They've lost control of their impulses. They are controlled. But the whole thing may be starting to unravel, as once a person has gathered every device and slathered themselves with them, they start to realize that they feel no better and the high was temporary. Maybe people are finally starting to question what's truly important. Maybe.
My extended family finally woke up this year, and at the Thanksgiving gathering we drew straws among all the adults to end the orgy of useless gifts we have passed out to each other every Christmas. Now, instead of a car full of gifts, the wife & I will show up with just one present for each of the 2 names we drew. Aside from the financial relief, it is also a huge time saver and stress reliever for my wife, and everyone in the family feels the same way. This one act by our family reduced holiday sales by hundreds of dollars. My guess is, more families are figuring this out, too. Combine this with the facts that as the population ages there is less want or need for wanton consumption, the is no wage growth for the average family, and inflation is kicking in big time, and retail has to suffer. That which can't be maintained won't be maintained.
Same [almost] here. I went over a buddies house where we sat and talked and drew straws who would try to bang the new petite blonde realtor in the skin-tight mini skirt down the block.
It's the thought of "Giving" at holiday time that counts!
"Reggie, Xmas sales are down! My 'Muslim Importation Schemetm' is working! This is proof!"
"Nobody has jobs, Munchkins. They can't afford Xmas this year."
"Nonsense. Everyone here in the White Hut has a job. You're just being negative. It's the Muslims!"
Good pt, I'll bet the stores are packed in the DC/Virginia zone. Flush with ponzi money via tax reciepts and capital gains.
We did something similar more than a decade ago.
My extended family drew names when I was a little kid... early 70's. Although I don't think it was a protest more than just a way to not go broke.
HA HA. You are 7 years behind my family, when I started a revolt and put an end to the madness. Large family and some adults were pissed. Started with ONE name in hat and present (instead of 10 !!).....Guess where we are now......ZERO (except kids of course)
That's right ZERO, when we realized we were just spending $100 each on stuff we could buy ourselves when we actually needed/want it. The last 2 Christmas in my eyes have been wonderful. Good food and family.
This year my 70 year old parents (who were not pleased when I said no more birthday and Christmas presents) actually told me last week I was correct and did the right thing !!!!!!!!!
The time probably has come for my own family to do the same thing. Once everybody starts having kids it probably should change. I really don't like that my nieces and nephews might start expecting something.
After seeing Victoria Secret Trampling on Black Friday , convinced America is definitely Trash Trash. Long Live Hookers
I thought the US was supposed to be cheering on Muslim immigration and forget about Christmas? After all, the Golfer in Chief said the US is not a Christian nation. You folks need to make up your mind!
I think it's the opposite.. plug in your Cmas lights and piss off a Muslim or an Atheist Boycott Chic Filet.. didn't work they were glad more People found out they had Principles. and yes i know yours was sarc. :)
Retailers were scared of off-sales on negro Friday so they blew their wads on the pre-sales, which sucked up all the discretionary monies avialable.
"Send the kid out with some money to spend, Mortimer! We gotta stimulate spending!"
I found that there were better prices leading up to Friday, and some stores increaced their prices a bit from during the weeek, just for Friday....
I call it the snoozing clerk Meter..
shopping at the mall and you walk up to the sales clerk and they either are sleeping standing up, or yawn in your face as they wake up.
shoppers are getting smart, wait till the last minute, and the stores panic and drag out the 60% off signs. and even if they do shop they clam up in January and February like a pucker. Low inventories just mean the customer doesn't have anything to choose from..
If retailers are counting on me they're s.o.l.. i am pissed off.
Anecdotal data point:
I gather up all the stuff that I no longer need from all my different businesses, hobbies, etc and put them up for sale on eBay a few months before the end of the year.
In previous years, all my listings had very high viewings and almost everything was sold before the end of the year.
This year, most of my listings have ZERO viewings and ONLY 2 items have sold.
I see VERY CLEAR evidence that buying is very depressed.
Yep, ebay is a little slow right now, but wait until after Christmas. There will be some people (six or eight) with cash that will buy.
I generally sell old Playboy magazines. Pre-holiday is good. Post-holiday great. Probably a lot of guys not getting laid, plus it's cold out.
Actually, my sales have been better than expected.
Standard disclaimer: Long nudity. (BTW: Playboy is making a huge mistake by going non-nude in 2016. Who do they think they are, the Fed?)
My eBay listings (3 so far) are selling for the 'Buy It Now' price within 1 hour of posting the auction. I am pricing at the low end of comps. People will buy but they are looking for deals.
Well, to be fair, 35 years of trickle-down (i.e. voodoo) economics will do this to a nation.
At a certain point.... you run out of powerplugs to add a new television screen...
Eventually the game of Monopoly becomes no more fun. You either flip the board and walkway or start a new game FRESH. After 40 years we have reached that point.
Reminds me of this, haha:
http://existentialcomics.com/comic/19
But BLACK FRIDAY continues this FRIDAY.
OK, have to add this.
There are ~112 days until the first day of Spring. This past year, I spent most of April-October living on my 5 acres in a motorhome, off the grid. My big expense was ICE for my cooler, but that was ameliorated by friends with refrigerators (FWRs) who let me freeze plastic containers filled with water.
Cooked on a coleman cooktop or my grill with propane. Solar lights.
No utility bills.
No data plan (library five miles away has wi-fi and they let you recharge your laptop or cell phone - mine's a flip phone).
No car payments.
Drank alot, got a great tan, had a great time. This year will be even better and even more off-grid.
My point being that consuming is a wasteful enterprise. Money is unnecessary to a large degree if you have your priorities in order.
What did you do for food?
Well, I bought food from local supermarkets, and, because it was my first season at camp, I didn't get any crops in the ground. As the weather warmed, however, and i started making friends with farmers (they're everywhere... it's apple farm country) I began buying fresh produce. Prices were unbelievable. Here's a sampling:
8 pounds of tomatoes: $3.00 (yes, three dollars)
3 huge (average 6 lbs. each) spaghetti squash: $2.00
This is from a gardener 600 yards down the road.
I did manage to harvest about six quarts of black raspberries and I have an apple tree and a pear tree, but the bugs got to them. I've got a friend who is going to help me with spraying this season.
As for the upcoming spring-summer, I plan a pretty sizable garden with lots of garlic, mint, squash, tomatoes, lettuce, peppers, etc., so this season I'll spend less on food. I may be able to trade some produce for a chicken or some pork. Lots of possibilities, but, the kicker is there are so many farmers around, I almost don't need to grow my own, though I will, plus about 200 tobacco plants because I smoke. (yes, I've grown tobacco before and cured and smoked it - nothing tastes better than a smoke from yor own tobacco).
So, yeah, food costs, but it's pretty cheap around here. This winter I'm staying in a rehabbed 20x30 shed, so I have most of the creature comforts. Next winter, I'll be in my own shed/home.
True. Properly cultivated, you can harvest more food from a small garden than 1 or 2 people can ever eat. Home canning solves that problem. My dad gardens still in his 80's, and I get vegetables and fruit off his trees. He says he can't use it all. Good luck to you.
By tomorrow the story will be how great sales are. Full steam ahead. Pay no attention to reallity, just look at "the market" we must be doing fine.
If you want confirmation of this, simply ask someone you know who watches TV regularly.
They can fill you in on the great economy, record Black Friday sales, how the 2nd Amendment is for racists, how black lives matter, how Cruz is ahead of Trump, how not all Muslims are like that (NAMALT), how Hillary is qualified to lead this countr (or why Trump is not) etc.
They can tell you about Tom Brady or Kim Kardashian.
What? You don't want to know that shit? You don't watch TV? What are yoru some kind of freak? Do you wear hats made of aluminum foil too?
That's what I'm talking about.
I can't bear to be around those immersed in the propaganda narrative. Their company becomes tiresome rapidly. I imagine they think the same of me. Good.
BarackFriday deals, free shit for everyone!
Maybe people spent their Christmass cash on health insurance, instead of toys for their kids. Nah, that answer is too easy.
*delete