"2015 Was Like Commuting By Rollercoaster" - Art Cashin Reviews The 2015 Market And Shares His 2016 Outlook

Tyler Durden's picture

When it comes to the modern market, experienced, carbon-based traders such as UBS floor director Art Cashin (who have traded through not just one rate-hike cycle but several) seem like an anacrhonism from a bygone era: after all, we live in a day and age when "traders" are nanosecond collocated servers located in ultracooled New Jersey warehouses, where the only thing that matters is responding to flashing red headlines in the fastest way possible without much thought for what the underlying data actually means.

Which is why the opinion of someone precisely like Art Cashin is all the more relevant - he brings a sense of rationality to what only central-planners can call a "market."

To that end, as Art notes, "on Tuesday night, CNBC's Bob Pisani brought a crew over to Bobby Van's to tape our annual year-end interview while I marinated some ice cubes." Here are some highlights from Cashin's interview.

First, here is a quick take on what Cashin learned about 2015: "2015 was like commuting by rollercoaster. There were heart-stopping drops, there were nearly vertical ascents, and when it was all over you got off just about where you started and it cost you money. And not only was that true of the stock market, it was true of the yield on the 10 Year. The 10 Year is virtually where it began the year."

"One of the most difficult markets in 50 years"

Cashin continues, looking at the deplorable performance by the active trading community and how nothing made sense: "If you look at the record of the hedge funds this year, they would say "annus horribilis" a really rotten year. This has been one of the most difficult markets in 50 years because usually I have to spend time to figure out what action causes what reaction and how do things fit in, and in the past several weeks it really hasn't fit, sometimes things have come completely awry. You had for example non-farm payrolls came in perfectly, all the media pundits came out and said, 'Ok, the rate hike is a lock' and what happened that day - the yield on the 10 Year plummeted. So there are inconsistencies and I think that may be due to the fact that so many people are involved in the currency and carry trade."

 

On the ongoing profit recession, Cashin says that profit margins tend to regress to the mean and that may be a problem for 2016: "You have difficulty with the multinationals between the dollar and a variety of other problems. Competition, things are beginning to slow in China but I think there'll be pressure on profit margins and that will naturally lead to pressure on earnings. Revenues will continue to be a problem. Take a great company like IBM - they haven't seen a revenue increase in 5 years. This is a very difficult time and again the multinationals - we don't know what the dollar is going to do when the Fed hikes next week as they claim they will do."

 

Finally, here is Cashin's geopolitical outlook for 2016: "You could have attacks on the middle east and the oil supply and suddenly you can have a black swan event and that could disappear instantly. You've got millions of migrants moving into Europe, very, very expensive and that could also turn into a problem. Then lastly you have  the ISIS problem."

And on the potential geopolitical black swans in the coming year: "Brazil is trying to go through an impeachment process, that could be a wildcard. Equally so Venezuela where they've had recent elections - instead of worrying about energy companies going under, you might find an entire country going under. Venezuela might not be able to produce anything. I am quite worried about Europe that the extreme right wing is picking up on what happened in Paris. If that happens the whole Euro and the Eurozone could come apart.

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Squid Viscous's picture

then Art marinated his depends, and it was time to wrap things up...

Syrin's picture

The guy is too optimistic

Chupacabra-322's picture

2016 more Anal fist fucking by the Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES , CORP. INC.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Art on the BlowHorn? Seriously Tyler?

LOL...

GartmansTaint's picture
GartmansTaint (not verified) Dec 10, 2015 2:44 PM

If you know Art personally like I do, you would know that he is really a class act. Good man.  Pisani is a doosh

Dr. Spin's picture

Gartman's got a taint???

Spoctor Din

GartmansTaint's picture
GartmansTaint (not verified) Dr. Spin Dec 10, 2015 3:13 PM

Yes and it speaks... more intelligently than him.

lordbyroniv's picture

Yup.  Classiest Illuminati foot soldier out there.

[rolls eyes]

oddjob's picture

Art's support for Grasso's $200,000,000.00 payoff was really classy.

SILVERGEDDON's picture

Wall Street Las Vegas.

First, casino.

Roulette, blackjack, poker.

Then, slot machines.

Then, roller coaster to shake out loose change.

Then, back to hotel for the rest of the weekend, trying to find hookers who take credit cards.

All of your monies belong to us !

My condensed version of a year end report on the market.

Nid's picture

...the whole Euro and the Eurozone could come apart.

Wrong, Art. I has already come apart. What could happen is that the Germans decided to stop paying a ransom to keep up the appearence that it's still together. 

.National Suicide 1980's picture

"2015 was like commuting by rollercoaster..."

 

And 2016 will be like falling off of Mt Everest.

 

And who is this Pissassie guy?

Dr. Engali's picture

He had me until he said "extreme right wing in Paris". I guess that anybody who believes anything opposing .gov is an extreme right wing nut job.

Bay of Pigs's picture

He works for that stinking shitpile UBS. He hasn't told the truth in years. Obviously he knows the score, yet dances around pretending to tell us how it is in the markets and around the world.

Yeah, okay Art. Got it.

lester1's picture

Art looks stressed out. I think he knows a major crash is about to occur.

Goldbugger's picture

Bob Piss on E. LOL

Shit on ya , Shit on ya in Russian it means i love you.

Piss on ya  , Piss on ya in Russion it mean i care.

 

Shit on ya all Day , Piss on ya all Night.

Boubou's picture

I never heard him this apocalyptic. Something's up.

Thomas Sowell's picture

Piss off last 6% of the calendar year festival of lights is on and were calling it year end.

vesna's picture

Fucking Cashin told us on CNBC in 2010 that market is strong sell. He still speaks public? Bull shit. Where is the Indian guy who was talking about sugar high? (Ex Pimco sucker)