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Has NYC Real Estate Peaked? Manhattan Vacancies Hit 9-Year High
First it was Australia (closest to China), then Miami, then London, and now New York appears to have been hit by the sudden withdrawal of a bid-at-any-price, stash-my-cash, launder-my-money foreign flood of money to buy real estate. Manhattan apartment vacancies reached their highest level in more than nine years, according top broker Miller-Samuel, a sign that the post-recession run-up in rents may begin to cool. "We're reaching the point where things can't go up as much," Miller said in an interview. "The economics don't make much sense anymore." Did they ever?
Just a month ago, we remarked, with the luxury bubbles in Australia and London popped and soon to be in tatters, we sit back and wait to see how long before it crosses the Atlantic, and such real abominations of the second housing bubble as Million Dollar Listing, can finally meet the fate of Wall Street Warriors.
And now we know, as Bloomberg reports,
The vacancy rate in November was 2.87 percent, up from 2.31 percent a year earlier and the highest since August 2006, according to a report Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. Landlords eager to fill empty units lured tenants with the most concessions since 2011.
The rise in vacancies suggests tenants are reaching the upper limits of what they’re able to pay after more than four years of almost continuous rent growth, according to Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. In November, the median monthly apartment rent climbed 3.9 percent from a year earlier to $3,361. Leasing costs have jumped more than 18 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.
“We’re reaching the point where things can’t go up as much,” Miller said in an interview. “The economics don’t make much sense anymore.”
...
“The conditions that are driving rents higher haven’t changed,” Miller said. “What’s changed is the acceptance of it, the affordability of it.”
The luxury-apartment market, the top 10 percent of all rentals by price, was the only category with a decline in prices. The median rent in November fell 1.4 percent to $8,537.
“Complaining about high rents in Manhattan is nothing new, but now it’s becoming more visceral to tenants,” said Miller, who’s been tracking the apartment market since 1991.
“We’re hitting the point where affordability is really becoming a much bigger issue than it has been in the past.”
So what market's property bubble explodes next?
benchmark U.K. government bonds.
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Oy Vey!
dual passport crew gettin' outta DODGESTEINBERGVILLE
And those boys are flipping burgers soon.
i dont know. judging by their looks i'd say they're turning tricks at the local steam bath club
all together now... 1, 2, 3, HOMO!
They look so fake, they could be computer-animated.
Turns out one of them has already done porn - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fredrik_Eklund
Gay porn to be precise. Lots of customers in NYC.
The reason Trump is running for President without spending $ doing it?
Forget NYC. Let me know when Hawaii tanks!
Daddy needs a beachfront mansion, a red Ferrari, a major domo and two Dobermans!
Note, "Manhattan" vacancies. Everyone is moving further out into Brooklyn, Queens, Jersey while there's still a small savings and more space.
Do the "vacancies" include units that were bought by out-of-towners (like from a different country kind of out of town) but nobody ever lives there?
I just want to know if the Gay Guy had his baby yet.
if he had a son; it would look like b hussein homobama
You know the funny part about watching today's -300 point loss on the DOW, no one gives a flying fuck like they did back in 08, you know why NO ONE IS PLAYING THE MANIPULATION GAME NO MORE!... or cares!
A whole LOT of things are going to change as the cheap money starts to dry up.
I thought the title said Vaccines... I was thinking, well that makes sense! No more codine for DG today.
California headed down once the Chinese realize they were taken the same as the Japanese with Hawaii.
Step on up and get financially rapped Shanghai Shen!
Get taken again like those Chinese ghost cities.
Just "flip" it. Sell it before it goes down!
All the rich Chinese seem to be heading to jail , Vancouver is fuuuucked
or going to unknown whereabouts. where ever the heck that is.
It's the best it's ever been for Vancouver realtors, and the best is yet to come.
British Columbians who have to pay their Vancouver housing costs out of the little wage income they still enjoy, not so much.
Renting isn’t getting any cheaper, analysts say
9 December 2015, by Andrea Riquier (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/renting-isnt-getting-any-cheaper-analys...
Rental Prices Are Less Affordable Than Ever
9 December 2015, by Patrick Clark (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-09/rental-prices-are-less...
If Trump wins the presidency his properties should appreciate quite a bit no matter what the market does. Hmm, could he be running for office just to hedge his investments?
It may add to the entertainment value if he were to be elected and go bankrupt while in office. At least, I think it would be funny. Might as well have a president and the nation go bankrupt together.
Again. How many times has Trump had to go hat in hand to The Banksters because he wws bankrupt? Ans: More than once.
doubt that. with the popping off he's done about muslims... his overseas properties are going to take a beating.
Are they going to have an episode of Flip a Fairy where they all cry as the bubble implodes? People should be out of all these bubble markets by now, unless you got in dirt cheap, you know it's going to collapse and plan on riding it through.
PCT demonstrates circular causation in a negative feedback loop closed through the environment. This fundamentally contradicts the classical notion of linear causation of behavior by stimuli, in which environmental stimuli are thought to cause behavioral responses, mediated (according to Cognitive Psychology) by intervening cognitive processes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptual_control_theory
The crack down on money exports from China first hit the Gaming industry in Macau. Now it is hitting real estate.
In about 2 more years you will be able to buy all those same properties for 60% less than what the Chinese paid.
New York shitty high end real estate needs Syrian Refugees(tm) to pump-your-Ponzi-up, America.
Deflation Inflation works like known unknowns do.
Vacant? But it's so 'cool' to own a 20 million dollar apartment! Why can't I feel sorry for the 'vacant' part? Wonder what they'll be worth when they're radioactive?
Well, lads, you were the ones who insisted Riyadh send oil to USD40 and below.
Wealthy Russian patriots, who no longer feel welcome in the States and whose ruble doesn't go nearly as far any more outside Russia, have better things to spend their money on than rent on a Manhattan apartment. Russia's rich fifth-columnists have voted with their feet, and already are living in bug-outs bought long ago. Everyone who remains is willing to live with the fact that in Putin's Russia rich people are not above the law, and behave accordingly.
Meanwhile, the Chinese can simply head to Vancouver, where real estate has gotten a lot cheaper for people paying in USD thanks to the collapse in the loonie.
Not their fault you didn't think your plan through the whole way.
Do you mean that laying off and firing tens of thousands of bonus-baby bankers might have an effect on apartment prices? Why can't those laid off workers find a $15 an hour job at McDonalds, or open up their own hot dog cart and stay in New York?
No coincidence that London and Hong Kong are the 2 markets where commie monopoly money washes up first. In Hong Kong they can actually cross the border with their suitcases stuffed with cash.
Wake me up when Hong Kong crashes.
Has NYC real estate peaked?
AH OOGA AH OOGA AH OOGA
I recognize Jumbotron and tarabel in the photo, but who's the little, short fellow with the pompadour?
We're on our 3rd...and final...tour in NYC.
Been back since early 2013. Leaving for good mid 2016.
Two times before late 80's and 99-02.
NYC was always shithole. Dirty, crowded, dangerous.
The only saving grace was business. It's always been a great place to earn.
Not anymore.
The middle is gone. Only trust fund kiddies and the working poor left.
If you own RE I suggest you sell.
If you own a business I suggest you relocate.
I've got 7 months left on the contract and we are out for good.
I've been very nervous this last time....lots of tension, hate, anger about....steam in a kettle.
I'll be very very happy when we are gone.
Cheers Bitchez!
Foreigners own huge chunks of NYC. its not going anywhere any time soon, there's a niagra falls sized flood of trade deficit dollars coming back to the USA. There will not be a tablespoon of dirt for Americans to buy.
J.P. Morgan analysts wrote that the three best leading indicators for recession have been credit spreads, the shape of the yield curve and profit margins.
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Investors in high-yield bonds are expecting to see their first negative return since the start of the credit crisis in 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deteriorating-junk-bonds-flash-warning-signs-for-stocks-2015-12-07?dist=afterbell
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Guess they're running out of billionaire arab and chinese crooks looking to stash stolen money in US real estate.