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Wholesale Inventories Sink Q4 GDP Hope, Sales-Ratio Signals Looming Recession
Q4 GDP expectations are off to a bad start as October wholesale inventories dropped 0.1% (missing expectations of a 0.2% rise and well down from the September surge of 0.5%). Wholesale inventories rose only 3.7% YoY, the lowest since Sept 2013 but sales have now been negative YoY since December. This leaves the crucial inventories-to-sales ratio at 1.31 - post-crisis highs, and deep in recession territory.
Leaving the absolute level of inventories over sales just shy of all-time record highs..
and the inventories to sales ratio at cycle highs...
Time for a Fed rate-hike!?
Charts: Bloomberg
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BULLISH! You bitchez already missed the dip this morning.
Right. Falling knives have been banned.
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.wallstreet34.com
Guess not huh
Got to move these refrigerators.......
Don't forget about the color TVs.
money for nothing and chicks for free...
Super bowl season is the time, if so inclined to get that new 4K flat screen. Probably a new car too, well for a 2015 that didn't sell anyway.
RATE HIKE!
Let me tell you those guys ain't dumb......
Worst that could happen? Maybe get a blister on your little finger or maybe your thumb.
Maybe get a blister on your little finger...
When the day comes and the casino closes.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2AC41dglnM
People will stand in awe to the maginitude that they have been fucked.
going to buy some SPY calls the day before, cause they'll hike rates -0.25bps
"Looming Recession" Yay, things are about to get better. Thanks Obama.
That little faggot got his own jet airplane.......
Dude, that little faggot's a millionaire.
(FYI- I could do this ALL DAY LONG. It's like an addiction for me and you're making it worse. Please knock it off or I won't be able to stop after a while.)
He got his money for sucking and his dicks for free.
the little maggot is a BILLIONAIRE
He fixed healthcare, stopped sea level rise, filled in all the pot holes and brought peace to the middle east. Is there anything that man can't do? (Hint: tell the truth)
Judging by the constant scowl on it's face he can't please a wookie.
It's not wise to upset a wookie.
"Let him have it. It's not wise to upset a Wookiee."
It is estimated that ObamaCare has cost at least 2+ million jobs already, wait till that fucking tax program hits it's stride coming into tax season.
If you like your country, you can keep your country.
All stock indicies rocking and rolling. Bonds selling off. It all makes perfect sense, now get back to work you slaves. Uncle Sammy needs YOU!
Wait, wait, wait. The peaks typically happen IN a recession, not as a leading indicator one is coming. Which means... Oh, my God, I think they may not have been telling us the whole truth about the economy!
"None of us will live long enough to see the next officially declared recession."
- NoDebt
"My ass hurts in this chair. Lets fuck the waitress."
Goerge Carlin.
Easily papered over in the new economy. Just a bump in the road.
You are correct sir. I'm just waiting for the triple seasonally adjust hookers and blow numbers to be added to GDP right before election time. If thats not enough they can throw in illegal gambling and shit that falls off of trucks.
Depression since 2000.
Recession since this past Summer or Spring.
The "R" word was banned in 2012. Please stop using it, you racist!
Didn't get the memo? Christmas was cancelled. Vacation for everyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
...a classic of our time!
Yep. I've been in business for over ten years. I am selling my inventory and only replacing about half of what I used to carry. Turning it into silver rounds, ammo, cash, and bitcoin (already have a years supply of food and everyday goods).
As businesses liquidate more and more inventory, that's stuff that is not being re-ordered. Most businesses have much more inventory than they need and it will take awhile to whittle it down. Factory orders will plummet, many a good-paying job eliminated.
Looks like a good time to get in on the immanent flight to income, capital gains and safe return of capital in treasuries. Investing in treasuries in the era of central bank insanity has been the best investment of my life.
crude plunge, so stocks rip!
BTFD! Everything is AWESOME!
"This leaves the crucial inventories-to-sales ratio at 1.31 - post-crisis highs, and deep in recession territory."
Not to worry, grasshopper...DOW doing just nicely...up 145+
Party like it was back in 1984.
ZH should not manipulate data to make its case. Here is the whole chart without the left side cut off showing current levels are the same as during the entire 90's:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2ybP
The good news is that if there is any consumer item I want, I just have to wait about two months and I can find it for 50% off.
I bet this time it really is different, it's probably worse. Seems like in the age of the just in time supply chain this excess is more excessive compared to previous recessionary environments.