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It Will Take 10 Years To Recapture Mosul From ISIS, US Army Officer Says
When Mosul fell to ISIS in June of 2014, the world was shocked that the group - which at that juncture, was just beginning to make a name for itself - could possibly have overrun the US-trained and armed Iraqi army to take control of the country’s second-largest city.
"The city fell like a plane without an engine," a Mosul businessman who fled to Erbil said at the time. "They were firing their weapons into the air, but no one was shooting at them."
That account reinforces the notion that the Iraqi regulars effectively ran away in the face of the ISIS advance. Here’s what Ash Carter said after Ramadi fell: “The Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight. They were not outnumbered. In fact they vastly outnumbered the opposing force and yet they failed to fight and withdrew from the site...We can give them training, we can give them equipment. We obviously can’t give them the will to fight.”
No Ash, you can’t, and when you hand over equipment to soldiers with no will to fight, that equipment usually ends up in the “wrong” hands which is exactly what happened after the Iraqi regulars abandoned Mosul. After routing the Iraqi forces, ISIS seized 2,300 humvees and then proceeded to loot some $429 million in cash from the city’s central bank. This made Obama’s terrorist “jayvee squad” one of the most well armed, well funded extremist groups in history.
18 months and a whole hell of a lot of ineffectual “coalition” airstrikes later, ISIS still controls Mosul and indeed, the group’s propaganda machine has released images from the city which seem to suggest that all in all, daily life has returned to some semblance of normality (as much as life can be “normal” under the rule of a self-styled medieval caliphate). Here’s an example:
Well, now that the Kurds have retaken Sinjar, and now that the Iraqi army supported by Shiite militias and Sunni volunteers are set to launch on offensive in Ramadi, some wonder if there will ultimately be an attempt to wrest control of Mosul from “the terrorists” (as Sergei Lavrov calls ISIS). Of course taking back Mosul would deal a severe blow to Bakr al-Baghdadi’s troops and it would also impact the group’s lucrative oil trade, so we somehow doubt that a major campaign is the offing. Nevertheless, we found the following take from a US soldier who fought in the city to be interesting given his contention that recapturing Mosul will take no less than ten years.
* * *
Excerpted from “So you want to take back Mosul from ISIS? Are you ready for a 10-year seige?,” by Thomas E. Ricks, as originally published in Foreign Policy
There’s a lot of loose talk about “re-taking” Mosul. Here are my thoughts about how difficult it would be. In my non-General Officer, very tactical-level opinion, an assault on this place would turn into a ten year siege, perhaps longer.
My dour thoughts are inspired by my experiences fighting there. I served for a year in Mosul from 9/2005 to 8/2006 as an infantry Platoon Leader before ‘surging’ to Baghdad until December. I owned the battle space on southwest side of the city (near FOB Marez): Tal al Ruman, the Dick Cemetery, Shit Creek, Al Amils #1 and 2.
We fought insurgents for months and we had ground superiority and three large bases (Courage, Marez, Diamondback) ringing the city, plus lots of police stations (5 West etc) and Iraqi Army posts. We also had SKTs (Small Kill Teams) set up for ambushes on hot corners. My brigade just missed the Battle for Mosul, fought by Deuce Four the previous spring and we heard the stories from those guys who did the battle handoff. It was unpleasant to say the least. Look at the stories from Fallujah — a city that is 20 percent the size of Mosul.
If I were in charge of taking back the city, I don’t think I’d risk dropping any SOF or spotters the night before my invasion. I’d rely on drones for my reconnaissance and spotting during my 36-hour artillery binge on the ring berm and other key targets. Then I’d get a whole lot of helicopters and do a night air assault, probably with my back to the Tigris, and push west and east, with tanks coming from the northeast side.
After we pushed through, grabbed the squirters, and sealed Mosul off from the rest of the world, I’d settle in for a siege and a ten-year war of attrition. Some folks think we could starve them out. But it’s a big city and carpet-bombing is not an option. Smugglers exist everywhere. Resupply is not far away. There are exurbs to the east (Bashiqa 15 miles) and west (Mawali 25 miles). Bashiqa is a Yzidi (or at least was) village and Mawali is Sunni. My battalion raided the latter village one night, with my platoon as the spearhead, and got two of three of our HVTs. For a village requiring a battalion sized raid, even nine years ago, there’s probably still a lot of anti-U.S. resentment and support for the bad guys — lots of prospects to help resupply. Then there’s Hamam al Alil 20 miles to the south, with river access, and a small garrison of IA (I think it used to house an IP school). Our line platoons rotated down there to command that garrison for a few weeks at a time — total vacation at COP Aggie in Hamam al Alil. Of course Dahuk and Turkey is a short drive to the north. Thus — there’s a lot of little hamlets ringing the city that can be used for resupply, enemy staging grounds, or worse.
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All of that assumes the US is really interested in taking back Mosul in the first place.
If you ask an Iraqi, they'll tell you Washington would just as soon let ISIS have the city or, as WaPo put it earlier this month, the Iraqi public thinks "that the United States is supporting the Islamic State for a variety of pernicious reasons that have to do with asserting U.S. control over Iraq, the wider Middle East and, perhaps, its oil.”
So yes, Mr. Ricks, "there’s probably a lot of support for the bad guys." The question is whether it's the locals supporting them, or Washington itself.
On the bright side, retaking Mosul won't ultimately end up taking 10 years because once the Russians get there and once the IRGC is officially on the ground battling alongside Iran's Shiite militas, we'll likely find out that routing Baghdad's army isn't as difficult as The Pentagon would like you to believe.
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okay no more, but one question, what is that yellow shit that you vomit up after about 2 dozen yaks?
I never made it that far. maybe stomach lining? as I once posted though, puking is an art not appreciated enough. no way a full on chow blow on to your buddy trying to score equals a quiet choke out back at the bar's garbage bins. Likewise a 2 dozen wings and beer hurl is not the same as a no food Jaeger bomb and whiskey beer blow. now luckily I am beyond this stuff. I have no firm new years eve plans however. Please advise
i advise one glass of champagne with your wife and a nice kiss. but i have been married for 33 years. all my tales of daring do are from the late 70's and early 80"s. did you ever wake up in an entirely different state of the union?
Geezuz - good man yourself. The only union I'm in is the USA? did TDay in VA - had to buy an orange hat to be sure even though my bro has 200 acres.
To clarify this lunacy, the U.S. Military Industrial Complex needs long lasting wars to fill their pockets.
From that perspective the Afghan war was a great success and now they need an other Afghanistan.
Zorg will explain it to you https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt1W0F0yObg
men who stare at goats
So many here have said it so well. I just wanted to add that my BS meter is off the scale on this one.
I could take that place with the Arkansas National Guard. My question is, how much longer do you think the US is going to be a world empire with idiots like this guy in charge. I long for the days of Patton and MacArthur when we at least had real men in places of leadership. I don't want any feedback on their ideology. They were real, get-it-done men with character that lived by American principle and code. Something that has been educated out for generations.
I am going home and watch Patton tonight and remember what it used to be like in this once great nation.
The author is a fraud - check out flagit in the thread earlier. all the same - in the name of america and the memory of Patton - slap something
Patton, a great man indeed, was murdered on orders of the crooked Wild Bill Donovan of the OSS (a precursor to the CIA).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/3869117/Gener...
10 years is pretty good time considering that the only things the air force drops are bombs in uninhabited sections of desert, and weapon supplies near ISIS bases.
There may end up being a lot of new harvested organs on the market if RT's article about ISIS attempting to recruit Chinese citizens turns out to be true. If they ever ended up being even remotely successful and became a problem for China it would be short lived. They would probably send their severed and scorched peckers to Washington in a box. Kung Pao ISIS dick in a box..... You know that Barry would eat that.
Link?
Taking a large city quickly requires EITHER large numbers of troops to do a cordon-and-search...
OR
Very unrestrictive rules of engagement.
Wars are ultimately contests of will. The expensive armaments and protective equipment ultimately serves no more purpose than to preserve your side's will at the expense of the other sides'.
When the US invaded Iraq, our allies complained that the US Army was too 'kinetic', which meant too forceful.
The subsequent 10 years of non stop deployments, and constant reinforcement of non kinetic means has most jumiors, and many seniors mentally unprepared both in concept and fact for the demands of fighting an organized opposing army rather than a rag tag collection of ill-trained unequipped insurgents.
Which is ironic. Ironic because individual soldier skills are as high as they've ever been. They're very ready, and over qualified to get in a duel with habib and his AK... And all Habibs' friends too.
But not prepared at all to handle someone with tanks and artillery, and most importantly, and most importantly, and most importantly ORGANIZATION.
Two days late on every decision, and unable to visualize any maneuver more agile than a frontal assault.
But, hey, they've been too busy deploying for the last 15 to train unit tasks.
The whole army today operates like the 1-year rotational replacements to places like Korea used to.
Given that the original 9-11 volunteers are now 5 years from retirement, and have no concept how unit tasks used to be trained...that's not surprising.
Today they could, given 18 months to learn force on force unit skills, surpass the 1990's Army.
But it has been so long that there are too few, who are too senior, to do all the needed teaching.
These recipes often make a dish known as disaster.
If the US says 10 yrs, it is because they want Mosul to belong to ISIS, The Russians wikll get it done in a few months.
Gee, if I lost a loved one in any of those bullshit wars over there....I'd be bat-shit crazy with anger at
1. the US Gov scamming everyone into going to war over there in the first place...
and then
2. walking away and leaving it all to the asshats
...talk about fighting / dying for nothing. Viet Nam , the sequel.
and the Russians may be coming sooner rather than later.
Turkey has refused to withdraw from Iraq and the 48hr deadline is up. Baghdad has appealed to NATO to force Turkey to GTFO but we all now that is akin to asking the alcoholic to dump the hooch stash down the drain.
never going to happen, the Iraqis might as well have asked a brick wall and saved themselves the polite yet so very condescending brush off. what's more I believe Baghdad already knows it but figured they had to try if only to get it out of the way.
so next up will be requesting direct military intervention from Moscow since the Iraqis can now say that if NATO won't help we'll just have to go with plan B (or P in this case). and I'm fairly certain that bombing the shit out of some turks who invaded Iraq and refuse to leave will not be a tough sell in mother Russia all things considered.
after that it's on to Mosul because, well. why the hell not? they're already in the neighborhood and it's not like anybody can take issue with the bear going after the terrorist capital of Iraq, at least not without completely outing themselves as supports of said terrorists.
it's win, win, win...Iraq gets there city back, the Russian army gets some exercise and gets to play with all it's new toys, ISIS gets an old school ass beating and Putin gets to cement his status as the president everybody else on the planet wishes they had.
and he gets to make DC look like the "sick old man" of the western world...again.
At some point, Russia is going to be overextended unless another country teams up with them. Maybe Iran.
And how will Russia supply and support those extra soldiers?
Via the Bosphorus?
They may seek access via Iran, but if you were Putin, would you want to risk that?
Scrutinizer
isis = 35000 payed solders average age from 15-35
hmmm~~ 10 years sounds legit to me to kill 35000 cia and kgb payed solders
usa! you can do it in one month without shooting a single shot nor drop a single bomb!
just stop paying them their wages
Just leave it to the Russians and the locals.
So I just finished watching an older PBS special about ISIS. It's clear that both the Sunni's AND the Shia's are brutal. They despise each other in a way that I don't think we could ever understand in the West. They have no compunction about the brutal merciless killing of each other, whenever and wherever they get the chance.
Everybody and his dog has been there including the French, the British, the Turks (Ottoman) and now the Israeli's, the Saudi's, the Iranians and the Russians. Obviously the 'west' has no itention of leaving the place be. The more we intervene the crazier they become. The more oil we buy from them and Saudi Arabia, the more money they have to wage Global Jihad. Bush I had no business going into Kuwait. Bush II had absolutely no business going in there on a lie. So we are screwed either way now. If we don't kill the fucking psychopaths they will surely multiply and come for us. If we do go in, who's side to we take, because neither of them or any of them have any honor or dignity whatsoever.
"Watched a PBS special" regardless of your analysis following... you really need to challenge your sources. Listen, I'm no better but always question your source and challenge it. look at the thread here on 10 years to take Mosul and flagit posting on the cred of the 'author'. unreal. just sayin - no offense
Sounds like W shun't of lynched Saddam.
PBS - Pentagon Bullshit Syndicate.
Remember, it was Paul Bremer who said, "Sunnis on the left, Shia on the right."
Divide and Conquer
They'll spend first nine & 1/2 years dropping leaflets asking them to "Leave Mosul Please!"
The Kurds took it in 2003, they would take it again if they weren't being hindered by the 'enemies' of ISIS, again. Maybe we could have ISIS stop threatening them with regular gas attacks. If anyone supplied them with heavy weapons and coordinated full air support, it'd be over in days. That ain't ever going to happen.
So much disinformation to sort through. Mosul is where the name muslim comes from (why is it used for the whole religion). I was taught that the religion was mohammedanism (followers of Mohammed unless you focus on Ali or Fatima) and that Islam means 'surrender' (surrender to the will of god). The Kurds are ethnic iranians who speak an iranian dialect so they are an odd ingredient in the mix. I've seen Yazidis described as christians yet we can read that they folow Shatan (satan) and are thus regarded by many as devil worshippers. Confused much? I am. It would be helpful if we knew the ethnic dynamics of the middle east rather than just being fed vague brandings.
doop
That is a Muslim slur. Yazidis venerate angels, but are monotheists. Their main Angel deciding an individual's fate is the Peacock Angel which is a representative of Satan (Iblis) to Sufis.I thnk they often get lumped in with Assyrian communities in their main area Sinjar.
IIRC they are Kurds. I think as many live in Germany as Iraq or Syria
From what I've been able to gather, the Kurds are descended from the Medes. They were the lesser component of the Medo-Persian empire that overtook the Babylonian empire.
10 U.S. years. Ir 10 Russian days.
Remember that ISIS captured the Mosul Dam but then gave it back because, without ongoing expert maintenance, the water will eat through the gypsum bedrock and send a 50-foot tsunami through Mosul.
With 21st-century technology and 19th-century rules of engagement (as they pertained to dealing with savages), conquering the entire Muslim world would be stupidly easy.
BULLSHIT! The Iranian Militias, properly massed and supported, would take Mosul back in about 3-4 months. It would be ugly, brutal, heartless, and completely effective. There is an Iraqi MP who summed it up best, "one religious fervor can only extinguish another religious fervor".
I keep saying it - and am being proven correct - only Russia and the Iranian Militias can save Iraq. The Iranians don't want to rule Iraq, but they do want to influence their Arab neighbors. Probably do a better job of it than Iraq's current American DOS idiots.
The thing is, everyday, like clockwork, the oil money for Iraq gets deposited in the Bank of Mellon NYC where the US than gives Iraq its 'allowance'. To be free Iraq needs its own bank account. I think a Ruble or Yuan account would suffice.
That's where the real battle will occur.
dup
I agree, with one caveat.. Iran DOES want to rule Iraq, if only by proxy, as they do under Assad in Syria..
The holiest cities of Shi'sm are in Iraq.. And Iran, in order to validate their ascendancy over the Shi'a faith, want control over Karbala, Najaf, and Samarra (where the Sleeping Imam is believed be waiting to rise as the Mahdi)..
And of course, all of that Iraq oil is a prize possession as well..
Iraq, and its heavily Shi'a population will then serve as a great jumping off point to destablize and control Saudi Arabia and Islam's holiest cities, Mecca and Medina..
Which will likely result in the Saudis either having to directly ally with the IS, or face overthrow by them, and/or the Iranian backed Shi'a.
Scrutinizer
America wants perpetual war for profit
(so that its cabal capitalists can withraw huge money from US govt)
and its creation, ISIS is the solution
Strategically ISIS is great for low oil prices and OPEC cartel breaking, good for Raytheon too, ruck mullah Iran-Iraq, ISIS is their problem, let them dump blood and treasure for few hundred years.
How long did it take the Allied forces to march to Berlin?
That was against an opposing force that had a Navy, and an Air Force...