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What The Charts Say: "Things Are Far From Well"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via NorthManTrader.com,

Next week will see the last Fed meeting and final OPEX of the year. Suffice to say it won’t be a boring week. We have a trade plan for it and I presume so do you. Whether you are bullish or bearish I think it’s fair to say that markets have a lot riding on not only next week, but how things are lining up for next year. Wall Street remains largely bullish although the risk of recession is rising at some investment houses and Janet Yellen is quick to dismiss these reports as they do not fit with the narrative of a rate hike.

Be that as it may, there are several charts that are continuing to raise major concerns and I wanted to take this moment to present these charts together in one post. And the primary concern is that markets are in the midst of a major topping process. But don’t take my word for it.

Let me just present the evidence and you can judge for yourself.

$SPX:$CPI

CPI

Stocks over their 200MA:

SPX 200

Guggenheim equal weight:

RSPW

Junk:

JNK

High Yield:

HYG

High/Lows

HL

Value Line Geometric index:

XVG

$NYSE:

NYSEM

Crude:

crude

$ES Weekly:

ESW

Small Caps weekly:

TFW

The cumulative message of all these charts: Things are far from well. Now one can choose to ignore all these charts and none of them suggest we see an immediate correction of size, however many of them suggest eery similarity to 2007/2008 in structure. And if this structure plays out the so called “Santa” rally may not be all that it’s cracked up to be.

I can’t say with certitude of course, but what does the evidence suggest? You tell me.

 

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Tue, 12/08/2015 - 17:53 | 6895985 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

"It's just a flesh wound."

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:11 | 6896062 Angel_Eyes
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Tue, 12/08/2015 - 19:43 | 6896502 Chipped ham
Chipped ham's picture

Rubbish 

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 17:55 | 6895994 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

That once again (as usual) bears are gonna take a red hot poker up the arse. Nobody learns a damn thing.

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:00 | 6896018 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

No way the Fed and its crime syndicate do not at least bump the averages back up through 'the decision' next week.  Gotta keep up ponzi appearances.

After that, look out below.

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:02 | 6896033 Archetype
Archetype's picture

It's been a long time since I saw something this bullish.

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:30 | 6896176 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

No way I dont see Santa and the first week of 16 being very bullish

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 17:56 | 6895997 Tor.19
Tor.19's picture

Maybe Jim Grant is correct and there is a misallocation of captial.  Time to prune the dead branches being propped up with ZIRP.

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:10 | 6896058 vq1
vq1's picture

niiice. Though I probably shouldn't get too excited. We could easily achieve new highs this week. 

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:14 | 6896088 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

Looking for oil in all the wrong places... (The picture Tyler has a the lede inspired this) with apologies to the musician...

 

I spent a lifetime lookin' for you
other countries that were never true
Playing a fools game, hopin' to win
Tellin' those sweet lies and losin' again I was lookin' for oil in all the wrong places
Lookin' for oil in too many faces
Searchin' their eyes
Lookin' for traces of what I'm dreaming of
Hoping to find a friend and partner
I'll bless the day I discover
Another country lookin' for oil I was alone then, no love in sight
I did everything I could to get me through the night
I don't know where it started or where it might end
I turned to a stranger just like a friend I was lookin' for oil in all the wrong places
Lookin' for oil in too many faces
Searchin' their eyes
Lookin' for traces of what I'm dreaming of
Tue, 12/08/2015 - 18:29 | 6896165 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

How would the smart guys trade a Yellen no raise next week agains the Opex expiration on Friday?

Not convinced that a Yellen Push on the rate hike wouldnt be bearish to be further re-inforced by the Opex?  THoughts  Any change of a dump down to 1950 before the Santa Rally?

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 19:17 | 6896386 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

the smart guys (not me) would probably be all cash. she probably doesn't raise then we get a short term mo money run up. the people question the fact she didn't because the economy sux, i jump back in my inverse funds, and we start down again. then the plunge protection teams and gold cartels come back refreshed from christmas buying/shorting with both hands to fix things. my guess. 

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 19:22 | 6896399 CAPT DRAKE
CAPT DRAKE's picture

SELL, SELL, SELL!  SHORT EVERYTHING!    THIS SHIPS GOING DOWN!    Sorry, but you guys have been saying the same thing for years now.   You can expect a, at most 10% drop.  The demographics should support a drop as the baby boom sell off stocks, but guess what, they aren't selling and neither should you. 

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 19:48 | 6896521 Chipped ham
Chipped ham's picture

10% max down?

Based on what line of thinking?  I see nothing but up from here. Why so doomy and gloomy?  

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 19:35 | 6896458 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

CAPT DRAKE: Uh,Huh.. and speaking for Myself ONLY i think:

WE ARE IN DEEP SHIT..

might not happen for a little while longer but..

WE are going DOWN (again)

and this next time is going to make 08'/09' look like a walk in the park..

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 20:12 | 6896671 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Eventually the gargantuan debts come due. All the demand has been pulled forward and current capacity created by the easy credit (debt, if you're on the wrong side of that equation) is way in excess of what's really needed. Hence, an unwind is coming. The only problem is when. Please, Mr. Insider, sir, please tell me when.

Tue, 12/08/2015 - 20:47 | 6896863 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

CAN YOU COUNT?

Get your heads out into the light, and see your track record:
http://showrealhist.com/yTRIAL.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!