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Jeff Gundlach's Most Bearish Presentation Yet: The Complete Slide Pack
In what may have been Jeff Gundlach's most bearish presentation to date, explainably under the theme of "Tick, Tick, Tick", and with references to such board games as "Kaboom - Baloon Busting Game", "Sorry", "Dynamite Shack", "Trouble" and "Twister", DoubleLine's (with an AUM of $80 billion set to surpass Pimco's TRF quite soon) founder was at a loss for words trying to explain just why Yellen is hell bent to hike rates in one week, just when the global economy is not only clearly not in the required shape, but warning that the outcome from a Fed rate hike will lead to a dramatic repricing (lower) across all asset classes.
As Reuters notes, despite soft growth in the U.S. and weakening global growth, the Fed is "hell bent" on raising interest rates because it has said in many speeches that it would do so, Gundlach says. "It's possible the Fed pulls another Lucy and the football," Gundlach said, referring to peanut character Lucy yanking a football away from Charlie Brown.
Gundlach, who has been warning that the U.S. Federal Reserve should not tighten monetary policy in December, cited a number of other asset classes that are signaling deteriorating conditions. The commodities market has been facing monstrous declines with copper prices, as an example, down 37 percent since July 2014 while "the breadth of the equity market may be the worst ever." Gundlach characterized commodities as the "widow maker" of the markets.
Overall, Gundlach said it is "unthinkable" to raise rates with junk bonds and leveraged loans struggling so much.
Gundlach predicts that the Fed could end up looking like Sweden's Riksbank, which hiked back in 2010 and 2011 only to have to quickly reverse and quickly slash rates. The Fed "philosophically" wants to raise interest rates and will use "selectively back-tested evidence" to justify an increase in rates, he added.
His most dire warning: "If the Fed hikes it will be a different world; everyone will have to unwind at the same time. If you think junk bonds are bad now, just wait."
As to whether he is buying any beaten down assets here, the answer is probably not: "we are looking at real carnage in the junk bond market," Gundlach said. Gundlach also said it was too early to buy high-yield junk bonds and energy debt. "I don't like things when they go down every single day."
As for equities: "The breadth of the equity market may be the worst ever" and no, he is not a fan of the overall market either: "The S&P500 has been whistling through the graveyard."
Finally, what could prevent a rate hike: "market turmoil would be the main factor that delays a hike by the Fed next week."
In that case, the market has exactly one week in which to "turmoil"...
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BOOM....
Weekly MacD is the clock. By the time it crosses over, we'll be at 1900 on the S&P
If not now, when?
Gundlach seems to be talking his book; what, does he need more buyers to exit his positions before it is the "right time" for the FED to raise rates?
What will happen if the FED doesn't raise rates, and continues the fantasy?
More wound up debt and mis-allocations of leveraged crap and real resources.
Tick tock, to the half-white house will be rid of O'robyomamma.
If the Fed hikes rates, the kaboom will blow up in their face so bad, it'll make you regret Halloween.
They will hike because Obama told them to. And Dear Leader, who knows more than anyone about anything, just ask him, wants a hike for one reason. If there is no hike then the GOP always has a comeback to his bragging about "creating so many jobs" and such a "healthy" (cough, cough) economy. The retort is, "Yeah well you had rates pinned at 0 for the entire eight years of your presidency, so how great could it have been". If they raise even once or twice, the opposition can no longer use that line. Hence Obama has decided that they will raise once or twice come hell or high water. If it causes trouble, he will just blame it on republicans somehow. Fucking worthless little prick.
Yay, I can hardly wait until we get the next piece of shit puppet to occupy the White House for the next eight years.
Dr Doom #2.
Marc Faber move over. You'll have to develop the laugh a bit.
IMF just turned a Cold War against Russia has now turned into a full-blown division of the world into the Dollar Bloc (with its satellite Euro and other pro-U.S. currencies) and the BRICS or other countries not in the U.S. financial and military orbit.
The US and EU now in a Cold war with the rest of the world, and in the hot war with some parts of the world.
http://thesaker.is/the-imf-forgives-ukraines-loan-to-russia/
need a 1 point raise in interest rates. fed doesn't set them anyway the market does
Unfortunately, the Fed essentially sets them. In order for markets and capital to function properly, a floating interest rate is necessary.
What????
Uuhhhhmm, that's some seriously funny sarcasm right there. Please tell me that's sarcasm.
after all these years doc you need a sarc tag from me? jeez it has like 5 levels of sarcasm.
Freak - no shit. You've been around longer than me. Well, that's what happens when you don't post a lot.
The Fed, with a little help from its friends at the BOJ and ECB, control the entire curve.
Graphs, Facts, Charts, cycles, fundamentals, historical market indicators, and trends. This shit don't matter anymore. it's all good baby. Don't fight the fed. They got this.
This is my opinion; OLD YELLER will not pull the lever, but the rhetoric will be played up till the day or day before the decision to make the largest short squeeze the world has ever seen!!
I'm placing my bets on calls and guessing that leading up to the "event" the market will trend lower to draw in a many bears as possible; then boom another raping by the Mafia Banking Cartel.
Then again I might just sit on the sidelines and wait. I do know this, if they do raise rates (if .25% counts) then it will kill the worlds economy unless they have figured out how to back-stop or perhaps a .1%-.15% increase instead, thus saving a little face and mitigating disruptions.
I am reminded that Jesus said "hope that your flight in NOT in winter"...that means it will be, which winter...who knows? I, personally, will not be around to find out..Lord willing.
He didn't have the balls to disclose that he has played strip poker with Yellen... He lost and had to play 7 minutes in heaven, in the closet. It took him 5 minutes to part the hairs in her bush, just sayin.
We beg you to please change your avatar; really.. unless you like sex with men like Gatman.
GartmansTaint? I'd say you're 12-13 yrs. old. Right? Whatever you are, you're definitely a moronic fuck stooge. Get your pervert self out of here.
Someone in another thread told him they loved his avatar.
Possibly another 13 year old.
Fuck off Mister one week....sick fucker
They won't do it. Watch the media freak like last time and provide the cover for the fed to not raise. Everyone will come out of the woodwork and pump up the impact....like Gundlach. Doomsday scenarios, etc.
Do you smell the largest "short squeeze" in wallstreet history? I do.
I don't try to predict what the market will do anymore. I just work and save money.
I don't try to predict what the market will do anymore. I just work and save money.
SO I CAN BUY MOAR SILVER !!!
<p>DJ Jazzy Jeff and that other guy were years ahead if him.</p><p><a href="https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfHtiCVA5d8">https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfHtiCVA5d8</a></p>
"The Fed "philosophically" wants to raise interest rates and will use "selectively back-tested evidence" to justify an increase in rates, he added."...yeah, right, a fucking dart board perchance? fucking illegitimate asswipes!...........and fuck you NSA!
Where is it written that fund "managers", banksters, and "traders" are entitled to sell their self fabricated merchandise to each other at par and a profit? And keep collecting their "fees"!
How are they different from the rest of us, who have to eat our losses?
When the world knows the Fed has screwed up big time for two decades ... at some point the answer is NOT "more of the same" with another name or number.
Why not rising rates and a Santa rally? If the Fed is in control....
If 25 basis points will cause the end of the world, it's too late and the end of the world has already come.
This is Gundlach begging the Fed to keep the free money coming because, in his own mind, he's not rich enough.
No shit. If a .25 rise will blow up the system, it's a matter of when, not if the systems blows without the hike.
Holy shit, we're so fucked.
Remember guys, the market runs on a herd mentality, not logic......one strike of lightning can stampede them right over a cliff......
Sooo....... I guess its official now, we have a Jenga market.
Grit your teeth and just Do It, Yellen!...Ben, wouldn't!
you'll feel better afterward, I'm sure
I don't believe 25 bps will do much as they've already been priced into the short end of the curve. (See 2 year note chart)
And if they've been priced in the treasury curve, it's been priced into other markets. This is the best telegraphed hike in history, so I don't see a BOOM. More like a whimper.
How does one "price in" QUADRILLIONS in derivatives? Is there a chart for that? As Jim Sinclair stated in Sept. We are in uncharted territory. There is no historical precedent for what we are about to witness. We cannot say to ourselves, "been there, done that."
The balloon is under so much presser right now. .01% additional PSI is all it will take. Listen to a witness to the inception of the derivative ..
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp
Go to 3rd interview with Wanta Dec 19 2014.mp3
Begin at around the 18:00 mark and listen to a real expert explain why things will go BOOM ..
I'm a real expert, not that dumbass. Derivatives aren't necessarily even interest rate sensitive. So the amount or notional isn't necessarily even relevant when discussing interest rate changes.
And come back in 12/20 after the Fed has tightened and nothing has happened and tell me I was right and your "expert" was not. I'll be waiting.
Janet has not had any lately...anyone out there willing to do a pity f--- so she relaxes a bit.
I'll fuck her...fuck her real good.
J.P. Morgan analysts wrote that the three best leading indicators for recession have been credit spreads, the shape of the yield curve and profit margins.
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Investors in high-yield bonds are expecting to see their first negative return since the start of the credit crisis in 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deteriorating-junk-bonds-flash-warning-signs-for-stocks-2015-12-07?dist=afterbell
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Hey KY, if you know what's good for you, please don't quote marketwatch on this site. Unless you are taking a contrarian position or using /sarc.
"It's possible the Fed pulls another Lucy and the football," .....LOL!.....Imagine Obama`s and Ryan and Mcconnells budget deficit for 2016, when all those capitol losses are put on income tax returns after a rate hike caused a crash.......
I believe a rate hike when I see it........