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"Inconvenient Truth" Chart Of The Day
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
The three quotes below sum up my views on the chart below.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” - Aldous Huxley
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” - Aldous Huxley
“Sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of consequences” - Robert Louis Stevenson
The stock market is the most overvalued in history.
You’ve been warned.
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"Taxes Consequences are for the little people." - Leona Helmsley
Speaking of little people.....
Paging Million Dollar Douchebag; How's that awesome stawk potfolio of yours doing these daze?
Legend has it he's one of ZH top sarcastic commenter.
Upvoted you, for the % chance he actually means all he ever said here ;-)
Impossible to warn a delusional, drunken BTD'er who thinks the FED will levitate forever. So be it, need some sacrifices for the fire.
"First we kill all the banksters."
The biggest problem is that the whole financial system has become like fractional banking. In other words when the rush to the exit commences there won't be enough buyers let alone enough money to complete the transaction.
Very smart way of putting it! It is exactly that!... back in the 80's financials contributed less than 10% to the GDP. Today it is whopping 47%! Any small hiccup in financial matters will create an avalanche.
But we all have smartphones now so....yah. Everything is awesome.
An overvalued equity market fueled on devalued (printed) money? Whooda thunk?
Makes you wonder how much of that market is actually government owned. I bet a good chunk of it is on the Fed's balance sheet.
The Fed isn't a government entity.
Neither am I and you?
Really?.......Thats an interesting take, since politicians appoint their members, and The FED bases its decisions, on a lot of politics....
Really?
All Federal Reserve shares are owned by member banks.
All Fed members "appointed by the Government" are "owned" by the member banks.
And the police exist to protect and serve the average person.
Markets can remain irrational longer than any poster on ZH can remain solvent.
I'm still waiting to buy the SP 450 dip. That is if the computers are up and running during nuclear winter.
cherry picked... Shiller PE much higher in 2000, same with Q ratio. Chicken Little was a shitty trader.
"cherry picked... Shiller PE much higher in 2000, same with Q ratio. Chicken Little was a shitty trader."
Schiller PE is currently at 25. Mean is 17. Market would need to drop about a third to return to the historical mean. Is that not substantial overvaluation? Or am I just cherry picking?
he said it was the most overvalued in history which it ain't. Truth is the overall market doesn't matter except to index traders. NFLX is overvalued, CMI is undervalued and so it goes. overall the market is expensive right now and dry powder is a beautiful thing but nameless fear isn't...and now back to our regularly scheduled panic attack.
"madness in individuals is rare, in crowds it's the norm... (paraphrased from Nietsche).
Ned Davis Research... you need to go behind the outhouse and have your ass horse whipped...it is not nice to scare all the boys and girls on Wall Street with your chart of truth...damn it.. it is Christmas... wait I just remembered...on Wall Street they spell Christmas as $$$mas...ok...just as Jack Nicholson once said..."Wall Street cannot handle the truth"
There is always competition for investors dollars. What were the interest rates during those two earlier periods? What are they now? Until interest rates rise sufficiently to offer investors an alternative to stocks.....stocks will continue to be overvalued vs prior periods.
The overvaluation is not about prior periods but about yields. The old rule of thuimb is 14 TIMES PROFIT. You do not have to stick to that at all, pay more for good companies, even more for real good companies, and less for inbuilt risk. Be prepared to be burnt if you forget about this completely.
There 's just a lot of capital out there because people are supposed to save for their retirement. In prior periods you'd pay to the government or a large insurance/government organisation who'd then use the funds for infrastructure which facilitated business and jobs. You could rely on the fact that you'd get that pension at survival level plus something. Now every amateur is in the capital market, infrastructure takes too long to yield - chaos and losses rule.
There is always competition for investors dollars. What were the interest rates during those two earlier periods? What are they now? Until interest rates rise sufficiently to offer investors an alternative to stocks.....stocks will continue to be overvalued vs prior periods.
stateside,,, ceratinly you mean real interest rates
I got a nice old quote, too:
"We woke up this morning to see Russia declared a Republic. What difference does it make what form the government will be as long as there is order and justice?" From the diaries of Grandduke Michael Alexandrovich Romanov (1878 - 1918)
There are apparently a lot of people in the west that don't agree with this statement!
Until they bring back "Mark to Market" the only thing that matters is all the trillions the FED has printed up and given to the boyz. That money gets burned up a little bit every day. One day, that money will be gone and this market will implode. Until then, stay the fuck away.
They need the market to implode; they need all that fiat they printed to return to the nothingness from whence it sprang -or face the hyperinflation it will cause when the 'profits' go in search of real goods and services. They just want to get their chestnuts out of the fire first -which is why they push the 'everything is awesome' narrative so hard, you can only get your nuts out of the fire if you can find some sucker to buy them. Fortunately for them; if they do not get out in time, there is always the sucker on the Potomac willing to shill out Your hard-earned and rescue them post-hoc.
Ilium fuit, Washington est.